2half celtics -2 1x they are just getting it going the continue there roll and they should shoot better then 1half performance was horrible and howard is not getting anyone else involved he will ware down! Getting frustrated with the techs
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Ya i don't have anyComment -
Super Bowl XLV line
February, 4, 2011Feb 4
12:08
PM ET
US PresswireThe Super Bowl is coming up. Which one of these guys do Vegas wiseguys like?
I've been trying to make these line moves columns during the playoffs extra special. Instead of just one guy firing off on several games, I've offered 360-degree views of each game by bringing in multiple voices. The idea was to show how very sharp bettors and bookmakers can see things differently, whether it's because of homemade stats, gut instinct or situations. Everyone has an opinion, but not everyone can be right.
And that is certainly the case for Super Bowl XLV. This line is tighter than an Aaron Rodgers spiral and has been from almost the moment it opened. That's what happens at this point in the NFL season. One game remains and it comes on the heels of nearly a month of high-visibility football. At this point, anyone betting anything worth moving the line has seen enough of the two teams to come to the same conclusion bookmakers did as soon as the AFC title game ended: The GREEN BAY are a little bit better than theSTEELERS
When the line was first posted at Pack -2.5 (-110), sharp bettors jumped on it. They knew it wasn't going to get any better than that. And they were right: Over the past two weeks, the spread has pretty much hovered around Pack -2.5 (-120) or Pack -3 (+100). That also looks like this: Steelers +3 (-120), which means you are paying a premium to get the extra half-point for the Steelers. In fact, I'd venture to say most sharps have spent the majority of the past two weeks ignoring the sides and breaking down props. As Teddy Covers told me in a podcast this week, "We can sit out the BCS title game or the hoops title game, but sharps see too many opportunities in the props to walk away. I'll have 100 tickets in my pocket by Sunday."
Teddy told me about a great scene from this past Super Bowl cycle that took place at the Hilton, as soon as the props were posted on Thursday, Jan. 27. All over the floor were the bank wrappers that had been ripped from stacks of $100s that come in packs of $10,000. That's how excited the professionals were to make some bets on something other than the game itself.
Go Mad in Vegas
Insider is inviting fans to hit Las Vegas for an ********** weekend at Caesars during the opening round of the NCAA tournament. I'll be there, along with some sharps, to break down brackets before the games begin Now, between my props podcast with Teddy and with Hilton bookmaker Jay Kornegay, my Right Angles props video, my props contest column and when I appeared on Simmons' podcast, we've had plenty of talk about which props sharps like, which provide the best opportunities and which ones you should avoid. It's time to break down the game.
One question I've been getting a lot this week is: With two such public teams, will this be the biggest-bet Super Bowl ever? The record for highest volume in the state of Nevada is $94M, set when the Steelers played the Seattle Seahawks, according to The Mirage's Jay Rood. Right now, he doesn't see that record being broken. "For one, the money line doesn't offer a great opportunity for someone to come in and bet $3 million to win $500,000. The odds on both teams are too low. That would happen at three or four books around town -- so you are taking big money out of the equation. Also, who knows if the planes can get people here. The weather has made that tough around the country and right now I am seeing less bodies than I normally do."
But how are the bodies he is seeing sizing up the game? For Rood's take, as well as many others, I spanned the world of wiseguys (and gals). I spoke to sharps who study stats, sharps who study trends, even the sharpest astrologist I know, Courtney Roberts, who truly uses her celestial power for good by examining the stars to predict outcomes -- against the spread!
So here we go:
Matchup: Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Green Bay Packers
Line moves: Packers opened as 2.5-point (-110) favorites, currently 2.5 (-120) in most places. Some books are offering Steelers plus-3 (-115)
Total: Opened at 44, moved quickly to 46 overnight, now down to 44.5.
Geoff Kulesa, founder of wunderdogsports.com: "I don't think this is a slam dunk for the Packers. But I do think they have the edge. What I did in this Super Bowl is look at four things: how Pittsburgh's offense performed against defenses similar to Green Bay's, how Pittsburgh's defense performed against offense's similar to Green Bay's and then vice versa. Both of these teams are mirror images, No. 1 and 2 in defense in points allowed and close to each other points produced: Green Bay is 10th and Pittsburgh is 12th. But in the second half of the season, Green Bay gave up fewer points than Pittsburgh. Against great defenses like Green Bay's, Pittsburgh produced 18.2 points per game. Green Bay's offense against great defenses got 20.3 points per game. Pittsburgh's D against similar offenses to Green Bay's allowed 15.3. Based on these numbers you would expect Green Bay to score in the range of 18 points. Now look at Green Bay's defense against similar offenses to Pittsburgh and they held those teams to 7.8 ppg. They totally shut down offenses similar to Pittsburgh. If you believe that, a sample of five or six games, Pittsburgh might struggle to score here. I don't see the Steelers getting more than 20 points. Actually 17. I can see a 21-17 game here. This analysis pointed me to say Green Bay has the advantage."
