Lakerboy NBA thread for rest of Season until playoffs end

lakerboy · 02-22-10, 11:16 AM

if you dont like it take the under now.

No coincidences · 02-22-10, 11:29 AM

It's down to 196 at the moment. Not sure what to do -- I'll probably just pass. Don't like playing totals in the mid- to high-190's anyway.

GL though, LB.

darkenergy · 02-22-10, 11:30 AM

Originally posted by bringdownthehous

damnn I got it at 198 when you told everyone to pound the over last night..I put 5 Units on it too..I figure maybe Ill ride it out..but everything points to the under

Originally posted by lakerboy

if you dont like it take the under now.

He originally had 198, and now the line 196....if he take under 196 and the final score come out 197, he gonna get f*ck both ways

.

lyon804 · 02-22-10, 11:33 AM

This is not a hard decision people... If you are uncomfortable in your bet and the line has moved against buy points and play the otherside and get out.. Yes you will lose high juice, but it's worth your piece of mind and could keep you from losing more money if that's how you feel. Don't get your pannies in a wad folks the line could move back before gametime.

No coincidences · 02-22-10, 11:33 AM

Originally posted by lakerboy

if you dont like it take the under now.

That's a good idea if people are skittish, because if it dips to 193-194, they'll have to worry about the no man's land where they'd be burned twice (195-197). Remote possibility, but it could happen. The longer they wait and the more it drops, the bigger that nightmarish double-loser spot gets.

No coincidences · 02-22-10, 11:35 AM

Originally posted by lyon804

This is not a hard decision people... If you are uncomfortable in your bet and the line has moved against buy points and play the otherside and get out.. Yes you will lose high juice, but it's worth your piece of mind and could keep you from losing more money if that's how you feel. Don't get your pannies in a wad folks the line could move back before gametime.

Or just bet over your initial bet enough to cover the juice.

I'm just thinking out loud if people truly aren't convinced LB's play is the one. I, for one, would stick with it if you've got it, and maybe even add a little more to it at 196 or whatever. That's just me, though.

sprn · 02-22-10, 11:36 AM

I'll keep an eye on the line during the day and see which way it moves.

jolmscheid · 02-22-10, 11:38 AM

I got in on the over...If LakerBoy is confident on this one, then I'm going with it. Also, I have been thinking about wagering on games where the line has moved by 4 or more points from when it opened and betting against the team that the line is moving for. Like if the Bucks are at -3 when the line opened and before gametime they are at +1 or +2 or something, I would take the Bucks because most of the public is on the other side. And more often than not we want to be on the side that the public is not betting on right?

cecbo · 02-22-10, 11:47 AM

Not necessarily.

maseda17 · 02-22-10, 11:49 AM

lol wow

ballaholic · 02-22-10, 12:02 PM

Hey LB the Utah game, the line drop down to 196. What u think now.

MidgetTossers · 02-22-10, 01:07 PM

my local has suspended my account and i dont know why...got some work to do...fukk!!

kingofgamble · 02-22-10, 01:10 PM

thanks for MINE yesterday LB

Lakers714 · 02-22-10, 01:48 PM

My local book opened at 196 and now it's at 197. Gonna lock mine in now. What total are you guys getting from your books?

t-wizzle · 02-22-10, 01:52 PM

LB, can you explain why you think the o/u is now lower than what it opened at? There isn't really a big discrepancy in who the public is on and I kinda thought it was a general rule of thumb that when two teams play on back to back nights (especially after an OT game), the next game will generally be higher-scoring.

I know you've had this one targeted, but wouldn't the total dropping kind of point to vegas wanting us to take the over?

lakerboy · 02-22-10, 02:13 PM

Like i said before if you dont like the bet do what lyon said. The total only dropped cause the utah game went to ot. If you look at it, it was headed upwards then it dropped right after the jazz game ended. Im sticking with my play- whether i got a bad # or a good #. The play is FINAL. If i lose i lose.

Lakers714 · 02-22-10, 02:21 PM

You guys already forgot about the 25X play from LB?I think he locked his in at around Over 203. I got mine at 206.5 from my local book. Guys, relax and make the play or stay away. It's not that hard.

t-wizzle · 02-22-10, 02:24 PM

I'm not criticizing the play, I agree with it. I was just interested to see what you thought of the total dropping slightly.

lakerboy · 02-22-10, 02:29 PM

Originally posted by t-wizzle

I'm not criticizing the play, I agree with it. I was just interested to see what you thought of the total dropping slightly.

No problem and i mentioned why it dropped. It has also come back up to 197 from 196. Its either going to sail over or go way under. Anyways i am looking at other games cause it looks like this play is a loss right.

HoulihansTX · 02-22-10, 02:51 PM

When was an O/U moving a point and a half significant?

southpaw74 · 02-22-10, 02:52 PM

GL LB!! I'm already in with over 197.5 and again at 196. whatever happens happens

I hate to say it but I like the knicks as well.

WillC · 02-22-10, 02:59 PM

These are the games Bucks must win if they want to make the playoffs. They will hustle their asses off. Expect a tight one

lean on Milwaukee

Gopi-1 · 02-22-10, 03:00 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

No problem and i mentioned why it dropped. It has also come back up to 197 from 196. Its either going to sail over or go way under. Anyways i am looking at other games cause it looks like this play is a loss right.

