Sonny, Ayo and Bean's Hoops thread

[WIZARDOFBEANTOWN]

TEXAS(18-3, 6-0) VS TEXAS A+M (17-3, 4-2)
WELL AS WE KNOW TEXAS IS NOT THE SAME TEAM AS LAST YEARS GROUP THAT FOLDED IN ANY TOUGH GAME. THIS YEAR THEY WALKED INTO KANSAS AND BEAT THEM ENDING THERE 69 GAME HOME WINNING STREAK!! IN CONFERENCE PLAY TEXAS IS A PERFECT 6-0 ATS AND 5-0 ats on the road vs teams that are above .500 w%! Plus texas for the season they are 7-1 ats on the road. other impressive road win was at oak st . The home team in this series has dominated this series , with texas getting there 9th straight win over Texas a+m jan. 19, 81-60 !! On the other side Texas haven't won in 7 years at college station, but with this years group doing so well on the road might pull it off!!

texas a+m has beat some good teams mizzou but only middleton avg (15pts) scored in double figures vs texas last time out ! The last 5 games there defense has let up 66.2 avg from 59.4 and the offense is off 4pts! The aggies are only 3-3 ats in conference play! The aggies are a impressive 8-0 ats and 4-1in the last 5 meetings!
the line has been going toward a+m and the over/under went from 129 to 127 at some places take texas-1 2x and the under 129 1x texas defense will be tough for the aggies to find ways to score !the aggies go as middleton goes the longhorns shut him down the aggies are in major trouble!

[BoS_010]

GL tonight bean. It's early, only 8+ min into the game, but good start for Texas and the under.

[sonnybaby]

get em bean

[WIZARDOFBEANTOWN]

clippers ml 2x the lose of gordon wont hurt ,them that bad with foye taking his place!! randy can flat out shoot the ball!!l He was a great little scorer for washington, before he got traded and got lost behind gordon on the clippers bench! the bucks on the other hand have gotten some key pieces back b jennings is being capped at 12 minutes a game! they got delfenio back to and meggette going again but are still finding there legs and timing. the clippers have been playing well with each other ang the bucks will have a tough time with covering griffen.

[WIZARDOFBEANTOWN]

thanks fellas tough weekend hurt

[YOUNGBUCK]

NBA
Bucks +3.5 2x
Bobcats o/u189 over2x
Cavs +18 2x

Ga. Southern +10.5 2x
Texas pk 2x
G-Town ml 3x
NOCO+3.5 2x
Canisius +10 2x

Gonna prob play texas over when I can might self destruct tonight thats wat happens on these small cards that I feel the need to play haha

Hopefully bucks pull through and lose by 3 that way u get a win too bean

[YOUNGBUCK]

Hopefully bucks pull through and lose by 3 that way u get a win too bean

Nvm this is over congrats bean -3 for the night gettin used to it

[WIZARDOFBEANTOWN]

hey guys some good games tonight

[xelance]

loved the clips, but couldnt pull the trigger because of the way they play against horrible teams, damnit!

[xelance]

what plays do u like today boston?

[ROC1043]

have been lurking in this forum for some time........dont play sides to often, but I play totals quite often.....will start to post in this thread, if no one minds, and hopefully I can help us win some cash from the book

will start my posting with

YTD = 0-0

534---col/ov 150

[tennismenace76]

3-0 yesterday w/ Texas -1, Utah -3 and Memphis +2!

If anyone likes to bet soccer: I like Manchester United ML and Arsenal -1 (they are red hot right now)

[WIZARDOFBEANTOWN]

THANKS TM NICE JOB YESTERDAY

[WIZARDOFBEANTOWN]

We definitely saw a bevy of sharps pounding the Under when it hit 46 last week, now down to 44 or 44.5. Sharps love the Dom Capers vs. Dick LeBeau defensive coordinator matchup with extra time to prepare. And we've seen Unders cash in five of the last six Super Bowls. The Steelers-Cardinals Super Bowl was the only recent exception, and that game was a dead nuts Under until the wild final five minutes.

The real story about the Super Bowl comes from the plethora of proposition wagers available to wager on. For the sake of brevity, I'm going to concentrate on prop bets that are 1) at the Hilton and 2) got bet hard when the Hilton opened their numbers last week. Jay Kornegay and his staff are the industry leaders when it comes to Super Bowl props. I’ll happily give them the attention they deserve here.

