Monster Game 1 bet coming up in the SA/PHO series

[No coincidences]

I'm taking the under 204 big.

Phoenix plays more defense than people realize, and we all know about San Antonio.

I'm guessing this game ends up in the mid-190s. I doubt if the winner even gets to 100.

[lakerboy]

I would suggest watching game 1 and then forming opinions on this series.

[uanl]

i agree with lakerboy...if im not mistaken, when these teams have met in previous years they do get to the 100s ... im thinking this series could be similar to the mavs/spurs in that if the score is in the 100s suns win and if its below that spurs win..of course we know that the suns generally don't have a good record when scoring under 100 and their best shot at getting those triple digits is at home...

[No coincidences]

I would suggest watching game 1 and then forming opinions on this series.

Side wise I agree, but I think you have to take advantage of the inflated total before Vegas adjusts. My guess is that you won't see a number much more than 200 for the rest of the series.

Look at the totals in the last four games of the PHO/POR series: 197, 183, 195 and 189. SA is every bit the defensive team that the Blazers are, and I just think Phoenix is overlooked defensively as simply a "run and shoot" team. Spurs are smart, and know they can't get into a shootout in this series. They'll try their best to dictate the tempo from jump, and as Phoenix showed in the Portland series, they can play that way if necessary.

[lakerboy]

Back numbers indicate the over is the play.

[No coincidences]

Back numbers indicate the over is the play.

I know the totals from the last three regular season games between these two teams: 220, 223 and 213. That's why I like this under even more. Why is Vegas not setting the line in the 208-210 range? Playoff basketball's a different beast, and I just think SA as a veteran squad knows it needs to slow things down and dictate an early tempo to have a chance.

[lakerboy]

I know the totals from the last three regular season games between these two teams: 220, 223 and 213. That's why I like this under even more. Why is Vegas not setting the line in the 208-210 range? Playoff basketball's a different beast, and I just think SA as a veteran squad knows it needs to slow things down and dictate an early tempo to have a chance.

Vegas wont set totals that high in fear of getting hammered by sharps. Look at the blazers series they set the same total in phoenix almost all 3 games. they cant set a 208 total that would be monetary suicide. tread lightly

[nikeboyz]

Good Playoff series coming up
Alot of bad blood

[No coincidences]

Vegas wont set totals that high in fear of getting hammered by sharps. Look at the blazers series they set the same total in phoenix almost all 3 games. they cant set a 208 total that would be monetary suicide. tread lightly

Fair enough, though I don't think a 208 total would be all that unreasonable given the regular season numbers between these two teams. Think about it -- Phoenix and San Antonio combined to average 211 points per game offensively, 201 defensively, and 209 offensively home (Suns)/road (Spurs). Add in their high totals during the regular season, and I would think a 208 for Game 1 would be a very reasonable number. IMHO, the 204 is an early tip to take the under, because you know the public will absolutely obliterate that over.

I'll keep an eye on the number between now and Monday, but as of now, I really like this and don't anticipate the game going above 200. I could be dead wrong, but I see a 100-96 type winner either way.

[Goat Milk]

The Blazers are a completely different team than the Spurs. Completely different. The Spurs don't wait, they either run with it or they get into their half court set very fast. They don't mess around and drain time off the shot clock like portland. Whatever they're doing, they get into their sets fast, usually half court. Nash is as vulnerable as Kidd defensively Parker and Hill will attack, draw the d, and kick out; this series is going to have tons of 3s.

[No coincidences]

The Blazers are a completely different team than the Spurs. Completely different. The Spurs don't wait, they either run with it or they get into their half court set very fast. They don't mess around and drain time off the shot clock like portland. Whatever they're doing, they get into their sets fast, usually half court. Nash is as vulnerable as Kidd defensively Parker and Hill will attack, draw the d, and kick out; this series is going to have tons of 3s.

Offensively, I agree.

I just don't think SA wants to get into a shootout with PHO -- same strategy they applied vs. DAL.

Spurs lost 116-104 and 112-101 to the Suns in the regular season, winning once at 113-110. If they get into those types of games with them here, they will lose this series and they know it.

[lakerboy]

The key here is that the suns cant defend the spurs kick out 3's.

[Illusivecone]

Suns have averaged 112 ppg against the Spurs this season

[No coincidences]

With complete teams, the Spurs and Mavs faced each other three times during the regular season:

112-103 Mavs
92-83 Spurs
99-94 Mavs

Every time Dallas was allowed to play at a faster pace, they won.

So what happens in the playoffs?

The games go:

194 points (SA loss)
190 (win)
184 (win)
181 (win)
184 (loss)
184 (win)

I expect SA to employ a similar strategy in this series. If you think the Suns will win here, then you should probably back the over. I, for one, think SA takes the series in 6, meaning they will dictate the tempo more and there will be more unders.

[Goat Milk]

The Suns are not the Mavs and the Spurs are not the blazers. Stop using these numbers. The difference between the Suns and the Mavs is that Nash can generate a fast break even after spurs make a shot, he doesn't need a miss to get his guys out in transition. The Suns are going to dictate pace in game 1, not the spurs.

[No coincidences]

The Suns are not the Mavs and the Spurs are not the blazers. Stop using these numbers. The difference between the Suns and the Mavs is that Nash can generate a fast break even after spurs make a shot, he doesn't need a miss to get his guys out in transition. The Suns are going to dictate pace in game 1, not the spurs.

But Kidd can't?

[Goat Milk]

But Kidd can't?

no, not after a made basket

[tealish]

Old and battered Kidd is still a better defender than Nash and it's not quite close.
This series will be fun to watch though. I'd love to see San Antonio knock out the Suns again though. That'd be fun.

[michalis]

suns will roll I believe

[S.K.M.]

I hammered every under in that Spurs/Mavs series. I kept waiting for the books to lower it and they finally did but only down to 191 from 194 and this was later in the series when the games were getting tighter and more physical. I agree with Goat though the Spurs are not the Blazers and Suns are def not the Mavs. I would still lean under though. The spurs are gonna look to be physical and beat up the Suns just like they did the Mavs. The Spurs D was suspect all year long which is why they ended up as the 7 seed but they are finally showing signs of the great defense they used to play. The pick and roll with Nash and Stoudamire cannot be stopped though and I hope Pop can figure out a way to slow it down. The spurs don't have anybody to keep up with Stoudamire...

[cankid]

suns looking solid going into this series

[No coincidences]

Down to 203.5 right now, despite 75% at S(quare)portsbook being on the over.

[No coincidences]

I'm still liking this play a lot, but I'm not crazy about the refs involved here.

[shoebox]

like the over suns dont wanna get in a HC game with spurs, push the pace is their advantage

[wrongturn]

for some reason spurs love to run with suns, so i am thinking about over

[PuckCoach]

Tim Donaghy is betting the Suns. He said if he was reffing the game, the Spurs would win.

[sweetjones55]

1H OVER is 5-1 last 6 in PHX in this matchup. All three refs favor the OVER in this game as well. I think you should at least wait til halftime and then see.