confirmed WINNING STRATEGY in NBA

[lapi7]

It's worth a 'look see'
I'll do some back testing however the real question is going to be whether any online casinos will even take 2nd or 4th quarter action.
If they do the juice might be too high.

[filter15]

I'm sure this has already been disproved

[jcubs55]

I'm sure this has already been disproved

It was... in post #2

[samdapatriotsfan]

You guys think this approach might also work for beaver ball?

He said Beaver Ball!!!!

[crazymilkman]

I hope it is true based on those numbers

[loyd]

lets wait till there are basket matches to bet on as there are none these days.

[daneault23]

lets wait till there are basket matches to bet on as there are none these days.

There is that ugly basketball type activity called WNBA that is happening these days, but this approach probably doesn't work with them since they're so damnnn unpredictable.

[curious]

Hello Curious and all.
Insightful thread.
I too have (manually) looked over the win / loss ratios of individual NBA game quarters for several years.
Thanks for turning me us the Database. It's a brilliant time saver.
The initial concept is (statically) an overall winner.
However here are the problems that I've run into.
First off there are indeed several online sports books that do allow 2nd and 4th quarter wagering. I had no ides that there were B+M casinos in Vegas that permitted these bets.
I know that online Bet365 is one of them that does allow these bets and I'm certain that there are several others. Problems is that online these types of bets are usually only allowed at well established books in the U.K.
The U.S. books that allow these bets are available to be seen (only during NBA season) at this site: http://odds.sbrforum.com/
This site offers you everything LIVE. In the upper left part You'll have to navigate around. It offers a live comparison of all of the different books. It's got 3 pages of live sports books (and you can choose your favorite books to compare) and you can choose any option you wish to see. 1st Half ML, ATS, O/U. 2nd Half ML, ATS, O/U, 1st, 2nd 3rd 4th Quarter ML, ATS, O/U...etc.

The problem with this is that the time in between quarters is so brief that the books call it "live" betting and the juice is -120 for a point spread wager. I've never checked out how much an average ML per quarter wager goes for.
Anyway, It's really tough when your quarter FINALLY wins you lose anyway by 1 point because of the spread!!!! This has happens to me over and over...and it's tough to eat it.

Well you didn't read my strategy then. You play favs on the ML and dogs + the points. You filter out the scrub teams, I think we filtered out the 3 teams that were .200. I'm not sure what you mean by FINALLY wins, so few games end up with one team losing all 4 quarters straight up and when you consider that you always take the dogs + the points it almost never happens. I don't know what plays you made that you lost "over and over" but we never saw that with the quarter plays.

I'm not really sure how much a Marty with a large ML like -150 or more per quarter is going to fair. Maybe Curious can give us some insight on that since he's had a bit of experience with it. I'm guessing that on those rare occasions where a team loses all 4 quarters it's gotta put your profits back a HUGE amount!

You aren't playing all 4 Q, you play the 3 Q and martingale the 4Q if the 3Q loses. So, yes sometimes the losses are ugly, which is why they call it gambling. If you want an annuity call your insurance agent.

[
By the way, using the database for the years 2008 & 2009 There were only 98 times that a team lost all 4 quarters in 09 and of those losses ONLY 8 were favorites of -2 or higher. In 08 there were 85 games where all 4 quarters lost and only 13 of those losses were favorites of -2 or higher. Just food for thought folks.

If you can get the quarter spreads, run the numbers again where you take the dogs + the points. The win % will be much higher.

Hey Curious...thanks for your help in this thread. Any further input you might have (especially regarding ML per quarter averages) is greatly appreciated. Also would LOVE to hear what you've got going with NCAA Basketball.
Best to all...NBA will be here sooner that we can imagine. Better to put our ducks in a row and plan NOW rather than running around like azzholes in November.

I don't have the per quarter averages for the MLs. I can tell you that the big favs can be really rough on the ML. This strategy isn't for the faint of heart. This is what makes it work:
1. Take the favs on the ML and the dogs + the points.
2. You need several books so you can shop lines.
3. You have to filter out the scrub teams.
4. You have to martingale the losses, but this only works IF you filter out the scrub teams.

We didn't just ANALyze this, we played it with real money for an entire season. I quit running the thread because I got sick of the idiots running their mouths.