Aaron Rodgers Props

Aaron Rodgers got bet up for his rushing numbers. Rodgers first rush of the game Over 4.5 yards took money, as did the Over 18.5 rushing yards for the game. Bettors expect him to scramble out of the pocket against LeBeau's blitzes effectively, like he's done all year.

There was also some upwards pressure on Rodgers at O/U 22.5 completions. The thought process goes like this: Pittsburgh had the best defense in the NFL at avoiding explosive plays -- no team in the NFL allowed fewer plays of 20 yards or more this year. We can expect Rodgers to have to throw underneath which equals more completions, not more yardage. The yardage prop (O/U 274.5) has not moved nearly as much as the 'Over completions' has moved.


Jordy Nelson Props

Jordy Nelson is attracting quite a bit of wiseguy support at O/U 40.5 yards and O/U 3.5 catches. Again, the season long numbers suggest a bet on the Under, but current form demands a play on the Over. In two playoff games: Nelson has 8 & 4 catches, for 79 & 67 yards. Like Green Bay's defense, the Steelers have shown vulnerability to the third and fourth receivers with their blitzing schemes.

James Starks Props

James Starks Over 16 carries. Bettors watched Starks fail to gain yardage or first downs as Green Bay struggled to run out the clock against the Bears in the NFC Championship Game. And they know that the Steelers had the No. 1 rushing defense in the NFL this year. That's why Starks Over 49.5 yards hasn't attracted as much attention as his number of carries.

Green Bay is favored, so Starks should get his fair share of carries in the second half if GB is trying to run out the clock. In three playoff games, he's had 23, 25 and 22 rushing attempts, despite only getting 29 for the entire regular season. Bettors expect that current form to continue.

Heath Miller Props

Heath Miller -23.5 receiving yards vs. John Kuhn: Money poured in on Miller: 23.5 -120, then 26.5 -120, then 28.5 -120. Money also came on Heath Miller over 37.5 receiving yards for the game. Green Bay’s defense is vulnerable to big days from the opposing tight end -- their secondary does a dynamite job containing the top two receivers, but not so good against the tight ends going over the middle.

Ben Roethlisberger Props

Ben Roethlisberger first half passing yards vs. second half passing yards. This line opened pick -120 on the second half, and immediately got hit with heavy money on the 2nd half. The thought process here is two-fold: GB is favored and Pitt came out running vs. the Jets. GB favored means that they should be leading at halftime, forcing Pittsburgh into a more pass heavy attack. Pittsburgh ran against the Jets and it worked, so expect a similar gameplan here resulting in fewer Roethlisberger pass attempts (and therefore passing yards) in the first half.

Longshot Props

Every year, wiseguys lay heavy juice on props that the 'squares' love to hit at plus prices. The classic here is the ‘Will there be OT’. The ‘No’ has cashed every year since the Super Bowl started. Squares bet the 'Yes' every year looking for the longshot score. Sharps happily lay -1100 to win $100 on the ‘No’.

Sharps bet the 'No' on 'Will Troy Polamalu Get an Interception' at -300. Polamalu is not going to be 100 percent; he was basically a non-factor in the Steelers first two playoff games. This is another type of heavy juice prop that professional bettors are willing to lay, while squares look for the plus price on the 'Yes'.

It's a similar story on the 'Will there be a safety' prop (also a near 10:1 shot), and the 'Will either team score three straight times', with the 'Yes' (what wiseguys bet) at -175 and the No at a nice plus price. Sharps also look to bet 'Longest TD of the Game Under 1.5 yards', while squares bet that same prop Over 1.5 yards, even though it tends to be priced in the -115 range.

[WIZARDOFBEANTOWN]

People pounded the line when the packers at pk and the steeler's at +3 , but since it settled in the middle not much action

[drgonzo111]

Nice post. Appreciate you sharing.

[WIZARDOFBEANTOWN]

INJURY STILL BOTHERING BYNUM
Andrew Bynum, Los Angeles Lakers – Bynum missed part of the third quarter on Sunday with a sore left knee and then skipped practice on Monday. While it definitely looks like the knee is bothering him significantly as he tries to get up and down the floor lately, coach Phil Jackson says Bynum wants to play Tuesday against Houston. Bynum averages 11.4 points and 7.3 rebounds per game.

