Who wants my NBA plays?

[Goat Milk]

Okay Goat, you've written up and talked alot about game 1/the series. You made a thread stating that Boston loses game 1. What's your opinion on the LA-5.5?

You can lay everything on the table but in the end it means nothing if you aren't making the plays.

I've already made my play. Why are you asking me when there are the three kings of nba paco LB and Shoebox? Remember that you have to play the odds so that if Paco and LB are both on Celtics there is a 78% chance that celtics will cover the 5.5. Isn't that right?

[lakerboy]

Why do you need his prediction?
His analysis for the most part is on point. I agree with almost all of it. With that anaylsis, you can your own picks. Goat doesn't suscribe to the "post a play -> tail -> wash,rinse,repeat" idea.

Exactly either do i. I make my own picks.

[lakerboy]

I've already made my play. Why are you asking me when there are the three kings of nba paco LB and Shoebox? Remember that you have to play the odds so that if Paco and LB are both on Celtics there is a 78% chance that celtics will cover the 5.5. Isn't that right?

Goat when did i call myself a king of the NBA? You keep going on about me over and over . Care to elaborate.

[Goat Milk]

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basketball-handicapping/508173-boston-gonna-lose-game-1-a-p2.html

Hels should I play the odds, because LB might be on Lakers and I just saw Paco is but SHoebox is on Boston w the spread for 30 units!

What is it that I should do? I'm so lost. Does the 30 unit bet by Shoe make LB and Paco's bets look like worse plays? So it evens out to 50-50 at that point?

[hels]

I was unaware you had made a play, I musta missed it. I know those 3 guys are all on LA-5 or -5.5 but paco made his play last night after taking a couple brutal beatings in the mlb. It was snap and thrown out there all too easily.... not saying he hadn't thought about it and analyzed beforehand but it was a strange time to announce it as he was pissed off.

My thinking on everything with capping is critical. It's like with LB this year, if you played all of his 1 or 2 unit plays you would have broken even. If you tailed him on his 5 unit + plays only you would have banked bigtime. If you played all of his plays not looking at how many units he put on it and put 1 unit on them all you would have been up but not anywhere near his +150unit season.

You wrote this last night Goat, what happened?

Just to let all you guys know my boy Shoebox is the best capper on SBR and he is large on the Celtics tomorrow probably 30-35 units on Celtics +6.

Just wanted to let you guys know that shoe doesn't lose bets like this

[lakerboy]

Goat i need an answer.

[Goat Milk]

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basketball-handicapping/508173-boston-gonna-lose-game-1-a.html

pg 2. i never said you said that lb. you'll figure it out

[shari91]

I was unaware you had made a play, I musta missed it. I know those 3 guys are all on LA-5 or -5.5 but paco made his play last night after taking a couple brutal beatings in the mlb. It was snap and thrown out there all too easily.... not saying he hadn't thought about it and analyzed beforehand but it was a strange time to announce it as he was pissed off. My thinking on everything with capping is critical. It's like with LB this year, if you played all of his 1 or 2 unit plays you would have broken even. If you tailed him on his 5 unit + plays only you would have banked bigtime. If you played all of his plays not looking at how many units he put on it and put 1 unit on them all you would have been up but not anywhere near his +150unit season. You wrote this last night Goat, what happened? Just to let all you guys know my boy Shoebox is the best capper on SBR and he is large on the Celtics tomorrow probably 30-35 units on Celtics +6. Just wanted to let you guys know that shoe doesn't lose bets like this

hels, Goat is fvkking around by saying that. He's superstitious and doesn't want everyone on the forum on LA because he is. Just like his big play in his own thread states. As does the majority of his posts if you read them word for word.

Enough with the pissing match guys. Now just tell me who's going to win

[hels]

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basket...me-1-a-p2.html

Hels should I play the odds, because LB might be on Lakers and I just saw Paco is but SHoebox is on Boston w the spread for 30 units!

What is it that I should do? I'm so lost. Does the 30 unit bet by Shoe make LB and Paco's bets look like worse plays? So it evens out to 50-50 at that point?

Goat, you gotta realize as I just said that I look at everything critically. At the moment I am personally leaning Celts+6 but that is just a lean. I respect Shoe's play but I think paco's play wasn't as well thought through as many of his plays are. LB's pick will influence based upon his unit size.

As well, I'm going to keep checking line movements, team updates etc. etc. and most likely won't make a play until about 5 minutes before tipoff.

Oh and if ThaDiesel makes a play that will influence as well

[hels]

hels, Goat is fvkking around by saying that. He's superstitious and doesn't want everyone on the forum on LA because he is. Just like his big play in his own thread states. As does the majority of his posts if you read them word for word.

Enough with the pissing match guys. Now just tell me who's going to win

Just having some fun Shari

How's the weather in Melbs??? You wouldn't believe how great it is up in Northern Ontario these past couple weeks..... we don't normally even get this weather in July!!

