Bet betted by mistake Hawks-Raptors

Jack · 03-01-06, 04:17 PM

I have it going Over 206 for the game but I can't vouch for the first half. I will say it isn't a HORRIBLE bet you made, though and seems within reason.

Good luck!

Lucas · 03-01-06, 04:21 PM

Thanks Jack. So if nobody persuades me, I´ll leave it. It is only 100 bucks.

JayEgdarWho · 03-01-06, 04:25 PM

Originally posted by Lucas

I have betted Atlanta Hawks-Toronto Raptors by mistake (1st half, OVER 101.5). I do not know those teams. What do you think about it. Should I hedge it or leave it?

I hate when that happens!

If you've got nothing but time before now and tip, you can watch for helpful line movement and try to get out of it for something less than the full vig (5c on the dollar or less would be a nice recovery). However that line has a chance to recoil downward -- not what you need.

Or you can just throw it on the "mistakes" pile, account for it separately (don't include it in how you did for the night). If you're like me you're sure to be making more mistakes before you quit the game, and they'll likely balance out.

(And if TOR-ATL go over, it won't exactly be the first time!!)

Lucas · 03-01-06, 04:35 PM

Thanks JayEdgar! I will watch and wait. Now I can get only the full vig

Exactly said not me, but bookies. As I see, the full time is going a little bit in the right direction. Half time is not moving for more than hour (at Pinny).

Dark Horse · 03-01-06, 04:38 PM

Take the long term approach to everything in sports betting. If you didn't intend to make the bet, cancel it; or at least hedge half the amount. Don't count on luck to bail you out. Remember that if you don't play from an edge, you're playing straight into the books hands, where your 110 dollars is worth only 100.

Lucas · 03-01-06, 04:39 PM

Originally posted by JayEgdarWho

I hate when that happens!

I hate it too. There was another match right under this with the same O/U. They should post different handicaps in the adjacent lines all the time :clubbed:

Lucas · 03-01-06, 04:48 PM

Originally posted by Dark Horse

Take the long term approach to everything in sports betting. If you didn't intend to make the bet, cancel it; or at least hedge half the amount. Don't count on luck to bail you out. Remember that if you don't play from an edge, you're playing straight into the books hands, where your 110 dollars is worth only 100.

Thanks too. You are right. But now the line is unfortunatelly moving in the bad direction. So if I hedge it now, I will surely lose about 12 USD. In the long term approach I do not think this is good strategy. It is only small part of my pot, so If I can afford to lose it, I think it is better not to hedge it and the vig no more than twice.

JayEgdarWho · 03-01-06, 04:57 PM

You should expect to lose about half the vig for every no-advantage bet you make. (Betting a dollar on 100 coin flips at 11-10 you will be down $5 or .50 per flip.) So on a 12-cent line such as Pinny 1H hoops totals, a prudent hedge is one that results in something less a net loss of six cents per dollar on the original bet?

DH? Does that make sense? Ganchrow?

Dark Horse · 03-01-06, 05:07 PM

I'm just basing that on a mixture of numbers and feeling (the book has a 4.55% edge).

Real life is more than just numbers. If you lose a bet because of a dumb mistake you feel like an idiot. Better to be half an idiot. If you win it, better to profit only half, or you won't learn a thing and repeat the same mistake sooner than later.

I would cancel the bet without a second thought. If I can't play from an edge, what's the point? So what if it cost me some vig. I'll have that back soon enough.

JayEgdarWho · 03-01-06, 05:19 PM

Originally posted by Dark Horse

I'm just basing that on a mixture of numbers and feeling (the book has a 4.55% edge).

Real life is more than just numbers. If you lose a bet because of a dumb mistake you feel like an idiot. Better to be half an idiot. If you win it, better to profit only half, or you won't learn a thing and repeat the same mistake sooner than later.

I would cancel the bet without a second thought. If I can't play from an edge, what's the point? So what if it cost me some vig. I'll have that back soon enough.

Agreed it's a personal choice. Would you rather:

(a) Erase the mistake, pay the pennies, and not worry about it any more.
(b) Feel like half an idiot who at least knows the percentages.
(c) Gamble.

Lucas · 03-01-06, 05:21 PM

Originally posted by Dark Horse

I would cancel the bet without a second thought.

Well. I will think about it. Today is not my lucky day. I have betted on Jose Acasuso vs Nicolas Almagro. Almagro 3.25, he won the first set, then Accauso quited, so in spite of win 325 I got 100 returned

That is really March maddness.

Lucas · 03-01-06, 05:27 PM

Originally posted by JayEgdarWho

Agreed it's a personal choice. Would you rather:

(a) Erase the mistake, pay the pennies, and not worry about it any more.

The odd is going down at Pinnacle, now 1.84, it has no sense to hedge it now. The net loss is about 15 dollars. I will gamble...probably. 1 and half hour left.

JayEgdarWho · 03-01-06, 05:39 PM

Originally posted by Lucas

The odd is going down at Pinnacle, now 1.84, it has no sense to hedge it now. The net loss is about 15 dollars. I will gamble...probably. 1 and half hour left.

Watch those last 15 minutes before tipoff, Lucas -- for fun if nothing else. You may see significant movement.

Lucas · 03-01-06, 05:52 PM

Yes. Sure thing. I am looking at them, all the time - I saw happier events :-/ But althought all this all, it is fun.

Lucas · 03-01-06, 07:38 PM

So I left it. After 1st quarter 56 pts. But they are going to be lazy...

Lucas · 03-01-06, 08:09 PM

WOW: 102 Pt in the last second. But the nerves...

JayEgdarWho · 03-01-06, 08:14 PM

There you go!

that's gambling!