5-point rule

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  • No coincidences
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 01-18-10
    • 76300

    #1
    5-point rule
    NJ/PHI opened at 185 (or 185.5) and is now 190.5 at Pinny.

    If it closes this high, take the under.
  • Pauulzcappin
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 04-23-10
    • 20295

    #2
    Repeat with me: This-does-not-exist
    Comment
    • No coincidences
      SBR Aristocracy
      • 01-18-10
      • 76300

      #3
      Originally posted by Pauulzcappin
      Repeat with me: This-does-not-exist
      I've won quite a few bets in the past with it.

      No sure thing, of course, but I'd be leery of taking the over at 190.5.
      Comment
      • Pauulzcappin
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 04-23-10
        • 20295

        #4
        Start tracking it when you can. I'm pretty sure you'll find the results amazing.
        Comment
        • BrigadierPudding
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 11-07-09
          • 617

          #5
          I don't buy it either. If a book is willing to move 5 points, they obviously don't feel very confident in their number.
          Comment
          • No coincidences
            SBR Aristocracy
            • 01-18-10
            • 76300

            #6
            Originally posted by Pauulzcappin
            Start tracking it when you can. I'm pretty sure you'll find the results amazing.
            Doesn't happen very often.

            I remember LB's big play in late-November on the IND/LAC over. Line moved 5.5 points up, and the game wound up some 10-20 points under the total.
            Comment
            • Siresco
              SBR Sharp
              • 11-29-10
              • 334

              #7
              No Coin, I was gonna play this over anyway.. I think philly and the nets should score somewhere around 94 - 99 or something like that.
              Comment
              • dee_jas
                SBR Wise Guy
                • 12-09-08
                • 760

                #8
                Originally posted by No coincidences
                NJ/PHI opened at 185 (or 185.5) and is now 190.5 at Pinny.

                If it closes this high, take the under.
                Interesting, How much would the line have to drop from 190 to be a no play.
                Comment
                • lyon804
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 11-02-09
                  • 6526

                  #9
                  Originally posted by Pauulzcappin
                  Start tracking it when you can. I'm pretty sure you'll find the results amazing.
                  Originally posted by No coincidences
                  Doesn't happen very often.

                  I remember LB's big play in late-November on the IND/LAC over. Line moved 5.5 points up, and the game wound up some 10-20 points under the total.


                  For shits n giggles since this thread is started how about we track that theory right here. We will base it on the Pinny opener and closer. Thus far PHI/NJ is a play so lets track it for the hell of it and see how it works over the course of the rest of the season. Let's play each for an imaginary 1 unit and see how it goes.

                  If the total is 5 pts more or less at or near the closer somebody post it as a play. You don't have to play it, this is just for fun to see how good this theory works, deal?
                  Comment
                  • Pauulzcappin
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 04-23-10
                    • 20295

                    #10
                    Go ahead
                    Comment
                    • No coincidences
                      SBR Aristocracy
                      • 01-18-10
                      • 76300

                      #11
                      Originally posted by lyon804
                      For shits n giggles since this thread is started how about we track that theory right here. We will base it on the Pinny opener and closer. Thus far PHI/NJ is a play so lets track it for the hell of it and see how it works over the course of the rest of the season. Let's play each for an imaginary 1 unit and see how it goes.

                      If the total is 5 pts more or less at or near the closer somebody post it as a play. You don't have to play it, this is just for fun to see how good this theory works, deal?
                      Comment
                      • TakeIt
                        SBR Wise Guy
                        • 04-23-10
                        • 778

                        #12
                        Originally posted by No coincidences
                        NJ/PHI opened at 185 (or 185.5) and is now 190.5 at Pinny.

                        If it closes this high, take the under.
                        why wait for the close? why not take it now?

                        (i took the under at 186.5, and 5 minutes later it popped to 191)
                        Comment
                        • lyon804
                          SBR Hall of Famer
                          • 11-02-09
                          • 6526

                          #13
                          Originally posted by TakeIt
                          why wait for the close? why not take it now?

                          (i took the under at 186.5, and 5 minutes later it popped to 191)

                          Ouch! It moved agaisnt you.. Take it or leave it?
                          Comment
                          • LostBankroll
                            Restricted User
                            • 02-10-10
                            • 4538

                            #14
                            I was thinking about this nmber aswell. Its at 191 now. Last night I was thinking about the unde at 188.5 but didnt do it. I think if it goes to 192 or above im playing it and posting in here.
                            Comment
                            • No coincidences
                              SBR Aristocracy
                              • 01-18-10
                              • 76300

                              #15
                              Originally posted by TakeIt
                              why wait for the close? why not take it now?

