Curious Season Thread

[curious]

Ha Ha...Ok Curious...I will put some in here and you just let me know...

1) For NBA and NCAAB---> Playing AGAINAT ALL 5 or more ATS Win streaks in a row (Ex. 5, 6, 7, 8 ATS Win Streaks in a row and playing AGAINST that streak)

I looked at the first one for NBA. I cannot run a query that gets all wins in a row up to N wins, I have to run the queries one at a time. This is over the last 5 years. I only did 6, 7, and 8 wins in a row. These are SU results, ATS results were pretty much even number of wins and losses.

If you bet against win streaks over 5 games you are going to get killed.

Here is win streak = 6
1341-742 Average line is -210
win streak = 7
889-446 Average line is -210
win streak = 8
608-276 Average line is -240

[curious]

Monday Jan 10 NBA

There was so much fooling around in the thread today I couldn't find the picks, so I am posting them again:

NBA Game:
Boston -400 ML 40 units to win 10 units
Chicago -500 ML 50 units to win 10 units
Memphis -150 ML 1.5 units to win 1 unit

1st Quarter
Boston -2 1/2 -110 2.2 to win 2
Chicago -3 -110 2.2 to win 2

1st Half
Boston -5 -110 2.2 to win 2
Chicago -6 -110 2.2 to win 2

[jolmscheid]

Ok thanks curious I appreciate it! Down the drain

[edh1011]

celtics D is swallowing hard tonight.

[Krazymojo]

I think we all got hit today I follow Avon and some of yours but man bad day thank god for Auburn and the under

[curious]

I think we all got hit today I follow Avon and some of yours but man bad day thank god for Auburn and the under

I had that Seattle parlay which won 95 units the other day so I'm okay, but I feel bad for anyone who followed me.

Yesterday was very strange. Maybe we should just stay away from NBA on these days with a couple of games?

[curious]

Don't go crazy on these, just having a little fun.
Play all of these the same way 1 unit on the Win, 2 units on the place, 4 units on the show. Let's make a unit $10 today just for fun.

fairgrounds
5 Dancinfromthegitgo 6-1
6 sweettouch 4-1
8 Eighth At Citypark 9-2
9 Looks Purrrfect 6-1
10 Deputy Soldier 10-1

Dancinfromthegitgo and Deputy Soldier were scratched.

6 sweettouch W $37.00 P $36.00 S $64.00 = $137.00
8 Eighth At Citypark S $52.00

I think we lost about $20. No big deal. Should have stopped after sweettouch won. LOL I really liked that horse.

[curious]

These are small plays, don't go crazy on them.

Toronto +160 1 to win 1.6
Detroit -110 1.1 to win 1

I hate hockey.

Toronto won and Detroit lost, so we pocket .5 units. WOOOOOHOOOOOO

[curious]

Not much going on in NBA, here are two small NCAAB plays

Austin Peay -600 ML 12 units to win 2 units
Elon -170 ML 3.4 units to win 2 units

2 Winners +4 units WOOOOO HOOOOOOOOOOOOO

[curious]

There was so much fooling around in the thread today I couldn't find the picks, so I am posting them again:

NBA Game:
Boston -400 ML 40 units to win 10 units
Chicago -500 ML 50 units to win 10 units
Memphis -150 ML 1.5 units to win 1 unit

1st Quarter
Boston -2 1/2 -110 2.2 to win 2
Chicago -3 -110 2.2 to win 2

1st Half
Boston -5 -110 2.2 to win 2
Chicago -6 -110 2.2 to win 2

Jeezuz I'm beginning to believe the rumors that NBA sporting events are FIXED.

Well, I won 100 units on NFL so I'm okay, sorry for anyone who trailed me. What a horrible ******* day. I NEVER lose all the Q and H plays. NEVER. I'm glad that Memphis play was small. I took that because some crackhead in another thread recommended it, I couldn't see an edge in that game. Should have stayed away.

Why did Chicago even show up for the game, they should have just defaulted. ******* crackheads.

[curious]

"

[curious]

Turn $100 into $100,000 (or zero LOL)

Let's have a little fun. Some crackhead is running a thread where he is trying to turn $100 into $12,000. That's crazy. Let's turn $100 into $100,000. We have to win something like 12 games in a row and parlay all the winnings. Shoot I do that about once a week. LOL

No one has lines up yet, but I am leaning toward a parlay of some of these:

Lakers
Washington
Atlanta
Philly
Portland ?

We have to get the parlay odds into + territory so we might have to play 3 of these.

[curious]

Tue, Jan 11 Leans

I don't have lines yet, leaning on these crackheads.

Philly
Atlanta
Washington
Minnesota (depends on how many points they get)
Phoenix (depends on how many points they get)
Portland
Lakers

[LolsMcwinsey]

Curious, I just want to let you know that I have zero respect for you.

