CLIPPERS is the play tomorrow

[sweetjones55]

Clippers -3.5 -130 LOCKED (x1)

4th game in 5 days for Charlotte. Charlotte plays today vs GS who should run them up and down the court and have them very tired for tomorrow. It will be their 4th straight road game. Line movement clearly pointing to a move to Clippers -5. Clippers are coming off two tough road losses to Houston and Dallas. Both games Clippers were winning at half and playing pretty well, they are just a young team and can't close out good home teams. It's a completely different story at home. Clippers are 7-0 SU last 7 games at home. And they didn't beat no cupcakes in those 7 wins at home. They took down Lakers, Miami and Denver in that stretch. Diaw and Kwame should get OWNED by Blake/Deandre. Foye has filled in nice for Gordon scoring 15 and 20 points. Clippers are pretty deep at the G position with Foye, Bledsoe, and Davis. Clippers will be fully aware of the Bobcats situation and run them out of the building.

[sweetjones55]

WOW, line just went to -5 Clippers on Pinnacle 2 minutes after I posted this.

[sweetjones55]

Line will be unbettable come tomorrow.

[lyon804]

Completely agree.

[sweetjones55]

Completely agree.

Just gave you a ring to tell you about the play when it was at -4.5 to make sure you got the best line. Hope you got it in.

[cblackgold]

why not x10 then !?

[sweetjones55]

why not x10 then !?

I am strongly considering putting more but kicking myself now after the line move. I kind of had to hurry to place the bet and didn't get to fully handicap it which is why I put 1 unit. My unit sizes are much bigger than most though as I only bet 1-5 UNITS and I don't have peanuts on this.

[mtxj30]

just placed bet. only 1 unit because im trying to build my account up right now. i only started with $25 the other day

what do you think about the spurs tomorrow?

[nah0228]

im with you on this.

[raiders510]

not sure about this one....line is too high.

[sweetjones55]

Line will be unbettable come tomorrow.

Line went from -4.5 to -5.5. Unbettable now just as I expected.

[Allure]

WOW, line just went to -5 Clippers on Pinnacle 2 minutes after I posted this.

Yeah, surely because of your post here.

[vinny808]

I'm sure SJ wasn't the only sharp that cashed in on this play. 80% favored at -5.5. Must have been near 100% at -3.5.

[twelvejewelz]

o/u 195?

[drfunkmaster]

good luck!!! one of these teams will choke large

[aireent777]

Why can't we take Clips up to 5.5?

[CheeseHead]

Why can't we take Clips up to 5.5?

I'm not sure why that would be "unbettable" either if 3.5 is a great play.. If they cover 3.5, there has to be a decent chance they cover the 5.5. Line looks like it may come back down to 5, so I'm monitoring it a bit before making any play.

[sweetjones55]

I'm not sure why that would be "unbettable" either if 3.5 is a great play.. If they cover 3.5, there has to be a decent chance they cover the 5.5. Line looks like it may come back down to 5, so I'm monitoring it a bit before making any play.

Because a two point move in the NBA highly undervalues the play. The key is to beat the closer, not to be a square and play lines after they move against you.

[CheeseHead]

I bought the line down to -3.5 so I got the same number, just worse value.

[mtbaker]

Sure it's the 4th in 5 nights for the Bobcats but they have some very fit players. The Bobcats will still be on the road after this game so they won't have that problem of thinking about going back home. The Bobcats have been great in b2bs under Silas, they are a better ball game against the Gordon-less Clippers and will be pumped up to make it 4 in a row. Adrenaline will pull them through for the cover and potential SU win.

[gv12]

good luck today SJ

[sweetjones55]

Sure it's the 4th in 5 nights for the Bobcats but they have some very fit players. The Bobcats will still be on the road after this game so they won't have that problem of thinking about going back home. The Bobcats have been great in b2bs under Silas, they are a better ball game against the Gordon-less Clippers and will be pumped up to make it 4 in a row. Adrenaline will pull them through for the cover and potential SU win.

