Been reading alot of post and threads in this forum the last few days. It is comical to say the least. Over 90% of you need to take what you think you know and scrap it completely. If you are down on the NBA season what you are doing is not working. If you are making money than you have a clue. I read the words "trap" "rigged" "fixed" here daily. I read about "sharp" money all day long as if there are TONS of sharps betting. The truth is MOST people lose gambling. Most people lose because they have no idea what they are doing. I read about "head fakes" on line moves and I read about "SHARP" line moves. The majority of it all is just noise and completely false. VEGAS DOES NOT HAVE TO TRICK ANYBODY! They have a built in advantage called the "vig" or "juice". Has any games been rigged? Sure. Is any of the line moves SHARP money? Sure. Is any of the line moves "head fakes"? Sure. But you and I will never have any way of knowing. You may suspect it but you will never actually know. I noticed anytime a "better" team is on the road and slightly favored many of you think it is a "TRAP" That is false. The bookmakers don't have to trap people to win. The difference in home/away is factored in the line and accounts for about 3 pts in the NBA give or take. So next time when you see a "TRAP" ask yourself after you add 6 pts to the trap team to account for what the line would be if the team was at home would that be accurate. Would there be value either way or is the line "sharp"
Today for instance I have read a dozen or so Cleveland Cavs threads saying VEGAS KNOWS
because they are now favored. Complete bullshit. The opener was Detroit -2 so if you flip the game and make Detroit the home team linesmakers are saying Detroit would have opened at -8 at home tonite. Last I checked Detroit was not worthy of being 8 pt home favorites over anybody and that includes the Cavs. Cavs are undervalued and "SHARP" money as you all like to say have bet them accordingly. Many people bet large amounts of money and that does not make them SHARP. Not everybody is a peon in this world. Some people bet large money that know very little and collectively they can move lines.
Gambling successfully in the NBA is challenging enough as it is. No need in making it harder by seeing an Indian behind every bush. All the bullshit about RLM, Sharp money, Public money, "head fakes" is just noise and you are making something hard even harder.
You need to give Vegas/linesmakers credit. They are obviously very good at what they do and more times than not put out a very sharp/accurate line. Vegas has models, statistical db's,etc.. Actually, I have no clue what all they have to there disposal, but I do know not one man is sitting around hanging numbers. The numbers are computer generated by man's input.
Bottomline, many of you need to get back to the basics of handicapping 101.
1) Understand the situation
2) Understand team current form
3) Handicap the game so you know value and bet the line accordingly
4) Last, but not least. Bet good numbers. If you can beat closers you will have a leg up. Use multiple books offshore and locals so you are always betting the best numbers you can.
At the end of the days games check sbr odds and look at the line movements for all totals and spreads and see what the difference was between winning,losing, and pushing. You will be shocked at how close many games per week come down to the number and the difference between winning and losing was the number you played.
I have DB's that prove almost everything over time is 50/50 on the closing number. What separates you from winning and losing is beating the closer unless you are a very skilled handicapper and there are only a handful of those around.
Just check Covers ATS numbers for NBA this season agaisnt the closers.
covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/trends/league/season.html
Nothing is profitable just blind betting it. You have to know something and beat closers.
Today for instance I have read a dozen or so Cleveland Cavs threads saying VEGAS KNOWS
because they are now favored. Complete bullshit. The opener was Detroit -2 so if you flip the game and make Detroit the home team linesmakers are saying Detroit would have opened at -8 at home tonite. Last I checked Detroit was not worthy of being 8 pt home favorites over anybody and that includes the Cavs. Cavs are undervalued and "SHARP" money as you all like to say have bet them accordingly. Many people bet large amounts of money and that does not make them SHARP. Not everybody is a peon in this world. Some people bet large money that know very little and collectively they can move lines.Gambling successfully in the NBA is challenging enough as it is. No need in making it harder by seeing an Indian behind every bush. All the bullshit about RLM, Sharp money, Public money, "head fakes" is just noise and you are making something hard even harder.
You need to give Vegas/linesmakers credit. They are obviously very good at what they do and more times than not put out a very sharp/accurate line. Vegas has models, statistical db's,etc.. Actually, I have no clue what all they have to there disposal, but I do know not one man is sitting around hanging numbers. The numbers are computer generated by man's input.
Bottomline, many of you need to get back to the basics of handicapping 101.
1) Understand the situation
2) Understand team current form
3) Handicap the game so you know value and bet the line accordingly
4) Last, but not least. Bet good numbers. If you can beat closers you will have a leg up. Use multiple books offshore and locals so you are always betting the best numbers you can.
At the end of the days games check sbr odds and look at the line movements for all totals and spreads and see what the difference was between winning,losing, and pushing. You will be shocked at how close many games per week come down to the number and the difference between winning and losing was the number you played.
I have DB's that prove almost everything over time is 50/50 on the closing number. What separates you from winning and losing is beating the closer unless you are a very skilled handicapper and there are only a handful of those around.
Just check Covers ATS numbers for NBA this season agaisnt the closers.
covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/trends/league/season.html
Nothing is profitable just blind betting it. You have to know something and beat closers.
