MEM +4 @ PHO???? (*headscratch)

[MrShrink]

Rested MEM @ PHO off a road-to-home back-to-back? OK... MEM is on an 0-6 road skid, but they're rested and playing against a team they've beaten twice this year already. Stayin awaaaaaaaaayyyy, but still, i'm curious. Nothing on the injury reports for MEM. Latest team to succumb to the (probably planted and controlled in order to throw us all off... but that's another story) stomach virus? Any ideas?

[aman86]

memphis has to be the play here, suns struggled last night

[brahmabull117]

the OVER is the play here

5 straight matchups have gone OVER in phoenix and, honest to god, I think the suns put money on OVER for their games the way they scramble to score a ton of points in every game

[pokerpro44]

i agree with the over.gl.

[MrShrink]

agreed... over seems good. i would have to think that MEM is salivating at the thought of playing a tired PHO defense... so why +4? Just don't get it.

[Shifty107]

Also Nash played a lot of minutes last night. More than his average so he could be on tired legs tonight.

[MrSink]

I like pho and over here

[MrShrink]

I like pho and over here

got a reason? i'd really like to hear an argument for the line to be where it is considering all that i stated above... Strictly the road skid? Seriously? They can't go the rest of the year w/o a win on the road... Just really has me wonderin...

[815Sox]

Scratching my head too, thinking about playing either memphis or the over. Gonna throw some SBR points on Memphis

[dimon]

PHO is the play...line says it all for you...yeah MEM seems like a play, and looks too easy, but it is a trap I think...PHO will cover a short number here

[MrShrink]

Scratching my head too, thinking about playing either memphis or the over. Gonna throw some SBR points on Memphis

i've settled on parlaying MEM+4/under 218. Ol' man Nash can't carry them to a million pts every single night. 218 just seems a bit much for me.

[brahmabull117]

i've settled on parlaying MEM+4/under 218. Ol' man Nash can't carry them to a million pts every single night. 218 just seems a bit much for me.

you are insane to take the under here

every matchup between these 2 teams in phoenix have gone OVER in the last 2 years


yea the suns will be a little bit tired but all that means is that their defense will be extra awful


the other thing to consider here is that this will likely be a very close game. You get the possibility of overtime as well as the usual last minute scramble when teams are fouling and making shots to try to close the deficit and come back late in the game.

I'm expecting like a 118-116 type score in this one

[orlikowski]

I like memphis hear but am staying away from it. It seems to curious of a line. Phoenix is tired and should get bullied all night by memphis big men. I also like the over

[Milanboy]

I like the over here.

[NYSportsGuy210]

Can anyone get a number on how many points Suns score in the second game of a back-to-back? And in the second game of a back-to-back at home?

[JOHON8]

Rested MEM @ PHO off a road-to-home back-to-back? OK... MEM is on an 0-6 road skid, but they're rested and playing against a team they've beaten twice this year already. Stayin awaaaaaaaaayyyy, but still, i'm curious. Nothing on the injury reports for MEM. Latest team to succumb to the (probably planted and controlled in order to throw us all off... but that's another story) stomach virus? Any ideas?

Just because a team is rested doesn't mean they are going to play better in the NBA.

[MrShrink]

yea the suns will be a little bit tired but all that means is that their defense will be extra awful

yeah... cuz when the 36 year old reason that your team scores so many points plays 39 minutes LAST NIGHT and ON THE ROAD, has a gigantic game in which you still lose by 7 to a terrible team without a veteran leader due to a suspension (andre miller), and you don't even manage to crack 100 you should have NO PROBLEM AT ALL shootin the lights out over a better, rested MEM. Not sayin it's impossible, but seriously, dude.... use some LOGIC. "This is what happened over the past 2 years" just ain't cuttin it... Sorry....

Oh, yeah... And thanks for the revelation that being tired only affects you on ONE end of the court... learn sumfin new ev-er-eee day...

[MrShrink]

Just because a team is rested doesn't mean they are going to play better in the NBA.

great... you blew my whole system... back to the drawing board...

