Line Movement is fukking OVERRATED!!!

[wiseman]

Sometimes you just have to follow your gut...

Line movement that fukked you today in the NBA:

Memphis
Washington
Milwaukee
New Jersey

[t-wizzle]

You're overrated

[BettingWizard]

line movement should be like 10% of your capping

[wiseman]

line movement should be like 10% of your capping

Are you kidding me only 10%??? You're a funny guy.. People here make their picks based on the fukking Line Movement itself..

[JackHorner]

The only one I would have played based on line movement would be Washington. The others all moved with the public so that seems normal to me.

[JackHorner]

RLM for NCABB would have netted you a win from Morehead St, but a loss on Siena. Usually I stay away from line movement on small conferences/colleges.

[No coincidences]

Line movement -- especially RLM -- was golden with totals today.

[og4667]

just because a line moves doesn't mean your suppossed to bet it, you have to work hard and learn how to read the lines

[dynamite140]

Nothing special about RLM.

[todd24kb]

Sometimes you just have to follow your gut... Line movement that fukked you today in the NBA: Memphis Washington Milwaukee New Jersey

Take RLM with a grain of salt. Don't believe the hype these so-called "great cappers" on SBR say about the movements. They try to find things--sometimes really off the wall--to prove their point, and when their pick hits, people praise them like their sportsbetting gods.

[No coincidences]

So ignore it.

That was easy.

Seriously, what the f\*\*k is going on here today? No one is forcing you to make a play based on line movement or read a post based on line movement, are they? I don't know if posters are intimidated by it or what, but it's amazing how this topic stays alive. It's as though posters who do read and/or follow lines, RLM, late movement, etc. are telling everyone else to make the play with a fvcking knife against their jugular.

Do your own capping or just "go with your gut." Problem solved.

[TakeIt]

The problem with betting on line movements is that you're always taking the worst of the line. Unless you're an otherwise brilliant handicapper, how can doing that show a long term profit?

If the line opens at -6 and closes at -7, taking the -7 will at best break even long term (losing the juice.)

However, if you somehow knew the line would go from -6 to -7, laying the -6 would would win about 55% long term.

It's called beating the closer.

I've been tracking this for the entire season and you can view the results here post #181. [Explanation of spreadsheet results in post #162]

[dynamite140]

Every play No coindences make is related to line movement and that is a FACT

[artist]

Line movement suck unless it go against the public say the line is -6 and over 70 percent of the public is on it and then the line drop to -5 with no injury or players out or condition haha then the line movement would be good to take that +6 or +5! Go against the public!!!!

[suicidekings]

Betting a line after it moves is NOT what watching line movement is about... It's about forming an opinion on the initial line first (does it make sense? which way do you expect it to move?) and then identifying situations in which the line moves abnormally or fails to move despite imbalanced betting. As is true with respect to most strategies... when you do it wrong, don't be surprised when it fails...

But that being said, it might support a play you have in mind, but is rarely the primary reason to bet a game.

[hels]

Betting a line after it moves is NOT what watching line movement is about... It's about forming an opinion on the initial line first (does it make sense? which way do you expect it to move?) and then identifying situations in which the line moves abnormally or fails to move despite imbalanced betting. As is true with respect to most strategies... when you do it wrong, don't be surprised when it fails... But that being said, it might support a play you have in mind, but is rarely the primary reason to bet a game.

This is about as simple but correct as you can state it. It's like if the Lakers are at home vs. the Cavs and the line opens at -7 (for who knows what reason) of course you take the -7 right away as you know it should become much higher. If it doesn't move then you hedge out and take your 10% loss. If it does move higher then you can either ride it out or go for the middle. Either way your original play of -7 is golden as long as it moves how you predicted.

[necro]

steam is sometimes good but it's not something to follow by a letter

[Crnjak]

Nuggets OVER is my only bet tonight!!

[wikkidinsane]

Police: Don't do it man!
You: Betting sux and im ending it right now!
Police: (Not knowing how much the thought of Rapid Line Movement increases the likelihood of you jumping off the chair), says, "There will be no rapid line movements tonight"!
You : *Jumps off chair and hangs*

PS:Home Depot sell ropes and knifes -- please stay away from Home Depot for a month

[Sawyer]

I don't understand. If you're confident with your play, why care about line movement? If you care about line movement then it means you're not confident with your model/system.

[TakeIt]

I don't understand. If you're confident with your play, why care about line movement? If you care about line movement then it means you're not confident with your model/system.

This is just wrong on so many levels.

[hustla]

I use rlm as a filter, works good

[todd24kb]

Yesterday, I took o212 in Spurs/Warriors game disregarding the RLM. I took the Kittens today, and the same shit about RLM.

[JackHorner]

Seton Hall and Marquette are plays showing line movement and looks like Seton Hall is going to win outright big time!