[curious]

Curious, I just want to let you know that I have zero respect for you.

And you think I care why?

[cala56]

Hey curious i you are a genius, i enjoy all your post. Lakers and portland look good. philly too

[PistolPete13]

So i was thinking about 1 of your posts about teams not losing all 4 qtrs in an nba game. It's hard to get in on a 2nd qtr or 4th qtr bet because many sites don't post them in time. So I came up with another idea pertaining to the same process.

The play is to bet on a team to win the 3rd qtr. (ML) that lost both the 1st and 2nd qtrs. Playing that out over the last week you would have gone 19-8 or 70%. I have to look back at it, but I am willing to bet that if you eliminate the bottom 20-25% teams, you could raise that number to an even higher %.

What do you think of this?

[peepp]

Curious, keep this good thread going, not so many of these here on SBR.

Ps: yesterday was the day that I thought was the right day to start tailing Your ML plays. I so knew that Your going to take a loss on one ML play at least when Im on board - sorry for that dude

GL for today.

[PistolPete13]

this system goes 42-28 over last month. Again, can probably improve the number by eliminating bad teams as an option.
Could even eliminate teams for the following reasons:
back to back games
on a losing streak
injured starters
end of a long road trip.

I guess that's a lot to try to work out at halftime.

[spongerat]

hey curious, missed the celtics game but it looks like they lost, i was surprised. How'd you end up last night? good luck today, i like milwaukee +6.5

[curious]

this system goes 42-28 over last month. Again, can probably improve the number by eliminating bad teams as an option.
Could even eliminate teams for the following reasons:
back to back games
on a losing streak
injured starters
end of a long road trip.

I guess that's a lot to try to work out at halftime.

Hey Pete can you calculate it if you take the dogs + the points and the favs money line?

[PistolPete13]

I'm not sure I can get my hands on 3rd qtr lines dating back the last few months, but I am going to start tracking it now, so I can do it going forward.

[curious]

hey curious, missed the celtics game but it looks like they lost, i was surprised. How'd you end up last night? good luck today, i like milwaukee +6.5

Terrible. Had a large play on the money line lose at -500. But I had Seattle in a parlay on the ML and the OVER for +950 that won 95 units. I also had another football play that won 5 units. So I was up 100 units to make up for that bad NBA play.

NBA is very strange this year. I can't figure out what is going on.

I don't like today's card very much, not sure what I'm going to do with it.

[curious]

So i was thinking about 1 of your posts about teams not losing all 4 qtrs in an nba game. It's hard to get in on a 2nd qtr or 4th qtr bet because many sites don't post them in time. So I came up with another idea pertaining to the same process.

The play is to bet on a team to win the 3rd qtr. (ML) that lost both the 1st and 2nd qtrs. Playing that out over the last week you would have gone 19-8 or 70%. I have to look back at it, but I am willing to bet that if you eliminate the bottom 20-25% teams, you could raise that number to an even higher %.

What do you think of this?

This is dicey if you cannot play the 4th Q. We know that teams don't normally lose all 4 Qs, but they can easily lose 3 Qs in a row and then win the 4th Q.

[curious]

I'm not sure I can get my hands on 3rd qtr lines dating back the last few months, but I am going to start tracking it now, so I can do it going forward.

You can get all the quarters going back as far as you want to go, but in my experience anything beyond the 1st 1/4 of this year doesn't mean anything.

This is an example query which returns the Bulls games by Quarter going back five years:
team, o:team, quarter scores, o:quarter scores, date@team=Bulls

from this site:
http://sportsdatabase.com/nba.py (if you have a problem with taht just go to http://sportsdatabase.com and pick the NBA option.

It should be easy enough to put this into a spreadsheet and see what the winning/losing Qs are.

