Question about Vegas and the Mavs -1 spread

[Pap45murF]

So let's say Vegas, with their uber capping skillz, decides the Mavs will win this by a point (which they did decide, given the spread). Why would Vegas not put this game at -4 or -5, KNOWING that 80% of the public will still think the line is too generous and pound the Mavs. Then when the Mavs win by 1 as predicted, Vegas makes a ton of money.

My point is, what is Vegas trying to say with a -1 line?

[forzuto13]

I think one factor is that they just lost a game by one point to a strong home team. There is the in-state rivalry to note as well. Also Houston lost three in a row recently against Dallas, San Antonio and the Lakers, then responded with solid wins over Utah, Memphis and Denver. I think Dallas learned an important lesson with their last game at Denver and will make sure to finish out the game if they are indeed up. Line is about right I'd say, giving home team three points makes Dallas -4 faves. I'm liking the Dallas play. Don't care about trap talk. Dallas comes back focused.

[telespectatorul]

rockets will take this

[STAY STRONG]

dangerous game....no play for me

[suicidekings]

So let's say Vegas, with their uber capping skillz, decides the Mavs will win this by a point (which they did decide, given the spread). Why would Vegas not put this game at -4 or -5, KNOWING that 80% of the public will still think the line is too generous and pound the Mavs. Then when the Mavs win by 1 as predicted, Vegas makes a ton of money.

My point is, what is Vegas trying to say with a -1 line?

80% of the public on the Dallas spread is not equivalent to 80% of the money on Dallas. Houston backers are playing the ML as the +1 has little value. The small spread is for a lot of reasons. Dallas is tired. This is going to be their 7th game in 11 days, with most of them being on the road, while Houston is playing on 3 days rest. The Mavs have won both games in Dallas this year and the Rockets will be extra motivated to win in front of the home crowd in Houston.

[demens]

80% of the public on the Dallas spread is not equivalent to 80% of the money on Dallas. Houston backers are playing the ML as the +1 has little value. The small spread is for a lot of reasons. Dallas is tired. This is going to be their 7th game in 11 days, with most of them being on the road, while Houston is playing on 3 days rest. The Mavs have won both games in Dallas this year and the Rockets will be extra motivated to win in front of the home crowd in Houston.

You're on the Rox?

[ParlayKing]

Dallas struggles versus good shooting teams. But Dallas should walk away with this one.

[kaijunn]

i played dallas even though i know rockets are very capable of winning this. rockets have not played a game since TUESDAY! which was a home game loss against the wolves, and mavs have been on the road for the past 2 games and tonight will be number 3. it makes sense that the line is only mavs -1.5 because of how much time off the rockets had to prepare and rest for today's in-state rival game. with 4 days off, there should be no excuses to lose the next game for the rockets. yes, dallas is the better team but rockets have beaten elite teams this season, so it will be no surprise if they win tonight.

[suicidekings]

You're on the Rox?

Not yet, but I will be, most likely. Dallas is in a bad spot tonight. The Rockets are ready and waiting.

[lunchbawks]

im on dallas

i have been taking the "bait" all season long with dallas on the road, it's worked out pretty well.

[No coincidences]

I think the Rockets win.

[demens]

Not yet, but I will be, most likely. Dallas is in a bad spot tonight. The Rockets are ready and waiting.

Why a bad spot? Cause of the 7 in 11? Thats not that unusual.

[Pauulzcappin]

Not talking about this game, just in general... why do people think the rockets are a good team?

[celtics3388]

the play is the over, anything can happen with the sides on this one

[nj6]

Vegas is leaning toward the rockets that way :

[suicidekings]

Why a bad spot? Cause of the 7 in 11? Thats not that unusual.

Sure, it's not that uncommon. But that doesn't make it a desirable spot to be in for the Mavs. On the flip side, the Rockets are coming off an embarassing home loss and have had 3 days to prepare for this game. They're going to come to play.

[lunchbawks]

Not talking about this game, just in general... why do people think the rockets are a good team?

1 They're in the west
2 Great home team
3 Aaron Brooks
4 Luis Scola

[Pauulzcappin]

1 They're in the west
2 Great home team
3 Aaron Brooks
4 Luis Scola

1. 11th in the west? big fukking deal
2. again. Wiz have pretty much the same record at home
3.
4. I'll take this one.

You can do better than this.

[demens]

Not talking about this game, just in general... why do people think the rockets are a good team?

Because they have a ton of talent of the roster and a great coach.

They are a good team, injuries have killed them though. If Brooks got back to the level he was on last year they'd be top 5 in the west imo.

[Pauulzcappin]

Brooks is obviously lost out there and pissed that he's a reserve. Teams that can't play defense can't go anywhere. Rox are one of those teams.

I concur that Rick is a great coach though.

[demens]

They were one of the best defensive teams in the league 2 years ago, under Adeleman. The most significant change from then was Artest leaving and obviously Yao. Last year they dropped off, by where still in the middle of the pack (17th d.rat).

This year is hard to explain. Its the same guys, they are just not in form. I think the injuries have taken a huge hit on them. After Yao, his back-up Miller missed 15 games, then his back-up Hayes missed another 8. Brooks missed a bunch of games and his back-up Lowry came into the season hurt. They have the players to be great defensively. Hayes, Battier, Lee, Lowry are all top notch defensive players. But i think it starts with Brooks and the way he has regressed this year, mostly cause he can't get healthy.

[suicidekings]

Not talking about this game, just in general... why do people think the rockets are a good team?

They shoot a lot (4th in FG attempts, 5th in 3pt attempts, and 5th in FT attempts) and rank 5th in assists per game. However in pretty much every other category, they're average at best. They don't get defensive stops, allowing a ton of shots every game, so they have a hard time pulling away from opponents in games and/or maintaining a lead despite their strong shooting.

So I would say they're not a bad team. Just very one dimensional.

[Adr3nalin3 Ru5h]

Mavs lose... Everytime theirs a +1/-1 spread i always take the +1 (especially if its a home dog)

[BayArea888]

1 They're in the west 2 Great home team 3 Aaron Brooks 4 Luis Scola

5. kevin martin

[baldur]

you are a genius. so take houston ml and be rich.

[swaindexter]

Should be a good game to watch..........

[baldur]

dallas won. i think you don't have to try to figure out meaning of lines. conspiracy theories doesn't work every time.

[face]

yea, more talk about players and whos hot, less vegas line movement stuff

[madrabbit]

Not yet, but I will be, most likely. Dallas is in a bad spot tonight. The Rockets are ready and waiting.

you're pathetic.

[madrabbit]

yea, more talk about players and whos hot, less vegas line movement stuff

exactly as I said in a thread about this game about some fool worrying about the line movement and going to place his bet according to it. What a joke! Let's go put 10k on a game because of line movement. If people can't bet for themselves and don't bet according to form most of the time then they're a ******* idiot who shouldn't be gambling.

[himeshforex]

guys my view is vegas itself cannot predict any fricking sureshot winners themselves ,a ll they can do is juice up lines and pray that the public bets them and the team looses, go for value guys , it pays in the long run

[Pauulzcappin]

Rockets are not a good team like I said. Still pissed I missed Dallas.

[swaindexter]

Too easy for the Mavs...nice win