goat milk's 2010-11 nba theory thread

Goat Milk · 12-22-10, 01:15 PM

Originally posted by Pauulzcappin

goat , Orlando is not ready yet.

they are good now in my opinion. i honestly fear orlando now way more than before the trade (as far as miami's chances to win the east). Van Gundy is an idiot though. Why wouldn't you play quenten richardson last night? The one thing Orlando was struggling to do was guard the 3 and you have your best AND strongest perimeter defender sitting on the bench.

Originally posted by Tommy_de1st

Goat, how was you local on Orlando game?

he had Dallas +2 last night. I think he's lean was chicago he was holding -5.5 the whole night but he didn't change anything more than a half point from pinnacle don't think

Pauulzcappin · 12-22-10, 01:21 PM

Orlando might be a good play on Thrus. It's gonna probably be a pick

Goat Milk · 12-22-10, 06:41 PM

Pistons +5.5 $110

No coincidences · 12-22-10, 06:45 PM

Originally posted by Pauulzcappin

Orlando might be a good play on Thrus. It's gonna probably be a pick

Magic have burned me in the last two games.

Do I triple down?

obamaismyuncle · 12-22-10, 06:46 PM

Originally posted by obamaismyuncle

goat, model has been tearing it up, 2-0 tonight. My model has been on like a 17-3 run

model is suggesting utah -6, thunder +1, and denver +8 tonight

curious · 12-22-10, 06:51 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Magic have burned me in the last two games.

Do I triple down?

No, you cap the game and take the team that has an edge if the line you have to pay is worth it.

curious · 12-22-10, 06:54 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Magic have burned me in the last two games.

Do I triple down?

Take San Antonio + the points. San Antonio wins 90% on the road, Orlando wins 69% at home. I would bet 2X on San Antonio + the points and X on San Antonio money line.

No coincidences · 12-22-10, 06:55 PM

Originally posted by curious

Take San Antonio + the points. San Antonio wins 90% on the road, Orlando wins 69% at home. I would bet 2X on San Antonio + the points and X on San Antonio money line.

Do you honestly expect Spurs to keep winning at a 90% clip on the road?

curious · 12-22-10, 07:02 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Do you honestly expect Spurs to keep winning at a 90% clip on the road?

I go by the percentages, I'm not smart enough to predict the future.

Goat Milk · 12-22-10, 08:05 PM

Hornets -450 risking $450

No coincidences · 12-22-10, 08:07 PM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

Hornets -450 risking $450

Is this a dig at Curious, or are you serious?

Goat Milk · 12-22-10, 08:08 PM

Houston +1/Hornets ML $75 to win $100

No coincidences · 12-22-10, 08:08 PM

Originally posted by curious

I go by the percentages, I'm not smart enough to predict the future.

Using such a small sample size isn't very smart in my opinion.

It'd be one thing if you were using these percentages in late February.

Goat Milk · 12-22-10, 08:09 PM

serious

loving how tmac playing against his former team.

No coincidences · 12-22-10, 08:10 PM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

serious

loving how tmac playing against his former team.

You're putting $450 on the Hornets to win $100?

What kind of bet is that, Goat?

Pauulzcappin · 12-22-10, 08:12 PM

I don't, this fukk is costing me money.

Goat Milk · 12-22-10, 08:12 PM

a 95% winner easy bill

No coincidences · 12-22-10, 08:18 PM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

a 95% winner easy bill

Probably, but it's the NBA and if it loses for some reason, it's one of the worst bets you could possible make.

-450?

darkenergy · 12-22-10, 08:24 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

You're putting $450 on the Hornets to win $100? What kind of bet is that, Goat?

