Sawyer's NBA Totals Thread 2010-2011 Season

**Sawyer** · 10-30-10, 07:56 AM

Thank you guys, Let's rock!

Good luck with Labouchere line Linedrivr.

**SolidDala** · 10-30-10, 08:05 AM

Yes, Pinnacle is best for sure, rarely use other books since they often have the best lines, like +101 for LAL/PHX last night.. BOL tonight

**linedrivr** · 10-30-10, 08:11 AM

Originally posted by Sawyer

Thank you guys, Let's rock!

Good luck with Labouchere line Linedrivr.

appreciate it. looking forward to seeing the end result in June.

**wquine** · 10-30-10, 08:26 AM

sawyer's a line changer, gots to get on these early.

**Sawyer** · 10-30-10, 08:27 AM

If we can stay above %60 (over 400-500 plays approximately) at the end of season, it's gonna be great!

Of course, even %55-56 is enough to make nice profit..

**wquine** · 10-30-10, 08:27 AM

btw: meant that as a good thing

**wquine** · 10-30-10, 08:28 AM

60% at least! where's your confidence man?

**Sawyer** · 10-30-10, 08:32 AM

I like being realistic. It makes me feel more happier when things go better then I expected

**Duby** · 10-30-10, 08:40 AM

GL today and very nice start to the year!!

**JR007** · 10-30-10, 08:42 AM

Nice job dude..question...do you use a model for your plays ??? or do you take the difference between the line say -9 195 fav wins 102-93.....and go from there ???? Thanks

**mehow** · 10-30-10, 08:44 AM

above 60% over 400 plays and some guy says 'where is your confidence'. as you said over 56% is great rec in a long run. majority of people would lose large amount of money in 400 plays. Good luck in whole season man

confidence and optymism are obligatory in betting, but too high expectations are toxic.

**JR007** · 10-30-10, 08:50 AM

Anyone know the record for unders last season NBA...they were hitting at around 54% as I recall

**Sawyer** · 10-30-10, 08:58 AM

Originally posted by JR007

Nice job dude..question...do you use a model for your plays ??? or do you take the difference between the line say -9 195 fav wins 102-93.....and go from there ???? Thanks

All plays are based on a model/system I developped. Zero emotion involved.

Last year, I tested it for 3 months then started sharing plays through 23 Jan in Statfox forum. (Regular Season 116-74, %61. Post-season 17-9, %65.)

I wish everyone a profitable Saturday!

**cala56** · 10-30-10, 09:17 AM

Originally posted by Sawyer

You're surprised to see Charlotte-Milwaukeee Over, don't you?

I really like your plays, but I'm reallly surprised. You are right. You gonna tell us why. Or just let magic works?

**rochestertitans** · 10-30-10, 09:53 AM

good luck

**MRT11** · 10-30-10, 09:56 AM

Very nice, keep up the good work!

**btd** · 10-30-10, 10:40 AM

Tailed all 5 picks last nite, Thanx , sent you some points, looking forward to todays picks

**dimon** · 10-30-10, 11:05 AM

Originally posted by belvedere86

yup, i use 5dimes, bwin and bookmaker. dont know if pinnacle is good? i heard they are slow with posting their numbers up

You have got tot be kidding right, Pinnacle is the damn BEST book over there, and the stupid fuks here in the states still make stupid laws, so we can't play there.

**Sawyer** · 10-30-10, 11:24 AM

MONEY MANAGEMENT:
POWER OF COMPOUND INTEREST

By the way,

Do you know,

With %61 win rate,

18 plays/week,

(My pick/week average is 18.66 but to make the calculation easier, I'm taking as 18 plays/week)

Using %5 of bankroll for each game,

If we resize our bank every week,

At the end of season,

Your bankroll increases by x45!

2000 bankroll becomes 90k.

Amazing, isn't it?

Patience is the key..

**dimon** · 10-30-10, 11:26 AM

man stop that...you know better than anyone what it's take to sustain performance like that

**majestece** · 10-30-10, 11:50 AM

good write on money management sawyer. BOL this season.

**JR007** · 10-30-10, 11:55 AM

Thanks Sawyer!!!!

**syy211** · 10-30-10, 01:30 PM

like Washington vs Atlanta Under 196 play. GL!

**erkanua** · 10-30-10, 02:26 PM

I really cant make this calculation for 30 min...

which formula did u use?

lan emre nası yaptın amk şu işlemi

**Muggy** · 10-30-10, 02:59 PM

Nice post on Money Management. Never really thought of it compounding like that.

**gangeriver** · 10-30-10, 03:01 PM

Originally posted by Sawyer

If we can stay above %60 (over 400-500 plays approximately) at the end of season, it's gonna be great!

Of course, even %55-56 is enough to make nice profit..

I make up 473-317-19 %60

how does it appear ?

good luck Sawyer!

**mehow** · 10-30-10, 03:12 PM

"Using %5 of bankroll for each game" - it's quite a risky thing, having this 70k for example, you would play 3.5k for one match, and playing three games in one day, you could lose 10.5k. i couldn't do that, to big pressure... i probably would be so pessimistic that i would lose another games and went into losing streak. i'm a streak guy, i have to cut it.

**erkanua** · 10-30-10, 03:25 PM

in spite of that you may devote %30 of your account to nba total plays..by this way you can loose 3k max in one day..i guess it wouldnt be too much

**Michael Corleone** · 10-30-10, 04:34 PM

Good luck tonight. Your are making a decent job!

Agree with the bank management information.

If you want to make fortune, you need to be patience!

**taraftar** · 10-30-10, 05:01 PM

Where are you my brother...?

**Sawyer** · 10-30-10, 05:09 PM

Originally posted by mehow

"Using %5 of bankroll for each game" - it's quite a risky thing, having this 70k for example, you would play 3.5k for one match, and playing three games in one day, you could lose 10.5k. i couldn't do that, to big pressure... i probably would be so pessimistic that i would lose another games and went into losing streak. i'm a streak guy, i have to cut it.

Of course, it was just an example to show the power of Compound Interest. You shouldn't use %5 if your bank is 70k. When your bankroll grows, you should switch to a more conservative number. Personally, I was betting %5 each game two years ago. Right now, I'm betting %2 - %3.

For small bankrolls, (below 2000) my suggestion is %5.
For medium-sized bankrolls (2,000-5,000) you can use %4.
For larger bankrolls (5,000-10,000) you can use %3.
If your bankroll is above 20k, %2 - %2.5 is a very good number.

**Salt Empoze** · 10-30-10, 05:14 PM

hou - den like 215,5 over

isn't it ?

**cala56** · 10-30-10, 05:29 PM

My bankroll is above 2000 , and play 2.5 units. If i play 5 stress me

**thienlong82** · 10-30-10, 05:37 PM

Happy Holloween everybody.....

BOL to all tonight..... Win big and party on.....

**Jordan23** · 10-30-10, 05:57 PM

Do you put all your bankroll in one sportsbook? If not then how do you spread it out?