Dan Fabrizio, founder of Sportsinsights.com, the sports handicapping info site dedicated to examining contrarian views: "This is a really evenly bet game, it has been sitting around 51 percent or 52 percent at all the books, whether they are square or sharp. Usually there is some kind of opinion on a game like this because of the extra week and the media discussing it constantly. But there's just not a lot of one-way action. It's really evenly split within 5 percent at every book. Bookmakers will tell you they are trying to handicap the way the action is going to come in, not the game itself. So they were expecting a lot of Green Bay money and handicapped it that way, which is why we are so excited about the value in Pittsburgh. We're definitely coming out with Pittsburgh as our side because of the value. You can get some plus-3 out there at minus-120, I really think this line should be a pick. I don't mind paying the price for a number like three. I am thinking by the time kickoff comes it will be all threes across the board."
Jay Rood, bookmaker at The Mirage: "Right now we are Green Bay minus-2.5 (-120). I have actually been playing with the juice a little bit, moving it up and down, to see where the money comes in so I can spot some trends. Right now we are getting more Steelers bets by a 2-1 margin. And from this point forward I think we will see a little more Steeler money. Not a ton, but some. Early on we got a lot of sharp Packer money, when it was minus-2.5 (-110). Same with the under in the total. The public is coming out and betting the over when we are sitting at 44 or 44.5, but every time I move it to 45 the sharps come back and pound the under."
Paul Bessire of predictionmachine.com, which simulates the game 50,000 times: "We like the Packers to win in this scenario 22-19, 60.5 percent of the time they win straight up and they cover 56 percent of the time. We love that they get the number under three points because that will happen 6 percent of the time. I think it will come down to who makes the bigger plays on passing defense and Green Bay will win because of that. According to our evaluations right now, Pittsburgh's offensive line is its greatest weakness and would give up a sack on about 9 percent of passing plays, tied with the Carolina Panthers for second-worst in the league. It's a huge opportunity to exploit a weakness. The Packers' defense gets a sack on about 9 percent of passing plays, second-best, which is tied with the Steelers. Although the advantage for Green Bay there is that the Packers' O-line gives up a sack on only about 6 percent of passing plays."
Fezzik, two-time winner of the Hilton handicapping contest: "Anyone who is making the line on this game can see that Green Bay is a 13-3 caliber team. It had a difficult schedule and the ball bounced badly for them a couple of times. They are a little bit better than Pittsburgh is. But the Packers have a suspect running game and the Steelers have experience, so I like the line as it stands. It is correct. If you could have gotten Green Bay at pick you'd like that and if you can eventually get Pittsburgh plus-3 at -110, you'd jump on that. But right now, the way it's priced, there is no great advantage."
Courtney Roberts, astrologist and founder of her own handicapping site: "It's Mike Tomlin who ends the game in the best planetary condition; his Pisces Sun and Moon setting in the west with Uranus, watery and mysterious in Pisces, followed right behind by a fiery, dramatic combination of the Moon conjunct Jupiter in early Aries. Mike McCarthy's really locked into the game chart/planetary pattern, just like Tomlin and Big Ben, but in a more difficult and restricted way. That's pretty typical of what you see in these big games: a tight nexus of planetary connections that brings such disparate souls together, locked in mortal combat, at this fateful moment in time. For McCarthy, the Aquarius Sun-Mars conjunction is separating from a conjunction with his natal Saturn (16 Aquarius), and square (90-degree angle) to his natal Sun-Mercury in Scorpio. It's also square Rodgers' Moon in Scorpio (Rodgers' Moon is very close to McCarthy's Sun-Mercury -- go figure.) Too much Saturn (limits, restrictions) and too many squares for my taste."Comment -
Fairfield taking it on the chin at home from Rider.
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A veteran of numerous big games, Vaccaro told Covers.com earlier this week that it’s shocking just how many people have no idea who they are going to wager on when the Green Bay Packers (-2.5) take on the Pittsburgh Steelers at Super Bowl XLV.
If you’re one of those bettors still unsure about your plays, the clock is ticking. Super Bowl XLV is scheduled to start at 6:25 p.m. ET from Arlington, Texas. But don’t fret and start throwing money at the wall, hoping to see what sticks. Here’s a look at some last-minute value plays that could get you back up to speed on the big game:
Play the under
If you’re stuck on the over/under in the hours before game time, just know that the total is the one number that is expected to move by both covers.com/articles/articles.aspx?theArt=222157# and Las Vegas sportsbooks.
