Simple Backtesting

[asdvender]

Hey all,

I had some time on my hands and went back the last 3 years in the NBA (also did playoffs only backtesting) to see what the results were regarding covering of spreads and over/unders.

*Blindly of course, not considering injuries, suspensions, etc.

I thought I would share the results and see if someone wanted to or already had the numbers...

I am actually still finishing up the analysis, but I thought I would post this to see if anyone could begin the process to calculate their results or start by the time I post later tonight.

Thanks!

[asdvender]

I know this was probably the dumbest idea, but hell...I was bored. So anyhow here are my results...

Percentages represents the percentage that category covered the spread.

--------------------
04-05 Season...

HOME: 48%
AWAY: 49%
PUSH: 3%

FAVORITE: 49%
UNDERDOG: 48%
PUSH: 3%

HOME/FAVORITE: 48%
AWAY/UNDERDOG: 48%
PUSH: 4%

HOME/UNDERDOG: 44%
AWAY/FAVORITE: 46%
PUSH: 10%

OVER: 50%
UNDER: 49%
PUSH: 1%

--------------------
05-06 Season...

HOME: 48%
AWAY: 50%
PUSH: 2%

FAVORITE: 48%
UNDERDOG: 50%
PUSH: 2%

HOME/FAVORITE: 47%
AWAY/UNDERDOG: 50%
PUSH: 3%

HOME/UNDERDOG: 45%
AWAY/FAVORITE: 47%
PUSH: 8%

OVER: 50%
UNDER: 49%
PUSH: 1%

--------------------
06-07 Season...

HOME: 46%
AWAY: 51%
PUSH: 2%

FAVORITE: 47%
UNDERDOG: 51%
PUSH: 2%

HOME/FAVORITE: 45%
AWAY/UNDERDOG: 51%
PUSH: 3%

HOME/UNDERDOG: 45%
AWAY/FAVORITE: 47%
PUSH: 8%

OVER: 51%
UNDER: 49%
PUSH: 1%

--------------------
07-08 Season...

HOME: 49%
AWAY: 49%
PUSH: 1%

FAVORITE: 51%
UNDERDOG: 47%
PUSH: 1%

HOME/FAVORITE: 50%
AWAY/UNDERDOG: 48%
PUSH: 2%

HOME/UNDERDOG: 45%
AWAY/FAVORITE: 50%
PUSH: 4%

OVER: 49%
UNDER: 50%
PUSH: 1%

--------------------
--------------------
--------------------

04-08 Seasons...

HOME: 48%
AWAY: 49%
PUSH: 3%

FAVORITE: 49%
UNDERDOG: 49%
PUSH: 3%

HOME/FAVORITE: 48%
AWAY/UNDERDOG: 49%
PUSH: 4%

HOME/UNDERDOG: 44%
AWAY/FAVORITE: 47%
PUSH: 9%

OVER: 50%
UNDER: 49%
PUSH: 1%

--------------------
--------------------
--------------------

So...in the end, not surprising, there is no relationship to home/away or underdog/favorite in the covering of spreads or over/under...damn! Was hoping for a 55% somewhere!

[Arnold]

So...in the end, not surprising, there is no relationship to home/away or underdog/favorite in the covering of spreads or over/under...damn! Was hoping for a 55% somewhere!

If only it was that easy. Lol.

[asdvender]

Here are the my NBA Playoff results...

--------------------
2005-2007 Playoffs...

