Simulation beta 1.1 predictions thread

[bustabook]

mrsleepy- i'm not completely sure i understand the question, but...

the reason i backtested 10 games instead of 5 is simple.. to get a larger sample size for more accuracy on future plays while keeping the integrity of the testing up. i can test any amount of games going back (up to the entire season), but i really feel comfortable only going back 10 games because i believe the data is still relevant with regard to the games being tested.

hope this helps..

[bustabook]

root, i loved the game at 207.5.. now that it has moved all the way up to 210 it is up to you, but i think it has lost much of its value.

[vic]

Busta, why wouldn't the under on Pacers/NJ be stronger play (margin 14.5) than over on Knicks(margin 5.5)?

[bustabook]

vic.. while plays with huge margins (ie. 14.5) have shown to win at a good clip.. other ranges have performed even better.

i could just be lazy and say "bet the high margins," but i think i would be cheating everyone out of profits found in other places.. thats the very reason why we backtested, to get to know the system (and its strong points).

[Nick6570]

glad to see you back in full swing busta

[Nick6570]

Hey busta i though the higher the margin the stronger the play?? How do you decide what plays are stronger then the others

[bustabook]

nick... as a general rule you are absolutely correct.. the higher the margin the higher the win rate.

but there are certain angles that have performed better (ie. underdogs w/margins between 4-7), and these angles are what we are trying to exploit with tonight's plays.

[KenMasta]

VERSION 2-
--------------------------

strongest plays:

Toronto/New York Over 207.5
Washington +6
Portland +4.5
Milwaukee +4.5

these plays fall into ranges which have backtested very very well.. plays these and play them soon, as i assume the lines will move.

Perfect card!
Thanks for sharing...

[Intangible]

Looking good busta

[jcygts6]

goood stuff

[bustabook]

January 15th, Version 2 Summary:

Toronto/New York Over 207.5
Washington +6
Portland +4.5
Milwaukee +4.5

---------------------

3-0 today, 4-0 if you just trusted the system and took milwaukee..

Anyway, talk to you guys tomorrow.. Hopefully we will have some angles to shoot at..

[MrSleepy]

mrsleepy- i'm not completely sure i understand the question, but...

the reason i backtested 10 games instead of 5 is simple.. to get a larger sample size for more accuracy on future plays while keeping the integrity of the testing up. i can test any amount of games going back (up to the entire season), but i really feel comfortable only going back 10 games because i believe the data is still relevant with regard to the games being tested.

hope this helps..

yes this pretty much anwsered my question. Thank you for the feedback. great call on the plays tonite!

lets keep it going!

[bustabook]

thanks mrsleepy- lets do it..

yo intangible.. how goes it?

[MrSleepy]

You know, im going to try 10 games back using my calculations and see what i get. its alittle more work but lets see how it goes.

[Joe Dogs]

Nice Going Busta......Been a lurker here a while......Very interesting forum....Appreciate All your work and info....BOL in regard to your systems.

[vic]

Busta, yesterday I was trying to figure out sweet spot from the info you gave and have noticed that-if the (margin < 2) if you bet the opposite on side pick, winning percentage are very high. So from the last two V2 (margin < 2) it's 8-3. Lakers & Dallas are very inconsistent ATS, Detoit who know? These are 03 losses. I hope this trend continue.

[DaProfessor23]

hey bustabook. looks like you doing pretty well here. im probly start tailing you for half a unit for each play to see how it goes. best of luck to you with this system!

[El Mexa]

Busta, good job with your system, keep working man!!

[Nick6570]

Busta I have a good feeling your gonna come back stronger then ever!!

[bustabook]

New Orleans 100.7 - Indiana 100.3 (Expected Line: Indiana +0.4, 201.0)
Side play: New Orleans (+2.5) (Margin: 2.9)
Total Play: Under 207 (Margin: 6.0)
Sacramento 105.6 - Washington 107.2 (Expected Line: Washington -1.6, 212.8)
Side play: Washington (+1.5) (Margin: 3.1)
Total Play: Over 209 (Margin: 3.8)
Phoenix 101.3 - Charlotte 101.3 (Expected Line: Charlotte 0.0, 202.6)
Side play: Phoenix (+2.5) (Margin: 2.5)
Total Play: Under 208.5 (Margin: 5.9)
New York 97.1 - Detroit 96.1 (Expected Line: Detroit +1.0, 193.2)
Side play: New York (+1) (Margin: 2.0)
Total Play: Under 194 (Margin: 0.8)
San Antonio 104.7 - Memphis 100.8 (Expected Line: Memphis +3.9, 205.5)
Side play: San Antonio (+1.5) (Margin: 5.4)
Total Play: Over 199 (Margin: 6.5)
Miami 91.3 - Okla City 97.9 (Expected Line: Okla City -6.6, 189.2)
Side play: Okla City (-3.5) (Margin: 3.1)
Total Play: Under 194 (Margin: 4.8)
Milwaukee 92.4 - Utah 100.5 (Expected Line: Utah -8.1, 192.9)
Side play: Milwaukee (+9.5) (Margin: 1.4)
Total Play: Under 195 (Margin: 2.1)
Cleveland 97.5 - LA Clippers 92.7 (Expected Line: LA Clippers +4.8, 190.2)
Side play: LA Clippers (+8.5) (Margin: 3.7)
Total Play: Under 193 (Margin: 2.8)