[lapi7]

I'm not sure what you mean by FINALLY wins, so few games end up with one team losing all 4 quarters straight up and when you consider that you always take the dogs + the points it almost never happens. I don't know what plays you made that you lost "over and over" but we never saw that with the quarter plays.

Well Curious, during the times that I played very often when a favorite has won the first half and many times both the 1st and 2nd Quarters as well and I attempt to Marty the 3rd and 4th Quarters looking for the dog to win one of those quarters SU the book would actually GIVE the Fav. points and I would have to lay points on the Dog. And yes, several times (even though the dog might win the quarter SU) I would lose by a point or by half a point on the lay. It's as if the bookmaker is already aware that the dog is going to win one of the last two quarters so they offer lay points.

Now maybe you haven't run into this but I have. Perhaps the B+M casinos on Freemont offer points that one can't find online.

[dimon]

I think that the system calls to play the 3d quarter favorite ML, and dog +points....so if let's say BOS is up 15 at the half with POR for example...and line for the 3q is POR (-2.5) you play POR ML -170...or something like that...am understanding this right?

[curious]

I think that the system calls to play the 3d quarter favorite ML, and dog +points....so if let's say BOS is up 15 at the half with POR for example...and line for the 3q is POR (-2.5) you play POR ML -170...or something like that...am understanding this right?

It's real simple. You ignore who is the fav/dog for the game. For the 3rd quarter bet, if the loser of the 1st half is being given points then you take the points. If the loser of the 1st half is laying points then you take the money line.

If the loser of the 1st half loses the 3Q and you can find a book that allows in game 4Q bets, then you take that team again on the 4Q for double the bet, again taking the points if points are being given and playing the moneyline if the team is laying the points.

NEVER EVER EVER lay points on a quarter bet.

[curious]

Well Curious, during the times that I played very often when a favorite has won the first half and many times both the 1st and 2nd Quarters as well and I attempt to Marty the 3rd and 4th Quarters looking for the dog to win one of those quarters SU the book would actually GIVE the Fav. points and I would have to lay points on the Dog. And yes, several times (even though the dog might win the quarter SU) I would lose by a point or by half a point on the lay. It's as if the bookmaker is already aware that the dog is going to win one of the last two quarters so they offer lay points.

Now maybe you haven't run into this but I have. Perhaps the B+M casinos on Freemont offer points that one can't find online.

I haven't run into this because I never lay points. When I say dog/fav I mean the dog/fav for the quarter, not the game. Always take points when betting the team being given points and the money line when betting the team that is laying points.

[DaBA]

curious is a flamer.

[dimon]

I think that I got the main points of this one...and I think that if you lab. line the bets then you will have better results...what do you guys think?

[Sawyer]

Looks interesting. Yeah, labouchere may be a good idea.

[curious]

I think that I got the main points of this one...and I think that if you lab. line the bets then you will have better results...what do you guys think?

We played this a couple of years ago and posted all the results. It was smoking. I can't remember if it was last year or the year before.

[Flying Dutchman]

curious, any interest in swapping dbs?

Thanx

[lapi7]

If the loser of the 1st half loses the 3Q and you can find a book that allows in game 4Q bets, then you take that team again on the 4Q..."

Hi Curious,
No disrespect intended...but I'm just curious...(no pun intended)
Much earlier in this thread you mentioned that 3rd & 4th quarter action was very easy to be found. You mentioned the Hilton for one and many of the other B+M casinos "Downtown" or on Fremont Street. Now you are saying "and you can find a book that allows in game 4Q bets,..." So where do you stand on this issue? Are "in game" or "live betting" 3rd and 4th Qtr. bets easy to find and if so is it only at B+M casinos in Vegas? What's the juice on these bets? What about online?

I can tell you that online Bet365 offers these bets. However, there are some considerable drawbacks. First, all "Live bets" open at -120. That's just too much and will take a HUGE chunk out of your bank. Even at a high % win rate you may come up short. Secondly, they only offer a limited amount of "Live Bet" games. For example suppose that there are 8 NBA games on the evening schedule...they may only offer only 4 or 5 of them. Then, worst of all, they very often might offer the 3rd Quarter "live bet" option and then NOT offer the 4th Quarter. That really sucks especially if you're using a Marty to makeup 3rd Quarter losses.

