Deep_Rest's Thread Losers Only Plz.

[Deep_Rest]

Busy again today so I'll keep it brief

Betting summary: MIN 1 unit, ATL 5 units.

MEM@LAC(-1): No bet because the Clippers show flashes of greatness at home, but they're still the Clippers. 0 units LAC.

IND@ATL(-3.5): LOVE this matchup. I like IND coming off a big home win going away and ATL coming off an away loss going back home. I bought the .5 a point just in case but I'm going big on this one. 5 units ATL.

BOS@CHA(+6): I'm not going to bet a 6-point away favorite. 0 units CHA.

TOR@DET(-2): TOR is now my 2nd worst team after yesterdays 3-unit loss. I refuse to bet them for awhile. I'll side with the hometeam though. 0 units DET.

MIN@CHI(-9.5): Another instance of Vegas giving MIN too many points. 1 unit MIN.

UTAH@DAL(-5): Revenge game for UTAH. I think DAL will pull away in the end though. 0 units DAL.

CLE@HOU(-9): CLE is a mess but they've had 2 days to regroup. I like them to keep it close. 0 units CLE.

MIA@SAC(-9): MIA owns SAC in previous years, and this year, they're even better. I like MIA to cover this one but I don't bet on away favorites 6 pts or more. 0 units MIA.

Well, best of luck today!

[Deep_Rest]

Good stuff, ATL

Today: 1-1 bet games for +3.1 units, 3-5 all games
Totals: 20-16-0 bet games for +1.9 units, 46-45-2 all NBA.

[Deep_Rest]

Going to the Q today to watch the Chargers smash the Chiefs so once again I'll keep it short:

Betting summary: only 1 unit POR today since I didn't do much research

NO@PHI(PICK): PHI
DEN@NY(OFF): should be -3.5 or so. NY
LAL@NJ(OFF): maybe -10? LAL
POR@SA(-8): POR
CLE@OKC(-12.5): OKC
ORL@LAC(+6): LAC

Best of luck, everybody!

[Deep_Rest]

Updated stats: 20-17-0 +.9 unit bet games, 49-48-2 total NBA.

Here's today's matchups and picks:

Betting summary: 1 unit MIA, 3 units MEM

NO@MIA(-10.5): This line opened at 9.5 and is now 11.5 at most places. I guess I'm glad I got in at 10.5. The matchup tonight is featuring two very good defensive teams. Except MIA definitely has the better offense, is at its homecourt (which actually has pretty weak attendance), and NO is on b2b games. MIA is on the upswing while NO is going the opposite direction. MIA is currently on a 7-cover streak. One thing that concerns me is that NO is 9-0-1 vs the spread in its last 10 meetings vs MIA. The Heat are a quite a different beast this year, though. Gimme the Heat, but 10.5 is too many points to bet multi-units. 1 unit MIA.

IND@CHI(-8): The Bulls are in the midst of a very successful homestand (minus that 1 away game at Cleveland), winning all of their home games since Boozer returned, beating the likes of the Lakers and OKC. I don't see IND disrupting this streak. Although 8 is a pretty large number, I think it's about right. Danny Granger is listed on the injury report with an injured foot but I expect him to play. He is in a funk, though. Will Indiana play close because of a rivalry game? Without Granger at 100%, I don't think they will. 0 units CHI.

POR@MEM(-3): POR just got smashed by SA last night and must now travel to MEM. POR, a consensus playoff pick, is struggling mightily on the road and I feel comfortable laying 3 on MEM. There isn't much evidence to support myself, just consider it a hunch. 3 units MEM.

MIL@DAL(-7.5): MIL has been on a pretty nice resurgence lately, besting 3 out of 4 since Bogut's return–that one loss being to the even hotter Heat. Dallas has won 12 in a row and I think that continues tonight. I still think MIL can make a game out of it but I'm not going to bet against the hottest team in the league. 0 units MIL.

GS@UTAH(-11): GS is on a miserable 6-game losing streak and is 3-10 on the road. Curry is day-to-day and now Raja Bell is on the injury report. These are two role-players that have a pretty big impact on their teams. This is a no-bet for me since I like to give a week on a starter who is injured for the team to make adjustments. 0 units UTAH.

[Deep_Rest]

Another chicken dinner baby! Thank you Memphis and Miami.

Tonight: 2-0 bet games for +3.5 units, 5-0 all games.
Totals: 22-17-0 for +4.4 units, 54-48-2 all NBA so far.

[Deep_Rest]

Busy again today, gotta keep it brief.

Betting summary: 1 unit GS.

PHI@NJ(+1.5): Trap game. No bet for me but a slight lean NJ. 0 units NJ.
TOR@CHA(-5): TOR is the better team but they are so bad away. CHA ambushing the Nuggets its still fresh in my memory. 0 units CHA.
LAL@WAS(+10.5): 10.5 pt. home dog...after going the distance vs the Lakers @Staples. Then LAL struggles with NJ. Bynum is back, but not worth THAT many points. Still my self-imposed ban on betting on/against the Lakers prevails. 0 units WAS.
ATL@DET(+4.5): ATL is starting to make a push. 0 units ATL.
SAC@HOU(-9): Houston is playing great basketball with their under-talented squad. 0 units HOU.
ORL@DEN(+2.5): Nene has been on fire the last few games, but Howard will extinguish his push. 0 units ORL. I would bet on this game, but ORL is bad ATS as an away favorite and all this Carmelo drama...no thanks.
MIN@GS(-2.5): GS has lost a whole bunch in a row (7-games?). MIN always starts out fast...looks like they're going to upset, then collapse in the 4th. Neither team plays defense. Steph Curry out till at least Saturday. GS has owned this series. Monta Ellis has a huge night, 35+ bank it. 1 unit GS.