Here are the results for this year:
Bulls Thunder [25, 29, 28, 13] [30, 29, 23, 24] 10-27-2010
Bulls Pistons [21, 23, 23, 34] [24, 39, 19, 9] 10-30-2010
Bulls Trailblazers [32, 24, 32, 22] [21, 26, 26, 25] 11-01-2010
Bulls Knicks [30, 22, 31, 29] [34, 36, 23, 27] 11-04-2010
Bulls Celtics [23, 15, 26, 32, 9] [19, 30, 23, 24, 14] 11-05-2010
Bulls Nuggets [23, 27, 18, 26] [28, 15, 27, 22] 11-08-2010
Bulls Warriors [34, 32, 28, 26] [20, 18, 25, 27] 11-11-2010
Bulls Wizards [24, 26, 22, 31] [25, 17, 16, 38] 11-13-2010
Bulls Rockets [19, 30, 14, 32] [26, 15, 30, 21] 11-16-2010
Bulls Spurs [25, 22, 12, 35] [18, 19, 37, 29] 11-17-2010
Bulls Mavericks [19, 20, 17, 32] [13, 22, 24, 24] 11-19-2010
Bulls Lakers [26, 23, 24, 18] [26, 25, 23, 24] 11-23-2010
Bulls Suns [17, 33, 22, 29, 10, 12] [36, 26, 22, 17, 10, 4] 11-24-2010
Bulls Nuggets [20, 18, 35, 24] [25, 23, 28, 22] 11-26-2010
Bulls Kings [21, 23, 25, 27] [28, 29, 19, 9] 11-27-2010
Bulls Magic [22, 15, 25, 16] [28, 33, 24, 22] 12-01-2010
Bulls Celtics [19, 29, 19, 25] [31, 22, 29, 22] 12-03-2010
Bulls Rockets [25, 31, 25, 28, 10] [23, 21, 35, 30, 7] 12-04-2010
Bulls Thunder [24, 29, 29, 17] [22, 26, 18, 24] 12-06-2010
Bulls Cavaliers [21, 20, 19, 28] [15, 20, 33, 15] 12-08-2010
Bulls Lakers [12, 24, 30, 22] [22, 10, 26, 26] 12-10-2010
Bulls Timberwolves [27, 31, 29, 26] [18, 19, 28, 17] 12-11-2010
Bulls Pacers [27, 16, 22, 27] [18, 23, 17, 15] 12-13-2010
Bulls Raptors [23, 40, 28, 19] [18, 26, 20, 29] 12-15-2010
Bulls Clippers [31, 22, 23, 23] [28, 33, 22, 17] 12-18-2010
Bulls Seventysixers [33, 28, 31, 29] [19, 24, 11, 22] 12-21-2010
Bulls Wizards [29, 17, 27, 14] [33, 17, 20, 10] 12-22-2010
Bulls Knicks [20, 34, 29, 12] [21, 31, 33, 18] 12-25-2010
Bulls Pistons [23, 17, 28, 17, 10] [15, 19, 23, 28, 7] 12-26-2010
Bulls Bucks [27, 17, 23, 23] [15, 30, 17, 15] 12-28-2010
Bulls Nets [23, 23, 24, 20] [21, 23, 19, 18] 12-31-2010
Bulls Cavaliers [24, 29, 32, 15] [28, 33, 9, 21] 01-01-2011
Bulls Raptors [29, 30, 22, 30] [27, 14, 28, 22] 01-04-2011
Bulls Nets [24, 23, 18, 29] [25, 21, 32, 18] 01-05-2011
Bulls Seventysixers [30, 26, 18, 25] [28, 26, 32, 19] 01-07-2011
Bulls Celtics [22, 24, 21, 23] [21, 21, 22, 15] 01-08-2011
Bulls Pistons [20, 23, 33, 19] [25, 30, 15, 12] 01-10-2011

[MBKng4]

Hey curious,

Awesome thread, your making awesome picks. Do you use a system, or do you just analyze and come up with a winner? What about the quarter bets, is there any system for that or do you just find a trend?

Also good advice on the Spread+ML to cover losses.

Sorry if I seem like I'm pestering you, but I'm going to try to get into this more seriously and would appreciate whatever advice I can get. Thanks man and gl with your picks.

[curious]

Tue, Jan 11 spread

There might be more of these posts. I got this from Paco. NOTE** I do NOT know how to cap totals. If you trust Paco then play this, otherwise don't play it.

Kings/Wizards Over 197 -110 1.1 unit to win 1 unit

[curious]

Hey curious,

Awesome thread, your making awesome picks. Do you use a system, or do you just analyze and come up with a winner?

I analyze. I look at season win loss, all games streak as far back as I can tell when the streak began, and home streak for home teams and away streak for away teams going back as far as I can to when I figure the current streak began. For example, let's say a team has won 3 in a row but lost 2 before that, I will count them as being on a 3-0 streak. BUT I also look at the strength of the opponent. If these 3 games were good teams then I will consider it more than if these were 3 scrub teams.

What about the quarter bets, is there any system for that or do you just find a trend?

I use two strategies, sometimes together, sometimes not. I look at the numbers for Quarters given by www.teamrankings.com, I am looking for a big + number vs a small negative number (in negative numbers the larger the digit the smaller the number is, so -10 is smaller than -2). For example, Lakers 2nd Quarter at +6 vs Cavaliers 2nd Quarter at - 4 (I just made that up).

Some games won't have any Quarter picks using the first method.

For games that I am not already playing Quarters on I look at who won the 1st Quarter and take the opposing team on all Quarters until they win, when they win I stop. I double the bet every time this team loses another Quarter. So, in Quarter 2 the bet is X, if they lose Quarter 2 then the bet for Quarter 3 is 2x, if they lost Quarter 3 then the bet for Quarter 4 is 4x.

Also good advice on the Spread+ML to cover losses.

