goat milk's 2010-11 nba theory thread

[Goat Milk]

2010-2011
0-0-0

notes

Heat win title
Portland/LA/Mavs out west
Celtics-heat

OKC not as good as the hype.
Pistons ats when win consecutive games if playing a .500 team
Sixers ATS
ATlanta overs at home
fade miami ats after they play cleveland or new york possibhly
Portland on B2Bs
Utah/Denver mls at home to any .500 or lower team
What is going to be the streak on tv games this year
Take Sixers ats against over .500 teams possibly
Fade teams that beat heat/lakers (dex)


MVP Wade +800 .3x (I also think Dwight can get this)
Portland +245 to win northwest 1x

locked in


can do team totals but not as worth it

mods please dont move this thread out of think tank. thanks.

[donjuan]

Please explain why this belongs in the HTT.

[Wrecktangle]

move to NBA area please.

[Monte]

or just far away pls, guy is obv. stoned

[Goat Milk]

please do not leave comments this thread will be for my notes and tracking

Live: 0-0-0
Pre-Game: 0-0-0
+200 Dogs or more: 0-0-0


Portland/Suns 1st Half UNDER 102.5 -110 $50

[jgilmartin]

please do not leave comments this thread will be for my notes and tracking

please do not make threads in the wrong forum

[Goat Milk]

please do not make threads in the wrong forum

its not in the wrong forum i spoke with the mods and they agreed to leave it here. I'm going to be listing halftime data in here and 1st half data as well as other statistical notes, etc, so that there will be no complaints.

[Pauulzcappin]

Good luck goat.

[Justin7]

We'll leave it here for now. Don't let me down -- if it turns into a system, this thread is toast!

[Goat Milk]

Miami -4 -110 2nd half $40

don't worry justin i'm just trying to keep track of my plays and look for data and make some notes in here this is basically like instead of using my notepad which i usually do i will do it here

[donjuan]

Let me get this straight, you don't want any comments in this thread and you want to use it for tracking but you want it in the Think Tank. It's pretty transparent what you're doing; hope to run good, turn tout and find some guppies to pay you. Why the mods would ever allow this is beyond me.

[sharpcat]

This thread has shown no reason for it to belong in the think tank in a week.

OP specifically requests that nobody participate in his thread and that he is just using it to track his bets.

How can this thread belong in the think tank if nobody is allowed to contribute?

[Goat Milk]

Portland/Suns 1st Half UNDER 102.5 -110 $50

Miami -4 -110 2nd half $40

2-0

ok guys contribute whatever you like lets turn this into a think tank thread i dont' want this thread going in another section. This is a think tank so we should discuss things like I have listed above. Lets focus on the inflated lines there will be at the beginning of the season and which teams the books are giving too much credit too and which ones not enough credit

[Goat Milk]

Lakers -6.5 -110 $40

[sharpcat]

2-0

ok guys contribute whatever you like lets turn this into a think tank thread i dont' want this thread going in another section. This is a think tank so we should discuss things like I have listed above. Lets focus on the inflated lines there will be at the beginning of the season and which teams the books are giving too much credit too and which ones not enough credit

You have not listed anything other than your picks in several games, you have given nothing for anybody to contribute to.

Now if you have some data to back your claims that the lines that you have selected are inflated than this thread may belong here but so far this thread is nothing more than a gimmick thread and has brought zero educated discussion topics.

This belongs in the service plays section.

[SoV]

Good luck in the NBA, bro.

[Goat Milk]

Lakers -6.5 -110 $40

1-0.
3-0 total plays on Tues. Oct 27, 2010

You have not listed anything other than your picks in several games, you have given nothing for anybody to contribute to.

Now if you have some data to back your claims that the lines that you have selected are inflated than this thread may belong here but so far this thread is nothing more than a gimmick thread and has brought zero educated discussion topics.

This belongs in the service plays section.

I will provide data to show that the lines are inflated. From now with my games picked i will have explanations as to why they were selected (not match up write ups like i usually do but will show why they are off-lines and books are still adjusting) and since you would like to contribute i would like your input.

but i would just like as little attention in this thread as possible and we should use it to discuss why lines are set the way they are. This type of discussion belongs in the THINK TANK no doubt.

[Goat Milk]

ok guys i'll give you some inflated lines we can discuss. The bucks are +3 right now on the road to NO. This line is purely based off last year.

Paul has the spotlight back on him and there are some new pieces to this team but Thorton and Peja are both coming off the bench with jared bayless- that is one of the strongest benches in the league. bogut is just coming back from a horrible injury and maggette will have a tough time playing in a defenisve system like mwk.

Pistons are +4 against the Nets who were the worst team in the NBA last year. Pistons O/U on games won is 31.5. Troy Murphy is out for NJ. Line seems like it should be -1 for the nets.

