Best Bets 2/23

**mad** · 02-22-06, 10:20 PM

Pacers +8.5
Kings +3
Grizzlies +8

**Razz** · 02-22-06, 11:47 PM

1* Jacksonville St. -2

**imgv94** · 02-23-06, 12:33 AM

1* Old Dominion -14 +102

**imgv94** · 02-23-06, 12:44 AM

1* Hofstra -1 +107 waiting for tomorrow to put another unit
or two.

**pags11** · 02-23-06, 12:51 AM

Stanford +8 (+109)
USC -2 (-101)
Cal -2.5 (+102)
Hofstra ML +101
La. Tech +2 (+107)

**imgv94** · 02-23-06, 12:54 AM

pags???

Do you always put the same amount on every game??

**pags11** · 02-23-06, 12:58 AM

imgv,

in basketball season yes...I usually play 3 games on Sun. and Mon., 5 on Tue. thru Thu., and then 7 on Sat (taking Friday's off, always good to have a day off)...has been a pretty good system for me the last couple of years...

in football, I increase the size of my units each week until about week 7, then start playing lighter units come week 12 or so (as the lines get tighter)...7 Saturday games a week and I bet the same ammount on each game each week...also allow myself 10 non-Saturday games a year in football, but won't bet at all on Labor Day and the day after Thanskgiving anymore (too much weird shit has happened over the years on those two days)...just my two cents...GL bro, I'm glad we are both on Hofstra...

**BuddyBear** · 02-23-06, 01:03 AM

Talk about a well thought out system....all you young posters out there take a good hard look at a guy who puts a lot of energy and thought into this. Notice the money management skills, notice the discipline not to play any more games then what is agreed upon, the line shopping from a guy with multiple books, the selectivity of games, and patience all to turn a profit by season's end. Very good post....from a very good poster.

Originally posted by pags11

imgv,

in basketball season yes...I usually play 3 games on Sun. and Mon., 5 on Tue. thru Thu., and then 7 on Sat (taking Friday's off, always good to have a day off)...has been a pretty good system for me the last couple of years...

in football, I increase the size of my units each week until about week 7, then start playing lighter units come week 12 or so (as the lines get tighter)...7 Saturday games a week and I bet the same ammount on each game each week...also allow myself 10 non-Saturday games a year in football, but won't bet at all on Labor Day and the day after Thanskgiving anymore (too much weird shit has happened over the years on those two days)...just my two cents...GL bro, I'm glad we are both on Hofstra...

**imgv94** · 02-23-06, 01:10 AM

pags! You are alot smarter than you give yourself credit for bud!

Good system. I have no discipline,never will. If I could would be

retired already. I have always had a knack for picking winners.

pags good luck, Hofstra bro!!

**Razz** · 02-23-06, 01:10 AM

Don't really agree with the structure of playing a certain amount of plays per day. Let me say that differently: I don't think I would thrive in a system like that.

I absolutely love the thoughts on the increasing units during the early part of the football season (My NFL plays showed a profit in 11 of 16 weekends - including every week from Week 2-7) and then backing off when the lines tighten. I am going to start doing that. Much appreciation for that pags.

**imgv94** · 02-23-06, 01:13 AM

I know pags has me thinking?? And I am high but mind is in right place.

pags I too will definitely remember what you said. Thanks!!

**Illusion** · 02-23-06, 03:06 AM

Yesterday's results:

BigD: 3-0-1 +8.00
Alamorich: 9-2 +7.70
imgv94: 5-1 +6.50
presley177: 7-1-1 +5.90
Adamo: 4-3-1 +5.20
Razz: 8-3 +4.60
Dark Horse: 1-0 +1.00
adriano: 1-0 +1.00
bama06: 2-1 +0.90
shantystar: 2-2-1 -0.20
maritime: 1-1 -0.50
El Guapo: 1-2 -1.06
BuddyBear: 0-1 -1.10
pags11: 2-3 -1.13
mahony: 1-2 -1.20
Illusion: 5-6 -2.01
onlooker: 0-3 -3.10
kgrock: 0-1 -3.30
juuso: 2-1 -3.30
JayEdgarWho: 2-9 -6.16
slacker00: 1-5 -6.30

