the under dog has won last 5 out of 6 here, got to go with Lebron again, thats a lean right now not
confirmed
Comment
Jae iLL
SBR Rookie
01-19-10
44
#25344
they playin tonight??
Comment
Jethro
SBR Hustler
04-14-10
56
#25345
just took marlins for the "sweep" ex! heres hoping!
Comment
Jethro
SBR Hustler
04-14-10
56
#25346
Originally posted by Jethro
just took marlins for the "sweep" ex! heres hoping!
also did phils RL -125. Halladay is pitching, couldnt resist!
Comment
EXpertcapper
SBR Hall of Famer
02-05-10
5026
#25347
good job jethro I am on Phil to
Comment
JR007
SBR Hall of Famer
02-21-10
5279
#25348
I think there's a general consensus from fans and media that the pointspreads have been fairly TERRIBLE when it comes to expressing the true differences between teams lately in the NBA playoffs.
I talked about this some the other day. Since then...Orlando continued CRUSHING Atlanta by more than the spread...Phoenix finished off its dominating sweep of San Antonio...and even Los Angeles lifted its game to cover easily in the two games at Utah.
Not only were the reads on the teams wrong. But, the reads on the "situation" were wrong too. Teams in position to "finish off a sweep" have been doing that very convincingly in recent years. Yet, in that situation, Phoenix was +4, the Lakers were +3½, and Orlando was only -6 in a series where they were winning every game by double digits. GIFTS!
Who's to blame?
Oddsmakers will say it's not them. I've noticed this for a long time. And, maybe sometimes I'm a bit guilty of it myself. Human nature. If the media is asking an oddsmaker why he has a pointspread at a certain place, he'll talk about the differences between the teams, the differences in his Power Ratings, and basically express that the spread represents the true differential (after its' adjusted for home court).
But, after some spreads have missed by a mile, oddsmakers then say that the numbers are based on betting action...and aren't "predictions" of the games. They're a reaction to money rather than the teams themselves.
Oddsmakers like to have it both ways! We're experts at evaluating the teams. If the numbers aren't matching reality, it's not our fault because dumb bettors are putting their money in the wrong places.
The market prices are a function of several factors:
What oddsmakers think about the teams
What oddsmakers expect in terms of betting patterns
What sharps think about the teams
What squares think about the teams
How oddsmakers and sharps try to exploit squares
How oddsmakers and sharps battle each other if squares aren't betting
All of that adds up to a "widely available" line late in the process that reflects the full picture. Whenever reality isn't matching THOSE numbers, it's generally a miss by EVERYBODY.
Comment
jagermeister1
SBR Sharp
08-06-08
323
#25349
Originally posted by Jethro
just took marlins for the "sweep" ex! heres hoping!
Hope you're wrong. I'm on a chase with the Cubs.
Note to self: Don't bet on the Cubs anymore. Culture of losing up there.
Comment
Jethro
SBR Hustler
04-14-10
56
#25350
Originally posted by EXpertcapper
LIke Florida to get out the broom today
Originally posted by jagermeister1
Hope you're wrong. I'm on a chase with the Cubs. Note to self: Don't bet on the Cubs anymore. Culture of losing up there.
I think there's a general consensus from fans and media that the pointspreads have been fairly TERRIBLE when it comes to expressing the true differences between teams lately in the NBA playoffs. I talked about this some the other day. Since then...Orlando continued CRUSHING Atlanta by more than the spread...Phoenix finished off its dominating sweep of San Antonio...and even Los Angeles lifted its game to cover easily in the two games at Utah. Not only were the reads on the teams wrong. But, the reads on the "situation" were wrong too. Teams in position to "finish off a sweep" have been doing that very convincingly in recent years. Yet, in that situation, Phoenix was +4, the Lakers were +3½, and Orlando was only -6 in a series where they were winning every game by double digits. GIFTS! Who's to blame? Oddsmakers will say it's not them. I've noticed this for a long time. And, maybe sometimes I'm a bit guilty of it myself. Human nature. If the media is asking an oddsmaker why he has a pointspread at a certain place, he'll talk about the differences between the teams, the differences in his Power Ratings, and basically express that the spread represents the true differential (after its' adjusted for home court). But, after some spreads have missed by a mile, oddsmakers then say that the numbers are based on betting action...and aren't "predictions" of the games. They're a reaction to money rather than the teams themselves. Oddsmakers like to have it both ways! We're experts at evaluating the teams. If the numbers aren't matching reality, it's not our fault because dumb bettors are putting their money in the wrong places. The market prices are a function of several factors:
What oddsmakers think about the teams
What oddsmakers expect in terms of betting patterns
What sharps think about the teams
What squares think about the teams
How oddsmakers and sharps try to exploit squares
How oddsmakers and sharps battle each other if squares aren't betting
All of that adds up to a "widely available" line late in the process that reflects the full picture. Whenever reality isn't matching THOSE numbers, it's generally a miss by EVERYBODY.