[Deep_Rest]

Well Monta Ellis had 34 I guess that was close enough. Good stuff GS!

Tonight: 1-0 bet games for .9 units, 3-4 total games
Totals: 23-17-0 bet games for 5.3 units, 57-52-2 all NBA so far (since I started).

[Deep_Rest]

Large selection of games today to choose from...hopefully my luck (skill?) can continue!

Betting summary: PHI, NO, CHA, 1 unit.

CHI@TOR(+6): I used to like TOR when they pulled out wins against the Celtics and go to 3OT vs OKC, but they seem to be out of gas now. This will further be impacted by TOR playing b2b games coming from a loss @CHA. The most important factor in this game is Derrick Rose, who injured his wrist vs IND a couple nights ago. It looks like he'll be going tonight but I don't trust players playing through injuries. CHI is 5-6 on the road while TOR is 6-6 at home. CHI is on fire though and even without Rose at 100% Noah and Boozer should be able to dominate the glass as well as create some easy layup opportunities against a smaller TOR. I expect them to combine for about 25 rebounds. I'm staying clear of this game though, there's no telling how well Derrick Rose is, and TOR may be able to pull a surprise rally–Bargnani is good. 0 units CHI.

BOS@NY(+4.5): There's a lot of hoopla surrounding this game. If you really want to get in-depth, there are lots of other threads floating around. My opinion is to stay far away from this game. I think the spread is pretty sharp and I think it can go either way. Boston has won 10 in a row, while NY has won 8. The thing that pops up in my eye is that NY is 6-5 at home. I also had to peruse my notes to find out when BOS played their last game. It's been 3 days since BOS played a game and I think this might be a case of getting TOO much rest. If this were a playoff game, (which is getting increasingly likely) I'd side with the Celtics, but I think NY brings it. 0 units NY.

LAL@IND(+4.5): Once again, I can't bet on/against the Lakers since they're my favorite team. I'm looking for the Lakers to come out swinging tonight. Danny Granger is in a slump, and its their first game back from a road trip. Last game, at Staples, Hibbert was running the show and thoroughly outplayed Gasol. This time, the Lakers have Bynum back and I think he makes a huge difference. 0 units LAL.

LAC@PHI(-5): Short and sweet–PHI is on fire as of late while the Clippers are acting like the Clippers. Randy Foye might be coming back, not a big deal in my opinion. There was an article in the LA Times about the Clippers: Baron Davis said "I'm going to shoot the ball more" (or something to the same effect). I think this actually hurts the Clippers. 1 unit PHI.

CLE@MIA(-16.5): This is just sad. 0 units MIA.

HOU@OKC(-7.5): All the signs point to OKC this game. HOU isn't a successful road team, OKC is good at home. HOU is coming off b2b games (W over SAC) while OKC is on 2 days rest. Something is still bugging me about this game, though. HOU likes to keep it close when they lose...coming off a 6 point loss @MIL and a 3 point loss @CHI in their past 5 games. CHI was a 7 point favorite vs HOU and I know OKC isn't .5 better than CHI right now. Take OKC, but with peril. 0 units OKC.

SAC@NO(-10): SAC is coming off a big loss to HOU last night. NO is coming off an embarrassing loss in MIA, and a loss to PHI but should be rested. A homegame vs one of the worst teams in the league sounds like a good confidence-booster. NO was playing some exceptional defense until the 4th quarter vs the Heat...they will certainly stifle the offensive efforts of SAC. NO needs to put up some points though! Sacramento has covered their last 10 games vs NO. No word on Tyreke Evans, even if he plays, I wouldn't expect much out of him. 1 unit NO.

CHA@MEM(-9): CHA had a satisfying win last night against TOR. That makes up for not breaking 70 vs the Celtics a few days ago. MEM beat POR at home as a 3-point favorite, but POR is pretty bad on the road. I think MEM is laying too many points here. Even though CHA is terrible on the road, a sub-.500 team should never get 9 points. 1 unit CHA.

MIL@SA(-8.5): The injury bug can't seem to leave MIL. Bogut is on the injury report with "headaches" and John Salmons is there with back spasms. MIL is a good team when they're all healthy, as demonstrated by ending DAL's streak, but I can't take a team that is unhealthy. I have a feeling both these players will go tonight, but SA is arguably the best team in the league. 0 units MIL.

MIN@PHX(-10): It seems like MIN always puts up 40 in the first quarter, then somehow lose by 10+. There will be no shortage of points as both of these teams have good offenses with terrible defenses. The variance is too high in this one. 0 units MIN.

POR@DAL(-7): Well the gig is up, DAL finally lost. POR, however, is really unimpressive on the road. Both of these teams are defensively minded, but POR is only putting up 93 pts a game on offense while DAL doesn't have much trouble scoring. This will be the 4th road game in a row for POR and I think they're either going to bring it, or give no effort and look forward to their next home game. 0 units DAL.

There you have it! Good luck!

[GarbageMan]

Large selection of games today to choose from...hopefully my luck (skill?) can continue!

Betting summary: PHI, NO, CHA, 1 unit.



