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curious is the man, I've learned a lot with his unique strategy.
Just wondering-- why do you use the word 'crackhead' so much?
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I have children and when they were teenagers I called them crackhead, and they are all girls and they have never used drugs or even thought about using drugs and they would get all "teenagery" at being called a crackhead.
Later in life they started calling me crack daddy. LOLComment -
I don't follow anyone all the time. There is someone that I was tailing for totals, but i forgot who it was. LOL. I'll double check and see if I can find out. I really try not to tail anyone else. One guy is on fire, >70% on spread plays (OUCH), but he doesn't post too many plays, I forget his name, I'll look it up and post it.Comment -
I always play money lines. I didn't really like the Lakers all that much, but I looked at the YTD money line difference and Lakers at home are .72 and New York on the road are .61 so I made a minimum play on the Lakers. I didn't cap this game very thoroughly because it is a small play.Comment -
Hello curious, I really like to follow your smart & selective betting style, keep up the good work.
Since you play sometimes a lot of units per game (I noticed as high as 18 units), I wonder what % of your bankroll is your 1 unit like?Comment -
People that I am currently tailing
Someone asked me who I am currently tailing. I don't have these names memorized, I have to look at the thread and figure it out.
I tail Laker_crazy for totals. He is pretty sharp. So, if I post a total I got it from Laker_crazy. Now, you have to realize I know nothing about capping totals, so don't take it as gospel from me. Cap it yourself and see if you agree. But I keep the plays small so you shouldn't get burned too badly if we go on a losing streak.Comment -
I don't like discussing the size of my bankroll because too many people caused me a problem over it.
So, how can I answer this? For my bank 1 unit is not 1%, it is lower than that. So, for me 18 units is NOT 18% of bank. GEEEEZUZ you would get killed betting like that. I think you should adjust my unit sizes to what you are comfortable with. My minimum play is always 1 unit. Let's say that two closely rated teams are playing each other and I cannot find an edge, then I pick one (probably home team) and they are 1 unit.
Now, let's say that I have three huge favs and I don't want to play them straight up, so I put them together in a parlay and add all the units together and bet enough to win that many units if the odds are negative and risk that many units if the odds are positive. For example, say I took 3 teams that were -1000, -600, and -400, that line would be something like -165, and I thought that these were 10 unit, 8 unit, and 6 unit plays. I would play a parlay to win 24 units, which with a line of -165 I would need to risk 40 units more or less.
I usually try to make the parlay so that the line is close to 1 to 1 or even positive. But, it just depends. I don't want to have more than 2 or 3 plays in a parlay, so the line might be negative.
Sometimes if a team has been weak lately I won't play a big line at all. I did that with the Lakers for a while and I am glad because they got creamed. I think I took the other teams + the points and I won all those games.
Its funny though, if the line setters put a big line on a team, usually they are not playing sloppily lately, not 100% of the time but usually, but I always check this to make sure.Comment -
People I am tailing part II
Jesse the Body, the guy is nuts but he is somewhere over 70% using spreads. He doesn't play very many plays, but he doesn't have to with that kind of record. He is 8-3-1 72.7% (+7.1 units)
I usually look at Paco's thread, I don't tail him, just see what his gang is up to.
There is a military guy who is posting from Iraq, I forget his name, I look at his thread. I think his screen name is Avon, I'll have to check.Comment -
People I am tailing part III
Angryblack - this guy is really really good.
We should chip in and get him an iPod and send it to him. How much does an iPod cost anyways?
He posts from Iraq. Can you imagine? He is a war fighter and takes time out to fool with us idiots.
I think that SBR should get him an iPod. SBR management are you listening?Comment -
People I am trailing part IV
himeshforex
This guy is pretty good. I always look at his plays, don't always agree with them. I like the way he plays money lines in parlays to keep the line he has to lay down lower. You could learn a lot from this guy. WARNING - when himeshforex loses he goes 0-4 or 0-3 or whatever.Comment -
any more plays curious, or are we done for today?Comment -
Monday, Jan 10
Boston -500 50 units to win 10 units (this line may change, most places don't have it posted yet. Whatever the line I am laying to win 10 units).
