goat milk's 2010-11 nba theory thread

[Goat Milk]

Spurs -1 second half -105 $75

not that confident here

[Goat Milk]

OKC/Clippers 2nd Half Over 97 -110 .5x

[cashil]

GL goat. With you on 2nd half okc total

[ayuntalo]

goat..our bet ended up as a push right?
i think your away so ill just post here for you to see it

[Goat Milk]

Spurs -1 second half -105 $75

w

OKC/Clippers 2nd Half Over 97 -110 .5x

w

Sixers +120 1x

W

Rockets -5 (local line) $75 should the spurs be a $300 play?

L

3-1

Total: 14-5-1(push)

+200 or more Dogs: 0-0-0
Live Bets: 0-0-0
-150 MLS or more: 1-0-0



- question adleman if he's not going to play yao at the end of games. Defensive adjustments are quite simple- stay on your feet, don't fall for pump fakes. Rockets not playing smart. easy adjustments
-Sixers are better than advertised. Elton Brand is the key.
-JRich scores 23+ Suns will win 75% of games.
-Spurs on the road.
-Pistons suck. One of the worst coaches in basketball. Stucky is one of the most overrated pgs in the game. Need tmac to find his rhythm.
-Fade Indiana at times when opponents small forward is top 10 perimeter defender in the leauge (i.e. Iguadala, Artest, Grant Hill, Lebron)

rankings november 4
1. lakers
2. heat
3. celtics
4. magic
5. portland
6. spurs
7. mavs
8. hornets

[paco]

This thread got moved from somewhere cuz 1st time I'm seeing it?

Anyhow, Goodluck on the season Goat.

[Pauulzcappin]

Good notes. fade new orleans against teams with a good defensive pg and strong inside game.

[TNT28]

Goat, do you use twitter and post your plays there too? I hate missing these late ones. Thanks man.

[sweetjones55]

Goat, what are your thoughts on the player matchups in the Portland/OKC game, starters and bench?

[dvsbmx]

This thread got moved from somewhere cuz 1st time I'm seeing it?

Anyhow, Goodluck on the season Goat.

This thread was moved from the Think Tank.

[Goat Milk]

Goat, what are your thoughts on the player matchups in the Portland/OKC game, starters and bench?

I expect OKC to rebound from last night. Durant is not a streak shooter he has no conscious. The key to beating portland at home is pushing the tempo and westbrook is perhaps the best guy for that job. The OKC bench had less than 5 points total at the half against the clips and in the second half Cook and Ibaka starting knocking down shots. Portland's defensive weakness is guarding the 3 spot and Durant is going to drop 30+ tonight easily. He'll probably expose Batum right from the get go in the first quarter and McMillain will have to play Wesley Mathews and Cunningham more than usual.

Jeff Green on Aldrich is not a good matchup for Aldrich who is still not a true post player. Green is very quick for his size and likes to play on the perimeter and that's going to stretch Portland's D big time and give westbrook more space to create. Sefolosha is a great perimeter defender but we all know about how Brandon Roy is unstoppable when he plays on TNT.

I doubt Mcmillan will want to play slow tonight. OKC has great length and throw in big bodies like Kristic, Cole, and Ibaka you gotta push the tempo against teams with size. Fernadez usually plays well at home he should knock down at least 2-3 threes tonight.

[sweetjones55]

I expect OKC to rebound from last night. Durant is not a streak shooter he has no conscious. The key to beating portland at home is pushing the tempo and westbrook is perhaps the best guy for that job. The OKC bench had less than 5 points total at the half against the clips and in the second half Cook and Ibaka starting knocking down shots. Portland's defensive weakness is guarding the 3 spot and Durant is going to drop 30+ tonight easily. He'll probably expose Batum right from the get go in the first quarter and McMillain will have to play Wesley Mathews and Cunningham more than usual.

Jeff Green on Aldrich is not a good matchup for Aldrich who is still not a true post player. Green is very quick for his size and likes to play on the perimeter and that's going to stretch Portland's D big time and give westbrook more space to create. Sefolosha is a great perimeter defender but we all know about how Brandon Roy is unstoppable when he plays on TNT.

I doubt Mcmillan will want to play slow tonight. OKC has great length and throw in big bodies like Kristic, Cole, and Ibaka you gotta push the tempo against teams with size. Fernadez usually plays well at home he should knock down at least 2-3 threes tonight.

Ya it would tough for me to see Durant not have a above average game after having two bad ones against a team that can't guard great SF's. Andre Miller should have a tough time with Westbrook, I think Russell is the key to this game.

[Grits n' Gravy]

Great info. Like OK tonight as well. Miller is going to have his work cut out trying to keep up with Westbrook. Blazers should have kept Bayless.