Anyway Curious, I was just wondering if you had ever run into any of these situations. Grant you my experience is from one online casino only and it seems to me that you have a lot more experience in the actual NBA Quarter betting arena than I do. Any insights that you can offer? Thanks in advance.

Also, one last question. What's you criteria for a team to qualify as a "Scrub"? Winning % 250 or lower? And how long into the season do you wait to validate their status as an official "Scrub"? Thanks.

[stuiees]

i played my last nba season at sportsbook and they often had 1q 2q 3q and 4q lines (not always every game but usually a few different games a night). these line would come out after the previous quarter ended. they were not considered "in running" or "live bets" and they were priced at -110. I am neither advocating nor discouraging people to use this system, but seriously stop saying that the system isnt possible to play, because it is. saying other wise is simply moronic and it show how inexperienced you are with wagering nba.

[Blue_Chips]

Sportsbetting.com offers all 4 quarters. We cannot use Bet365 or Pinnacle in the U.S. Does anyone know of another book in the U.S. that allows you to play all the quarters? Also, which casinos on Fremont? I know about the Hilton.

Thanks for your time.

[BernardMadoff]

At 5dimes you can play 3rd quarter and 4th quarter at halftime and before the game starts, but you cant play 4th quarter once the second half begins unless its a game thats offered for live betting and they only offer a few of those a week, so this strategy wouldnt present itself often on 5dimes.

[lapi7]

but seriously stop saying that the system isnt possible to play, because it is. saying other wise is simply moronic and it show how inexperienced you are with wagering nba.

Please show me ANYWHERE in this thread where I stated that this system is impossible to play !!!
C'mon...point out the quote or even the inference !!!

I am simply attempting to explain the difficulties I've had with trying to find a book that will take these bets and am looking for a way to rectify and help myself out with finding answers to my questions.

So, (to partially quote you) "... but seriously stop saying that I'm saying the system isn't possible to play, because I'm not. Saying other wise is simply moronic and it shows how inexperienced you are with reading and understanding simple inquiries."

And while you're at it please learn how to properly spell and punctuate basic English sentences. It is simply moronic and it shows how inexperienced you are at writing, articulating and expressing your limited understanding of the English language.

Now back to the other issue at hand. Curious mentioned that we ought to discard "Scrub teams". Does anybody have a statistical criteria as to what constitutes a certain team as a "Scrub team" and how long into the NBA season one should wait to validate that team as such. Any non-demeaning, helpful insights are appreciated in advance. Thanks.

[dom75]

In my opinion you can make this strategy work in 5dimes, it's just how bad do you really want to gamble and do you feel lucky enough. During half time you can bet the 3rd quater only and take a 50/50 chance of winning. However if ya bet both the 3rd and 4th during halftime, you still have a chance to make up for your bet if the 3rd quarter loses. And if it is your lucky day, you just might win both the 3rd and 4th quater bets. Atleast that is the way I am seeing it.

[dom75]

I read this posting yesterday and thought this sound like a pretty good idea to follow. People within here have said alot of good things about this system, but like any system there was that lil voice in the back of the head saying what if ! So, last night I watched the Rockets Nets replay and the Rockets dominated the 1st and 2nd quarters. The Nets were down by 5 to 10 points going into halftime. I watched the 3rd quarter and the Nets came out on fire, and the Rockets just lost a bit of steam. The Nets won the 3rd by a few points and the Rockets came back to take the 4th and win the game. I am convinced this is a good stratagey to play. Heck even if you still don't feel all that safe with it, I say look back at past games, pull up the scoring history, or watch a few games and see how they turn out. You will soon be a believer. Ca-ching !

[lapi7]

Hi Dom75 & All,
Not to act as a spoiler but while you are correct regarding the 1st half losing team winning either the 3rd or 4th Qtr. it can still be very dangerous. I looked back over my records from several years ago and found MANY situations where the first half losing team (who surprisingly was an almost even mix of both Fav. and Dog) was having to either lay points (which, according to Curious, you're never suppose to do) OR the ML for the losing team was anywhere from -150 up to -420 to win the 3rd Qtr.