CHA@MEM(-9): CHA had a satisfying win last night against TOR. That makes up for not breaking 70 vs the Celtics a few days ago. MEM beat POR at home as a 3-point favorite, but POR is pretty bad on the road. I think MEM is laying too many points here. Even though CHA is terrible on the road, a sub-.500 team should never get 9 points. 1 unit CHA.

There you have it! Good luck!

Was thinking bout takin Charlotte in this spot, agree it's too many for the Grizzlies to cover......close to pulling the trigger...

[Deep_Rest]

Well yesterday didn't work out so well. CHA is pretty awful. I won't make the same mistake again.

Last Night: 1-2 bet games for -1.1 units, 7-4 all games.
Totals: 24-19-0 bet games for 4.2 units, 64-56-2 all NBA since I started.

Betting summary for tonight: NONE

Kind of a boring selection of games today...

WAS@NJ(-6): This is an ugly game. Washington convincingly swept NJ last year and covered 3/4 times. The bad news is John Wall, Yi Jianlan and Josh Howard are out. How will ex-Laker Sasha Vujacic factor into this game? Washington is 0-12 as the away team while NJ is 4-8 at home. There's also no way I'm going to lay 6 points on NJ...although definitely a favorite, they're still an awful team. 0 units NJ.

ATL@BOS(-7): This has become somewhat of a rivalry over the past few years, so I think both teams will bring it...especially ATL who was embarrassed earlier this season. ATL's last game was a disaster as they lost to DET by a wide margin. The Celtics are nearly unbeatable at home but injuries to Rajon Rondo, and Shaq leave this game unbettable for me. I'll blindly side with the healthier team. 0 units ATL.

SA@DEN(+1.5): The away team covered (and won) all 4 games last year. I don't like SA coming off b2b games though–especially after a "lucky" win vs MIL. Since Chauncey Billups is out tonight, that automatically eliminates me from betting on the Nuggets. This is either a no-bet or on SA for me. DeJuan Blair, who has really come into his own, is questionable for tonight so I'm taking no-bet. 0 units SA.

There it is! No NBA action for me today...BIG on the Chargers though! Best of luck everybody!

[GarbageMan]

Was thinking bout takin Charlotte in this spot, agree it's too many for the Grizzlies to cover......close to pulling the trigger...

Dodged a bullet there....... phew...

[Deep_Rest]

Nice no-bet lol. Just like in poker, the hands you don't play can save you money too!

[Deep_Rest]

Betting Summary: IND, SAC, PHX, 1 unit. LAL, NO 3 units.

NJ@TOR(-4.5): No bet for me since both Andrea Bargnani and Jose Calderon are questionable. Not much else to say about this game...don't bet it! 0 units TOR.

MIA@NY(+5.5): All the historical data between these two teams is useless since they've changed so drastically from last year. NY gets Stoudemire and Felton, and of course MIA gets Bosh and James. I see a lot of people going wild on NY tonight, but I think this is a case of sharps trying to be too sharp. We have no idea how these teams are going to play each other...it's like making a blind bet for chrissakes! How can people bet this game?! With no useful historical data, you're just trying to pin the tail on the donkey. MIA is the better team, I'll side with them. 0 units MIA.

CLE@IND(-8.5): This game has got me kind of spooked. Did CLE really just hang with MIA 2 days ago? Were they determined to get revenge on LeBron or have they turned a corner on a massive losing streak? IND on the other hand has been beaten 3 in a row by ATL, CHI, and the Lakers Has anybody seen Danny Granger? In two meetings so far, IND has won both by 14 and 11 points. I think that CLE-MIA game was a flash in the pan and IND recovers by demolishing this travesty of a team. 1 unit IND.

LAL@PHI(+5): OK. I finally cracked. I absolutely had to bet this game because it is such a steal. I believe Vegas is manipulating this game to snap PHI's 9-game covering streak. The line should be at least 8. With Bynum back, we should dominate the glass and make short work of PHI. Lakers have won their last 3 in PHI. 3 units LAL.

LAC@DET(-3.5): Just as with yesterday's WAS/NJ game, I won't bet 2 bad teams since too much stuff can go wrong. DET can surprise people at home, though. Griffin might be out. 0 units DET.

CHA@ATL(-6.5): I learned my lesson betting CHA on the road when they lost to MEM by 30 or something (spread was MEM -9). There's no way I'm betting them here against a better-than-MEM-but-getting-2.5-pts-less Hawks team. Must be ATL playing b2b games. 0 units ATL.

SAC@OKC(-11.5): This is a system play for me. Anytime a non-elite team (Elite teams: LAL, BOS, SA, MIA) is favored by 11 or more, you bet the dog. Further encouragement is that SAC led NO in NO for most of their matchup before collapsing down the line. I think NO and OKC are about on par with each other so this is a rare opportunity to make some money off the Kings! I wouldn't go crazy with this one, though...SAC is still a pretty bad team. 1 unit SAC.

UTAH@NO(+1): NO is on a pretty terrible streak as of late. UTAH also embarrassed NO earlier this season. However, this is the game NO gets back in business. Mehmet Okur is probably debuting tonight but I think that will hurt team chemistry. He's been a long time member of the Jazz, but like Bynum, I don't expect him to play too much. 3 units NO MONEYLINE.

MEM@HOU(-4): Both these teams are coming around. MEM recently with a slaughter of CHA and a nice win vs POR. HOU is winning games they should, while games they should lose are usually pretty close. I think this line is spot on and I won't touch it. I'll lean with HOU. 0 units HOU.