Much like Monday Night Football, the public wants to see a high-scoring Super Bowl and has bet accordingly. The total is currently rising at just about every book, coming up as high as 46 in Las Vegas. Most markets are dealing 45.5 points, which gives you great value on the under.
A lot of sharp money poured in on the under when the odds opened two weeks ago, taking it down as low as 44. Now, with the total climbing, bettors who are late to the party have a shot to go against such a strong public push. Sometimes it pays to be a procrastinator.
First player to score a TD
Prop bets aren’t just for squares anymore. Sharps pounded the opening odds for these Super Bowl specials, especially the “First Player to Score a TD” prop. Wiseguys have been hammering both QBs, Aaron Rodgers and Ben Roethlisberger, who have noses for the end zone when inside the 20-yard line.
Bodog.com currently has Rodgers and Roethlisberger set at +1200 to find the end zone first, but with all the attention on the scrambling quarterbacks, players like Rashard Mendenhall (+550), Greg Jennings (+650), Mike Wallace (+850) and James Starks (+850) have watched their value creep upwards.
Landing a running Rodgers or breaking Big Ben is a nice covers.com/articles/articles.aspx?theArt=222157#, but there is more value to be had in the guys they’ll be giving the ball to this Sunday.
Steelers moneyline
According to many sports betting insiders, most conflicted bettors will go with the underdog, hoping to see a great game while easing the damage to the sportsbook if they choose wrong.
If you are thinking about the Steelers at +3 or +2.5 – depending on where you shop – you might as well take Pittsburgh on the moneyline at plus money. Books have taken more action on the Pittsburgh moneyline heading into the game and have shaken up the odds more than once heading into the weekend.
In the hours before kickoff, you can find the Steelers to win outright around +125. Some markets have even moved Pittsburgh to +115 on the moneyline, so shopping for the best price is a must.
What will Fergie wear during the halftime show?
Among the off-the-wall prop bets, this one might be among the craziest. However, in the hours before Super Bowl XLV, info is starting to come out on what the Black Eyed Peas singer, Fergie, will wear during the group’s halftime performance.
Bodog.com has prop odds on Fergie’s costume for Super Bowl XLV, pricing a skirt/dress as the +110 favorite. But, with the NFL still spinning from Janet Jackson’s booby at Super Bowl XXXVIII, the league has informed the buxom songstress to keep it PG during halftime.
"It is a challenge because we want to give a bit of sex appeal but you don't want to get into any trouble. So we are very particular about the wardrobe, there will be no more malfunctions.
"We are just making sure that everything is secure and tucked in and nobody is going to get angry," Fergie told ET.
"A little sex appeal is OK. I don't think there is anything wrong with that. I know that my stylist was talking to the NFL. There were definitely points of contention, you know, certain things cannot be shown. It is serious. I am getting a lot of rules."
With the censors clawing at the door, bettors should take a good look at pants (+125) or shorts (+250) for this wacky prop wager.
Sorry to those hopeful dreamers who laid down on G-String at +1,000. If you are right, aren’t we all winners in the end?
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Covers.com will be blogging live from Lagasse’s Stadium at the Palazzo Sunday, starting approximately one hour before the start of the game. We’ll be looking close at any possible line changes both in Las Vegas and the offshore sites, talking things over with the Venetian’s Esposito and enjoying the game with you and the millions of others who will tune in. If you’d like to log on and comment, we’d love to have you along for the ride.
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lets get it
2nd Half-BOSTON -1.5 (-110)Comment -
GOOD START FOR THE CELTICS
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Ya snow who do you like in the super bowl and o/u bro?Comment -
Cash them both ohio st 2half ;and nc 2half 6-0 on the day so farComment -
25 -9 in the last two daysComment -
thanks for the picks today man!Comment -
6pt teaser packers +3.5 over 38.5 10x
packers 1h -1.5 2xComment -
Did you post a Superbowl play Wizardofbeantown? I see where you like the steelers.Comment -
I knew Celtics wouldn't let us down
good luck to Marquis healing his neck
wiz on the side I like PITT +3 and PITT -3.5 (+205) and Under 47 (buy 2)
tease Pitt/Under
Steelers are extremely hard to beat. I say they win their 7th Lombardi tonight.Comment -
Thanks Beaner - won 4 bets on the celtic game. Now I think I need to go against you in the SB.