If they failed to win the 3rd Qtr. then by the 4th Qtr. the ML was outrageous !!! And while most of the time the losing team will indeed cover that last Qtr. when they DO lose (and it does happen more often than you think) then you are out big time. If you're playing a Marty this can really put a major dent into your yearly profits. It can even set you back into the negative depending on your MM skills.

It seems that the books are quite aware of the fact that in a great percentage of games both teams will win at lease one quarter and they are going to make you pay for it as the game progresses and your team hasn't yet won their Qtr.

I'm not trying to be negative but when looking back over my Qtr. line records it can make a punter quite apprehensive to say the least.

It's also a bit laughable when you see a team with a game line of +12 having to lay points for the Qtr. or having a ML of -275 to win that Qtr.
Yes, Ch-ching !!! But a major "OUCH" bankroll setback on the occasions when they don't cover.

It kinda reminds me of the John Morrison System. Win 96%...yes !!! But when you DO lose you lose BIG TIME and the books know it !!!

Sorry to seem so negative. Like the rest of you I'm looking for the proverbial "Holy Grail" too. And (if you have the bank and proper MM skills) perhaps this is it. But I'd rather be fully aware of the major pitfalls of any system before I let my emotions get the better of me thinking that I've finally hit the lottery.

[lapi7]

Also please read my previous posts where finding a REPUTABLE online book to take these bets can be difficult. Not to mention the fact that I've had several books that would offer "live betting" only on some games and not others and if the first half losing team didn't win the 3rd Qtr. then very often the book would take the "live betting" option OTB (Off The Board) for the 4th Qtr. and would allow no 4th Qtr. betting whatsoever.

That really stinks because when using a Marty because you have no chance to win back the money you put up and lost playing the 3rd Qtr.

A winning strategy may be to only play quarters where you are being offered Pk or points and then pray that if you lose the 3rd Qtr. and need to play the 4th Qtr.that it is not taken off the board and that perhaps you will be getting points rather than having to lay them (which you're never supposed to do) or having to put up a huge -300 ML.

Any suggestions as to how to refine this whole system concept into a viable playable form would be quite welcome by me. Perhaps thinking outside the box would offer some hope like utilizing Sawyers labouchere suggestion. We simply need to brainstorm together to perhaps come up with a viable and profitable solution. Any insights or suggestions from anyone?

[Plu$Money]

I am also having a hard time finding a book that allows betting the 4th quarter after the 3rd quarter.. It seems 5dimes doesn't allow it, betjm, bookmaker, or legends.. Some of them say they allow the 4th quarter games for "live betting" which doesn't include all of the games..

I remember seeing curious thread before and this system did kill it.. If anyone has info on what books (that allow us players) to take the 3rd
quarter at halftime and also the 4th quarter after the 3rd has finised please let me know because I am looking forward to playing this system but need
to find a book to play it at. Thanks

[lapi7]

I am also having a hard time finding a book that allows betting the 4th quarter after the 3rd quarter.. It seems 5dimes doesn't allow it, betjm, bookmaker, or legends.. Some of them say they allow the 4th quarter games for "live betting" which doesn't include all of the games..

I remember seeing curious thread before and this system did kill it.. If anyone has info on what books (that allow us players) to take the 3rd quarter at halftime and also the 4th quarter after the 3rd has finished please let me know because I am looking forward to playing this system but need
to find a book to play it at. Thanks

5dimes DOES allow 3rd quarter bets at halftime. It also allows 4th quarter bets BUT these must also be made at halftime as they do not allow bets in between the 3rd and 4th quarter. This is problematic as one does not know the results of the 3rd Qtr. before the 4th Qtr. unless he's taken on the mantle of Edgar Cayce.

Bet365 allows "Live or In Progress" betting between all quarters but the opening spread lines are -120 and the ML's are often -150 to -425 !!! And again the 4th Qtr is sometimes pulled OTB (Off The Board) if the losing team didn't cover or win the 3rd Qtr SU.

I'd also be interested in following Curious' earlier thread which I can't seem to find. Can you give me a link?

[EasyHustlin]

Lapi7,

The first problem, as you've stated multiple times, is to find a book that offers ML and spreads on all 4 quarters and leaves them up throughout the game. I have heard that Pinnacle offers them, so that would be the first place to check out because they are among the most reputable in the business. As far as Bet365 goes, what about 1st & 2nd quarters? If they at least offered those then it might be worth the trouble. If you're a U.S. player, sportsbetting.com appears to offer ML's for all 4 quarters, as well as "updated" quarters, so that sounds promising. We'll see if it's legit when the regular season starts.