[Whippit]

nash gonna run you down pal

take your top regional triathlete, I don't care who it is.....Steve Nash will run em into the ground

against g-state his heart rate peaks at only 120 b/m....add 1 b/m for OT.....add 1 more b/m if cheerleaders are blonde & topheavy

your betting angle is a mirage....save ur $$$ brah

[gwiz]

I don't think it's such a headscratcher,when you learn to trust yourself more you stop questioning the number and just pick the side your instinct feels,your's says bet memphis. I have learned that if you trust that feeling as long as it's cultivated and not just a guess,you will do better in the end than if you try and figure out if they are trying to trick you,they are not.They lay as fair a number as possible all things considered and that's it

[todd24kb]

I actually have a parlay, Grizz ML and Under 218 for a small play. Hopefully both of us can win. GL!

[gwiz]

to your ? of why the low number,it reflects the reality of the grizz chances to win the game.

there is a million people who will look at this game see the suns playing the [who] and bet the suns.

Look at the pacer buck game for example.the line was set to reflect the computer simulation that the bucks are the favorite,it's not a trap,but people think the bucks suck so they take the hot team.I'm interested to see the end of that game

[MrShrink]

I don't think it's such a headscratcher,when you learn to trust yourself more you stop questioning the number and just pick the side your instinct feels,your's says bet memphis. I have learned that if you trust that feeling as long as it's cultivated and not just a guess,you will do better in the end than if you try and figure out if they are trying to trick you,they are not.They lay as fair a number as possible all things considered and that's it

well put, g... just a little uneasy in the stomach (do i have a virus?) when i see a line like that that swings right in the face of my gut like this. This virus thing has screwed with me from time to time recently (as it has for all of us, i'm sure) and has me a bit paranoid in situations like this, ya know? But yeah, you're 100% right. That's why i took MEM+4 and the under. Screw it.

[wtt0315]

it should be 6 -9 points. good luck to you guys but my play is phoe

[MrShrink]

to your ? of why the low number,it reflects the reality of the grizz chances to win the game.

actually, I was wondering why MEM was GETTING so many considering the situation. I really think that MEM is a stronger team than people give them credit for, and look at what PHO did last night against a terrible team. They've just (somewhat) recently gotten through a pretty grueling road trip that was laced with the stomach virus. Can make it pretty difficult for a team to get some momentum going through all that. Still think they can match up with the best on any given night.

[brahmabull117]

yeah... cuz when the 36 year old reason that your team scores so many points plays 39 minutes LAST NIGHT and ON THE ROAD, has a gigantic game in which you still lose by 7 to a terrible team without a veteran leader due to a suspension (andre miller), and you don't even manage to crack 100 you should have NO PROBLEM AT ALL shootin the lights out over a better, rested MEM. Not sayin it's impossible, but seriously, dude.... use some LOGIC. "This is what happened over the past 2 years" just ain't cuttin it... Sorry.... Oh, yeah... And thanks for the revelation that being tired only affects you on ONE end of the court... learn sumfin new ev-er-eee day...

1)stop looking at this back to back crap as end all/be all. It's one part yes, but it's a small part of it. The hawks just played their 5th game in 7th nights last night against New Jersey (after traveling from Orlando back home to play the Nets) and still scored 112+ points in the game. These are pro athletes, playing 2 games in 2 nights does not mean they lose all their energy (the suns earlier this year played a game against Utah, went home the next day and still had a game with 220 total points against the Lakers)

2)There is a strong possibility of a close game here. Like I said before, close games often go into overtime and you also often have the last minute scramble of teams fouling and hitting 3s to close a deficit. U saw it twice yesterday in both the Dallas and Portland game where there was a total of about 40 points scored in 4 minutes to cover the OVER spread on a game that was under the line nearly the entire time

3)all history/trends point to an OVER. Not only in terms of previous matchups but what both teams have done recently. The Suns last 2 home games have had an average total of about 227 points (224 vs LAC, 230 vs Wash)... the Grizzlies' last 3 games against high scoring teams have also averaged about 225 points (215 vs Denver, 222 vs AtL and 237 vs Houston). The suns are better offensively and worse defensively than any of those teams

4)basically you got 2 teams that are playing great on offense with zero defense facing each other...and you are gonna take the under?