Chicago -500 50 units to win 10 unitsComment -
Mon Jan 10 NCAAB
Not much going on in NBA, here are two small NCAAB plays
Austin Peay -600 ML 12 units to win 2 units
Elon -170 ML 3.4 units to win 2 unitsComment -
Mon Jan 10 NHL
These are small plays, don't go crazy on them.
Toronto +160 1 to win 1.6
Detroit -110 1.1 to win 1Comment -
where do you get ncaab plays? do you cap them yourself?Comment -
Mon Jan 10 Horse Racing
Don't go crazy on these, just having a little fun.
Play all of these the same way 1 unit on the Win, 2 units on the place, 4 units on the show. Let's make a unit $10 today just for fun.
fairgrounds
5 Dancinfromthegitgo 6-1
6 sweettouch 4-1
8 Eighth At Citypark 9-2
9 Looks Purrrfect 6-1
10 Deputy Soldier 10-1Comment -
What?
Where do I get them? I don't get them anywhere, I cap them. The only plays that I get from someone else are the NBA totals and I said in one of the posts who I get those from.
I do get NFL plays from one of my friends who is a very good capper but I'm not disclosing who that is. I don't play very many NFL plays.Comment -
LOL I just assumed the crackhead term was an insult due to the fact that all these dudes seem to be addicted to watching livescore screens, not even watching the games and just sit there waiting for a result, regardless of their lack of influence on the outcome, complaining bitching etc. Much as I imagine a crackhead waits there for his next hit.... Very apt really.
Your story is much more pleasant though.Comment -
I use crackhead two different ways. I use it as a term of affection like how I used it with my children. And I use it as an insult for idiots. You have to know both the context and whether I think the person I am talking to is a friend or an idiot to get the sense. LOL
My friends almost always laugh, the idiots almost always feel insulted (and rightly so).Comment -
Haha nice
It's even better when the idiots don't realise they are being insulted as well....Comment -
Btw you seem like you've got it pretty much down pat. I like Himesh as well for NBA ML, Laker Crazy for totals as well. I reckon Lyon is pretty good at the big NBA spread plays and Riggs has the best write ups for NFL / NCAAF. The rest is pretty much BS really.
BOL tonightComment -
Any expert Bridge players out there?
When I say expert I mean that you memorize all the cards which have been played and can tell how many of any denomination of any suit are left to be played at any point. I know expert bridge players who do this.
I used to play blackjack for a living. The player's edge is very low (assuming someone who counts cards using a good system and is playing where the playing conditions are good), so you have periods where you are losing no matter what you do. Sometimes long periods. So, I quit playing blackjack about six years ago.
I did find an approach which was awesome, we tested it but could not transfer the play style to the casino. Read on and you will see why that was.
The traditional counting systems out there are low level approximations. I will give you an example which shows why I say that they are low level.
Let's say that you have a 12 and the dealer has a 6 showing. Every counting system that I know of will tell you to stand in this situation. You obviously are hoping that the dealer will break.
If a bridge player was playing blackjack and knew the count of all the cards (which they will know, in this case the bridge player can ignore suit) the important good cards are:
7, 8, and 9 for the player
3, 4, and 5 for the dealer
the important bad cards are obviously the 10 valued cards
The reason for this is obvious, if the player's next card is 7, 8, or 9 the player ends up with 19, 20, or 21. If the dealer's hole card is 3, 4, or 5 the dealer has 9, 10, or 11 and hopes to get a 10 on the next card, or pull to a non breaking hand. Assume that you could see what the dealer's two cards are and the dealer has a 9, 10, or 11, you would be thinking "I am screwed".
A bridge player, of course, would know exactly how many 7, 8, 9, 3, 4, and 5s were remaining and could easily calculate the correct play. Let's say that there are plenty of 7, 8, and 9s and fewer than normal 10 valued cards. Along with fewer than normal 3, 4, and 5s. I would double down in that case.