GO PACK.................Comment -
STEELERS VS PACKERS
Today in Dallas, will be Superbowl XLV and should be a good one! The majority of money is on the Packers -2.5 or -3 (depending on the shop) and a o/u of 45.5. Early sharp money came in when the o/u 45 came out bring it down to 44 now the public knocked it back up to 45.5 or 46 at game time! Know both of these teams are very equal in all facets as we know. They both have great qb's that are big and mobile and in one side Ben is tough to bring down! Rodgers is the hotter of the two ,but Ben has played horrible (personally) and still found ways to win. We simply can't say the same for Aaron who was bailed out by Raji's TD to help the pack move on to the Superbowl. Both teams have great defenses and many stars on each side of the ball.
Greenbays offense vs Pitts defense
The Packers have a great offense and a QB in aaron rodgers who has been on fire thru out the playoff's. That's because they finally had someone step up and get the running game going Mr.Stark's. He made phillies poor run defense look horrible with 128 yds and then rushed for 65 vs atl and 78 vs da bears.Overall in the playoff's he is the best rusher(265yds) but, Today he wont be a factor against the best run defense in the nfl in the Steelers! The Packers will have to go to a spread offense and use the 5 wr's with atleast 43 catches between them! Plus the fact that in the Playoff's rodgers has been killing it, with a 109 QB rating and 71% comp. rate and 6 td's to 2 int's.
The Packers will try and spread the Steelers out with multiple-wideout sets and get one of their four top wide out's -- Jennings,Jones, Driver, and J. Nelson -- matched up against either a Pitt linebacker or one of the Steelers' weak cornerbacks in one-on-one coverage. When it comes to throwing the ball the likes the shotgun set (49%) of the time for 6th in the nfl but the problem is the Steelers are 1# in the nfl at defending the shotgun set . Rodgers throws to the right side more then his left and his favorite target to that side is jones at 22.0 percent and Jennings is directly behind him at 19.9 percent. Now that is Bryant Mcfadden's side at left corner and he should be ready for a lot of throws. Now to his left he favors jennings at 30.6% of the time and Jones 13.4% of the time. Watch out for jordy nelson today i feel he is small enough to do a wes welker today vs Pitt's defense. Now if the play the spread offense like most of the guys at espn think. Expect Pitt to counter with there 3-4 and x-fire blitz out of that like they did the last time they meet. What it is a inside blitz by the inside lb's in the A gap (between the center and the guard) and it forces pressure on the weakest pass defenders on the packers offensive line(Center,RB,Guard). This will help take the rb out of the play and prevent dumps to the flats by making them pick up a lb rusher and it blocks Aaron throwing lanes. Plus the last time they played This blitz didn't need to get a sack to create problematic pressure. The Steelers ran the Fire X blitz on three of the Packers' first five plays, producing three quarterback hurries and four incompletions so look for this to happen. Troy is healthier after another week of rest and the steelers are much better with him then with out him as we all know!
PITT OFFENSE VS GREENBAYS DEFENSE
Pitts running game will be key today for them to control the clock and wear down the packs defense. They did this vs the jets(who were then 1#run defense) and had the ball on the opening drive for 8or9 minutes. This run game and a steady diet of heath miller(7 rec 128yards last time they played)and shots to wallace down the field to keep the defense honest. This packers defense big weakness is vs the te pass #22 in the NFL and everything else they are good at vs the pass. PITT's offensive line will be key today and will have to step up big and give Ben enough time to throw the ball.
When it comes down to it let's say the sharps are right and both defense step up big! Who would you rather have as a Qb Rodgers or Ben?? After seeing rodgers vs the bears and no run game to help out i don't want him! Now Ben has had a few horrible games and still made plays and had a running game to control the clock and move the ball! Thats the type of QB i want when nothing else is working right !
no time left pick the steelers and the pts+3.5 or +3 buy the hook if they let you and under 45.5 couldn't get my other write up for thisComment -
steelers +3 8x
under 45.5 5x now we match sonny lets do itComment -
adding 3x more on black and yellow so 8x all day
LETS GET ITComment -
tease pitt +9 and under 51.5 5xComment -
ben just said they going to throw more then peeps think damn i hope mendenhall rips them upComment -
LETS GET ITComment -
black and yellow baby let's do it
oh ya cash the 4 bets in the celtics game 10-0 on the day i hope it's 13-0 after this game! i would hate for a rapist to win the MVP i hate ben but i like the steelers
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steelers +3 5x
under 45.5 5x now we match sonny lets do it snow sonny let's get it
teaser 51.5 under and pitt +9 5xComment -
good luck to all that are on the steelersComment -
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bol to all
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bol slimes
LETS GET ITComment -
i'll check in at halfComment -
3 and outComment -
helps theunderComment -
good field postion styeeleers have itComment
