I use a local with an online site and the Bulls/Warriors game was taken off the board. I don't see any injury info. Anyone know what's up? Thanks.
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Monta Ellis has diarrhea.Comment -
lol really??Originally posted by demensComment -
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Stomach problems/Stomach virus/Upset stomach...sounds like diarrhea to me. Missed shoot around.Comment -
He's been crying about not making the all star team too...Comment -
Any word on if he's playing?Comment -
Yep...I believe he is...which explain why the line jumped a point about an hour ago.Comment -
The line has moved out to 4 so i'm gonna try and play the middle.
Bulls win by 3 or 4 are my best results.Assuming i've calculated it right haha. Good luck.Comment -
Originally posted by ugabooga
Ehh, what? The line was never under 3 and there is no middle between 3 and 4 guy. Are you stupid or just crazy, because this is throwing money away.Comment -
Oh shit, this is what i've got...let me know if i've f*cked upOriginally posted by demens
My bets-
$67 Bulls –3
$33 Bulls –3.5
$100 GSW +4
$200 outlay
If Bulls win by 2 or lose, return Bet3 = +191
If Bulls win by 3, B1 push, B3 pays = 67 + 191 = +258
If Bulls win by 4, B1 + B2, B3 push = +291
If Bulls win by 5+, B1 + B2 = 191
Risking 9 to win $58 or $91Comment -
Thats taking a huge punt mate, good luckComment -
Have i got my numbers wrong? Man i'm tripping out...as far as i can see, i'm risking $9 to win up to $91?Comment -
Originally posted by ugabooga
So the most you can possibly make is $91 and you have to hope the game ends in a 4 point Bulls win. You can also make $58 if the Bulls win by exactly 3. ANY OTHER SCORE and you are losing money.
No offense but this might be the dumbest bet i've ever seen someone make.Comment -
Yeah, expect you have about a hell freezing over' shot at winning that 91.Originally posted by ugaboogaComment -
he also forgot that if bulls win by 3 that his 2nd bet is a lossComment -
I don;t see how you can say it's dumb.
I don't play the middle, i risk $100 to win 91.
I play the middle, i risk $9 to win exactly the same amount.
I'm no Harvard scholar but it would seem playing the middle would be my better play.Comment -
Nah i didnt include any lost bets in that equation.Originally posted by Le_Donk
I'll admit that the chances of it happening are slim but i made a relatively big play on Dallas so i'm just looking to consolidate.Comment -
Originally posted by ugabooga
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Basic arithmetic....can you dig it?
I don't play the middle, i risk $100 to win 91.
I play the middle, i risk $9 to win exactly the same amount.
I've even bolded the most relevant parts for you
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Most peoples idea of a middle wouldnt be -3 and +4Comment -
No of course i know that and the chances of this happening are slim to none...but when i put it like i did 1 post up, i can't see why I don't do it. Anyway i'll probably feel a little bit of regret if Bulls cover but i guarantee i feel a whole lot more regret if i dont make the play. Each to their own i guess.Comment -
Yeah I got that part, I'm just trying to figure out why anyone would make such a stupid bet.Comment -
Why did you hedge your original bets?
Whatdo you think the result will be?Comment -
Rather than say it's stupid,...why don't u explain to me why it is so i don't make such stupid plays in the future...Originally posted by fury
In other words, explain to me why i should risk more to win exactly the same amount.
The main reason i hedged was because Ellis was confirmed a starter but more money came in for Chicago...i dunno it didn't make sense to me. I saw the hedge angle, it made sense mathematically to me so i made the play.Originally posted by hawley
Obviously a little unconvential and unlikely to happen but on pure mathematics...it made sense.
Not saying Bulls can't cover...and they probably will...just made sense to me.Comment -
Are you seriously that slow? You risk more to win the same amount because the odds of winning are about a million % better. My basic arithmetic might be off my a few % but not much. At least give yourself a chance when you middle. Playing between 3 and 4 is not middling. You have a better shot at hitting a 10 team parlay and guess what, should be right up your alley because you'll risk even less to win exactly the same amount.Originally posted by ugaboogaComment -
Read my post above, i did say the chances are slim....and to say it's the same chance of hitting 10 team parlay..surely you're taking the piss?
Next time i'll just say i cancelled my bet for a small loss..with a slight chance of winning a full bet...than use the term 'middle'...ok.,..you f*cken c*ckhead.Comment -
let me show you ( took the push % from the sbr tools section )
92,69 % of the time u lose the $ 9 ( any other score then bulls by 3 or 4 )
3,83 % of the time u win $ 25 ( bulls win by 3 )
3,48 % of the time u win $ 91 ( bulls win by 4 )
your expected return : (0,0383 *25 ) +( 0,0348 * 91 ) + (0,9269 * -9 ) = -4,8276Comment -
Thanks, yeah that looks about right. Out of curiosity, what range does it set as possible or likely outcomes? Does it take lines into consideration?Originally posted by Le_Donk
Seems like a pretty handy tool.Comment -
i think it doesnt take the line into considerationComment