PHX@DAL(-7): PHX is kicking off a 3-game road trip while DAL is ending a 6-game home stand tonight. Both these teams are healthy but I think PHX comes out extremely focused. They've been struggling lately but tonight they at least cover–possibly win. 1 unit PHX.

MIN@POR(-9): POR at home vs one of the worst away teams...easy money right? I wouldn't be so sure, MIN always seems to get an early game surge then drops off later. I think this happens again. I like MIN to get 35+ points in the 1st quarter and be up by 7-8 points, then slowly decline to a loss. Brandon Roy is also out tonight. MIN gets a backdoor cover tonight. 0 units MIN.

Come on baby! Daddy needs a new car!

[Deep_Rest]

Good showing tonight. Still disappointed in SAC and PHX, but I won't complain.

IND(-8.5) 1 unit WIN, LAL (-5) 3 units WIN, SAC (+11.5) 1 unit LOSS, NO (+1) 3 units WIN, PHX (+7) 1 unit LOSS.

Tonight: 3-2 bet games for +4.5 units, 7-4 all games.
Totals: 27-21-0 for +8.7 units, 72-61-2 all NBA since I started.

[Deep_Rest]

OK. Well I took a 2-day break because of other obligations but let's get back to business.

Betting Summary: NO, DAL, 1 unit, MIL 3 units.

ORL@ATL(+2.5): ATL has been one of the most frustrating teams this year. ORL isn't a safety net either because they've been miserable covering as an away favorite. Both teams seem to be losing traction. However, ORL has dominated ATL since the '10 playoffs. During that series, ORL won by 43(!) and 14 in ORL, then winning by 30 and 14 @ATL. The teams have met twice this season, both in ORL–ORL took the first game 93-89 and ATL won the 2nd 80-74. This is misleading though since the ATL win this season was during "sick-gate" and half of ORL was out. I'm giving a slight lean towards the Magic, but I'm not going to bet since there are some major lineup changes occurring. I would recommend not betting any game involving ORL, WAS, and PHX for a week (MAYBE WAS, but it needs to be ideal conditions). 0 units ORL.

NO@IND(-3.5): NO swept IND last year 107-101 @NO and 101-96 @IND. In those games NO dominated rebounding 56-35 and 49-37. Rebounding is absolutely crucial when facing the defensively oriented NO team. The X-factor here is forward Danny Granger. He seems to be either very hot or very cold. I like the NO defense to smother Granger and NO comes out on top with a close win. 1 unit NO.

UTAH@CLE(+7): CLE rallied in OT and beat NY 2 nights ago. Is that a reason to board the CLE train? No, but I don't think you can write them off as a loss either. UTAH is a nice 8-4 on the road while CLE is sitting at 5-7 at home. I'm looking for Cleveland to keep it close like they did vs NY and possibly earn a tough home win tonight. 0 units CLE.

CHA@WAS(-3.5): This game is disgusting. I suppose one useful tidbit of information is that CHA won one of its only 3 away games @WAS earlier this season, winning 93-85. Other than that, there is no reason to bet this game. Stephen Jackson has an arm injury but will most likely play, will Rashard Lewis play tonight? John Wall is out indefinitely, Arenas is gone, Yi Jianlan is out. How will WAS react to that huge disappointment vs MIA? 0 units CHA.

DAL@MIA(-7): Dallas is suiting up for a 3-game road trip vs MIA, ORL, and OKC. That's pretty tough, but if there's a team that can cover (not win), all 3 games, it's the Mavs. They are currently 8-1 on the road, and already beat the Heat this season, 106-95, in DAL. DAL is 15-9-2 vs the spread this year and 7 points is too much to give the Heat. The Heat are very different from years past, but DAL has still won 9 in a row against the Heat. I really like this matchup, but I won't play with fire and multi-unit bet because the Heat are VERY dangerous. 1 unit DAL.

PHX@SA(-11.5): I won't be betting any PHX games for another week or so because of the fallout from this recent megatrade. I'll side with SA on this one for no particular reason. 0 units SA.

MIL@POR(-3.5): In their last 7 games, MIL has played ORL, MIA, IND, HOU, DAL, SA, and UTAH. That's a pretty tall order but they've won their fair share of those games, going 4-3. POR should be somewhat of an easier game considering MIL's previous opponents. There's a huge laundry list of injuries for both teams so let's examine things further: Bogut has an injured arm among other things but should be able to play tonight, Maggette is doubtful which is a pretty big loss, Brandon Jennings is out indefinitely with a foot injury. Now for the Blazers: Nicholas Batum is supposed to play tonight, Marcus Camby is out with a shoulder injury, Brandon Roy is doubtful, Joel P is doubtful as well. I think the worst of it belongs to POR. Marcus Camby is their rebounding machine while Brandon Roy is their franchise player. MIL is just missing role players. I'll take MIL in the upset. 3 units MIL.

MIN@LAC(-4): I'm not seeing anything of particular value in this matchup. Blake Griffin vs Kevin Love, that's a good matchup. MIN is terrible on the road but if they are going to pick up a rare road win it will be vs the Clippers. I'll take the homecourt advantage in this one. 0 units LAC.

HOU@GS(PICK): GS is pretty good at home even though they are only 6-5 while HOU is 4-11 on the road. HOU has been playing good ball lately, though. The two teams met twice already this year with the home team covering both times. HOU is 9-1 against GS in their last 10 meetings. HOU should also have Aaron Brooks in the lineup after he recovered from a foot injury. I like HOU in this position, but will opt out of betting it since I want to see if Aaron Brooks really makes a difference. 0 units HOU.