**pags11** · 02-23-06, 03:59 AM

buddy,

thanks my friend for the kind words...I like to share what I have learned over all of the years, and I know you are someone who really listens to what I have to say...

razz,

first of all damn you!...lol...congrats on ISU and Miami tonight...

it's not an exact science, being that some Wednesdays in Jan. and early Feb. I do end up playing 7 games rather than 5 (usually if pinnacle is showing 4-5 pages, rather than the usually 3 pages of games)...also, I forgot to mention that I only play about 10-15 pre. December games in college hoops as I am usually focused on handicapping the college bowls, and I just like to watch a lot to get a beat on teams...this next year I will probably end up playing more like 20-25 pre January games, 'cause I'll have a better feel of the teams going into next year...lastly, I do not play any NCAA tournament games, where I strictly focus on getting into "whale" office pools and then as things get closer I calculate my odds and then hedge...meaning, I've seen to many crazy things happen in the NCAA tourney and I've often turned $50 to $100 into $1000 with not much risk...as far as the NIT goes, I might play a couple...I've found the NIT to be much like college bowl season (who wants to be there and who doesn't)...one doesn't have to adopt my system, but you need to have a system, period...otherwise, the books will get you in the end...they prey upon our lack of discipline...I profited in 12 of the 15 weeks of college football this year, two weeks I broke even, and one week I lost my ass (going 1-6 with my highest units...it was like week 8)...the hardest and most important thing for me to do that week, was not chase...had some tough losses too (Purdue +4 in OT vs. Minny, Oregon +21.5 at home vs. USC)...I was 0-6 going into the night game, Oregon St. vs. ASU at OSU...had ASU -7...I took it like a man, watched the game and came out a winner...but I didn't chase, didn't load up on ASU...just licked my wounds and went on to the next week...

imgv,

you remind me a lot of myself as a younger capper (and I was a good young capper no doubt)...as I've gotten more experienced I have just left myself open to less risk (and reward I guess as well), learning that it's a marathon not a sprint...

anytime you guys want to know my thoughts on anything, feel free to send me a PM...GLTA

**JayEgdarWho** · 02-23-06, 08:30 AM

NBA
2* SAC+3 (-107)
2* u199 @LAX (-105)
1* IND +8 (+104)
1* MEM +7.5 (-102)
(all played Wed PM @ Pinny)

No chatter from me . . . .
I'd rather hear more from Pags and Razz --
great stuff, Pags

**El Guapo** · 02-23-06, 09:31 AM

Illusion, your record show me for 1-2 last night but I thought it was 2-1 with wins for Clippers and Nebraska. Where did I mess up?

Paul

**presley177** · 02-23-06, 10:02 AM

Towson State +4.5
South Carolina -1.5
Siena +11
Villanova -3 1/2
Stanford +9
Siena/Iona UNDER 152 1/2
Georgia State/Townson State UNDER 144 1/2
Stanford/Washington UNDER 152

**Alamorich** · 02-23-06, 11:13 AM

I had made up my mind prior to college football season that on Saturdays I would play 3 games only. One would be a super game and the others half value. Out of all those games on Saturday I was able pick that one big game consistantly and many saturdays I split the two little ones and hit all three several times. Worse thing that happened was that I lose the super play but won the two minor ones and got a push. Don't think I went 0-3. I also played all the weekday games so there was plenty of action thoughout the week. In the NFL I did basically the same thing in that I had a super game and I would allow myself up to 5 plays on Sunday.

In hoops the rule is if I like it play it. I still go heavier on some plays more than others. Once again I have lost the big plays but the little ones come in and worse thing about this method is you loose the little ones but the big one(s) come through. In any of these systems if you are going to wipe out..say go 0-5 you were doomed no matter what you did anyway. A big question is how much do I bet? One system I use is to take 5% of your bankroll and that's you play money for the night. Take the 5% and spread it over your picks as I have suggested above. If I am going bad and just don't feel right or don't like the card I might cut that in half. The one thing you NEVER do kids is throw half your roll on a LOCK or worse..put all your wad on a SURE THING. First of all no such thing as a Lock and second of all it's not fun to be chewing your nails and squirming in you seat all day. If your game comes through you feel relieved but not much else. If it looses you feel like a total idiot. That's what the books want you to do...that's what they are counting on...that's how they make their money.