[lunchbawks]

1)stop looking at this back to back crap as end all/be all. It's one part yes, but it's a small part of it. The hawks just played their 5th game in 7th nights last night against New Jersey (after traveling from Orlando back home to play the Nets) and still scored 112+ points in the game. These are pro athletes, playing 2 games in 2 nights does not mean they lose all their energy (the suns earlier this year played a game against Utah, went home the next day and still had a game with 220 total points against the Lakers)

2)There is a strong possibility of a close game here. Like I said before, close games often go into overtime and you also often have the last minute scramble of teams fouling and hitting 3s to close a deficit. U saw it twice yesterday in both the Dallas and Portland game where there was a total of about 40 points scored in 4 minutes to cover the OVER spread on a game that was under the line nearly the entire time

3)all history/trends point to an OVER. Not only in terms of previous matchups but what both teams have done recently. The Suns last 2 home games have had an average total of about 227 points (224 vs LAC, 230 vs Wash)... the Grizzlies' last 3 games against high scoring teams have also averaged about 225 points (215 vs Denver, 222 vs AtL and 237 vs Houston). The suns are better offensively and worse defensively than any of those teams

4)basically you got 2 teams that are playing great on offense with zero defense facing each other...and you are gonna take the under?

this
is
handicapping

[Pauulzcappin]

I like Memphis and the under. They matchup well against Phoenix and the only reason the last game on Phoenix went over was because of the double overtime. The total would of gone under by almost 25 points.

[brahmabull117]

I like Memphis and the under. They matchup well against Phoenix and the only reason the last game on Phoenix went over was because of the double overtime. The total would of gone under by almost 25 points.

that's 1 game, all of the 6 matchups in Phoenix before that all went way over


also The suns were only averaging 104 points per game at that point in the season, they really hadn't hit their offensive stride. They are now all the way up to 112 points per game at home and the grizzlies defense has just been awful in the last week or so (gave up 127 points to the Rockets)


this is basically the same scenario as the nuggets/suns situation. The nuggets and suns played earlier in the season when both teams were not in their best offensive rhythm and the game only had 194 points. They played a few days ago when both teams were clicking and there was 268 total points scored

[smarmy]

on Phoenix tonight. don't think that -4 is too much of a stretch. gl to all.

[MrShrink]

1)stop looking at this back to back crap as end all/be all. It's one part yes, but it's a small part of it. The hawks just played their 5th game in 7th nights last night against New Jersey (after traveling from Orlando back home to play the Nets) and still scored 112+ points in the game. These are pro athletes, playing 2 games in 2 nights does not mean they lose all their energy (the suns earlier this year played a game against Utah, went home the next day and still had a game with 220 total points against the Lakers)

2)There is a strong possibility of a close game here. Like I said before, close games often go into overtime and you also often have the last minute scramble of teams fouling and hitting 3s to close a deficit. U saw it twice yesterday in both the Dallas and Portland game where there was a total of about 40 points scored in 4 minutes to cover the OVER spread on a game that was under the line nearly the entire time

3)all history/trends point to an OVER. Not only in terms of previous matchups but what both teams have done recently. The Suns last 2 home games have had an average total of about 227 points (224 vs LAC, 230 vs Wash)... the Grizzlies' last 3 games against high scoring teams have also averaged about 225 points (215 vs Denver, 222 vs AtL and 237 vs Houston). The suns are better offensively and worse defensively than any of those teams

4)basically you got 2 teams that are playing great on offense with zero defense facing each other...and you are gonna take the under?

ok... you're right... i had NO valid points... my entire case rested on the fact that the suns played last night... that's all i had to go on... oh, wait... no... that was one of, like, FIVE factors that i named that COULD affect the outcome. You, on the other hand, present the past trend as a constant that will continue on forever and ever, as if you are Zeus, parting the skies. You are obviously not too interested in an honest exchange of thoughts and ideas, since you use skewed facts like "the Grizzlies' last 3 games against high scoring teams have also averaged about 225 points (215 vs Denver, 222 vs AtL and 237 vs Houston)." 3 out of their last 10 games have cracked 200, let alone gotten anywhere near 225.... Anyways, go ahead and run wild on me with your "rest" thing. Oh, and that whole foul-shots-at-the-end-of-the-game thing is always a grrrreat argument for an over... I mean, i'm sure the oddsmakers don't consider that there's a higher rate of scoring in the final 2 minutes of the game... Nevermind the fact that you're not paying enough attn if you've never seen it work the opposite way (long, forced shots in hurried desperation don't hit at a very high clip)... Anyways, good luck, champ!! Thanks for the insights!!!

