Back in the degen saddle; now a ? about hedging on a parlay

[No coincidences]

OK, so I confess: there were a lot of plays I liked on the card tonight, so I went against good judgment deposited a little into my account to get back in the game after being basically wiped out the other night.

Here were my plays:

1) Straight Wager 04/22/10 23:24 ET
Result: Wager Won 2Suns(Phoenix) 2ndHalf 42
2Blazers(Portland) 2ndHalf 52 04/22/10(23:59 ET)
Under 98

2) Parlay (2 Teams) 04/22/10 23:23 ET
Result: Wager Won 2Suns(Phoenix) 2ndHalf 42
2Blazers(Portland) 2ndHalf 52 04/22/10(23:59 ET)
2Blazers(Portland) -7 2Suns(Phoenix) 2ndHalf 42
2Blazers(Portland) 2ndHalf 52 04/22/10(23:59 ET)
Under 98

3) Parlay (2 Teams) 04/22/10 23:10 ET
Result: Wager Won 2Lakers(LA) 2ndHalf 46
2Thunder(OklahomaCity) 2ndHalf 58 04/22/10(23:40 ET)
2Thunder(OklahomaCity) -4 (-105) 2Lakers(LA) 2ndHalf 46
2Thunder(OklahomaCity) 2ndHalf 58 04/22/10(23:40 ET)
Over 97

4) Straight Wager 04/22/10 13:37 ET
Result: Wager Won Lakers(LA) 96
Thunder(OklahomaCity) 101 04/22/10(21:50 ET)
Thunder(OklahomaCity) -2.5 (-130)
Bought 1.0 point(s)

5) Straight Wager 04/22/10 13:37 ET
Result: Wager Won Lakers(LA) 96
Thunder(OklahomaCity) 101 04/22/10(21:50 ET)
Thunder(OklahomaCity) -165

6) Straight Wager 04/22/10 13:37 ET
Result: Wager Won Lakers(LA) 96
Thunder(OklahomaCity) 101 04/22/10(21:50 ET)
Over 191.5
I also took OKC first half, which lost.

Now of course, I'm , even though I had to play much smaller because I totally went in the tank with 2nd half over LAL/OKC on Tuesday. Baby steps, though.

So here's my question:

I also strung a little 6-team parlay together with 35:1 odds. Had two baseball games (hit), OKC ML and OKC/LAL over. So I'm 4-for-4 at this point. The last two plays are Utah ML and Utah/Denver over on Friday night. How do I hedge? I'm really liking the Jazz and the over here, but if I can figure out a way to assure myself of at least a little cash, I will. Any thoughts would be greatly appreciated.

Memorable night for the SBR family, everyone!

[sweetjones55]

It's really hard to hedge when you have two games left in the parlay and they are both on the same team. I think you have no choice but to let it ride.

I have to admit thought I really do not think the OVER is the right call. Usually in a playoff series, when the first two games go over, the third game goes under.

[sweetjones55]

Acutally there is a way to hedge this game. Say Utah is up 20 tomorrow at half and the total is right on pace. You can take the 2H under for half the parlay and gurantee yourself winnings if you don't think that Utah will blow a big lead. 2H bets is for sure the only way you can hedge though.

[No coincidences]

2H bets is for sure the only way you can hedge though.

That's kind of what I'm thinking. I just hope the game gives me a chance to do so -- I have a feeling an ugly middle might be on the way, though.

[AmpleGamble]

Ya, about all you can do right now is hope the Jazz come out hot or the O/U is really favoring one side or the other. And as mentioned before, hopefully find a way to hedge it at half to at least guarantee yourself a little profit. I'll be cheerin for ya, good luck!

[No coincidences]

Ya, about all you can do right now is hope the Jazz come out hot or the O/U is really favoring one side or the other. And as mentioned before, hopefully find a way to hedge it at half to at least guarantee yourself a little profit. I'll be cheerin for ya, good luck!

Thanks. I suppose what I need is for one of the results to be obvious (either Utah ML or the over) so that I can hedge on the other. If it's 55-53 at half, I'm probably screwed and will just have to let it ride.

[sweetjones55]

Let's not forget No coincidences that Utah could win the 1H 68-53 and you could be looking sweet on both. It seems like you may be reverse-jynxing your parlay by creating this thread and talking about hedging.

[OmgUrMom]

three two team parlays would do it.

Denver ML- Under on game
Denver ML- Over on game
Utah ML- Under on game

That would do it and you could easily guarantee yourself a profit, i still don't suggest it since its negative ev.

[No coincidences]

Let's not forget No coincidences that Utah could win the 1H 68-53 and you could be looking sweet on both. It seems like you may be reverse-jynxing your parlay by creating this thread and talking about hedging.

If Utah's up 68-53 at half, I'll be . Then if Denver comes back or the over doesn't hit, that's life.

I suppose I could make a 2nd half bet and then a 4th Q bet if necessary. I do agree, though, that waiting until halftime is probably the only way to go.

[No coincidences]

OK, here's what I think I'm going to do (again, any feedback would be greatly appreciated):

It's a $10 parlay to win almost $350 hinging on Utah ML and over 216 tonight.

Before the game, I'm going to play a Denver +3/under parlay at $50 to win $130. That will cover a decent amount of the parlay amount in case it doesn't hit, and if it does, I'm still gaining $300 off of $10.

Then, I make another play at half based on what's happening in the game only if I have to (the only bases not covered at this point would be Utah/under and Denver/over).

I know some would just let it ride, and I know there are probably ways I could really screw myself here, but I feel like I have to do something to ensure a profit.

[No coincidences]

I hedged Utah and over with Denver and under (two-team parlay to cover about 35% of the original parlay).

Anyone want to guess what's going to happen? I'm saying Denver and over.

[No coincidences]

Worst nightmare so far. Denver's up big and the over's looking great.

Unbelievable.

[No coincidences]

Over's not going to hit and I have no idea who's going to win the game -- what do I do now?

[No coincidences]

Go with Utah and under for a second hedge? I could get caught on an ugly middle with the total there.

I think I'll just pray that one or the other hits. This sucks.

[No coincidences]

Utah and under. Wow.

I go from having a chance to win a 35:1 parlay, to actually losing money by trying to hedge.

Idiot.

[hhsilver]

When you think about hedging to "guarantee profit", you should also think about all the money lost on parlays that lost before you had a chance to hedge.

In short, don't hedge if you have played or will play other parlays. You need the possible big payoff to help make up for all the ones that lose before there is even a possibility of hedging.

[No coincidences]

Goddam you, Denver.

[No coincidences]

Only I could turn this opportunity into a loser.

From 35:1 ($10 to win $350) to down $50.