Den @ Port (Lets Cap This Game)

[Dexter]

up in the air on this game, but im a degenerate on the holidays and wanna make a play. lets collectively cap the shit outta this game:

-the last 3 games den @ port have resulted in final scores of 191, 180, 193. all unders and well under the total today of 196. factor in the many missing offensive weapons tonight, and this seems like the play to me. the public bet % is about 50/50 right now per vegasinsider and the total has moved .5 point from 195.5. basically doing what it should.

-the under is 9-6 in denver road games this year
-the under is 9-5 in port home games

im up in the air on the side....roy is doubtful and oden/pryzbilla are done for the year. though i feel the home court advantage could negate the injuries and taking the home dog at +3 is a slight lean i have - esp if billups is a dnp. i preach not to fade a team cause a star player is out, but billups means a ton to denver.

thinking 2x under, 1x port

thoughts?

[Dexter]

as i type this i see a 198 with one of my locals.....moving with The Greek and 5 dimes who are up to 197.5

[williams22]

No way I can take Portland tonight. As much as Billups matters to the Nuggets, Roy matters more to Portland and he may be out tonight. Also, Portland has no depth anywhere right now and they are going to be very small and weak inside which means a field day for the Nuggets. I'd take the Nuggets up to about -5 here.

[laxdjock]

Rotoworld has Roy playing: Brandon Roy, who missed his last game with a shoulder injury, is expected to start against the Nugget on Christmas night.Roy sounds like he's good to go, but the real intrigue will be seeing if Jerryd Bayless can play well with Roy healthy.

[Dexter]

-port is 7-3 ats as home dogs the last 3 years.
-port is 9-2 ats the last 3 years when the total was between 195-200

[roflc0pter]

Waiting on the status of Roy... before I play Den -2.5

[Dexter]

Rotoworld has Roy playing: Brandon Roy, who missed his last game with a shoulder injury, is expected to start against the Nugget on Christmas night.Roy sounds like he's good to go, but the real intrigue will be seeing if Jerryd Bayless can play well with Roy healthy.

this is whats moving the line....den down to 2.5 and up to 198.

Booked:

(1x) blazers +2.5

[laxdjock]

-port is 7-3 ats as home dogs the last 3 years.
-port is 9-2 ats the last 3 years when the total was between 195-200

With less injuries.

[Dexter]

gonna wait on this total to go up more and may hit the under for 3x..

[Dexter]

With less injuries.

injuries are overrrated in the nba. look at what portlands done their last 3. look at boston today etc...

and whos to say in those other games for portland that they didnt have sig injuries then. regardless, looks like roys playing and billups still a ?

[bsimp3021]

roy is playing
i capped portland as a SLIGHT favorite in this one so im gonna take em +2.5

[Leto]

Blazers line is now +1 at 5dimes. Decided to play +3.5 (bought a point) for a unit at Legends before the line moves there.

[baa269]

Leaning port may just tease waiting to see if clips look good or not this is gonna be a gametime play .. lean port +3. If clips cover all port needs is to and then its a dog day

[roflc0pter]

Roy is playing?

No play for me then

[hedgejob]

Roy playing but what about Billups?

[NYSportsGuy210]

Roy is playing tonight that is definite. Not sure about Billups. Even so, these two teams met AT PORTLAND back early this year fully healthy and Denver still won 97-94.

May take the UNDER here.....

[Leto]

Billups is playing tonight, word just went out minutes ago.

[POTVINSUX]

Portland is 5-0-1 ATS in its last 6

Portland is 5-1 SU in its last 6

Portland is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 at home

The total has gone over in 6 of Portlands last 9

With Roy looking like he will get the nod and Chauncey still questionable I'll take a shot with the home dog in this one and hope that all the dogs on the board today pick up the W.(except LAC) Blazers +3 -115 (2u.), Blazers ML +125 (1u.)

[Leto]

Blazers line now up to +3 at 5dimes, damn.

[Dexter]

Billups is playing tonight, word just went out minutes ago.

source..link?

[Leto]

source..link?

http://twitter.com/nuggetsnews/status/7048832829

[TomDwan]

I got this game at pretty much even......I may go with the over....

[Leto]

Blazers line at 5dimes going wild, now down to +1.5 (was up to +3 minutes ago).

[Gio21]

Denver! Nene has a big game blazers have no bigs!!!

[williams22]

The Blazers are without Oden and Pryzbilla, Denver is going to attack the rim all night long.

[POTVINSUX]

Bodog just scratched the ML's for this one, I've always wondered what that means...just adjusting?

[laxdjock]

I'm guessing big money down on one side, and they want to think about it for a second?

[Ace_of_Spades]

Over and Denver

[Gio21]

maybe big money on the favorite

[W0lfy]

Is that twitter report accurate? I mean who is that?

[DrStale]

Throwin my SBR Point Gift on Blazers ML, will give me a reason to watch it at the bar.

[Leto]

Is that twitter report accurate? I mean who is that?

Benjamin Hochman, Nuggets reporter for the Denver Post.

[lcf]

Im a little bit crazy... Here are my plays.

Basketball NBA - Portland Trail Blazers Team Total U 97½ -115 for Game
Basketball NBA - Denver Nuggets -1½ -115 for 1st Half
Basketball NBA - Denver Nuggets -1 -115 for 1st Quarter

[TheLock]

I just hammered UNDER 198.5 (TheGreek)

[Dexter]

Over and Denver

bbanks