You think the books didn't know what they were doing in the Orlando/Atlanta series?
[B][B]They key isn't getting rich quick. The key is getting rich slowly, and enjoying it.
Oddsmakers didn't realize Orlando was that much better than Atlanta. Sharps didn't either. Squares aren't betting much pro basketball relative to the past. Those who are have been more focused on the games involving Kobe and LeBron. It all added up to pointspreads that look pretty insane in retrospect.
Was there ever a point Monday Night where "Orlando -6" felt like the right line in that game? Orlando jumped way ahead early and coasted. Sure, Atlanta made a run or two. But, the game was a continuation of a dominant series.
How about Utah -3½ over the Lakers in the TV nightcap? The Lakers took control early, and a Utah cover never felt like it had a chance. It ended up being a line that was completely detached from the reality of the night.
San Antonio -4 back on Sunday? Steve Nash had his eye bashed shut, yet Phoenix still felt like the true favorite most of the evening.
Ultimately, I think that these were the key influences that kept the lines so far away from reality:
Few could believe that Orlando was THAT much better than Atlanta. Nobody could believe their own eyes, so they went back to Power Ratings and statistics to assume a regression to the mean that was never going to happen.
Few could believe that Phoenix was ready to step up and control San Antonio to the degree they did. Sure, the Suns can play well when they're hot. They're not known for consistency. People bet on inconsistency and it didn't happen.
Many bettors (sharp and square) were anticipating "play for pride" efforts from Utah and San Antonio that just didn't happen. There was money being bet on San Antonio -4 and Utah -3½, as bad as those bets look now. How can you blame oddsmakers for their lines when there was support for the losing teams at those numbers? If there were oddsmakers who truly believed that Lakers -2 or Phoenix -1 made more sense, their employers would have been flooded with one-sided action.
The good news for YOU is that it's a player's market right now if you know how to evaluate NBA teams properly. This happens often in pro basketball for some reason. We saw it last year when Cleveland was a HUGE false favorite over Orlando in the Eastern finals. You may remember that the Lakers had big betting support in the finals two years ago when they lost to Boston. When market perceptions begin off track, there isn't time to get them on track.
How many games would it have taken for Phoenix to be -8 at home and -2 on the road? Or, Orlando -15 at home and -8 on the road? Or, any road team in a "clincher" game to be properly priced?
Comment
DEGENR8
SBR Wise Guy
04-14-10
729
#25355
come on phils and marlins dont let me down!
Comment
refrain87
SBR Wise Guy
03-17-10
884
#25356
Anyone gonna play the Angels tonight? I'm soo leaning towards angels..
Comment
lakerboy
SBR Aristocracy
04-02-09
94379
#25357
angels rule as home dogs. like the play.
Comment
DEGENR8
SBR Wise Guy
04-14-10
729
#25358
Originally posted by lakerboy
angels rule as home dogs. like the play.
against tampa?