[xelance]

I dont understand the longest TD under 1.5 yards prop...it doesnt make sense to me. As for the game, I just put a 5 unit bet on packers -3 +110...that is all they have on bookmaker The spread is stuck at 3

[newbie]

Tennis I am willing to bet anything that makes money but Manhester Ml is -350, do you like -1.5 for -105?

[WIZARDOFBEANTOWN]

fusty special
boston college +3 (IF REGGIE JACKSON PLAYS SO ON HOLD TILL THEN)

[WIZARDOFBEANTOWN]

nice post. Appreciate you sharing.

no problem dr gonzo

[newbie]

what do you guys think about Creighton -4?

[newbie]

Wiz I love the fusty specials, they get you paid...

[YOUNGBUCK]

Wat up bean ayo sonny. Bean I like vandy wat u think

[WIZARDOFBEANTOWN]

HOW TO BET COLLEGE BASKETBALL WAS THE TITLE
Of no-names and schedules
Basketball fans love the big name teams. Duke, UConn, North Carolina, Arizona. But you’ll notice successful handicappers don’t always give out top plays on the most recognizable schools. That’s because there’s value all over the board when wagering on college hoops, and it’s not always on the marquee teams.
This is in stark contrast to what happens during the college basketball season. There are dozens of games each day and even up to 70-85 games on a college basketball Saturday. With so many games, it’s much more difficult for linemakers to make accurate numbers on every game. There will be mistakes and soft lines, which are the handicapper's best friend.
And sometimes you may not even recognize the schools or conferences. One week I released my Southern Conference Game of the Year on Davidson. It was a great spot for a play on the visitors and – in my judgment – a very bad number. Davidson had a well-balanced team that matched up fairly well with a good Georgia Southern squad. I looked at a line of about one or two points, but Davidson was a plus-8 1/2 road ‘dog.
This brings into play the importance of examining a team’s schedule carefully. Davidson had a losing record in part because of its tough schedule, playing Texas Tech, North Carolina, Georgetown, Seton Hall and Duke – all but one on the road! The stats may have suggested that Davidson gives up a lot of points, but this was deceptive because of this awfully difficult schedule.
The game was an easy cover, as Davidson outrebounded Georgia Southern 39-28, trailed by two at the half on the way to a 62-60 defeat, but an easy cover. Davidson might have even won the game if they hadn’t missed nine free throws. Still, my clients and I didn’t need them to win – just cover the +8 1/2-points.
The moral is: Don’t ignore small, no-name schools and examine schedules carefully. Wins and losses, straight up and against the spread, are found when you read between the lines.
Conference play
This is when the second season for handicappers begins. Once college basketball conference play goes into full swing, it allows bettors to gauge statistics and match-ups.
Many teams schedule a string of non-conference cupcake games early in the season in order to run up big scores and easy victories. However, they could then falter quickly as they step up in competition during January and February conference play. Virginia and Hofstra come to mind this past season - two teams that got off to strong starts but struggled as the competition got better.
Other times, teams schedule difficult non-conference games early in the season - and sometimes take serious beatings - to toughen them up for conference action. Jon Chaney’s Temple Owls have done this often over the last decade. It’s essential for handicappers to utilize power ratings and carefully check records versus quality opponents.
Another factor to take into account when ‘capping conference play is that teams will play each other more than once. It’s important to look back on any recent meetings and see what took place. If one team blew out another, look at the box score to see why. And ask questions. Did one team dominate the glass? Or did the opponent simply have a bad shooting game?
This can mean the rematch will be equally one-sided, or it could mean the team that lost badly is out for revenge. Looking back at past years helps as well. You can find a trend where each team rolls over another on its home court, which happened for several years with ACC rivals Duke and Maryland. Or you might find that one team has the other’s number and consistently gets the cover whether they’re at home or at the other team’s place.
Check conference standings, too. Conference games likely have greater importance for teams that can’t afford any more losses. In addition, you can find teams that have already fallen out of the conference race, which means they might begin packing it in, especially on the road against stronger conference foes.
Conference play offers a more level playing field than the early season. For those with an eye for it, the "second season" can assist an astute handicapper with more angles than earlier non-conference action.
Tourney tips
Many times during the season and even in some conference tournament games, you can find teams that are less interested in wanting to play hard. That is, they know they’re going to get hammered or they’ve slumped so badly down the stretch that they realize they have no shot at going anywhere in tournament play.
In short, they’ve given up on the season or on a particular game where they are a big underdog and know their season is over. This is far less likely in late March, however, as good teams keep winning and are motivated to play all out.
Road play: It’s important to check home/road play for college hoop teams. This is also something to keep up on from the Sweet 16 on. Some teams have a noticeable weakness on the road, such as poor road defense, or they consistently fail to cover when away from home. Most college tournament games this time of year are neutral courts, but it can be helpful to check both teams’ road play when analyzing individual match-ups to get a sense of how they play away from home.
Non-conference competition: Some helpful sports wagering web sites have this broken down in easy-to-read columns. On the other hand, you must take this a step further, too - examine next who those non-conference games were against. If they were against all small-school teams with poor records, then it’s not as helpful as if they played against top-notch non-conference opponents. Illinois faced Gonzaga, Cincinnati, Georgetown, Wake Forest and at Arkansas last year and whipped them all by double digits.
Location: Sometimes teams luck out by getting placed in a tourney bracket that is close to home. North Carolina, for instance, opened the tourney last year playing in Charlotte against Oakland (Mich.) and Iowa State, two teams that traveled a long way. The Tar Heels won by 28 and 27 points, respectively. A close location can mean more fans in the stands cheering for a particular team, giving it a slight edge.
Their role as a ‘dog?: Check how some teams fared as an underdog during the season. Two teams that have already been knocked out of tournament play are Cincinnati and Mississippi State, clubs that combined to go 1-9 SU, 3-7 ATS as a ‘dog this season. When the pressure is on against top-notch teams, some clubs simply can’t step it up.
History: Has this team been here before? Some teams are new to the Sweet 16 and beyond. Check their recent history. Is this a surprise team that came out of nowhere to get this far? Does their starting five have any experience at all in late March tournament play? Digging into various details can help turn a profit during March Madness.