[shari91]

Just having some fun Shari How's the weather in Melbs??? You wouldn't believe how great it is up in Northern Ontario these past couple weeks..... we don't normally even get this weather in July!!

Freezing my ass off and I've just stayed up til 7am sweating out a bloody ball game. Off to bed for a few minutes until my son wakes up for a feed. Happy to hear the weather is great there - enjoy it! You know it won't last.

[AmpleGamble]

I've already made my play. Why are you asking me when there are the three kings of nba paco LB and Shoebox? Remember that you have to play the odds so that if Paco and LB are both on Celtics there is a 78% chance that celtics will cover the 5.5. Isn't that right?

Goat you are worse than a 6 year old child sometimes. Why do you continue to rave and rave about your basketball knowledge and make knowledgeable and educated posts if you don't want anyone asking for your opinion? It's pretty obvious that people are going to be asking you for your picks when you lay out posts/threads like you do- So why when somebody does do you resort to your defensive "I hate everybody" self; calling out the likes of Paco, LB, and Shoe?

[lakerfan420]

Goat you say shoe and paco are on Boston but last I read paco was on the lakers for his SCS 15x

[Goat Milk]

Goat you are worse than a 6 year old child sometimes. Why do you continue to rave and rave about your basketball knowledge and make knowledgeable and educated posts if you don't want anyone asking for your opinion? It's pretty obvious that people are going to be asking you for your picks when you lay out posts/threads like you do- So why when somebody does do you resort to your defensive "I hate everybody" self; calling out the likes of Paco, LB, and Shoe?

I didn't call out LB, Paco, and Shoe. Me and Hels are just continuing are discussion from before. This has nothing to do with you unless you have been following our discussion in the other threads.

[danller]

If LB thinks Lakers will end this series in 5, he got to be on Lakers tonight I guess

[anjaru]

-5.5 points is a lot for a finals game IMO. If these were the Celtics of January, I would be all over the Lakers. But they annihilated a very, VERY good Orlando team and have been unstoppable. They are just a different team now compared to the last time they played the Lakers. But I still think the Lakers win by 3, with Pierce missing a last second 3 to tie. 4 games left till we blow all our NBA winnings on MLB this summer, let's do this!

[AmpleGamble]

I didn't call out LB, Paco, and Shoe. Me and Hels are just continuing are discussion from before. This has nothing to do with you unless you have been following our discussion in the other threads.

I guess I may have used the phrase "call out" inappropriately, but that wasn't really the point of my post. I just meant that it seems like you are always responding to those that seek your advice on making a pick with statements such as: "Paco, LB, and Shoe are the basketball kings," "Why are you asking me, I don't know anything about basketball."

[lakerboy]

Lakers v Celtics breakdown

Game 1- Lakers win -98-87
Game 2- Lakers win -91-88
Game 3- Celtics win -101-88
Game 4- Lakers win -90-88
Game 5- Celtics win -92-86
Game 6- Lakers win -94-87

Lakers win series 4-2. Kobe finals MVP.

Differences from 2008 finals.

Artest better than Ariza
Garnett not as good as he was
Rondo better than he was
Biggest adv that Boston had in 2008 was Powe(big game 2)Brown and Posey. They were replaced with T Allen and Sheed and Baby(full time now).
Lakers have the exp under the belt now and will be alot less nervous and wont start on the road.


For me the biggest issue in this series that Boston will not be able to overcome and that has been there biggest weakness all year long is there inability to rebound the basketball. They are a terrible rebounding team and the Lakers are a great rebounding team. Second chance points will kill the celtics this time.

The other key adv that the Lakers have is there ability to shut down 3 pt shooting. Bos was on fire from 3 pt land in 2008 finals but LA has geared there defense to defend 3 pt shots and Bostons offense isnt good enough if they arent hitting 3 pt shots.

Bos has some very physical players and will present some issues for the Lakers in the paint but those players are slow and the Lakers will get the rebounds and move the ball upcourt and push the pace on Boston.

Thats my very simple analysis of this series. I am not an expert just someone who states his opinion.

[og4667]

I have the Lakers in 6 as well. Boston doesn't seem to have the same rebounding woes during the playoffs that they did during the reg season but I haven't compared the stats so can't say exactly. I got the Lakers -1.5 1Q and 5.5 for the game, good luck guys.

[Goat Milk]

Lakers v Celtics breakdown

For me the biggest issue in this series that Boston will not be able to overcome and that has been there biggest weakness all year long is there inability to rebound the basketball. They are a terrible rebounding team and the Lakers are a great rebounding team. Second chance points will kill the celtics this time.
[/B]

I like this part

[vitalogist]

GL, Lakerboy, see you at halftime!

[DEGENR8]

Any thoughts on over under guys?

[chimp]

Lakerboy going with the lakers

[anjaru]

Under is the way to go it keeps dropping, down to 191 now.

[TNT28]

Nope Laker fans, Boston will do you in again. I'm not a fan of either, Rockets all the way baby. One thing for certain tho...it's going to be a great Finals.

