I have betted Atlanta Hawks-Toronto Raptors by mistake (1st half, OVER 101.5). I do not know those teams. What do you think about it. Should I hedge it or leave it?
Bet betted by mistake Hawks-Raptors
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LucasSBR MVP
- 12-20-05
- 1062
#1Bet betted by mistake Hawks-RaptorsTags: None -
JackSBR Rookie
- 02-21-06
- 24
#2I have it going Over 206 for the game but I can't vouch for the first half. I will say it isn't a HORRIBLE bet you made, though and seems within reason.
Good luck!Comment -
LucasSBR MVP
- 12-20-05
- 1062
#3Thanks Jack. So if nobody persuades me, I´ll leave it. It is only 100 bucks.Comment -
JayEgdarWhoSBR Sharp
- 02-04-06
- 328
#4Originally posted by LucasI have betted Atlanta Hawks-Toronto Raptors by mistake (1st half, OVER 101.5). I do not know those teams. What do you think about it. Should I hedge it or leave it?
If you've got nothing but time before now and tip, you can watch for helpful line movement and try to get out of it for something less than the full vig (5c on the dollar or less would be a nice recovery). However that line has a chance to recoil downward -- not what you need.
Or you can just throw it on the "mistakes" pile, account for it separately (don't include it in how you did for the night). If you're like me you're sure to be making more mistakes before you quit the game, and they'll likely balance out.
(And if TOR-ATL go over, it won't exactly be the first time!!)Comment -
LucasSBR MVP
- 12-20-05
- 1062
#5Thanks JayEdgar! I will watch and wait. Now I can get only the full vigExactly said not me, but bookies. As I see, the full time is going a little bit in the right direction. Half time is not moving for more than hour (at Pinny).
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Dark HorseSBR Posting Legend
- 12-14-05
- 13764
#6Take the long term approach to everything in sports betting. If you didn't intend to make the bet, cancel it; or at least hedge half the amount. Don't count on luck to bail you out. Remember that if you don't play from an edge, you're playing straight into the books hands, where your 110 dollars is worth only 100.Comment -
LucasSBR MVP
- 12-20-05
- 1062
#7Originally posted by JayEgdarWhoI hate when that happens!Comment -
LucasSBR MVP
- 12-20-05
- 1062
#8Originally posted by Dark HorseTake the long term approach to everything in sports betting. If you didn't intend to make the bet, cancel it; or at least hedge half the amount. Don't count on luck to bail you out. Remember that if you don't play from an edge, you're playing straight into the books hands, where your 110 dollars is worth only 100.Comment -
JayEgdarWhoSBR Sharp
- 02-04-06
- 328
#9You should expect to lose about half the vig for every no-advantage bet you make. (Betting a dollar on 100 coin flips at 11-10 you will be down $5 or .50 per flip.) So on a 12-cent line such as Pinny 1H hoops totals, a prudent hedge is one that results in something less a net loss of six cents per dollar on the original bet?
DH? Does that make sense? Ganchrow?Last edited by JayEgdarWho; 03-01-06, 05:04 PM.Comment -
Dark HorseSBR Posting Legend
- 12-14-05
- 13764
#10I'm just basing that on a mixture of numbers and feeling (the book has a 4.55% edge).
Real life is more than just numbers. If you lose a bet because of a dumb mistake you feel like an idiot. Better to be half an idiot. If you win it, better to profit only half, or you won't learn a thing and repeat the same mistake sooner than later.
I would cancel the bet without a second thought. If I can't play from an edge, what's the point? So what if it cost me some vig. I'll have that back soon enough.Comment -
JayEgdarWhoSBR Sharp
- 02-04-06
- 328
#11Originally posted by Dark HorseI'm just basing that on a mixture of numbers and feeling (the book has a 4.55% edge).
Real life is more than just numbers. If you lose a bet because of a dumb mistake you feel like an idiot. Better to be half an idiot. If you win it, better to profit only half, or you won't learn a thing and repeat the same mistake sooner than later.
I would cancel the bet without a second thought. If I can't play from an edge, what's the point? So what if it cost me some vig. I'll have that back soon enough.
(a) Erase the mistake, pay the pennies, and not worry about it any more.
(b) Feel like half an idiot who at least knows the percentages.
(c) Gamble.Comment -
LucasSBR MVP
- 12-20-05
- 1062
#12Originally posted by Dark HorseI would cancel the bet without a second thought.That is really March maddness.
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LucasSBR MVP
- 12-20-05
- 1062
#13Originally posted by JayEgdarWhoAgreed it's a personal choice. Would you rather:
(a) Erase the mistake, pay the pennies, and not worry about it any more.Comment -
JayEgdarWhoSBR Sharp
- 02-04-06
- 328
#14Originally posted by LucasThe odd is going down at Pinnacle, now 1.84, it has no sense to hedge it now. The net loss is about 15 dollars. I will gamble...probably. 1 and half hour left.Comment -
LucasSBR MVP
- 12-20-05
- 1062
#15Yes. Sure thing. I am looking at them, all the time - I saw happier events :-/ But althought all this all, it is fun.Comment -
LucasSBR MVP
- 12-20-05
- 1062
#16So I left it. After 1st quarter 56 pts. But they are going to be lazy...Comment -
LucasSBR MVP
- 12-20-05
- 1062
#17WOW: 102 Pt in the last second. But the nerves...Comment -
JayEgdarWhoSBR Sharp
- 02-04-06
- 328
#18There you go!
that's gambling!Comment
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