[Pauulzcappin]

You have valid points but I'm interested on this particular matchup. So because Denver decided to play no defense and just exchange baskets does it mean Memphis will do the same thing?

70%+ of the public is on Phoenix and the over but the line has moved backwards. Good luck with your play tonight.

[brahmabull117]

ok... you're right... i had NO valid points... my entire case rested on the fact that the suns played last night... that's all i had to go on... oh, wait... no... that was one of, like, FIVE factors that i named that COULD affect the outcome. You, on the other hand, present the past trend as a constant that will continue on forever and ever, as if you are Zeus, parting the skies. You are obviously not too interested in an honest exchange of thoughts and ideas, since you use skewed facts like "the Grizzlies' last 3 games against high scoring teams have also averaged about 225 points (215 vs Denver, 222 vs AtL and 237 vs Houston)." 3 out of their last 10 games have cracked 200, let alone gotten anywhere near 225.... Anyways, go ahead and run wild on me with your "rest" thing. Oh, and that whole foul-shots-at-the-end-of-the-game thing is always a grrrreat argument for an over... I mean, i'm sure the oddsmakers don't consider that there's a higher rate of scoring in the final 2 minutes of the game... Nevermind the fact that you're not paying enough attn if you've never seen it work the opposite way (long, forced shots in hurried desperation don't hit at a very high clip)... Anyways, good luck, champ!! Thanks for the insights!!!

can you cut the condescending crap here and actually give a legit argument?? (and for the love of god, separate your thoughts with sentences and paragraphs, I don't like reading one long run on sentence that makes zero sentence)


1)how did I provide skewed stats?? I provided stats that are relevant. The grizzlies recent games against high scoring teams that play at a similar style to Phoenix have all gone way over the line. Why would I look at their game against the Utah Jazz when the jazz are the best defensive team in the league and the Suns are the worst defensive team in the league??


2)why the fukk are you looking at the Suns game last night against Portland as an indicator for this game?? Portland is a very tough defensive team that plays at a very slow pace and tends to control the tempo of their games. Memphis is none of those things...they play very porous defense on most nights and love to run up and down the court just like Phoenix does


3)have you even been watching Phoenix games recently?? this is team that would run up and down the court and shoot the ball in 5 seconds every play and every game if they could. They had 2 fairly low scoring games with the pacers and trailblazers but both of those teams are traditionally very slow paced defensive minded teams. The suns get their wish here in this game in playing a team that will let them run up and down the court. No surprise but their last 2 games against running high tempo teams with poor defense (the clippers and the wizards) all went way over the line

[brahmabull117]

You have valid points but I'm interested on this particular matchup. So because Denver decided to play no defense and just exchange baskets does it mean Memphis will do the same thing? 70%+ of the public is on Phoenix and the over but the line has moved backwards. Good luck with your play tonight.

well in this particular matchup, you have a very high tempo offensive team with a very bad defense playing another high tempo team with a very bad defense

the first game would have indeed go under if not for the Overtime, but the suns were not in rhythm or clicking on all cylinders in that first game the way they are now

[MrShrink]

can you cut the condescending crap here and actually give a legit argument??

That's rich... I start a thread where I humbly admit my confusion and ask for a contradictory perspective... no, actually... there was NOTHING to contradict at that point, from my side, as I stated no predictions.... Then you jump on and start berating me like a whiney lil' child and tell me i'm insane because you disagree with a few observations of mine.You then feel the need to try to take it to me, probably because you don't have a g/f, or something, and tell me to cut the condescending crap... Anyways... Again.... gl with your picks, bro... ez