Again these lines at the beginning of the season are all soft lines. books don't understand that OKC will not even take a 3-4 seed out west and yet they are the second favorites to win the west after the lakers and the favorites to take the NorthWest division which will not happen either.

[hawley]

goat will you be playing the bulls tomororw

[TylerDurden]

ok guys i'll give you some inflated lines we can discuss. The bucks are +3 right now on the road to NO. This line is purely based off last year.

Paul has the spotlight back on him and there are some new pieces to this team but Thorton and Peja are both coming off the bench with jared bayless- that is one of the strongest benches in the league. bogut is just coming back from a horrible injury and maggette will have a tough time playing in a defenisve system like mwk.

Pistons are +4 against the Nets who were the worst team in the NBA last year. Pistons O/U on games won is 31.5. Troy Murphy is out for NJ. Line seems like it should be -1 for the nets.

Again these lines at the beginning of the season are all soft lines. books don't understand that OKC will not even take a 3-4 seed out west and yet they are the second favorites to win the west after the lakers and the favorites to take the NorthWest division which will not happen either.

I have a strong feeling Portland will win the NW Div when it's all said and done. Just my gut feeling that baring any more serious injuries all the pieces are gonna fall into place for them.

[skrtelfan]

Since when does trend based garbage like "Pistons ats when win consecutive games if playing a .500 team" belong in the Tank? Just when I think SBR couldn't get any worse...

[rfr3sh]

1-0. 3-0 total plays on Tues. Oct 27, 2010 I will provide data to show that the lines are inflated. From now with my games picked i will have explanations as to why they were selected (not match up write ups like i usually do but will show why they are off-lines and books are still adjusting) and since you would like to contribute i would like your input. but i would just like as little attention in this thread as possible and we should use it to discuss why lines are set the way they are. This type of discussion belongs in the THINK TANK no doubt.

how are you 3-0
lakers won by 2

[shari91]

how are you 3-0
lakers won by 2

Pretty sure that was his 1/2 time play.

[Poogs]

You gotta be kidding with this

[HoulihansTX]

Think tank just went up e notch on the totem pole.

[HoulihansTX]

Lakers -6.5 -110 $40

Goaty, you are going to want to qualify this as a 2ndH bet.

Its apparent to me, but others might not get it even though it shows you posted this around 9pm Pacific.

[sharpcat]

ok guys i'll give you some inflated lines we can discuss. The bucks are +3 right now on the road to NO. This line is purely based off last year.

Paul has the spotlight back on him and there are some new pieces to this team but Thorton and Peja are both coming off the bench with jared bayless- that is one of the strongest benches in the league. bogut is just coming back from a horrible injury and maggette will have a tough time playing in a defenisve system like mwk.

Pistons are +4 against the Nets who were the worst team in the NBA last year. Pistons O/U on games won is 31.5. Troy Murphy is out for NJ. Line seems like it should be -1 for the nets.

Again these lines at the beginning of the season are all soft lines. books don't understand that OKC will not even take a 3-4 seed out west and yet they are the second favorites to win the west after the lakers and the favorites to take the NorthWest division which will not happen either.

This is not supportive data.

[lol101]

Stop hiding and bring this thread to the NBA SECTION

We all know what your trying to do

[SoV]

Why do you guys care? Just follow this thread and make money.

[Goat Milk]

Since when does trend based garbage like "Pistons ats when win consecutive games if playing a .500 team" belong in the Tank? Just when I think SBR couldn't get any worse...

unreal can't i just have a space where i can make notes?
so if theory of mine about the pistons is supported this year by ats data then does this thread belong in the think tank?

we'll try and find a better place for this thread if it bothers you guys so much. in the meantime if you dont want to contribute to the discussion of inflated lines please do not post anything in this thread.

[alamo]

Good luck GoatMilk. Your not the most popular on here but personally I believe your one of the most knowledgeable NBA posters down through the last few years on this site. I will be checking in on your thread but wont post as I dont want to clog your thread.

[Michael Corleone]

Good start. 100% in the first day in NBA season, is tought!

[cashil]

Good day for you. 13 games tonight, time to make some real bread

[BankrollBuilding]

Since when does trend based garbage like "Pistons ats when win consecutive games if playing a .500 team" belong in the Tank? Just when I think SBR couldn't get any worse...

just when we thought it couldnt get any worse you chime in

Get lost hater, if you dont like the thread dont open it, its that simple

Theres friggen JM threads in here and youre complaining about this one??? Get lost seriously

[Goat Milk]

Heat -2 -140 1st quarter $50
Heat/Dallas Parlay -120 $50
Hornets -2 -120 $50

keep all units small until rhythm
theory calls for fading celtics and taking portland in these spots but not comfortable with either