[Deep_Rest]

Well, today sucked. Went 2-1 bet games and lost money. I'm done with the Bucks...down 25 units on them so far this year.

Tonight: 2-1 bet games for -1.2 units. 4-5 all games.
Totals: 29-22-0 for +7.5 units. 76-66-2 all NBA since I started.

[Deep_Rest]

December 21:

Betting summary: 3 units MEM, GS.

DAL@ORL(-3): Well everybody seems to be betting DAL this game, but I wouldn't be so sure. ORL is still a very good team and a title contender. Homecourt advantage is usually worth 3 points so Vegas is saying these two teams are equal. I still think ORL is better than DAL, even though DAL is playing better basketball. I won't be betting this game due to my 1-week self-imposed ban on ORL, PHX and WAS. If you bet for value, take DAL moneyline–but I like the Magic to cover in this position. 0 units ORL.

OKC@CHA(+6.5): This game has too much variance for me. OKC can play like a title contender at times, while struggling mightily against weak teams. CHA on the other hand, is on a 3-game losing streak, going 0-3 in their last road trip. Don't get me wrong, they are an awful team, but if they're going to pull a win out of their ass, this is the game to do it. 0 units CHA.

NJ@MEM(-6): MEM is the play here. This is MEM's last game before the 26th so this is the final game before the holidays...they'll want to go out with a nice win. NJ plays NO tomorrow so I think that's the game they go all out. NJ is 2-12 on the road while MEM is 8-5 at home. Besides the HOU game a few days ago, MEM is really playing well. They took SA to overtime (which is pretty much a win in my book), and won 4 previous before losing to HOU. They've covered 7 of their last 8 games. NJ is 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games. Let's do it Memphis. 3 units MEM.

PHI@CHI(-5.5): This is a no-bet for a couple of reasons. First, Joakim Noah hasn't been out for longer than a week so my self-imposed ban on injured starters is still in effect. Second, Derrick Rose keeps taking scary bumps and there's no way he'll last unless he starts getting the LeBron treatment by the refs. Third, they just lost at home to the CLIPPERS. On the Philly side of things, besides losing to two premium teams at home (Lakers and Celtics), they are on a huge upswing. They have covered 9 of their last 10 games. I'm looking for PHI to cover in this position. 0 units PHI.

GS@SAC(-3.5): This is technically an away game for GS, but I wouldn't put that much stock into homecourt advantage for tonight–there are still plenty of GS fans willing to take the drive to Sacramento. The thing that concerns me is that Monta Ellis scores 40+ points and they STILL LOSE. GS has lost 9 of its last 10 games, but let's take a breakdown of GS's last 10 opponents, HOU, @POR, MIN, @UTAH, MIA, @SA, @DAL, @OKC, PHX, SA. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that 1 win was vs MIN. Anyways, the point I'm trying to make is that they've had a tough schedule. GS makes swiss cheese out of SAC. 3 units GS.

MIL@LAL(-12): There's no way to put in words how much I hate the Bucks. They are playing so bad it's beyond belief. Then when I bet against them, they win. It just doesn't make any sense. But of course, if you're a returning reader, then you'll know the reason I'm not betting this game is because the Lakers are my favorite team and I refuse to bet on or against them (except vs Philly). Anyways, the MIL@POR game was over in the first 7 minutes. Now they're playing an even better Lakers team. Bynum keeps expanding his role and barring a probable reinjury, the Lakers will only get better. Teams coming off a blowout usually bounce back, but I'm not so sure about this Bucks team. They are that bad. 0 units LAL.

Well, that's all. I hope everybody breaks the books tonight! BOL all!

[Deep_Rest]

Tonight was one of those nights that makes you question whether the NBA is rigged or not. Lakers lose to the Bucks by almost 20? Really? Well I narrowly avoided a 0% day. My heart stopped when Radmanovic made that 3-pointer...why couldn't he miss it and I'd win right then and there? Oh well, the sweat paid off. I'll gladly lose the juice when I have such a miserable day! THANK YOU MONTA ELLIS.

Tonight: 1-1 bet games for -.02 units (rounded to 0 in my stats), 1-5 all games.
Totals: 30-23-0 bet games for +7.5 units, 77-71-2 all NBA so far.

[Deep_Rest]

Dec. 22

Betting summary: TOR, NJ, HOU, 1 unit. MIN 10 units.

DET@TOR(-5.5): This is the first away game for DET in 12 days. In their previous 4-game homestand, they beat good teams like NO and ATL while losing to LAC and TOR. That TOR game at home was a 116-120 loss. This is also the last home game for TOR before the holidays. I'm looking for TOR to come out swinging. Both Bargnani and Calderon are expected to start tonight. McGrady, Stuckey, and Hamilton will probably start for DET. TOR has won 5 straight against DET. DET is 2-12 on the road. 1 unit TOR.

CLE@ATL(-9.5): I'd like to trust ATL with 9.5 points but I can't because they are too inconsistent. CLE has 1 win in their last 10 games and have allowed 100+ points in 9 of those 10. It's pretty rare to see ATL top 100 points, and CLE consistently scores around 90-95 points a game. That's why I think this game might be deceptively close. 0 units CLE.

CHI@WAS(+3.5): Man, I was so close to pulling the trigger on WAS then I remembered my self-imposed 1 week ban on WAS, PHX, and ORL. This is the perfect opportunity for an ambush game. I won't go into detail since I'm not betting. 0 units WAS.