[WIZARDOFBEANTOWN]

NCAA HOOPS TO MUCH TO HANDLE?

With college hoops kicking off, it’s time to once again examine what goes into handicapping this sometimes overwhelming sport.College basketball is considered by many to be one of the toughest sports to handicap while at the same time, it is also considered to be one of the most profitable. With 225 Division I lined teams, there are usually in upwards of 80-90 games to decipher on any given Saturday during the season. The average sports bettor cannot possibly handicap all of these games especially when the lines aren’t released until the prior afternoon.
The volume of possible action is what makes churning out consistent profits so difficult to some. However, with that many possibilities on the board, some of those lines are very soft since the linesmakers also find it difficult to throw good numbers on all of those games. Finding those teams with hidden value is what you want to strive for and I will give you a few tips on how to do just that.
Stats, Stats, Stats
In my opinion, the most important component of handicapping is looking at the statistical numbers. A lot of cappers use stats as a secondary tool and there is absolutely nothing wrong with it if that is how they are able to pick more winners. I do use situational handicapping in certain areas but not as much in college sports as I do in professional sports. I feel stats are very important when handicapping college hoops because they are real and genuine even though parity isn’t very prevalent.
These college kids go out and play hard for their team every game, not just for themselves because they are in a contract year or looking for special bonuses. When looking at the stats, you have to make sure you are looking at the right stats and also looking at them correctly. Simply looking at points scored for and against can be very misleading at times.
For example, Texas A&M led the country in scoring margin at one point last season at +34.8 ppg. A novice might see that and say that the Aggies are playing great basketball right now but not notice that they have played the weakest schedule in the country that includes wins against NAIA Texas of the Permian Basin and Division III Trinity. If stats such as this are being used in your analysis, either factor in schedule strength or use only comparable Division I numbers.
One stat that can be used no matter who the competition is free throw shooting. The basket is 15 feet away no matter who the opponent is. The numbers might be slightly skewed based on pressure situations for some teams and not others but for the most part, they are a good indicator.
Assist to turnover ratio is another one of most important stats to look at. The average A/TO ratio is around 0.950 in college basketball so anything above 1.20 is what I consider outstanding. Early in the season, you will see a lot of inflated numbers due to the soft schedules a lot of teams play. Once the conference season starts, these numbers will decline based on the more difficult schedules.
Keying in on the correct stats and looking at them the right way can give you some great additional insight.
Throw out the Trash
This time of the year with most teams still playing their non-conference schedules, there are a lot of real garbage games on the board. I define garbage games as those with favorites of 20 points or more. Even when conference season begins, these high lined games will still be around.
For a team to be favored by this many points means one of two things. The chalk is a superior team and should be able to name the score or the underdog is so bad that they have no business even hanging around in this contest. Laying 20 or more points can give the average bettor some high level stress as they try to avoid the dreaded backdoor cover. Grabbing 20 or more points is just as gut wrenching as you are hoping your longshot can stay within the number. It’s simply too much to handle since luck comes into play in a number of these outcomes.
Last season, there were lines of 20 or more points in 68 games that involved the major conference teams. The favorite covered the number 36 times while the dog cashed 32 times, making it pretty much a wash. On occasion, an edge can be found in these games whether its injury, a look ahead situation or a hangover but they are few and far between and my advice is to just not even bother wasting your valuable time. There are better numbers out there for you to find.