Are you giving up on this play this early LB? FWIW, 9 out of 12 times the OVER has hit when the total line is set at 199 or lower at the Energy Solutions Arena. We've witnessed a point or half a point movement many, many times, it didn't mean diddly squat at the end of the day. The books are just trying to balance their books...

hels · 02-22-10, 03:25 PM

I haven't even looked at this game... 6:21 am here and I just woke up and clicked on the thread. Here's what I have read so far:
a) LB has suggested a LEAN not an official play
b) everyone and their mother has been saying LB this, line movement that
c) no one is posting any facts/criteria about why the pick is good/bad (except Gopi-1 in the last post)
d) people are already criticizing LB and I can't for the life of me understand why

anyways, let's start posting some info as to why this game should be over/under. Honestly, just reading all this skepticism on playing the Over in this thread leads me to believe that's what the public is thinking as well. It would be nice to see someone post the numbers/percentages of public on the O/U. It wouldn't surprise me that the majority are on the Under.

Let's work together and cap this game to the best of our ability!!!

southpaw74 · 02-22-10, 03:26 PM

It's just LB's reverse jynx

no worries brothers

mlb · 02-22-10, 03:31 PM

Originally posted by hels

a) LB has suggested a LEAN not an official play

not like it matters .. but it wasn't a lean ... he placed a 10x on it last night before the Utah game ended ... FYI

bringdownthehous · 02-22-10, 03:34 PM

Im on Over 198 and Im leaving it..Im still pretty confident in the # and LBs lean...the only reason why I posted and asked was because I was a little skeptic about the line movement..I dont think people were really criticizing him, just curious..we wouldnt be on LBs thread if we didn't want his input..but yeahh I am still confident in the play because the way I see it

Utah goes to overtime
Atlanta plays a stressful game away from home, tough loss..whatever

The way I see it..their NBA players - and if their tired it will lead to a lack of defense not a lack of offense..I mean please some of these players dont play defense as it is..and if their tired it will only lead to less defense...they will never stop scoring, but they will stop defending..takes more effort to defend than to score

sooner13 · 02-22-10, 03:46 PM

Originally posted by hels

I haven't even looked at this game... 6:21 am here and I just woke up and clicked on the thread. Here's what I have read so far:
a) LB has suggested a LEAN not an official play
b) everyone and their mother has been saying LB this, line movement that
c) no one is posting any facts/criteria about why the pick is good/bad (except Gopi-1 in the last post)
d) people are already criticizing LB and I can't for the life of me understand why

anyways, let's start posting some info as to why this game should be over/under. Honestly, just reading all this skepticism on playing the Over in this thread leads me to believe that's what the public is thinking as well. It would be nice to see someone post the numbers/percentages of public on the O/U. It wouldn't surprise me that the majority are on the Under.

Let's work together and cap this game to the best of our ability!!!

Just a few things to consider. The reasons why the public is favoring the under.
Atlanta's 5 out of last 6 games vs. Utah went UNDER
5 out of 5 on the road against Utah went UNDER
Utah's last 5 out of 5 games went UNDER

Those are some of the obvious reason's. The public is riding the streaks and numbers but it's hard to say if they're right on this one. The public is only hitting at 50% when moving the total in Utah games and they both average 101 a game and allow 97...it's a no play for me.

Gopi-1 · 02-22-10, 03:47 PM

Originally posted by bringdownthehous

Im on Over 198 and Im leaving it..Im still pretty confident in the # and LBs lean...the only reason why I posted and asked was because I was a little skeptic about the line movement..I dont think people were really criticizing him, just curious..we wouldnt be on LBs thread if we didn't want his input..but yeahh I am still confident in the play because the way I see it

Utah goes to overtime
Atlanta plays a stressful game away from home, tough loss..whatever

The way I see it..their NBA players - and if their tired it will lead to a lack of defense not a lack of offense..I mean please some of these players dont play defense as it is..and if their tired it will only lead to less defense...they will never stop scoring, but they will stop defending..takes more effort to defend than to score

What he said...

mlb · 02-22-10, 03:50 PM

Originally posted by Gopi-1

What he said...

you'd think this... but don't think Vegas knows every possible angle as well .. either way good luck

fly fisher · 02-22-10, 04:15 PM

Kirilenko is out for this game and he is one of the better defenders on the team, yes they get some fast breaks from his defense but without him I think both teams score a litle more. Sorry don't have any data to back up my claim, just a utah guy who has seen this team play a lot of games on local TV. Jazz aren't slowing down, they had a bad run after the allstar break last year, so I think there is real emphasis in not letting that happen this year. Jazz are still roling so I think riding them to the over is a good bet. And at the current 197, I think it is okay, although I have no real analysis I don't see that Jazz coming home and shooting under 40% against atlanta. I am not an Okur fan, but he scores threes and lets who ever he is defending either go to the line or beat him. I like the over and going for it at 197. If I lose then oh well I would never blame LB, if LB changes his mind and went under, and I lost the over then I would say damn I should have followed LB, but still sticking with the over play.

fly fisher · 02-22-10, 04:18 PM

it is in, 196.5 on the over. Now to sit and wait and see what happens.

colts · 02-22-10, 04:27 PM

Fellow minions here is a stat that supports the over - ATL is 16-6 over off an under.

hels · 02-22-10, 04:31 PM

I didn't see the 10x play so I apologize for saying it was a lean. All I know is that on LB's big plays he hits more than misses.

Something that doesn't make much sense is why the total began at 198. As was mentioned by sooner13 the Under is the trend so one would expect something more like 192 or 194. 198 though? Seems too high. Usually when a line looks too high, you close your eyes, bet the Over and the whole game you think you made the wrong play and somehow in the end it works out and you feel you got lucky.

One quick question LB. I've never played with a bookie before. I'm just wondering what the juice they offer is. Are all plays -1.10 or something like that? Or does he adjust the lines with time? Also, how do you get the lines (online, email, text)?

anthonyc023 · 02-22-10, 04:38 PM

okur is out tonight and atlanta hasnt won in utah since number 21 was playing for them in 1993