As for brainstorming, I've done a lot of backtesting on these quarter plays and I've found some other good ones besides just playing the 1st half loser in the 3rd. For example, if there's a tie in the 1st quarter, martingale the home team for the 3 remaining quarters. Wins at an incredibly high rate. I think it won 55 in a row at some point last year. This would require a book that offers ALL 4 quarters though.

Also, instead of just throwing out the 3 or 4 bottom feeders and playing all games, I noticed that you will win at a much higher percentage if you only play games where there is a difference in win % no greater than 20% between the two opponents. The spreads for these games will be much lower and the moneylines wouldn't be too inflated. Plus one team will very rarely lose all 4 quarters in a non-lopsided game.

It seems that the books are quite aware of the fact that in a great percentage of games both teams will win at lease one quarter and they are going to make you pay for it as the game progresses and your team hasn't yet won their Qtr.

It's also a bit laughable when you see a team with a game line of +12 having to lay points for the Qtr. or having a ML of -275 to win that Qtr.

There is no way a book could sustain that kind of line movement. If a team that is being given 12 points on the game is laying points for the quarter, sharps will take the points for the fav all day and make a killing. Hell, if it started to become a problem, I would just fade the line movement. If you look at NBA scores from the past, the team that wins the 1st quarter will usually also win another quarter, so that could be on to something if the book tried to take advantage in any way.

Bottom line is this. I have no doubt in my mind this is a successful and profitable strategy. I've backtested the hell out of it and gotten nothing but great numbers. I am not worried about a book's line movement because I know that if they try to pull anything then it's way too easy to take advantage. The elephant in the room is FINDING A BOOK THAT OFFERS THEM. I am banking on Pinnacle or sportsbetting.com, but if they don't then we're SOL.

[EasyHustlin]

I'd also be interested in following Curious' earlier thread which I can't seem to find. Can you give me a link?

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basketball-handicapping/140492-fri-jan-30-plays.html

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basketball-handicapping/142683-thurs-feb-5-plays.html

There are a few.

[dimon]

I talked to books, and was told by the rep from BoDog, that they have 4th q after the 3d q...on all games...can anyone confirm this???

[EasyHustlin]

I talked to books, and was told by the rep from BoDog, that they have 4th q after the 3d q...on all games...can anyone confirm this???

Be careful with live betting at Bodog. I have heard a lot of people have winning bets graded as "post action" simply because they won. I would be surprised if they actually did offer the 3rd and 4th quarters for the whole game anyway. I remember a while back I asked a rep from the Greek and they told me they offered them. I swear to god these offshore reps cannot give you an honest, straightforward answer on anything.

[lapi7]

Lapi7,

The first problem, as you've stated multiple times, is to find a book that offers ML and spreads on all 4 quarters and leaves them up throughout the game. I have heard that Pinnacle offers them, so that would be the first place to check out because they are among the most reputable in the business. As far as Bet365 goes, what about 1st & 2nd quarters? If they at least offered those then it might be worth the trouble. If you're a U.S. player, sportsbetting.com appears to offer ML's for all 4 quarters, as well as "updated" quarters, so that sounds promising. We'll see if it's legit when the regular season starts.

Hi EasyHustlin

Good information and great insights. Nice to see a sharp one offering up their study and experiences. Thanks.
Bet365 1st & 2nd quarters are fine with the exception that "In Play" betting lines open at -120. However I'm pretty certain that one could forgo the 1st quarter "In Play" option and simply grab the opening line before tip-off. Of course this could also be done at any book (like 5dimes) that offers a 1st quarter bet.

As for brainstorming, I've done a lot of backtesting on these quarter plays and I've found some other good ones besides just playing the 1st half loser in the 3rd. For example, if there's a tie in the 1st quarter, martingale the home team for the 3 remaining quarters. Wins at an incredibly high rate. I think it won 55 in a row at some point last year. This would require a book that offers ALL 4 quarters though.