I don't play spreads on favs, I only use them on dogs. I only play dogs that I think can win, so usually I take them on both the money line and the spread. In this forum I am usually playing dogs only on the spread. I don't want novices playing dogs on the money line.

[MBKng4]

I analyze. I look at season win loss, all games streak as far back as I can tell when the streak began, and home streak for home teams and away streak for away teams going back as far as I can to when I figure the current streak began. For example, let's say a team has won 3 in a row but lost 2 before that, I will count them as being on a 3-0 streak. BUT I also look at the strength of the opponent. If these 3 games were good teams then I will consider it more than if these were 3 scrub teams.


I use two strategies, sometimes together, sometimes not. I look at the numbers for Quarters given by www.teamrankings.com, I am looking for a big + number vs a small negative number (in negative numbers the larger the digit the smaller the number is, so -10 is smaller than -2). For example, Lakers 2nd Quarter at +6 vs Cavaliers 2nd Quarter at - 4 (I just made that up).

Some games won't have any Quarter picks using the first method.

For games that I am not already playing Quarters on I look at who won the 1st Quarter and take the opposing team on all Quarters until they win, when they win I stop. I double the bet every time this team loses another Quarter. So, in Quarter 2 the bet is X, if they lose Quarter 2 then the bet for Quarter 3 is 2x, if they lost Quarter 3 then the bet for Quarter 4 is 4x.



I don't play spreads on favs, I only use them on dogs. I only play dogs that I think can win, so usually I take them on both the money line and the spread. In this forum I am usually playing dogs only on the spread. I don't want novices playing dogs on the money line.

Thanks a lot man. So the other quarter's system you use is basically betting that a team won't win all 4 quarters? That's pretty interesting.

Thanks again man

[curious]

Tuesday Jan 11

All of these are -110.

1st Q
Philadelphia -1 1/2
Minnesota +2
Portland -1 1/2
Lakers -4

1st H
Indiana +3 1/2
Washington -3 1/2
Denver -2 1/2
Portland -2 1/2
Lakers -8

NOTE** If you can find a book that will let you play Qs and Hs on the money line TAKE IT!!! Play dogs + the points and favs on the money line. I am playing these on the spread because a lot of SBR members say that they cannot find any place to play them on the money line.

[curious]

Thanks a lot man. So the other quarter's system you use is basically betting that a team won't win all 4 quarters? That's pretty interesting.

Thanks again man

Yep. Now, you have to be careful with this. I don't play any NBA until 1/4 of the season is over. You have to see if there are any teams that are periodically losing all 4 quarters, one year OKC did this all the time. This year it is tough because no one team is having games where they lose all the Quarters, it seems like teach team has 2 or 3 of these. Wierd.

I use a progression with this play, but what you might want to do is play all the Qs straight bets (no progression) or just go for a Win for all the plays and don't worry about winning every game. For example, let's say that after the 2nd Quarter you are 6-2. Just stop.

We never looked at the 3rd Quarter vs the 1st Half, as in the team lost both Qs in the 1st Half. Maybe that is a stronger play.

There are lots of ways to slice and dice this, I tend to go with what is simplest so that I can play a large number of plays and get into the law of large numbers easier. Others may want to dissect more stats or look at more angles.

[curious]

Tue Jan 11 Q and H plays

I forgot to put the bet size on those guys. All plays are to win 2 units.

[curious]

Tue Jan 11 games

Okay, I have lines now.

Philly -200 6 units to win 3 units
Atlanta Postponed
Washington -275 What the freak? NO way, take Washington - the points.
Washington -6 1/2 -110 3.85 to win 3.5 units
Minnesota (depends on how many points they get) +6 1/2 -110 3.3 to win 3
Phoenix (depends on how many points they get) +5 -110 4.4 to win 4
Portland -175 2.63 to win 1.5

Lakers - Okay, I don't know what to do here. The lakers are notorious for not covering spreads and no one will give us a line on this game. Oh yeah, they will give us -5000, right. Maybe a teaser?

3 teams 7 points? Let's try it
Teaser +130 5 to win 6.5 units (Who wants to bet me that the Lakers win by 7)
Philly +2
Denver +2 1/2
Lakers -8

[curious]

Let's have a little fun. Some crackhead is running a thread where he is trying to turn $100 into $12,000. That's crazy. Let's turn $100 into $100,000. We have to win something like 12 games in a row and parlay all the winnings. Shoot I do that about once a week. LOL

No one has lines up yet, but I am leaning toward a parlay of some of these:

Lakers
Washington
Atlanta
Philly
Portland ?

We have to get the parlay odds into + territory so we might have to play 3 of these.

Parlay +103 $100 to win $103
Washington -265 ML
Philly -210 ML

[BernardMadoff]

Not crazy to turn 100 bucks into 12000, I more than tripled that in 3 weeks with 500 bucks. Best run of my life.