PHI@BOS(-9.5): PHI is surely remembering that 101-102 loss in PHI against the Celtics a couple of weeks ago. Now they go into the Garden looking to upset one of the best teams in the league that also happens to have the best home record in the NBA. Since their meeting, PHI has returned to playing like PHI and BOS keeps on rolling. The Celtics don't seem to be missing Rondo any as Robinson is a capable replacement. The Celtics are a beast that won't be stopped by PHI. Now to contradict myself, PHI just got man handled by 45 points and even though they are playing b2b, I think they'll be focused in this game. 0 units PHI.

OKC@NY(-1): No bet for me on this game. A streaking OKC but playing b2b games vs a streaky NY team that has lost 3 in a row. No thanks. 0 units OKC.

NJ@NO(-8.5): These two teams average nearly the same ppg, while NJ allows 97 points a game. However, the NJ defense has been playing well. So giving up almost 10 points is very considerate. I like NJ to keep it close. 1 unit NJ.

UTAH@MIN(+6): This is a rare game for me when I get excited several days before gameday. MIN is coming off a 6-game road trip going 0-6. UTAH is finishing up a road trip tonight going 2-1 so far. They have been playing good, but not great, and this is the game where they get ambushed. I'll gladly take the matchup of Beasley and Love vs Millsap and Kirelenko. Add that to the fact that MIN starts off fast then fades, while UTAH starts slow then builds momentum, I think MIN returning to home will keep them in this game in the later quarters. This is what its all about baby! 10 units MIN.

DEN@SA(-6.5): Denver was sooooooo close to winning in DEN and I'm sure they haven't forgotten it. George Karl and Greg Pops have met each other plenty of times so I don't think this will be a walk in the park for either team. But there are several things that lean in SA's favor. It looks like Chauncey is going to be playing again and I don't like it. If they are going to beat the Spurs, they will need to bring youth and energy, not try to out-think the experienced Spurs. To make things worse, Carmelo will not be playing tonight due to personal reasons. I'm not going to bet on a game where a franchise player is missing. 0 units SA.

HOU@LAC(-1): I think HOU is a good bargain for tonight. They are clearly the better team, and are an underdog (even if its by 1 point). The public is pounding LAC because of their 3-game streak @DET, @CHI and MIN. HOU is 7-3 in their last 10 games. LAC has been shooting ridiculous from the field, and I don't think that continues tonight. After all, they are the Clippers. 1 unit HOU.

Best of luck!

[Deep_Rest]

Thank you Deron Williams for missing that late free throw! I expected the Jazz to come back in the 2nd half, but over 40 points in the 4th? Man I really got lucky on that one! I won't be betting 10 units on the T-Wolves anymore.

Tonight: 2-2 bet games for +8 units, 3-6 all games.
Totals: 32-25-0 for +15.5 units, 80-77-2 all NBA so far since I started.

[Deep_Rest]

Only 3 games today and two of them I can't bet because of my self-imposed 1-week ban on PHX, ORL, and WAS games.

SA@ORL(-2.5): Out of the 3 teams in "The Trade" ORL has changed the most: getting Arenas, J.Rich, and Turkoglu back while Vinsanity, Pietrus, and Gortat are gone. SA has played a suspiciously low amount of away games vs quality opponents. Even though they are statistically the best team in the league, nearly all of those wins came either at home or away games vs weaker opponents. I can't bet this game, but I'll lean with ORL. 0 units ORL.

MIL@SAC(+2.5): MIL just dominated the Lakers, while SAC just threw away a good effort to lose against GS. Still, like I've said in a couple of games, I think MIL was preparing for the LAL game for a while which is why they played so well vs the Lakers while getting destroyed by POR. I'm looking for MIL to revert back to their bad ways and lose a game to SAC. This is a speculative play more than anything and I can't really support myself with statistics so I won't bet more than 1 unit. 1 unit SAC.

MIA@PHX(+6.5): I believe all the new PHX members are sitting out this game so PHX is undermanned. Do you trust Grant Hill guarding LeBron? I didn't think so. Grant is a great player, but he's too old and too brittle. There are mismatches all over the place and PHX has been terrible vs the spread lately while MIA has been on fire. MIA is probably overlooking this game in anticipation of the Lakers, but it won't matter–they are too talented. I think the Heat roll here. 0 units MIA.

Not much of a menu to choose from...a break is nice once in awhile! BOL

[Deep_Rest]

Updated stats

So far this season: 32-26-0 for +14.5 units, 82-78-2 all games.

Will probably be gone most of tomorrow so I'm posting my plays tonight. 5 units BOS and LAL. 0 units NY, DEN, and GS (I'm guessing this line to be 2.5-3.5).

[Deep_Rest]

Merry Christmas everybody! Anyways, here to update something. I took 5 units MIA +3.5 at -105 vig along with my LAL -2 at -110. Hopefully BOS can hold on and I'll lock in some profits with a potential jackpot of LAL winning by 3. Don't wanna be sitting by myself watching the game instead of being with my family! BOL all!

[Deep_Rest]

Well, I had an epic day of NFL last night... 12-2 so far in week 16. NBA, not so much. that BOS hurt on Christmas. Still on vacation so here's a summary:

ORL@NJ(+6.5): I think ORL are about to take off on a large winning streak, but their past problems of covering as away favorites hinders me from betting on this game. 0 units ORL.