Right! These are the kind of options that are great for back testing and ripe with profit potential. The only drawback I see with this is having to use a 3 step marty. I'm trying to find and utilize betting situations that limit the marty or require only a single level bet (such as betting only on one quarter) or a 2 level marty at most. This is even more relevant financially if you ave to use a negative money line in your levels. Once you go to 3 levels (especially when having to use negative ML's) you will indeed win more often but when you DO lose it may offset a HUGE amount of already gained profits !!!

Sawyers idea of using a Labouchere approach also seems to have good potential. I think I'll monkey around with that idea as well.

I've got several others that I've been looking into myself. Here are a few that I've done limited back testing on that seem to have good potential. If anybody wants to run the numbers with these and report back I'm certain you'll be on a lot of punters Christmas card lists.

Here are a few single quarter or 2 step marty's I've been playing with.

1) Play on any team that is losing by 10 points or more at the end of the third quarter. Bet that losing team to win the 4th quarter. (Additional option) The team you bet must be at PK or be getting points.

2) Play on any dog that is losing by 8 points or more at the end of the third quarter. Bet the dog to win the 4th quarter. (Additional option) The team you bet must be at PK or be getting points.

3) Play on any -2.5 or higher game favorite who is tied or losing at the half. Bet that favorite to win either the 3rd quarter (if they do win then stop there) or bet them to win the 4th quarter (if they did not win the 3rd quarter)

4) Play on any -2.5 or higher game Home favorite who is losing by 7 points or more at the end of the 3rd quarter. Bet that losing Home favorite team to win the 4th quarter.

I've got some others but I will not post them yet as the back testing is still in it's preliminary stages.

Also, instead of just throwing out the 3 or 4 bottom feeders and playing all games, I noticed that you will win at a much higher percentage if you only play games where there is a difference in win % no greater than 20% between the two opponents. The spreads for these games will be much lower and the moneylines wouldn't be too inflated. Plus one team will very rarely lose all 4 quarters in a non-lopsided game.

Yep...although some will say that this would put a crimp on the action it's profit potential far outweigh it's limitations. And I believe that anybody who plays for action is going to hit the pavement fast and hard.
A good punter should always take quality over quantity...patience...patience...wait for your spot...wait...wait...wait...OK NOW !!!!

Bottom line is this. I have no doubt in my mind this is a successful and profitable strategy. I've backtested the hell out of it and gotten nothing but great numbers. I am not worried about a book's line movement because I know that if they try to pull anything then it's way too easy to take advantage. The elephant in the room is FINDING A BOOK THAT OFFERS THEM. I am banking on Pinnacle or sportsbetting.com, but if they don't then we're SOL.

I'm not crazy about sportsbetting.com but Pinnacle is spot on !!!
Perhaps, there are some elephant catchers out there that know of some other reputable online books that allow live quarter betting. I believe that the profitable possibilities with NBA quarter betting are endless. Might even be worth a Winter/Spring hiatus to Vegas where (I've heard) there many B+M casinos that offer these types of wagers.

Anyone with more suggestions or information...please chime in.

Thanks again EH for all these helpful insights and thanks for the links to Curious' threads that you posted above. Much appreciated.

[BankrollBuilding]

How about just flat betting the dogs plus the points for the 3rd quarter only? Could we go 55% PLUS just doing this? No big MLs, no chasing

[lapi7]

Nice idea BB but, sorry to say, it just wont work.
Go to: http://sportsdatabase.com/nba.py/query
Enter: season=2009and team and (((P1+P2)<(o:P1+o:P2)) and (P3>o:P3)) into the SDQL box.
This will tell you how many teams that year were losing at the half and how many times the losing team lost the 3rd quarter.
In this example the losing team at the half lost the 3rd quarter 626 times.
Then, conversely, enter: season=2009and team and (((P1+P2)<(o:P1+o:P2)) and (P3>o:P3)) into the SDQL box.
This will tell you how many teams that year were losing at the half and how many times the losing team won the 3rd quarter.
In this example the losing team at the half won the 3rd quarter 709 times.
The overall winning percentage was 53%. With juice figured in it's a tough call with very limited profits if any.
The Database offers stats from 1995 on. From 1995 through 2009 here is how 3rd quarter wins and losses stack up for the team that was losing at halftime.
Wins: 9698 -- Losses: 8764 Winning percentage 525%
Not too good.