It's expensive, but hey he's a man. The different between the man and the boy...............is the price of their toys

.
But man, GM this play remind me of Todayactions last year. He lay Celt 2H for -800 or something and got smoked.
Best of luck GM

Goat Milk · 12-22-10, 08:28 PM

Spurs/Denver UNDER 212 $150

Goat Milk · 12-22-10, 08:29 PM

thats a local line most others giving the .5 or the 213

Handjuice · 12-22-10, 08:32 PM

if he is confident it's a sure winner than it's not a big deal imo, i have made bets like that quite a few times in the past, dropping 500 to win 100 or dropping 1000 for 200, i only do it with boxing though because that's my #1 sport.

Goat Milk · 12-22-10, 08:35 PM

who likes rockets

Dexter · 12-22-10, 08:52 PM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

Pistons +5.5 $110

eaaazsy winner

Wojo · 12-22-10, 09:44 PM

Originally posted by curious

Take San Antonio + the points. San Antonio wins 90% on the road, Orlando wins 69% at home. I would bet 2X on San Antonio + the points and X on San Antonio money line.

That's great the Spurs are winning 90% of their road games this season.

Does it make any difference that the Spurs are just 23-33 ATS since 2007 when they are playing a back to back?

Does it matter that the Spurs on the road are just 69-54 straight-up (no playoff games), 56.1%, over the previous three seasons?

I'm just trying to understand the complex world of handicapping the NBA.

Pauulzcappin · 12-22-10, 11:31 PM

Big bet on Orlando tomorrow is in order, I'm throwing at least 500.

curious · 12-22-10, 11:50 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Using such a small sample size isn't very smart in my opinion.

It'd be one thing if you were using these percentages in late February.

Let's see. Year after year I KILL NBA, NCAAB, NCAAF, and MLB doing things that you claim are totally wrong. Hmmm, perhaps your opinion isn't all that useful.

curious · 12-22-10, 11:52 PM

Originally posted by Wojo

That's great the Spurs are winning 90% of their road games this season.

Does it make any difference that the Spurs are just 23-33 ATS since 2007 when they are playing a back to back?

Does it matter that the Spurs on the road are just 69-54 straight-up (no playoff games), 56.1%, over the previous three seasons?

I'm just trying to understand the complex world of handicapping the NBA.

I don't go back so many years, I only look at this year.

RICOCHE6868 · 12-22-10, 11:59 PM

please your friends ayundenme nba betting for this Thursday ..

curious · 12-23-10, 02:27 AM

Thursday, December 23rd

San Antonio +2 1/2 2.2 units to win 2 units
San Antonio +125 ML 1 unit to win 1.25 unit

Milwaukee -1 3.3 units to win 3 units

All plays risking 1 unit on + odds, risking to win 1 unit on - odds.

1Q
Sacramento
Orlando

2Q
Orlando
Miami

3Q
Milwaukee
San Antonio
Miami

4Q
San Antonio
Phoenix

1H
Sacramento
Orlando

2H
Milwaukee
San Antonio

shaq diesel 75 · 12-23-10, 12:36 PM

Anyone think that Orlando finally gets a win tonight with the new acquisitions?

madmiek · 12-23-10, 03:39 PM

Good job

Mikail · 12-23-10, 03:41 PM

Originally posted by shaq diesel 75

Anyone think that Orlando finally gets a win tonight with the new acquisitions?

I don't know but I understand you ride a team on a winning streak so betting against the Spurs doesn't fit that model.

Goat Milk · 12-23-10, 06:08 PM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

Suns +7 1st Half -115 BETDSI risking $57

WIN

Originally posted by Goat Milk

Hornets +3.5 -110 Risking $154

WIN

Originally posted by goat milk

orlando -2 -110 risking $220

loss

Originally posted by goat milk

pistons +5.5 $110

win

Originally posted by goat milk

hornets -450 risking $450

win

Originally posted by goat milk

houston +1/hornets ml $75 to win $100

win

Originally posted by goat milk

spurs/denver under 212 $150

push

Total: (updated) 42-34-8 W-L-P
-150 mls or more: 5-0
+200 dogs or more: 0-0
Live Bets: 0-0-0

Pauulzcappin · 12-23-10, 06:09 PM

Good run, go goat