[mundane]

ok i'll start this tracking again. hopefully u guys also keep track coz sometimes im not available to do so. download the attached excel file below. :P

Last Season's Record : 17-7 70.83%

here are the 'rules' again:
The final number must be 10 or greater for a PLAY!
If the number is less than or equal to -1, then you play the other team ATS.
If the spread is 10 or greater , DO NOT PLAY!
Don't play if selected team played the night before. (No back to back games)
Don't play if one or more starters are OUT. Allow one week for return starters.
Don't play 1st 20 games of the season or 1st 3 games after all star break.

for references:
http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/nba-basket...-tracking.html
http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/nba-basket...heet-beta.html
http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/nba-basket...-nba-math.html

---

12/07 Denver Nuggets was a PLAY!



YTD: 1-0

[bustabook]

didn't you have another thread with this same system? i remember seeing something pretty recently about a 70% system.

good stuff though, thanks.

[mundane]

yeah right there on the references!

[HoulihansTX]

Lets get this thing going bro.

[lakerboy]

24 games last year. good luck. i think i can do that on my own

[bustabook]

lol thanks mundane... ::feels stupid::

[mundane]

12/08 NO PLAYS as far as i can tell. correct me if im wrong though!

[corona]

i believe chicago would be a play, but they've only played 18 games. and i guess there could be an argument that TT is a starter.

[mundane]

if a supposed starter has been out for a week, i'd say the team is good to go!
i believe it reciprocates this rule ~ Don't play if one or more starters are OUT. Allow one week for return starters.

[pelos879]

Chicago: Play or no play? Let's try to keep the tracking as pro as possible. Already 1-0 with Denver winning last night correct?

[ngates815]

i believe chicago would be a play, but they've only played 18 games. and i guess there could be an argument that TT is a starter.

Technically Yes they'd be a play. But there could be the argument, that the bulls aren't that good and I think Brook Lopez goes off huge against them tonight.

[SpreadSniper]

Now my next endeavor - try to understand wtf these spread sheets mean and what exactly I'm looking at.

[corona]

Chicago: Play or no play? Let's try to keep the tracking as pro as possible. Already 1-0 with Denver winning last night correct?

chicago's a no play under the current filters.

Technically Yes they'd be a play. But there could be the argument, that the bulls aren't that good and I think Brook Lopez goes off huge against them tonight.

this isn't an analyze the players to try to win 70% thread.
its a pretty simple mathematical formula that will give us plays.

[azn1234]

How about Phoenix Sun? The final number is -2.9

[corona]

How about Phoenix Sun? The final number is -2.9

714 - 667 = 47 (better win percentage [phoenix] minus worse win percentage [dallas])

47 / 20 = 2.35

2.35 - 3 = -0.65(subtract/add 3 based on where the better win % team is playing...in this case its on the road, so subtract 3)

-0.65 + 4.5 = 3.85 (add/subtract whatever the spread is)

final number i get is 3.85

[Meestermike]

There is only 1 play ~ New Orleans -3 tonite.

[666]

I think New Orleans is no play

[corona]

not a play guys.

Don't play if selected team played the night before. (No back to back games)

new orleans played sacramento on tuesday night. i think last season it was tracked with no filters, and hit around 50%.

atlanta would be a play at -9.5. but the line's -10.5
i think this system goes off opening lines too? can anyone confirm that?

[JGuer04]

Hey man not sure bout this system you got but if your numbers are true i say what the hell im down to give it a shot but i was just wondering have you seen anything about one for other sports like nfl or ncaab or is the nba the only one you know

[pelos879]

What lines are you supposed to use in the equation? Opening? Closing? Any ideas?

[losturmarbles]

What lines are you supposed to use in the equation? Opening? Closing? Any ideas?

whatever line your betting. obviously any side could be a play if the spread moves to a certain number. if atl reaches -9.5, i guess it's a play? (i haven't done any of tonight's numbers.)

probably the best way is to figure out tomorrow's games tonight, and figure out what the spread needs to be for each eligible team in order to be a play. and then check the openers, and if any of the teams have that spread or better, bet the opener. if your number is close, wait for the line to move in your favor.

[Meestermike]

I think New Orleans is no play

Damnlit I forgot that filter

[koby25]

Good luck

[corona]

it looks like the celtics will be a play tomorrow (thursday)

they're healthy, rested, have played 20 games....and i get a final number of 11.6. that means its a play up to and including boston -9.

[mundane]

thanks corona! yeah, no play tonight!

[mundane]

12/10 ~ 1 PLAY Boston -7.5 (up to -9)



any other inquiries about this system, kindly go to the reference links.
fyi, this system does not produce a lot of plays. proceed and bet at ur own risk!

[PacmanJr_00]

Appreciate the post. I got the same play as well but had to lock in -8 as the line seems to be moving up quickly.

[netinfo]

Man, it's never easy winning these bets. 5 minutes to go, common Celtics!!!

I bought a point today, so I'll be happy if the Celts win by 7.

netinfo

[mundane]

Ytd ~ 1-1

[corona]

so here's a situation i've been wondering about..

houston's a play tomorrow at -3 up to -4. they pass all the filters but the 'health' one, since yao/tmac are out.

however...they're 12-9 record is entirely without yao/tmac, and thus for the most part reflects the teams ability. because of that, do we call it a play? could we not have played on washington all of last year because arenas was out? any portland game this season because oden is out? any houston game this season because they'll be without yao for much longer?

i also think charlotte's a play at +8 or more.

[mundane]

if a supposed starter has been out for a week, i'd say the team is good to go!
i believe it reciprocates this rule ~ Don't play if one or more starters are OUT. Allow one week for return starters.

yes! if they've been out for a week or at least 3 games, teams are good to go!

[pelos879]

So Houston is an official play.

I got Charlotte as a no play. Final number I got is 1.18

[PacmanJr_00]

yeah, bos really fell apart in the 2nd half. i covered my play in the 2ndq as bos rawks that quarter consistently.

[corona]

So Houston is an official play.

I got Charlotte as a no play. Final number I got is 1.18

526 - 450 = 76

76/20 = 3.8

3.8 + 3 (for hca) = 6.8

6.8 - 7.5 (spread) = -0.7

-1.2 if the spread is -8, making it a play on charlotte, i believe.

[corona]

good win tonight.

looks like boston's a play at -9.5 tomorrow (or better, if you can get it)