                              (i took the under at 186.5, and 5 minutes later it popped to 191)
                              Because if it dips back under the 5 late, it's no longer a contrarian play.
                              Comment
                              • TakeIt
                                SBR Wise Guy
                                • 04-23-10
                                • 778

                                #16
                                Originally posted by lyon804
                                Ouch! It moved agaisnt you.. Take it or leave it?
                                i have no choice but to ride it out, otherwise i'd have to fade a 4.5 point middle. the thing is that at 191 i would have passed.
                                Comment
                                • BettingWizard
                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                  • 11-28-09
                                  • 6522

                                  #17
                                  I thought I read somewhere that if you fade big line moves you'll hit around 54%.
                                  Comment
                                  • lyon804
                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                    • 11-02-09
                                    • 6526

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by BettingWizard
                                    I thought I read somewhere that if you fade big line moves you'll hit around 54%.

                                    well we are gonna find out here about 5 pt moves on the total. It is a small sample size we'll get but hopefully we can draw some valid conclusions moving forward.
                                    Comment
                                    • kobefanatic
                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                      • 01-19-10
                                      • 9013

                                      #19
                                      i remember this theory being talked about by LB and shoe last season, it's quite effective
                                      Comment
                                      • firehoyt
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 12-02-10
                                        • 3569

                                        #20
                                        So, would it be a safe bet to play the under here or not?
                                        Comment
                                        • ebbearsfb1
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 12-07-08
                                          • 18815

                                          #21
                                          yea take the under if its 190.5 or higher
                                          Comment
                                          • lyon804
                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                            • 11-02-09
                                            • 6526

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by firehoyt
                                            So, would it be a safe bet to play the under here or not?

                                            Safe and bet don't belong in the same sentence. We are just tracking it, but you may bet it if you like.
                                            Comment
                                            • firehoyt
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 12-02-10
                                              • 3569

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by lyon804
                                              Safe and bet don't belong in the same sentence. We are just tracking it, but you may bet it if you like.
                                              Yes, this is an Oxymoron....but you got what I mean..LOL It's 191 on Bodog......Hmmm.......
                                              Comment
                                              • forloveofthegame
                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                • 06-01-09
                                                • 5288

                                                #24
                                                as meaningless as it seems 2 of my under plays that hit this year had similar movement
                                                Comment
                                                • firehoyt
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 12-02-10
                                                  • 3569

                                                  #25
                                                  192 now....
                                                  Comment
                                                  • firehoyt
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 12-02-10
                                                    • 3569

                                                    #26
                                                    WTH!!!!

                                                    Single #197856781 (Placed by Web)Basketball - NBA Lines (Game) Total
                                                    (701) Philadelphia 76ers vs. (702) New Jersey Nets Under 192 (-115) Tue@6:05p
                                                    Risk US$ 15.00 to win US$ 13.04
                                                    Comment
                                                    • vyomguy
                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                      • 12-08-09
                                                      • 5794

                                                      #27
                                                      Guys...nets and 76ers are good defensive teams...the reason the total is high is because of 76ers high scoring games recently. They wont keep shooting lights out every game....today's game total will go way under...just watch..it will be in 170s.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • hels
                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                        • 04-12-09
                                                        • 8767

                                                        #28
                                                        When you think about the psychology behind books moving lines it would appear Over should be the correct play when the line keeps going up. Why, because the higher the number the more likely it is people will bet the Under. So how is it appropriate to play the Under when that theoretically is what the books are asking for?
                                                        Comment
                                                        • BelieveTheHype
                                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                                          • 01-03-09
                                                          • 747

                                                          #29
                                                          I loved the under at 188.5 and can't believe it's where it is now.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • lyon804
                                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                                            • 11-02-09
                                                            • 6526

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by hels
                                                            When you think about the psychology behind books moving lines it would appear Over should be the correct play when the line keeps going up. Why, because the higher the number the more likely it is people will bet the Under. So how is it appropriate to play the Under when that theoretically is what the books are asking for?


                                                            Most have all kind of different opinions on this so we will track it here and maybe by the end of the season we can see if there are any valid conclsuons that can be formed albeit from a very small sample size moving forward.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • No coincidences
                                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                                              • 01-18-10
                                                              • 76300

                                                              #31
                                                              Considering the D the Sixers have been playing lately, you'd be nothing short of foolish to take the over now IMHO.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • LostBankroll
                                                                Restricted User
                                                                • 02-10-10
                                                                • 4538

                                                                #32
                                                                WTF I wish I had 192 I would POUND the Under.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Pride
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 04-12-10
                                                                  • 4238

                                                                  #33
                                                                  buy a point then lol?
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • hels
                                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                    • 04-12-09
                                                                    • 8767

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Originally posted by lyon804
                                                                    Most have all kind of different opinions on this so we will track it here and maybe by the end of the season we can see if there are any valid conclsuons that can be formed albeit from a very small sample size moving forward.
                                                                    I think it will be great to track this. My question was more hypothetical than opinionated because I believe playing the opposite of dramatic line movement is often the correct play.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Pauulzcappin
                                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                                      • 04-23-10
                                                                      • 20295

                                                                      #35
                                                                      15 minutes to tipoff and the line moved from 185 to 191.

                                                                      So instead of playing the over, we shall hypothetically play the under 191.

                                                                      1st play.
                                                                      Comment
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