Two years ago, Duke was favored by 20 or more points eleven times, the most out of any team in the country. They went 5-6 ATS in those games and the kicker is that in seven of them, the final margin was within 4.5 points of the closing line. Move along please…
Injury Reports
Take a look at injury reports each and every day. As a hypothetical example, ESPN will give you information on Georgia Tech’s leading scorer being out for their next game but they won’t tell you that the leading scorer for Rider is out as well. While injury reports list actual players injuries, they also list eligibility information as well.
Early in the year is especially important since it is final exam time for the first semester. A number of players have been sitting out through their team’s first few games in order to get their academics in order. Players may also be sitting out the first semester because of NCAA regulations with transfers. These reports will usually tell you when a player will become eligible. Late December is the most common time that players return to action after sitting out the fall semester so keep an eye on those reports for the next couple weeks. Again, you will hear from the media about the big name schools but it’s the smaller schools that you want to keep a keen eye on. Finding players involved in games that are going to be out or just coming back are the ones you can concentrate on and handicap more in depth. You may think you have a strong play going only to find out that a key player will not be in action. If that’s the case, out the window it goes.
Power Ratings
There are numerous sources available where you can get a set of power ratings. Better yet, compile your own set that you can tweak and play with until you have come up with a solid bunch of rankings. Comparing your numbers against the lines can give you some very good parameters to use to try and filter out some of the games you are looking to handicap.
If your ratings make Illinois a 16-point favorite over Oregon and the line is –17, you might want to disregard that game and move on. Compiling your own set of power ratings will take some time to find the greatest accuracy but it will pay off in the long run. Setting up your numbers can be as easy as using different power ratings from other places or they can be more complex incorporating stats, schedules and other useful tools.
For example, my numbers employ five sets of national ratings along with stats such as shooting percentages, rebounding margins and assist/turnover ratios. I also incorporate strength of schedule numbers, which can be a valuable tool that is often overlooked. Ideally, if there is a Saturday card with 80 lined games, you want to knock that down by about 75% to get down to 20 games. This will give you a lot of better options and you can free up valuable time to handicap those games more in depth to come up with some strong winners.

[tennismenace76]

Tennis I am willing to bet anything that makes money but Manhester Ml is -350, do you like -1.5 for -105?

Yes, that's where I'm leaning on this game. My only worry is that striker Darren Bent for Villa will be able to score, meaning ManU must score 3+ to cover. ManU have not lost a game this season (only won/drawn) but they got a huge scare last week when they were down 2-0 to Blackpool at halftime. I think they'll be ready to go for this game at home. 2-0, 3-0, 3-1, 4-1 all very possible scores. Good luck!

[tennismenace76]

Wiz whats a fusty special?

[tennismenace76]

Arsenal -1
ManU ML

parlay is my soccer play today

[BoS_010]

Nice write-up on college basketball bean. Hey menace I believe I read somewhere in this thread that soccer is your best sport, right?

[xelance]

good read, thanks...any plays for today boston?

[tennismenace76]

Haha I guess you could say that

[xelance]

my play of the day: Creighton -4.5 @ Bradley, follow or fade if you like Huge public bet, but Creighton is that much better. Bradley has not won a conference game all year, while Creighton looks to keep up with a competitive Missouri Valley conference. Home court advantage has nothing to do with the outcome of this game, as the time of the game was moved from 8 ET to 4 ET. Creighton rolls in an easy victory.

[WIZARDOFBEANTOWN]

leans
new mexico -3
houston +3
colo -7
bc
ballst
kansas by the halfs maybe
shockers
crieghton

[sonnybaby]

love the 1st got to go get paid only play

boston collage +2.5 5x

what up bean buck ayo