NBA Betting Odds: Suns Can Take 2-0 Lead
So much for the rebuilding that Phoenix was supposed to be going through this season. Led by double-double's from stars Amare Stoudemire and Steve Nash, the Suns took Game 1 from the Spurs on Monday, 111-102. The win leaves Phoenix three short of reaching the Western Conference Finals, a number that can be cut to two Wednesday night on the Suns' home court. TNT will provide the pictures starting at 9 p.m. ET.
Is it time to give Steve Kerr some credit?
The Phoenix Suns turned out to be an excellent basketball team this year, despite being written off by many analysts during the offseason. According to their narrative, this was going to be a rebuilding year after the failure of the Shaquille O’Neal experiment.
It was a quick rebuild: Phoenix took the third seed in the Western Conference at 54-28 SU and a highly profitable 48-33-1 ATS.
It gets better. The Suns advanced to the second round by dusting off the Portland Trail Blazers in six games at 4-2 ATS. And they’ve already gotten the jump on the San Antonio Spurs (50-32 SU, 44-37-1 ATS), winning Monday’s opener 111-102 as 4-point home favorites. Steve Nash scored 33 points with 10 assists, including 17 points in the first quarter as he repeatedly got around sophomore guard George Hill.
It’s easy to see why bettors got a little down on the Suns. Owner Robert Sarver came under fire for pinching his pennies and selling off draft picks like Luol Deng and Rajon Rondo for cash. If the Suns always seemed a player or two short of beating San Antonio, that was why. The Spurs eliminated Phoenix in 2005 and 2007 en route to the championship; Kerr took over from Mike D’Antoni as GM, and the Spurs bounced Phoenix again in 2008.
Looking back, you can see the market cresting on the Suns at roughly the same time Kerr arrived on the scene.
2008-09: 46-36 SU, 35-44-2 ATS
2007-08: 55-27 SU, 39-40-3 ATS
2006-07: 61-21 SU, 44-37-1 ATS
2005-06: 54-28 SU, 44-37-1 ATS
2004-05: 62-20 SU, 41-39-2 ATS
But then a funny thing happened. Kerr sent O’Neal packing to the Cleveland Cavaliers for cap space, retained the services of Nash and Amare Stoudemire, and surrounded them with complementary scorers like Jason Richardson (16.63 PER) and Channing Frye (15.09 PER). Nash’s backup at point guard, Goran Dragic (14.87 PER), showed marked improvement in his second NBA season. So did center Robin Lopez (17.66 PER), who is currently injured but could make an appearance later in this series. Suddenly Phoenix was the deep, talented and profitable team we see today.
The Spurs have drafted well during the stewardship of Gregg Popovich and R.C. Buford, nabbing Hill (14.70 PER) with the No. 26 pick in 2008 draft and using him effectively in their first-round victory over the favored Dallas Mavericks. But Hill was incapable of stopping the two-time MVP Nash in Game 1 and finished with a team-worst minus-22. Meanwhile, underwhelming offseason acquisitions Richard Jefferson (13.18 PER) and Antonio McDyess (12.29 PER) were combining for 11 points and a minus-19.
San Antonio has the championship rings and the reputation that goes with it. And as the Dallas Mavericks discovered in the first round, talent isn’t enough in the NBA. The betting market is still giving the Spurs the benefit of the doubt. They’re 2.5-point favorites in Wednesday’s Game 2, reflecting the influence of the zigzag theory as Popovich makes his adjustments from Game 1. For example, we’re likely to see even more small ball as San Antonio tries to keep up with the Suns’ pace. All four games they’ve played this season have gone 'over,' with Phoenix cashing in each time. Wednesday’s total has soared from 202 to 205½ as the betting odds try to keep up.
Popovich can only work with the players he’s got, and he doesn’t enjoy the same backcourt advantage in this series that he did against he Mavericks. On those occasions when Popovich went with a three-guard lineup in Game 1, Suns coach Alvin Gentry responded by assigning Richardson (6-foot-6) to guard Hill (6-foot-2). Perhaps Roger Mason (6-foot-5) will get more burn in Game 2; however, Mason appears to have lost his stroke from long range at 24.5 percent since the All-Star break. The Spurs could desperately use that floor spacing right now.
