confirmed WINNING STRATEGY in NBA

[curious]

Curious is an ignorant and arrogant tard. He likes to call names, and spew crap, but can't take any kind of criticism. Can't admit he's wrong. Sadly I think he's an old fart with no friends and no life.

Since I'm such a loser then why do you waste time talking to me? Just put me on block and move on.

[PDW]

Come on people, the guy has been gambling since all the way back in 2007. I think he (Curious) knows what he is doing.

[curious]

Come on people, the guy has been gambling since all the way back in 2007. I think he (Curious) knows what he is doing.

All they have to do is look in the NBA forum for the threads that we ran last year where we posted these loser of the first half wins the 3Q plays and see for themselves. but, of course they won't do that, they would rather talk trash.

[magic8ball]

I don't know about anyone else but... If someone offers a way for me to make more money, I will check it out fully. If it does not pan out, I move on. If it is sound, then call me crackhead all day long.

[curious]

I don't know about anyone else but... If someone offers a way for me to make more money, I will check it out fully. If it does not pan out, I move on. If it is sound, then call me crackhead all day long.

if you want stats on these strategies,
go to www.sportsdatabase.com and click on tne nba sports query language link

then run a query using:
season=2009 and team and (((P1+P2)<(o:P1+o:P2)) and (P3>=o:P3))
(that gives you the games per team where the team was trailing at the half and won the 3Q.)

then do:
season=2009 and team and (((P1+P2)<(o:P1+o:P2)) and (P3<o:P3))
(that gives you the games per team where the team was trailing at the half and lost the 3Q.)

We modified the play by adding a double up in the 4Q if the 3Q lost (rarely in the NBA does a team lose the 1st H, the 3Q AND the 4Q), you can get those by:
season=2009 and team and (((P1+P2)<(o:P1+o:P2)) and ((P3>=o:P3) or (P4>=o:P4)))
(number of games team was losing after 1st H and then won either the 3Q or the 4Q)

season=2009 and team and (((P1+P2)<(o:P1+o:P2)) and ((P3<o:P3) and (P4<o:P4)))
(number of games the team was losing after the 1st H and then lost both the 3Q and the 4Q)

as you will see, teams rarely are losing at the half and then lose both the 3Q and the 4Q, especially if the team lost both the 1Q and the 2Q. It almost never happens that an NBA team loses all 4 quarters.

We did filter these plays and threw out the scrub teams like the Kings, the Clippers, the Warriors, etc.

You have to find a book that will let you bet on the 4Q after the 3Q finishes. I know bet three sixy five has that, I think pinnacle sports has it.

We also did another strategy where we picked a team for the 1Q and bet that team. If that team won we then played a martingale on the other team for 2Q, 3Q, and 4Q until the other team won a Quarter. If the team we bet on in the 1Q lost we then martingaled that team for 2Q, 3Q, and 4Q until a win. Again you need a book that lets you bet the next Q after the previous Q has completed.

that query is:
season=2009 and team and P1>o:P1 or P2>o:P2 or P3>o:P3 or P4>o:P4
(returns the number of games where the team won at least one Q)

season=2009 and team and ((P1<o:P1) and (P2<o:P2) and (P3<o:P3) and (P4<o:P4))
(number of games where the team lost all 4 quarters)

[bigugly]

The stat is that the losers of the first half win the 3rd Q > 70% of the time. Not sure what the line has to do with that. If you can't make money on something that wins more than 70% of the time then you have big problems.

Playing the favs on the ML and the dogs + the points raises the win ratio much more than 70%. We also added the twist that if the 3rd Q play loses we double up on the 4Q. That pushed the win ratio beyond 80%.

Perennial loser.

[vyomguy]

Solid info curious .....these are the kind of posts I would like to see in this forum more often. Gave you some points bro .

[curious]

If I am not too busy when basketball season starts up again I will run my NCAAB and NBA threads again. We absolutely killed the books last year. I'm really busy this year so I'll have to wait and see.

[magic8ball]

Thanks for the info George. For the life of me I don't get why people are dildos when someone offers information. Some other jackass can make a post with nothing but, so and so is a lock, put a stupid ass dancing lock cartoon with it, and there will be 20 people saying thanks and good luck. You may be right, fukn crack heads.

[texhooper]

though our conversations have been brief and forgettable, i must say curious is one of my favorite posters. i don't know where he went but i'm glad he's back. not only does he always have solid information (this third quarter thing was ridiculous, i remember it, btw) but when he gets pissed off he posts some of the most classic rants i've ever read. can the crackheads please not run him out of here again? thanks.

[Wojo]

Perennial loser.

Big and Ugly,
If you're going to make statements such as this, have the balls to back it up with some reasoning why you believe this.

Otherwise, I will assume you have had to get back to your GED social studies homework.

Wojo

Thanks, Curious, for your posts! Good stuff.

