Worth it to bet ML on Huge Favorites?

**jeffries** · 01-09-08, 03:43 AM

It's not even worth it. its pocket change. Bet $100 on the Boston Celtics ML tomorrow to beat the Bobcats and they will pay you like what.... $7.00? Why even risk that kind of money for pocket change? The only time you want to bet an underdog ML is when the underdog really has a chance.. Detroit is an underdog tomorrow V Dallas.. Thats worth an underdog ML Purchase

Or even try the NY Giants ML over the Dallas Cowboys. Thats a ML where the Giants are very capable of defeating the Dallas Cowboys. With the line at Dallas -9, you'll make some great cash should the Giants win

**fearless** · 01-09-08, 07:24 AM

Originally posted by WSBetter

Sorry if this sounds like a stupid question, I'm new to betting on basketball specifically. But how often do teams that are favorites by the degree of -800 to -3000 lose a game? Assuming that I only bet on favorites that I feel are doing well at the moment on the ML is it still bound to be a loss betting like this in the long run?

With those kinds of favorites, you have to look at who the team is. The Spurs being -800 favorites means a lot more to me than a .500 team being a -800 favorite. Why? Because the Spurs are dominant and they have a habit of winning like 70% of all their games, much less when they're a huge favorite. Winning and losing gets in the DNA and becomes a part of you, I believe.

**Crayzee** · 01-09-08, 09:38 AM

if you really want to bet ml faves-i suggest parlaying a few teams

also roll your parlays over to the next day etc

**buztah** · 01-09-08, 10:23 AM

Definitely not worth it as you can guess right several times in a row but get one wrong and end up in the red. Look for near even or plus money for most of your plays. I like to bet on quality teams in must win games or games in which the motivation is high to win. That's why tonight I really like Detroit as they should come out gunning against Dallas after losing to Boston at home. Dalls, fyi, is not that great this year. I see several weaknesses that Detroit can exploit. I'm on Detroit ML tonight. GL!

**tevari** · 01-09-08, 10:43 AM

Like Crayzee said, it can be semi-profitable to parlay ML favs, I don't do it often but it can give a decent return

Wager Type: Parlay (3 team)
Wager Status: Win
Risk / To Win Amount: $300.00 / $339.92 (USD) Accepted 1/8/2008 12:39 PM - EST
Amount Paid: 639.9200000000001

Item #1
Wager Type: Money Line
Outcome: Win
Sport / Period: NBA Basketball / Game
Line:
Cleveland Cavaliers 1/8/2008 7:05 PM - (EST)
-470

Item #2
Wager Type: Money Line
Outcome: Win
Sport / Period: NBA Basketball / Game
Line:
Los Angeles Lakers 1/8/2008 8:05 PM - (EST)
-260

Item #3
Wager Type: Money Line
Outcome: Win
Sport / Period: NBA Basketball / Game
Line:
Utah Jazz 1/8/2008 9:05 PM - (EST)
-370

**WSBetter** · 01-09-08, 04:37 PM

Thanks for your comments, much appreciated.

Beted won't let me parlay -400 or more teams. Is there a book out there that lets me parlay -1000 teams together?
Thank you for your help.

**tevari** · 01-09-08, 05:07 PM

That's odd, there are much better books that will allow you to (Betjamaica, Thegreek)

**Time is Money** · 01-09-08, 05:09 PM

yes, thats how you make the money

the risk is big, obviously... if you bet -3000 MLs all the time, it takes 30 Wins to make up for 1 Loss and break even

but the chances are slim to none of that as long as you play the money smart

**pat venditto** · 01-09-08, 05:34 PM

betting big favs moneyline is generally -ev. if u bet big favorites u are just saying u cant handicap and u just wanna get lucky.

**Arnold** · 01-09-08, 11:34 PM

I have NBA data dating back to 00-01 season. For home favorites of <= -10 (pointspread), the ML record is 668-95 (87.5%; both teams played at least 5 games). I don't have the money line data, but average pointspread was -12 when home won. That's about -900 moneyline...which in the end means you will lose about -20.8 units.

It's better to take underdogs. Look at Charlotte today. They were +1400. I took Memphis this season at +1000 and won. But, that will not happen every time.

**ipickwinners** · 01-09-08, 11:50 PM

ok lets look at this like we have some sort of common sense. for a great example, lets look at tev's huge ML fav parlay play

cavs
lakers
and jazz

now cavs were fav by 9...they won by 16, they covered
lakers were fav by 6.5... they won by 16, they covered
jazz were fav by 8, they won by 22, they covered

so what was the point of risking $300 to win a measly $332 or w/e it was when he could have $1600 or so if he would have just taken them laying the points

what im trying to say, MOST professional sporting events, the line does not matter. id say 90%-95% of the time NFL games the line doesnt come within 1-2 points of hitting or missing. NBA its a little different, i dont know the number but i would guess somewhere around 70% of the time the line rarely matters.

so you just need to put in the time and work and you can win some mony,its really pointless to risk high amounts of money to gain a piss poor profit, and over time riskng that kinda money will bite u in the ass

anyways this is just my take on this issue, gl

**WSBetter** · 01-10-08, 12:43 AM

Thanks for everyone's input, it's really helpful.

And how Ironic that when I ask such a question, Celtics... LOL