So much for the rebuilding that Phoenix was supposed to be going through this season. Led by double-double's from stars Amare Stoudemire and Steve Nash, the Suns took Game 1 from the Spurs on Monday, 111-102. The win leaves Phoenix three short of reaching the Western Conference Finals, a number that can be cut to two Wednesday night on the Suns' home court. TNT will provide the pictures starting at 9 p.m. ET.
Is it time to give Steve Kerr some credit?
The Phoenix Suns turned out to be an excellent basketball team this year, despite being written off by many analysts during the offseason. According to their narrative, this was going to be a rebuilding year after the failure of the Shaquille O’Neal experiment.
It was a quick rebuild: Phoenix took the third seed in the Western Conference at 54-28 SU and a highly profitable 48-33-1 ATS.
It gets better. The Suns advanced to the second round by dusting off the Portland Trail Blazers in six games at 4-2 ATS. And they’ve already gotten the jump on the San Antonio Spurs (50-32 SU, 44-37-1 ATS), winning Monday’s opener 111-102 as 4-point home favorites. Steve Nash scored 33 points with 10 assists, including 17 points in the first quarter as he repeatedly got around sophomore guard George Hill.
It’s easy to see why bettors got a little down on the Suns. Owner Robert Sarver came under fire for pinching his pennies and selling off draft picks like Luol Deng and Rajon Rondo for cash. If the Suns always seemed a player or two short of beating San Antonio, that was why. The Spurs eliminated Phoenix in 2005 and 2007 en route to the championship; Kerr took over from Mike D’Antoni as GM, and the Spurs bounced Phoenix again in 2008.
Looking back, you can see the market cresting on the Suns at roughly the same time Kerr arrived on the scene.
2008-09: 46-36 SU, 35-44-2 ATS
2007-08: 55-27 SU, 39-40-3 ATS
2006-07: 61-21 SU, 44-37-1 ATS
2005-06: 54-28 SU, 44-37-1 ATS
2004-05: 62-20 SU, 41-39-2 ATS
But then a funny thing happened. Kerr sent O’Neal packing to the Cleveland Cavaliers for cap space, retained the services of Nash and Amare Stoudemire, and surrounded them with complementary scorers like Jason Richardson (16.63 PER) and Channing Frye (15.09 PER). Nash’s backup at point guard, Goran Dragic (14.87 PER), showed marked improvement in his second NBA season. So did center Robin Lopez (17.66 PER), who is currently injured but could make an appearance later in this series. Suddenly Phoenix was the deep, talented and profitable team we see today.
The Spurs have drafted well during the stewardship of Gregg Popovich and R.C. Buford, nabbing Hill (14.70 PER) with the No. 26 pick in 2008 draft and using him effectively in their first-round victory over the favored Dallas Mavericks. But Hill was incapable of stopping the two-time MVP Nash in Game 1 and finished with a team-worst minus-22. Meanwhile, underwhelming offseason acquisitions Richard Jefferson (13.18 PER) and Antonio McDyess (12.29 PER) were combining for 11 points and a minus-19.
San Antonio has the championship rings and the reputation that goes with it. And as the Dallas Mavericks discovered in the first round, talent isn’t enough in the NBA. The betting market is still giving the Spurs the benefit of the doubt. They’re 2.5-point favorites in Wednesday’s Game 2, reflecting the influence of the zigzag theory as Popovich makes his adjustments from Game 1. For example, we’re likely to see even more small ball as San Antonio tries to keep up with the Suns’ pace. All four games they’ve played this season have gone 'over,' with Phoenix cashing in each time. Wednesday’s total has soared from 202 to 205½ as the betting odds try to keep up.
Popovich can only work with the players he’s got, and he doesn’t enjoy the same backcourt advantage in this series that he did against he Mavericks. On those occasions when Popovich went with a three-guard lineup in Game 1, Suns coach Alvin Gentry responded by assigning Richardson (6-foot-6) to guard Hill (6-foot-2). Perhaps Roger Mason (6-foot-5) will get more burn in Game 2; however, Mason appears to have lost his stroke from long range at 24.5 percent since the All-Star break. The Spurs could desperately use that floor spacing right now.