[TakeIt]

Well then I guess I was dreaming when I was living in Vegas last year and making 3rd Q bets after the 1st Half ended every day of the freaking season.

Go away crackhead you are starting to bother me.

where in vegas can you make 3q bets after the 1st half has ended?

thanks.

[curious]

where in vegas can you make 3q bets after the 1st half has ended?

thanks.

everywhere, anywhere

[TakeIt]

everywhere, anywhere

well, you can't make them at the coast casinos, the venetian, the bellagio, the mirage, the wynn, the M or the Rio.

you can make 2nd 1/2 bets at most of these places, but not 3Q bets.

where exactly are you talking about?

thanks

[SparJMU]

Curious, I am not sure why these guys are ragging on you. You just provided some very useful information and you obviously know what you are doing.

Thanks for the information. If you ever decide to start taking PMs I would love to ask you some questions about handicapping professionally.

[TakeIt]

well, you can't make them at the coast casinos, the venetian, the bellagio, the mirage, the wynn, the M or the Rio.

you can make 2nd 1/2 bets at most of these places, but not 3Q bets.

where exactly are you talking about?

thanks

does anybody know? i've never seen a place in vegas where you could make a 1st quarter, 3 quarter or 4th quarter bet in basketball.

anybody?

[curious]

does anybody know? i've never seen a place in vegas where you could make a 1st quarter, 3 quarter or 4th quarter bet in basketball.

anybody?

Hlton

any of the good sportsbooks on fremont street

[AaronTheGambler]

gl never seen a working strategy

[TakeIt]

Hlton

any of the good sportsbooks on fremont street

thanks. i never get over to the hilton or downtown. just too far out of the way. strip casinos have the worst prices. coast casinos have better lines than the strip places.

thanks again.

[curious]

thanks. i never get over to the hilton or downtown. just too far out of the way. strip casinos have the worst prices. coast casinos have better lines than the strip places.

thanks again.

I lived at the Las Vegas Club for a while and there were several sportsbooks within walking distance of there that usually had good lines. I even found a book that offers the alternate runlines, reverse runlines, team totals, first five innings.

[SilkBC]

@ Curious: I was wondering if you (or anyone else familiar with <www.sportsdatabase.com> can clear something up for me, as i am relatively new to NBA betting.

if you want stats on these strategies,
go to www.sportsdatabase.com and click on tne nba sports query language link

then run a query using:
season=2009 and team and (((P1+P2)<(o:P1+o:P2)) and (P3>=o:P3))
(that gives you the games per team where the team was trailing at the half and won the 3Q.)

It gives output similar to this for each team:

ATS                OU                 SU
14-4-1 (3.4)     9-10-0 (2.6)     8-11 (-0.26)

I understand that ATS is Against The Spread, OU is Over/Under, but am not sure what SU is? "Straight Up"? if so, i assume it is the SU results (8 wins 11 losses in the above example) is what we pay attention to?


Thanks! :-)

-SilkBC

[magic8ball]

the team in question won the game 8 times. They covered with the + or - points 14 times.

[TakeIt]

I have a question about the queries.

I ran this query for the season and left out the individual teams to see how it did overall:

season=2009 and (((P1+P2)<(o:P1+o:P2)) and ((P3>=o:P3) or (P4>=o:P4)))
(number of games team was losing after 1st H and then won either the 3Q or the 4Q)

and i got the following results:

SU: 354-710 (-4.5)

ATS: 405-637-22 (-2.7) avg line: 1.8

O/U: 511-532-21 (0.1) avg total: 200.4

i'm not sure i know how to read this. take the SU example. does this mean they won 345 times in that situation and lost 710 times?

thanks.

[magic8ball]

nope.

[wrongturn]

The SU is end game result. The number of games that satisfies your query is (354+710)/2 = 532, since every game counted twice by home team and also by away team.

[TakeIt]

The SU is end game result. The number of games that satisfies your query is (354+710)/2 = 532, since every game counted twice by home team and also by away team.

so are you saying that 532 out of 710 or 74% is the answer?

if that's correct, then how do you write the query to get that specific answer?

if i change the query to this:

season=2009 and home and (((P1+P2)<(o:P1+o:P2)) and ((P3>=o:P3) or (P4>=o:P4)))

I get these results:

SU: 354-711 (-4.5)
ATS: 405-638-22 (-2.7)
O/U: 511-533-21 (0.1)

which are basically the same.

i've actually done quite a few of these queries in the past, but i'm lost now.

[wrongturn]

No, 74% is not the answer you are looking for. I agree the output of query is not easy to understand. 532 is the number of games that team trailing 1H won either 3Q or 4Q. Then you need another query to get number of games that 1H didn't end in a tie. Divide the two numbers, you get the percentage you are looking for.

[curious]

I have a question about the queries.