There is no commonly used counting system that will tell you this.
A bridge player would know, however. And the double down will win more often than not if the deck has fewer than normal 10 valued cards.
I'll tell you how I came to this realization about bridge players being excellent at blackjack. I was staying at a hotel, playing in a blackjack tournament nearby, and the same hotel had a bridge tournament. I was in the elevator with some people and they asked me what brought me to that city and I told them I was playing blackjack in the tournament. And they started laughing. They were all expert bridge players and they explained about having to memorize each card in bridge and how blackjack counting systems were very poor approximations.
I begged these folks to work with me and develop (and play) a blackjack system based on knowing the number of remaining cards for every denomination of card, but they were not interested.
I ran all the numbers and came up with the strategy for knowing the player's total, the dealer's up card and the remaining number of the cards which would give the player/dealer 19, 20, or 21. I turned this into a counting system but you had to memorize the count of each denomination and keep it current throughout the game. I can't do it and brothers and sisters I tried. Bridge players can do this though. What are they, all the Rainman?
The best thing about this is that you don't need to "count", the deck being rich in tens doesn't mean that much any more. So you can bet table maximum after you have seen about 1/4th of the cards IF some of the denominations are either too rich or too low in terms of the number of that denomination remaining to be played.
The most often appearing 2 card total for the player is 13. You can make a 13 ten different ways. The 'common' counting systems don't help you with this hand. They only tell you if the remaining cards are rich in 10s or poor in 10s. But, for this total the 9 acts like a 10. So, you would also need to know the number of 9s remaining. The 8 and 7 are VERY powerful for this hand but most counting systems don't count these denominations. What you need to know are three pieces of information - 1) how many 8s, 7s, and 6s are left?, 2) how many 9s and 10s are left?, because these will make you break, and 3) What is the count of all the cards that give the dealer a great hand depending on what the dealer is showing as the up card?
I don't know any blackjack player who can give you these answers. I do know bridge players who could give you these answers.
Let's say that you have 13 on the first two cards and that the deck is dearth in 9s and 10s and rich in 6s, 7s, and 8s. I would double down on this hand in that case. If you know anything about blackjack and counting systems you are saying that I am crazy. And if the only information that I had was what the counting system was giving me, you would be right. But, if I knew how many 9s, 10s, 6s, 7s, and 8s were left and I knew that this was way in my favor then I would be an idiot NOT to double down.
So, any expert bridge players out there who memorize all the cards and can tell you at any time how many of each denomination of each suit are remaining? We can help each other become rich if you truly are an expert.
The stupid, idiotic, punk ass honky mo fo SBR moderators took away my PMs so you will have to answer this post in here. If anyone is qualified and interested I will post an email address in here for you to contact me with.Comment -
Hey Curious...great work on the thread man! By the way, I have some angles that I STILL need to be tested...I just don't know how to use sports data base man..I've tried and tried...I know that you do however, and I would be willing to give you fricken 250 points if you could legitimately backtrack my angles for the past 3-5 seasons with records / units won or lost...
I know you are very busy but I would appreciate the help!Comment -
Thanks in advance and keep on rollin' with your picks....look forward to your reply....Comment -
good work going on in here.... keep it up curious.Comment -
Put your ideas in this thread and I will see how much work it will take to validate them using www.sportsdatabase.com. If it isn't too much work I might do it, if it is a lot of work I won't do it.Comment -
Ha Ha...Ok Curious...I will put some in here and you just let me know...
1) For NBA and NCAAB---> Playing AGAINAT ALL 5 or more ATS Win streaks in a row (Ex. 5, 6, 7, 8 ATS Win Streaks in a row and playing AGAINST that streak)
2) For any ATS sport, playing on the team / total where Pinnacle's odds on that side / total is -111 or more
Those are just two examples....let me know!!Comment -
Been a while since I checked your thread Curious. So glad to see you still have your sense of humor. Good luck.Comment