HOME: 50%
AWAY: 46%
PUSH: 4%

FAVORITE: 50%
UNDERDOG: 47%
PUSH: 4%

HOME/FAVORITE: 50%
AWAY/UNDERDOG: 46%
PUSH: 4%

HOME/UNDERDOG: 43%
AWAY/FAVORITE: 42%
PUSH: 15%

OVER: 49%
UNDER: 49%
PUSH: 1%

--------------------
2005-2007 Playoffs...EASTERN CONFERENCE

HOME: 47%
AWAY: 48%
PUSH: 5%

FAVORITE: 46%
UNDERDOG: 49%
PUSH: 5%

HOME/FAVORITE: 45%
AWAY/UNDERDOG: 48%
PUSH: 7%

HOME/UNDERDOG: 42%
AWAY/FAVORITE: 39%
PUSH: 18%

OVER: 47%
UNDER: 50%
PUSH: 3%

--------------------
2005-2007 Playoffs...WESTERN CONFERENCE

HOME: 51%
AWAY: 46%
PUSH: 3%

FAVORITE: 52%
UNDERDOG: 45%
PUSH: 3%

HOME/FAVORITE: 52%
AWAY/UNDERDOG: 45%
PUSH: 3%

HOME/UNDERDOG: 42%
AWAY/FAVORITE: 46%
PUSH: 13%

OVER: 51%
UNDER: 48%
PUSH: 1%

--------------------
2005-2007 Playoffs...1ST ROUNDS

HOME: 48%
AWAY: 47%
PUSH: 5%

FAVORITE: 52%
UNDERDOG: 43%
PUSH: 5%

HOME/FAVORITE: 50%
AWAY/UNDERDOG: 43%
PUSH: 7%

HOME/UNDERDOG: 34%
AWAY/FAVORITE: 47%
PUSH: 18%

OVER: 49%
UNDER: 48%
PUSH: 3%

--------------------
--------------------
--------------------

Once again, nothing of a trend...also only sampled the last three NBA Playoffs...just thought I'd post, because I had always wondered!

[Arnold]

Dude, seriously, you're wasting your time.

[LT Profits]

Since 1990-91 Playoffs: Post-Season teams going UNDER after 3+ OVERS: 143-111-7, 56.3%.

[rake922]

Here are the my NBA Playoff results...

--------------------
2005-2007 Playoffs...

HOME: 50%
AWAY: 46%
PUSH: 4%

FAVORITE: 50%
UNDERDOG: 47%
PUSH: 4%

HOME/FAVORITE: 50%
AWAY/UNDERDOG: 46%
PUSH: 4%

HOME/UNDERDOG: 43%
AWAY/FAVORITE: 42%
PUSH: 15%

OVER: 49%
UNDER: 49%
PUSH: 1%

--------------------
2005-2007 Playoffs...EASTERN CONFERENCE

HOME: 47%
AWAY: 48%
PUSH: 5%

FAVORITE: 46%
UNDERDOG: 49%
PUSH: 5%

HOME/FAVORITE: 45%
AWAY/UNDERDOG: 48%
PUSH: 7%

HOME/UNDERDOG: 42%
AWAY/FAVORITE: 39%
PUSH: 18%

OVER: 47%
UNDER: 50%
PUSH: 3%

--------------------
2005-2007 Playoffs...WESTERN CONFERENCE

HOME: 51%
AWAY: 46%
PUSH: 3%

FAVORITE: 52%
UNDERDOG: 45%
PUSH: 3%

HOME/FAVORITE: 52%
AWAY/UNDERDOG: 45%
PUSH: 3%

HOME/UNDERDOG: 42%
AWAY/FAVORITE: 46%
PUSH: 13%

OVER: 51%
UNDER: 48%
PUSH: 1%

--------------------
2005-2007 Playoffs...1ST ROUNDS

HOME: 48%
AWAY: 47%
PUSH: 5%

FAVORITE: 52%
UNDERDOG: 43%
PUSH: 5%

HOME/FAVORITE: 50%
AWAY/UNDERDOG: 43%
PUSH: 7%

HOME/UNDERDOG: 34%
AWAY/FAVORITE: 47%
PUSH: 18%

OVER: 49%
UNDER: 48%
PUSH: 3%

--------------------
--------------------
--------------------

Once again, nothing of a trend...also only sampled the last three NBA Playoffs...just thought I'd post, because I had always wondered!

18% of the time there was a push? thats way too high

[asdvender]

Yea, I thought 10% of the time was too high, then I saw the 18% later and kinda just shut up...

By the way, it wasn't so much a waste of time, because after I had the formulas set in Excel, I just dropped in the data and it spit the results out to me...

7 games of the 38 that were possible for that category (38) pushed...that came to 18%, but it seems reasonable. I guess oddsmakers turn up their game and hit their spreads at a higher rate in playoffs?!

[asdvender]

Since 1990-91 Playoffs: Post-Season teams going UNDER after 3+ OVERS: 143-111-7, 56.3%.

I know I'm probably wasting my time...but I looked into LT's comment and although I don't have the data from 1990-1991 playoffs, I did look at the last three years, since I already had the data...

--------------------
O/O/U: 18/44 (41%)
U/U/O: 14/39 (36%)
Bucking the trend: 32/83 (39%)

O/O/O/U: 7/15 (47%)
U/U/U/O: 6/17 (35%)
Bucking the trend: 13/32 (41%)
--------------------

I know it's only three years of data, but it does hint that betting against the trend could be costly.