I ran this query for the season and left out the individual teams to see how it did overall:

season=2009 and (((P1+P2)<(o:P1+o:P2)) and ((P3>=o:P3) or (P4>=o:P4)))
(number of games team was losing after 1st H and then won either the 3Q or the 4Q)

and i got the following results:

SU: 354-710 (-4.5)

ATS: 405-637-22 (-2.7) avg line: 1.8

O/U: 511-532-21 (0.1) avg total: 200.4

i'm not sure i know how to read this. take the SU example. does this mean they won 345 times in that situation and lost 710 times?

thanks.

No, add the number of games together and that gives the number of games in total where the team losing after the 1st Half won or tied either the 3Q or 4Q.

Now do another query to find out the number of games where the team that was losing after the 1st Half lost both the 3Q and 4Q.

Then divide the first number by first number + second number.

We used some filters on this. First, we threw out the scrub teams. I think that was Washington, Clippers, and Sacramento, but I don't remember for certain. Then, we didn't start playing this until a bit later in the season because we spotted the trend.

Another thing that you can't get from sportsdatabase.com is the spread. We took favs on the money line and dogs + the points so our actual win % was a lot higher than what sportsdatabase is showing because the query we are using is showing the actual points scored and is not taking into account the spread.

[balman]

i was going to try this out last night but Pinnacle didnt offer 3Q betting at halftime... only 2nd half lines.. however the strategy would have worked as i was going to bet on the celtics for 3Q, and if they had lost the 3Q i would have doubled up in Q4 correct?

looking at the 1st 3 games this would have worked for all 3 games
1st game celtics were down after 1st half lost the 3Q won the 4th
2nd game lakers were down after 1st half won the 3Q

Curios does this work for football?

[curious]

i was going to try this out last night but Pinnacle didnt offer 3Q betting at halftime... only 2nd half lines.. however the strategy would have worked as i was going to bet on the celtics for 3Q, and if they had lost the 3Q i would have doubled up in Q4 correct?

looking at the 1st 3 games this would have worked for all 3 games
1st game celtics were down after 1st half lost the 3Q won the 4th
2nd game lakers were down after 1st half won the 3Q

Curios does this work for football?

try bet365 or betus

a lot of places don't offer all the props during playoffs and I never bet on post season games so I don't really know.

no, this does not work for football.

[lyon804]

....

[Hybris]

I love Curious

[bornselling]

[COLOR=#000000 !important]Funny thread...A good laugh...4 stars![/COLOR]

[lapi7]

Hello Curious and all.
Insightful thread.
I too have (manually) looked over the win / loss ratios of individual NBA game quarters for several years.
Thanks for turning me us the Database. It's a brilliant time saver.
The initial concept is (statically) an overall winner.
However here are the problems that I've run into.
First off there are indeed several online sports books that do allow 2nd and 4th quarter wagering. I had no ides that there were B+M casinos in Vegas that permitted these bets.
I know that online Bet365 is one of them that does allow these bets and I'm certain that there are several others. Problems is that online these types of bets are usually only allowed at well established books in the U.K.
The U.S. books that allow these bets are available to be seen (only during NBA season) at this site: http://odds.sbrforum.com/
This site offers you everything LIVE. In the upper left part You'll have to navigate around. It offers a live comparison of all of the different books. It's got 3 pages of live sports books (and you can choose your favorite books to compare) and you can choose any option you wish to see. 1st Half ML, ATS, O/U. 2nd Half ML, ATS, O/U, 1st, 2nd 3rd 4th Quarter ML, ATS, O/U...etc.

The problem with this is that the time in between quarters is so brief that the books call it "live" betting and the juice is -120 for a point spread wager. I've never checked out how much an average ML per quarter wager goes for.
Anyway, It's really tough when your quarter FINALLY wins you lose anyway by 1 point because of the spread!!!! This has happens to me over and over...and it's tough to eat it.

I'm not really sure how much a Marty with a large ML like -150 or more per quarter is going to fair. Maybe Curious can give us some insight on that since he's had a bit of experience with it. I'm guessing that on those rare occasions where a team loses all 4 quarters it's gotta put your profits back a HUGE amount!

By the way, using the database for the years 2008 & 2009 There were only 98 times that a team lost all 4 quarters in 09 and of those losses ONLY 8 were favorites of -2 or higher. In 08 there were 85 games where all 4 quarters lost and only 13 of those losses were favorites of -2 or higher. Just food for thought folks.

Hey Curious...thanks for your help in this thread. Any further input you might have (especially regarding ML per quarter averages) is greatly appreciated. Also would LOVE to hear what you've got going with NCAA Basketball.
Best to all...NBA will be here sooner that we can imagine. Better to put our ducks in a row and plan NOW rather than running around like azzholes in November.

[daneault23]

You guys think this approach might also work for beaver ball?