I got no problem shutting down for a few months either if I really suck. Just bring your money home..take a month or two off and come back refreshed for what ever sport is just beginning. Always another game, always another season. Having said all that here are mine for today.

Morehead +6.5 2U
Fresno St -2.5 2U
Stanford +9 2U

N.O. -2
W. Kentucky -2.5
Arkansas St. +7.5

**mahony** · 02-23-06, 12:56 PM

northeasten -2.5 over delaware
if this win i will back in las vegas sooner rather than later

**bama06** · 02-23-06, 01:16 PM

for a DIME

Sac/lal U N D E R 198

**LVHerbie** · 02-23-06, 01:48 PM

fairfield +10 +103 (2units)
standford +8.5 +102 (2u)
geoge wash. +1 -112 (1u)
e. wash. ML -105 (1u)

**maritime** · 02-23-06, 02:38 PM

Stanford +9 (-110) 1*
Hofstra pk (-110) 1*
Kings +2.5 (-110) 1*

**El Guapo** · 02-23-06, 02:45 PM

These come from SBR Odds for Pinnacle.

1 unit, Memphis Grizzlies, +7.5 (-106)
1 unit, Stanford, +9 (-107)
1 unit, New Mexico State, -1.5 (-103)

Paul

**Illusion** · 02-23-06, 02:56 PM

Detroit -9.5 +102
Memphis +6.5 +110

2 units each

**Illusion** · 02-23-06, 03:03 PM

Washington State moneyline +120
Northwestern +3 +111
Cincinnati moneyline +160
UCLA -15.5 -103
Tennessee Tech +3 +116

2 units each

**bama06** · 02-23-06, 03:13 PM

ncaa plays

ODU-14 and CAL./WSU OVER 115

**Wassymac** · 02-23-06, 03:16 PM

Northwestern +4 -108 1 unit
G. Mason +1 -105 .5 unit
USC -1.5 -103 .5 unit

Taking it real easy today after the big play yesterday. Already got broadband going in the apartment so I may get more plays out than I had imagined.

**pags11** · 02-23-06, 03:30 PM

alamorich, I say no more than 2.5% of your bankroll on any one play...5% at the very, very most...hope this helps...GL...

**JayEgdarWho** · 02-23-06, 03:36 PM

Originally posted by pags11

alamorich, I say no more than 2.5% of your bankroll on any one play...5% at the very, very most...hope this helps...GL...

I think Alamo's going you one better here, pags.
He's saying you should not have more than 5% of the bankroll at risk at any one time -- whether on one play or multiple plays.

A solid commandment to live by --but hard. Very hard.

**Dark Horse** · 02-23-06, 03:36 PM

DAL 1H -4

* Going back two months DAL in 1H at home, with rest, is 10-2 ATS.
In most of these games DAL covered the full game spread at the half. The two ATS losses were followed by 2H blowouts. So, in case this wager doesn't win:

A 2H bet on DAL is a go when they are challenged at the half.
* Since January DAL is 10-1 ATS in 2H, as a favorite with rest, when leading by 5 or less at the half.

**pags11** · 02-23-06, 03:39 PM

jay,

yeah, that's definitely a good thought by alamorich...

**Seattle Slew** · 02-23-06, 04:36 PM

Cincinnati plus 4 at home against Villanova. Cinci has played well lately (crushing Syracuse on the road) and Villanova is due to fall after some tough games last week (UConn, G'Town).

**Illusion** · 02-23-06, 04:41 PM

Originally posted by Seattle Slew

Cincinnati plus 4 at home against Villanova. Cinci has played well lately (crushing Syracuse on the road) and Villanova is due to fall after some tough games last week (UConn, G'Town).

That's why I have the moneyline for two units.

**onlooker** · 02-23-06, 04:56 PM

1 unit:

Western Kentucky -2.5
California -2
USC -2
Jacksonville St. -2
Montana PK

Deuces wild.

**maritime** · 02-23-06, 05:02 PM

lot of us on Stanford tonight. good luck.