--------------------------

here are verion 2's results for today.. i have to run out for a bit but when i get back i will post the plays. at first glance i can see we have a few good spots.

GL

[bustabook]

vic.. you are on the right track.. i like that you are trying to figure out sweet spots for yourself. there are most likely a few that i have yet to notice/exploit. i may have omitted plays that have smaller margins on purpose, because even a slight line movement will nullify said plays. but best of luck to you.

[bustabook]

Version 2 plays, January 16:

New Orleans (+2.5)
Washington (+1.5)
Phoenix (+2.5)
New York (+2)
San Antonio (+1.5)
LA Clippers (+8.5)


New Orleans/Indiana Under 207
Sacramento/Washington Over 209
Phoenix/Charlotte Under 208.5
San Antonio/Memphis Over 199
Miami/Oklahoma City Under 194

--------------------

I know it looks like we are just betting the dogs across the board, but we aren't. All of these plays are falling into sweet spots. I suggest picking and choosing which you like best.

A few of these teams are playing on B2B, and you may want to try to "guess" which teams will be affected more. For instance, Washington played 3OT last night.. San Antonio and Phoenix are older teams.. I am not saying not to play these games, I am saying you have to make the decision for yourselves. Sometimes statistics don't tell the whole story. This also applies for totals..

I have some obligations tonight so I won't be able to get back or respond to questions before gametime.. So GL everyone.. I hope I gave you a good start to handicapping what is looking like a nice card tonight.

[MrSleepy]

busta, I have to say that this is the 1st time that my #s and yours do not line up together and i am very curious as to why today's games? i will be trying to figure this out. normally we are over 80%(safe percentage) on the nose with the plays(especially on the over/unders) but for some reason, i only have 1 game that we agree on. Very interesting....

[doublec]

busta, I have to say that this is the 1st time that my #s and yours do not line up together and i am very curious as to why today's games? i will be trying to figure this out. normally we are over 80%(safe percentage) on the nose with the plays(especially on the over/unders) but for some reason, i only have 1 game that we agree on. Very interesting....

You aren't the only one. Same thing here. I think Busta's new matchup system is completely different than traditional average-based systems. We'll just have to see how well his new system works, although I hate to pick against him...

Should be interesting.

[genius]

Jazz
cavs
thunder
hornets/pacers under
nyk/det/under
kings/wiz over

5.00 to win 78.81

i hope i hit im scared of the kings/wiz because i know gilbert is the point guy for them so i hope nick young goes off

[genius]

Also i think with kevin martin back and gilbert out it evens it up

[MrSleepy]

You aren't the only one. Same thing here. I think Busta's new matchup system is completely different than traditional average-based systems. We'll just have to see how well his new system works, although I hate to pick against him...

Should be interesting.

yea i dont want to go against busta's system so im hoping i missed something but i have to admit, its pretty close on most of the games with the exceptions of 1 or 2 games. Makes me feel better that i wasnt the only 1 with 'different' results.

[JohnAnthony]

From all the games listed here, I think I picked the only sure loser tonight. Meh..

[BigTrev]

i always get confused by line betting,

eg New Orleans (+2.5) , does that mean they loose by 3 or more points then you loose?

the game just finished with a score of 101 to 96 (new orleans winning) so does that mean the bet doesnt pay?

[bustabook]

if new orleans is +2.5.. they have to lose by less than 2.5 points (or win) for you to win your bet.. if they were -2.5, they would have to win by 2.5 points or more for you to win your bet.

mrsleepy... sorry our games don't match up today. i have no control (other than the fact that i put the model together) of what the model predicts.. GL

[BigTrev]

dam, it lost

oh well

[bustabook]

trev... if you had new orleans (+2.5).. than you won.

if the line is positive, you add that many points to your team's final score.. if its negative, you subtract that many points..

since new orleans won outright and they were underdogs, you win.. dont make it more complicated than it is.

[BigTrev]

oh shit, your right

sorry, like i said i always get confused , thanks

[genius]

what do ya think for cavs/clippers

[MrSleepy]

it looks like yours were much better #s than mine and doublec. which is good news regarding your model sims. that's cool. For this reason is why i didnt put up any money today. just trying to have alittle money management control...