DET@CHA(-5.5): What a junk game. No thanks. 0 units DET.

DAL@OKC(-1.5): Rick Carlisle, the DAL head coach is not going to be present for this game. I like the revenge factor as OKC was embarrassed earlier this season in OKC. DAL is too good to take anything more than 1 unit though. 1 unit OKC.

ATL@MIL(-2.5): 0 units ATL.

TOR@MEM(-6.5): 0 units MEM.

NO@MIN(+4): 0 units MIN.

WAS@HOU(-9.5): 0 units HOU.

POR@UTAH(-7.5): 0 units POR.

LAC@SAC(-1.5): 1 unit LAC.

PHI@GS(-3): 0 units PHI.

Sorry everything is so brief. Gotta enjoy my vacation! BOL everyone!

[Deep_Rest]

It's so painful when you pick 7-3 and still lose money.

Tonight: 1-1 bet games for -.1 unit (rounded up). 7-3 all of tonight's games.
This season: 33-28-0 for +9.4 units. 91-84-2 all games.

[Deep_Rest]

I really don't like spreads of 6-10 so most of these games are no-go's for me. Of course the spread of the LAL@SA game is 3.5 but I can't bet that game either.

I am however on DEN tonight. POR is coming off b2b and Denver is one of the hardest places to pull that off. This series is interesting as the hometeam usually blows the other away. 'Melo is coming back, Roy is still out. Yes, please. 5 units DEN.

[Deep_Rest]

Adding 1 unit MIL +9. My other 0 unit picks are as follows: IND, ORL, NY, DAL, LAL. BOL everybody!

[Deep_Rest]

Why did I add that MIL game

GJ on Denver though!

Tonight: 1-1 bet games for +3.5 units. 3-4 all games tonight.
Totals: 34-29-0 for +12.9 units. 94-88-2 so far this year all games.

In other news, I am 137-96 (58.8%) in NFL this year!

[Deep_Rest]

IND@WAS(-2.5): There are some games where I have to look at the line twice because I don't believe my eyes. This is one of those games. WAS has lost 9 of their past 10 games and find themselves a 2.5 pt. favorite. IND, on the other hand, lost their last 4 away games, but they were against @BOS, @CHI, @ATL, @MIL. Once again I'll remind you that MIL plays well at home. @WAS is a severe drop in talent from those 4 above teams. The only factors I see working against IND is b2b and Mike Dunleavy's eye injury. These two teams meet again on Friday in IND so I expect IND to cover at least one of these games. I might have to Martingale my way out of this one if they don't cover tonight...as long as the spread isn't crazy (IND-5.5 or greater) on Friday. 3 units IND.

GS@ATL(-6.5): GS is outclassed in this position. I think this line is a little on the low side because of GS's 3-game winning streak. This streak was @SAC, POR, and PHI, covering all 3 games. These aren't exactly powerhouse teams. ATL on the other hand, is a solid B+ team and should be able to give GS all they can eat. 3 units ATL.

CLE@CHA(-7.5): No thanks. 0 units CLE.

BOS@DET(+6.5): 0 units DET.

NJ@OKC(-10): 0 units OKC.

LAL@NO(+3): 0 units NO (I hope I lose this one!).

DEN@MIN(-1.5): 0 units MIN.

MIA@HOU(+5.5): 0 units HOU.

PHI@PHX(-5): 0 units PHX.

MEM@SAC(+4): Vegas is losing a ridiculous amount of money from people fading SAC. SAC is 7-20-1 vs the spread this year. I'm a believer that most teams will end up 50% +/- 5% ATS by the end of the year, however, SAC is so bad I don't think they come close. I was actually planning on betting this game, but after typing the above sentences, I am changing my mind. 0 units SAC.

UTAH@LAC(+2.5): LAC is on fire recently, winning 5 of their last 6 games. However, besides @CHI, none of the teams were that tough. UTAH is a lot better–a perennial playoff team headed by a HOF coach. 1 unit UTAH.

BOL everybody!

[Deep_Rest]

I'll take .6 units. I'm ready to throw down 10 units on IND provided the spread hovers around IND -3 on Friday. There's no way WAS sweeps them.

Tonight: 2-1 bet games for +.6 units. 5-6 all games tonight.
Totals: 36-30-0 bet games for +13.5 units. 99-94-2 all games this season.

[Deep_Rest]

I was driving back from Arizona so I wasn't able to post anything yesterday, but trust me when I say I went 3-0 but didn't bet anything.

Stats: 36-30-0 bet games for 13.5 units. 102-94-2 all games this season.

On to today:

Betting summary: 1 unit CHA, 3 units HOU.

NJ@CHI(-10): My accuracy on spreads of 10 and greater is so bad I'm sitting out on this one even though I feel CHI is a good bet. 0 units CHI.

WAS@IND(-6): Well, this sucks. I was planning on going 10 units on IND tonight if the spread was 4 or less. I am confident IND wins and covers at least 1 in the series so tonight looked like a really good bet. I guess Vegas is all over it. 6 points is too much for me to risk 10 units. I might involve this in a IND, BOS ML parlay or something but not betting vs the spread. 0 units IND.

GS@CHA(-3): I like CHA in this position. The new coach has seemed to light some fire into this struggling team. CHA has also won 4 of the last 5 meetings between the two. CHA's last two opponents were CLE and DET, arguably the two worst teams in the league. GS is a cut above those teams, but they haven't won an out-of-California away game in December. GS is 4-13 away. CHA is 8-7 at home. I still wouldn't put more than 1 unit on this transitioning team. 1 unit CHA.