[unpredictable]

Tough one to call but I will be on Lakers -1.5 1st quarter which is in my opinion is the best bet for tonight. good luck with your plays guys!!!

[Raadmand]

At some point the value will be gone on the under.

Over 192,5 at betfair i can get for 2.18.

My percentages: 55% Under / 45% Over

actually it's only 1% keeping me from booking a valuebet at the over.

But will be checking lines the most of the night (europe) until game starts.

But my heads just SPINS about this game.

Best of luck !

[sweetjones55]

Lakers v Celtics breakdown

Game 1- Lakers win -98-87
Game 2- Lakers win -91-88
Game 3- Celtics win -101-88
Game 4- Lakers win -90-88
Game 5- Celtics win -92-86
Game 6- Lakers win -94-87

Lakers win series 4-2. Kobe finals MVP.

Differences from 2008 finals.

Artest better than Ariza
Garnett not as good as he was
Rondo better than he was
Biggest adv that Boston had in 2008 was Powe(big game 2)Brown and Posey. They were replaced with T Allen and Sheed and Baby(full time now).
Lakers have the exp under the belt now and will be alot less nervous and wont start on the road.


For me the biggest issue in this series that Boston will not be able to overcome and that has been there biggest weakness all year long is there inability to rebound the basketball. They are a terrible rebounding team and the Lakers are a great rebounding team. Second chance points will kill the celtics this time.

The other key adv that the Lakers have is there ability to shut down 3 pt shooting. Bos was on fire from 3 pt land in 2008 finals but LA has geared there defense to defend 3 pt shots and Bostons offense isnt good enough if they arent hitting 3 pt shots.

Bos has some very physical players and will present some issues for the Lakers in the paint but those players are slow and the Lakers will get the rebounds and move the ball upcourt and push the pace on Boston.

Thats my very simple analysis of this series. I am not an expert just someone who states his opinion.

I appreciate the writeup, nice to see these from some of the respected guys on here every once in a while. I personally think that confidence and lack of fear is going to be the biggest difference. Gasol is going to want to go at Garnett, that wasn't at all the case in 2008.

[WIZARDOFBEANTOWN]

celtics in 6 or 7 gl tonighti'm on la tonight -3.5bought the 2

[WIZARDOFBEANTOWN]

nice writeup lb

[paco]

Goat, you gotta realize as I just said that I look at everything critically. At the moment I am personally leaning Celts+6 but that is just a lean. I respect Shoe's play but I think paco's play wasn't as well thought through as many of his plays are. LB's pick will influence based upon his unit size.

As well, I'm going to keep checking line movements, team updates etc. etc. and most likely won't make a play until about 5 minutes before tipoff.

Oh and if ThaDiesel makes a play that will influence as well

Hels, I never Over analize a SCS. I make the play with in my face. That's why it's called just that.


Goodluck whatever u decide, 1 thing we can all agree on is...it will be a great game to watch

[coachkap]

Hels, I never Over analize a SCS. I make the play with in my face. That's why it's called just that.


Goodluck whatever u decide, 1 thing we can all agree on is...it will be a great game to watch

Hey Paco,,

How are you....? Good luck with your plays tonight....

[Goat Milk]

Okay Goat, you've written up and talked alot about game 1/the series. You made a thread stating that Boston loses game 1. What's your opinion on the LA-5.5?

Hels you already stated in that thread "it's not like your opinion matters Goat"

[TakeIt]

Lakers v Celtics breakdown

Game 1- Lakers win -98-87
Game 2- Lakers win -91-88
Game 3- Celtics win -101-88
Game 4- Lakers win -90-88
Game 5- Celtics win -92-86
Game 6- Lakers win -94-87

Lakers win series 4-2. Kobe finals MVP.

Differences from 2008 finals.

Artest better than Ariza
Garnett not as good as he was
Rondo better than he was
Biggest adv that Boston had in 2008 was Powe(big game 2)Brown and Posey. They were replaced with T Allen and Sheed and Baby(full time now).
Lakers have the exp under the belt now and will be alot less nervous and wont start on the road.


For me the biggest issue in this series that Boston will not be able to overcome and that has been there biggest weakness all year long is there inability to rebound the basketball. They are a terrible rebounding team and the Lakers are a great rebounding team. Second chance points will kill the celtics this time.

The other key adv that the Lakers have is there ability to shut down 3 pt shooting. Bos was on fire from 3 pt land in 2008 finals but LA has geared there defense to defend 3 pt shots and Bostons offense isnt good enough if they arent hitting 3 pt shots.

Bos has some very physical players and will present some issues for the Lakers in the paint but those players are slow and the Lakers will get the rebounds and move the ball upcourt and push the pace on Boston.

Thats my very simple analysis of this series. I am not an expert just someone who states his opinion.

i agree with all of this, plus the fact that the lakers are a very good road team.

they will be going all out to win the first game, because they know that is key--all out.

[paco]

Coachkap, thx pal. But do me a favor and edit ur post by taking away that clover sign

Thas the symbol of the Enemy tonight. (boston)