4th game in 5 nights, 4 straight road games, and they went to OT against the highest paced team in the NBA? Good luck with the Bobcats.

[riskyProps]

The Clippers are missing Gordon. He's the one that usually pulls them out when they are having rough 3rd and 4th Quarters and you can see what was the case in their last 2 games. They will probably come out strong the first half though.

[riskyProps]

I forgot to add, I'll probably be betting the Clippers tonight. LOL

[sweetjones55]

The Clippers are missing Gordon. He's the one that usually pulls them out when they are having rough 3rd and 4th Quarters and you can see what was the case in their last 2 games. They will probably come out strong the first half though.

Gordon pulls them out of rough patches in the 3rd and 4th quarter? They are terrible on the road with or without him.

[Masu485]

my system says Charlotte, so i'll be on them. they screwed me last night though against GSW, they better not screw me for a 2nd time!

waiting for the line to go to 6 at either 5D or Pinny, but these fukks have kept it at 5.5 the whole day while EVERYWHERE else has it at 6.

[BetterBizness]

Line went from -4.5 to -5.5. Unbettable now just as I expected.

How are they unbettable if you have a model that says they win by 20?

[Pensinger1]

How are they unbettable if you have a model that says they win by 20?

This.

SJ is just trying to cover his ass if the Clips don't cover. How can you possibly have enough courage about a play to start a new thread about it, create an essay about why it's such a solid play and then when the line moves ONE POINT, call it "unbettable."

ROFL

[Pensinger1]

EDIT: oops.

[CheeseHead]

This. SJ is just trying to cover his ass if the Clips don't cover. How can you possibly have enough courage about a play to start a new thread about it, create an essay about why it's such a solid play and then when the line moves ONE POINT, call it "unbettable." ROFL

That is kind of what I asked earlier:

I'm not sure why that would be "unbettable" either if 3.5 is a great play.. If they cover 3.5, there has to be a decent chance they cover the 5.5. Line looks like it may come back down to 5, so I'm monitoring it a bit before making any play.

This is the answer I got:

Because a two point move in the NBA highly undervalues the play. The key is to beat the closer, not to be a square and play lines after they move against you.

I agree, a 2 point move definitely undervalues the play. Still, you gotta feel good about -5.5 if you felt great about -3.5. Obviously, you still want the lower number in any case, but saying that a one or two point move makes it "unbettable" is questionable.

[bettorjon]

no gordon

cha coming off a huge win last night

you think it is still a good play?

[nulldah]

4th game in 5th night, i agreed. but doesn't fast paced game against gsw not hurting them, but helping them instead, i heard somewhere playing defense is more tiring?

[sweetjones55]

4th game in 5th night, i agreed. but doesn't fast paced game against gsw not hurting them, but helping them instead, i heard somewhere playing defense is more tiring?

I think the amount of times you run up and down the court plays a big role in your fatigue.

[sweetjones55]

no gordon

cha coming off a huge win last night

you think it is still a good play?

Yes, this was the EXACT scenario I was looking for in this game. I wanted Charlotte to win a very tough, close game. OT was just a great bonus.

[sweetjones55]

This.

SJ is just trying to cover his ass if the Clips don't cover. How can you possibly have enough courage about a play to start a new thread about it, create an essay about why it's such a solid play and then when the line moves ONE POINT, call it "unbettable."

ROFL

I create "essays" about all my plays, doesn't matter if it's 1 unit or 5 units. I should have probably put 2 units but the thing was that the line came out at -4.5. I knew it was going to move very fast and I didn't get enough time to handicap the game and confidently put 2 units so I threw one unit on it and kept on looking at the game. Unfortunately the line moved really quickly to -5 after I put 1 unit and now it reopened at -5.5 and up to -6 and I don't play bad numbers, period. You will get beat long run doing so and that's why I don't do it.