[Shifty107]

I expect OKC to rebound from last night. Durant is not a streak shooter he has no conscious. The key to beating portland at home is pushing the tempo and westbrook is perhaps the best guy for that job. The OKC bench had less than 5 points total at the half against the clips and in the second half Cook and Ibaka starting knocking down shots. Portland's defensive weakness is guarding the 3 spot and Durant is going to drop 30+ tonight easily. He'll probably expose Batum right from the get go in the first quarter and McMillain will have to play Wesley Mathews and Cunningham more than usual.

Jeff Green on Aldrich is not a good matchup for Aldrich who is still not a true post player. Green is very quick for his size and likes to play on the perimeter and that's going to stretch Portland's D big time and give westbrook more space to create. Sefolosha is a great perimeter defender but we all know about how Brandon Roy is unstoppable when he plays on TNT.

I doubt Mcmillan will want to play slow tonight. OKC has great length and throw in big bodies like Kristic, Cole, and Ibaka you gotta push the tempo against teams with size. Fernadez usually plays well at home he should knock down at least 2-3 threes tonight.

My thoughts exactly GOAT. Batum was exposed against the bulls and Durant coming off some pour performances will demolish him worse than deng did.

[dvsbmx]

Goat,

Any thoughts on Kevin Durant under 29 points? The number seems a bit high to me considering how he has been playing recently. I'm not sure if I'm doing this correctly but KD has averaged 25.3 points throughout his carrier and is averaging 26.0 points this season. Using the Poisson calculator with an expected average of 26 points and the prop of 29 points, it seems that a fair line on the under would be -229.75. At my book I can get under 29 for -110. Would this be considered a +EV proposition? Can Poisson be used for points scored by player or would it have to be "points (baskets) attempted per game?"

I understand that KD may in fact have a big game, however, just based on the numbers is it the right side?

[Duby]

Very good info in ths thread and nice record.

Thanks!

[Goat Milk]

Goat, Any thoughts on Kevin Durant under 29 points? The number seems a bit high to me considering how he has been playing recently. I'm not sure if I'm doing this correctly but KD has averaged 25.3 points throughout his carrier and is averaging 26.0 points this season. Using the Poisson calculator with an expected average of 26 points and the prop of 29 points, it seems that a fair line on the under would be -229.75. At my book I can get under 29 for -110. Would this be considered a +EV proposition? Can Poisson be used for points scored by player or would it have to be "points (baskets) attempted per game?" I understand that KD may in fact have a big game, however, just based on the numbers is it the right side?

I would say do not take the under and its not a +EV. Durant put up 24 shots yesterday only scoring something like 16. Durant last year averaged about 1.3 points per shot which is unreal. Portland doesn't have a good enough 3 to guard him. Wes Mathews is their only chance. I would say that you cannot use those numbers at this point in the season because you dont have enough data.

[Goat Milk]

Knicks +3.5 -110 1st Half .5x

nothing exciting about the knicks/bulls game this is just an action play waiting for the late game

[Pauulzcappin]

Great play goat, Chicago so far on the season is much better in the 2nd half

[shari91]

Best of luck Goatie!

[WIZARDOFBEANTOWN]

good luck g on the season

[sneakerhead]

Goat

[cashil]

GL. Looking forward to your thoughts on Game 2 tonight

[The J-Dizzle]

So Goat I expect you play/like Durant over 28.5 points then if you think he will hit 30+ points easily? Do you like that over? BOL to your plays!

[BernardMadoff]

I would say do not take the under and its not a +EV. Durant put up 24 shots yesterday only scoring something like 16. Durant last year averaged about 1.3 points per shot which is unreal. Portland doesn't have a good enough 3 to guard him. Wes Mathews is their only chance. I would say that you cannot use those numbers at this point in the season because you dont have enough data.

Nicholas Batum is more than adequate.

[Stacocakes]

Great call on the knicks first half

[h3da]

i'd rank orlando above celtics.. orlando has been covering the spread like crazy whereas celtics have not.. any particular reason for celtics above orlando?

[Goat Milk]

OKC 1st Quarter +2 -115 .5x

this game is tough what a great game this will be. neve rplay first quarters- almost never. no data to back up this play

[slimpickins]

Tailing u on this play goat

[slimpickins]

U nailed that call goat
points sent in appreciation

[shari91]

OKC 1st Quarter +2 -115 .5x

this game is tough what a great game this will be. neve rplay first quarters- almost never. no data to back up this play

[Goat Milk]

Knicks +3.5 -110 1st Half .5x

OKC 1st Quarter +2 -115 .5x

2-0

Total: 16-5-1 76%

+200 Dogs or more: 0-0-0
Live Bets: 0-0-0
-150 MLs or more: 1-0-0

[sneakerhead]

Great calls on OKC and Knicks Goat

[No coincidences]

Nice work, Goat.

[Pauulzcappin]

great job goat. A lot of games tomorrow haven't checked the full card yet. so far I like the over on Raps/Lakers already booked that.