NO@BOS(-5.5): Both of these teams are reeling. NO just got smashed @MIN by 15 points and then at home to the Lakers by 15. BOS on the other hand, was embarrassed @DET, losing by 12 to one of the worst teams in the league. On top of that, Kevin Garnett is out for awhile. I'm not going to bet games where a star player is out. 0 units BOS.

TOR@HOU(-9): Before their close loss to MIA 2 nights ago, HOU was really rolling by beating WAS, @LAC, @GS, @SAC, and MEM in a row. TOR is in the middle of the pack of those 5 teams so I think HOU rolls here. The thing that concerns me is TOR beat DAL in DAL a few nights ago. I'm not just talking about beating either, that was domination. The laundry list of injuries continues though for TOR and Bargnani is doubtful for tonight. The home team has dominated this series winning by a margin of 10+ points. I'm jumping on the HOU train tonight. 3 units HOU.

ATL@OKC(-5.5): ATL is a better road team than they get credit for. OKC is on a hot streak. I'm staying away. 0 units ATL.

DET@PHX(-6): I just got back from Phoenix and man is it cold! Sky Harbor was windy and chilly. Even though the game is played indoors, it might have some sort of effect on the older players on the Suns. i.e. Nash and Hill. Phoenix is also on a 4-game losing streak while DET just beat BOS. I'll pass on this one. 0 units DET.

PHI@LAL(-9.5): Finally LAL got back on track last game and beat NO. I think they roll again here but I can't bet on Lakers games. 0 units LAL.

Let's get it tonight! BOL.

[Deep_Rest]

Updated stats:
0-1-1 yesterday for -1 unit. 36-31-1 all bet games for +12.5 units.

Betting summary:
WAS, MIL 1-unit. UTAH 3-units.

BEST OF LUCK!

[ehafner]

nice thread

[Deep_Rest]

Updated stats:

Tonight: 1-0 for +.9 unit, 4-3 all games (had no Internet to post in the morning win was POR -3.5)
Totals: 38-33-1 for +10.3 units, 110-108-3 all games.

[Deep_Rest]

This point in the season is kind of like no-man's-land in terms of betting. Up until the new years, everybody is more of less on even ground (yes, even the Spurs and Kings). March and April, the playoff picture begins to emerge and playoff teams play with more emphasis. This is between those eras where teams haven't decided if they are for real or not–which makes it a lot more difficult to handicap games Example 1A LAL last night This is a spot where good teams might give you those WTF games as they take it easy before the final push towards the playoffs. To adjust for this, I will probably be taking less games–especially premium teams ORL, MIA, LAL, BOS, SA until mid-late Feb.

Betting summary: 1 unit MIN.

MIA@CHA(+9): I would usually take a home dog of this many points based on principle, but because of Gerald Wallace, their starting center being out for tonight, this is a no-bet for me. 0 units CHA.

GS@ORL(-10): ORL is really rolling as of late, covering their last 5 games. Still, they are 14-19 ATS this season. Funny thing here is that Bodog (my book) usually gives out .5 a point to the dog vs the other books. Instead, they are taking .5 vs all the major books and offering -10 as opposed to -10.5 like everybody else. This is very uncharacteristic and has me kind of spooked. The square play in my opinion is ORL, so why would Bodog, one of the squarest books, be offering BETTER odds on a square play? ORL swept this series last year, winning by 8 and 27. The 27 was at home. GS was actually leading most of the game vs the Heat 2 days ago which is pretty impressive considering they are pretty bad on the road. I'll be square and take ORL but for no money because something smells fishy about this game. 0 units ORL.

MIN@BOS(-8): This is another fishy game. The SBR live odds says over 80% people are betting on BOS. Covers, on the other hand, says 56%. Now I don't know which one is correct or closer to being correct, but its safe to say most people are pounding Boston. Why then, did the line move from -9 (opening) to -8 (now), if people are pounding BOSTON? It doesn't make any sense to me. Something is definitely up here. That being said, MIN is putting up some major points as of late, scoring over 100 points in their last 3 games, even putting up 113 vs the defensively minded NO Hornets. Kevin Garnett is going to be out which will give Kevin Love a major game here. I think Kevin Love is going to do 30+ points and 20+ rebs tonight. 1 unit MIN.

PHI@NO(-6.5): Another no bet because of Andre Iguodala. PHI just isn't the same without him. However, PHI has won their last 3 against NO. I think this will be a close game so I'll side with the large dog. 0 units PHI.

DET@UTAH(-9.5): UTAH has won at least their last 10 games vs DET. UTAH's games are a little too dramatic for me. They always seem to dig themselves into a 15-20 point hole, only to come back and win it in the 4th. One of these days, it's going to bite them in the butt and they won't just not cover, they'll flat out lose. DET on the other hand, is bad. Yeah, they beat Boston, but they were due for a win. I'll side with them tonight, but won't make a play. 0 units DET.

HOU@DEN(-7): At first glance, my lean was HOU. They were just embarrassed @POR and would probably play better the next game even if it is in DEN–one of the most difficult places to play b2b. The X-factor here is obviously Carmelo. He looked sloppy the other night vs SAC, but he's had a day to get back into shape and I think he takes over this game. Still, I won't bet this game because I don't know how Carmelo will produce tonight even though the Nuggets are capable of blowing HOU away without him. 0 units DEN.

Well that's it. Kind of a light day I suppose. BOL!