Comment
EXpertcapper
SBR Hall of Famer
02-05-10
5026
#25359
Angels here tonight 4 star play
Comment
EXpertcapper
SBR Hall of Famer
02-05-10
5026
#25360
Price for tb 6 era at la
Comment
JR007
SBR Hall of Famer
02-21-10
5279
#25361
Originally posted by EXpertcapper
ok coachnap i figured people would realize this
how ya doing today JR see you commented in baseball forum
Thanks for asking Doc...I am fine..... shit happens......that is why you pay your Bills when you win (ALWAYS)
best to the wife
Comment
EXpertcapper
SBR Hall of Famer
02-05-10
5026
#25362
Thanks JR007 best advice i heard yet
Comment
refrain87
SBR Wise Guy
03-17-10
884
#25363
Playing angels! Lets cash it LB/EX!
Comment
jagermeister1
SBR Sharp
08-06-08
323
#25364
Hey EX, what do you think about the Cavs/Celtics series price? -190 Celtics, +160 Cavs.
Comment
paco
SBR Aristocracy
05-07-09
62873
#25365
need a 3 spot by the Phillies coming up next
Comment
magic8ball
SBR Sharp
05-08-10
259
#25366
Hey Paco, does your accountant let you deduct the breast bar as a gambling expence? Good call last night.
Comment
dume walker
SBR Wise Guy
04-08-10
971
#25367
Originally posted by JR007
I think there's a general consensus from fans and media that the pointspreads have been fairly TERRIBLE when it comes to expressing the true differences between teams lately in the NBA playoffs.
I talked about this some the other day. Since then...Orlando continued CRUSHING Atlanta by more than the spread...Phoenix finished off its dominating sweep of San Antonio...and even Los Angeles lifted its game to cover easily in the two games at Utah.
Not only were the reads on the teams wrong. But, the reads on the "situation" were wrong too. Teams in position to "finish off a sweep" have been doing that very convincingly in recent years. Yet, in that situation, Phoenix was +4, the Lakers were +3½, and Orlando was only -6 in a series where they were winning every game by double digits. GIFTS!
Who's to blame?
Oddsmakers will say it's not them. I've noticed this for a long time. And, maybe sometimes I'm a bit guilty of it myself. Human nature. If the media is asking an oddsmaker why he has a pointspread at a certain place, he'll talk about the differences between the teams, the differences in his Power Ratings, and basically express that the spread represents the true differential (after its' adjusted for home court).
But, after some spreads have missed by a mile, oddsmakers then say that the numbers are based on betting action...and aren't "predictions" of the games. They're a reaction to money rather than the teams themselves.
Oddsmakers like to have it both ways! We're experts at evaluating the teams. If the numbers aren't matching reality, it's not our fault because dumb bettors are putting their money in the wrong places.
The market prices are a function of several factors:
What oddsmakers think about the teams
What oddsmakers expect in terms of betting patterns
What sharps think about the teams
What squares think about the teams
How oddsmakers and sharps try to exploit squares
How oddsmakers and sharps battle each other if squares aren't betting
All of that adds up to a "widely available" line late in the process that reflects the full picture. Whenever reality isn't matching THOSE numbers, it's generally a miss by EVERYBODY.
So how does this translate into any opinion you might have on Cleveland/Boston Game 6? Are you feeling Cleveland has been overrated this year as they were when they took on Orlando last year? And if so, do you feel Boston is a strong pick tomorrow night?
Comment
paco
SBR Aristocracy
05-07-09
62873
#25368
Good luck today guys
Comment
paste_me
SBR MVP
11-11-09
1832
#25369
Any leans on the cavs game tonight guys
Comment
EXpertcapper
SBR Hall of Famer
02-05-10
5026
#25370
Boston -1 15X
Comment
kobefanatic
SBR Hall of Famer
01-19-10
9013
#25371
Originally posted by EXpertcapper
Boston -1 15X
expert do you think cleveland is really done? and also what about the totals?
Comment
Joe
SBR Rookie
09-01-08
40
#25372
ex
what bout the total
lmao same ques kobe
Comment
rgga86
SBR High Roller
02-21-09
216
#25373
Originally posted by paste_me
Any leans on the cavs game tonight guys
the game is tomorrow isnt it?
Comment
EXpertcapper
SBR Hall of Famer
02-05-10
5026
#25374
yes rgga86
Comment
paco
SBR Aristocracy
05-07-09
62873
#25375
Going to the club in a few guys. Will have a play by 1am