-
Comment -
Yeah busta you know you have the whole fourms supportComment -
ty sir nick... i have never questioned the forum's support.
i have nothing but good things to say about everyone who has contributed to this thread (and that INCLUDES those who have constructively critisized).
part of the reason i am still working on the things i am is because of the support i get.
thanks again.Comment -
yes sir busta. you got lots of support on here whether they post up or not. I know i was a spectator for a few months before i started posting up in a few of the threads.Comment -
Where can I see the daily simulations????
Is there any way I can see the daily simulations if they're still being done? I signed up for the e-mail list. Is it still being e-mailed out? Cuz I'm not getting them. Either way, I'm just trying to see the daily sims. If anyone knows how i can get them let me know. Later.Comment -
Bustabook is in the process of revising his sim system steven.Comment -
steven... i have been working hard on the new systems, so i haven't been running the sims..
tell you what, i will run them for the next few days.. i have been getting requests to do so, so whynot..
ill start tomorrow.Comment -
Sounds like a good idea busta, I enjoy tracking your systemComment -
Side Low/High Margin: 2/4 --- Total Low/High Margin: 2/4
52-36 (59%), 42-51 (45%)
Side Low/High Margin: 2/5 --- Total Low/High Margin: 2/5
63-46 (58%), 61-64 (49%)
Side Low/High Margin: 2/6 --- Total Low/High Margin: 2/6
78-52 (60%), 81-68 (54%)
Side Low/High Margin: 2/7 --- Total Low/High Margin: 2/7
82-52 (61%), 86-76 (53%)
Side Low/High Margin: 2/8 --- Total Low/High Margin: 2/8
84-58 (59%), 88-80 (52%)
Side Low/High Margin: 2/9 --- Total Low/High Margin: 2/9
86-58 (60%), 91-82 (53%)
Side Low/High Margin: 2/10 --- Total Low/High Margin: 2/10
88-58 (60%), 97-86 (53%)
Side Low/High Margin: 3/4 --- Total Low/High Margin: 3/4
26-16 (62%), 16-20 (44%)
Side Low/High Margin: 3/5 --- Total Low/High Margin: 3/5
37-26 (59%), 35-33 (51%)
Side Low/High Margin: 3/6 --- Total Low/High Margin: 3/6
52-32 (62%), 55-37 (60%)
Side Low/High Margin: 3/7 --- Total Low/High Margin: 3/7
56-32 (64%), 60-45 (57%)
Side Low/High Margin: 3/8 --- Total Low/High Margin: 3/8
58-38 (60%), 62-49 (56%)
Side Low/High Margin: 3/9 --- Total Low/High Margin: 3/9
60-38 (61%), 65-51 (56%)
Side Low/High Margin: 3/10 --- Total Low/High Margin: 3/10
62-38 (62%), 71-55 (56%)
Side Low/High Margin: 4/5 --- Total Low/High Margin: 4/5
11-10 (52%), 19-15 (56%)
Side Low/High Margin: 4/6 --- Total Low/High Margin: 4/6
26-16 (62%), 39-19 (67%)
Side Low/High Margin: 4/7 --- Total Low/High Margin: 4/7
30-16 (65%), 44-27 (62%)
Side Low/High Margin: 4/8 --- Total Low/High Margin: 4/8
32-22 (59%), 46-31 (60%)
Side Low/High Margin: 4/9 --- Total Low/High Margin: 4/9
34-22 (61%), 49-33 (60%)
Side Low/High Margin: 4/10 --- Total Low/High Margin: 4/10
36-22 (62%), 55-37 (60%)
Side Low/High Margin: 5/6 --- Total Low/High Margin: 5/6
17-6 (74%), 20-6 (77%)
Side Low/High Margin: 5/7 --- Total Low/High Margin: 5/7
21-6 (78%), 25-14 (64%)
Side Low/High Margin: 5/8 --- Total Low/High Margin: 5/8
23-12 (66%), 27-18 (60%)
Side Low/High Margin: 5/9 --- Total Low/High Margin: 5/9
25-12 (68%), 30-20 (60%)
Side Low/High Margin: 5/10 --- Total Low/High Margin: 5/10
27-12 (69%), 36-24 (60%)
here is a snippet of the backtesting results for version 2 over the past 10 games for each team.
---------------------------------
if you are having a tough time deciphering what this means.. ill try to explain.
as you may know, the new version uses "margins" as opposed to "percentages". margins are the difference between the actual line and the expected (fair) line.
so.. if it says "Side Low/High Margin: 4/10 --- Total Low/High Margin: 4/10" it means that this backtest data reflects all games where the margins, for sides, were between 4 and 10.. and for totals, between 4/10. the percentages below the margin ranges are the corresponding w/l totals (and percentages).
by the way, here are the plays (margins included) for today.. i omitted 3 games because i dont have the lines just yet..
--------------------------
San Antonio 93.4 - Charlotte 90.4 (Expected Line: Charlotte +3.0, 183.8)
Side play: San Antonio (-2) (Margin: 1.0)
Total Play: Under 188.5 (Margin: 4.7)
Sacramento 103.9 - Philadelphia 105.7 (Expected Line: Philadelphia -1.8, 209.6)
Side play: Sacramento (+3) (Margin: 1.2)
Total Play: Over 207 (Margin: 2.6)
Phoenix 106.2 - Atlanta 111.9 (Expected Line: Atlanta -5.7, 218.1)
Side play: Atlanta (-4.5) (Margin: 1.2)
Total Play: Over 217 (Margin: 1.1)
Washington 95.3 - Chicago 98.7 (Expected Line: Chicago -3.4, 194.0)
Side play: Washington (+6) (Margin: 2.6)
Total Play: Under 199 (Margin: 5.0)
Minnesota 98.9 - Memphis 111.0 (Expected Line: Memphis -12.1, 209.9)
Side play: Memphis (-8.5) (Margin: 3.6)
Total Play: Over 207 (Margin: 2.9)
Indiana 97.9 - New Jersey 95.6 (Expected Line: New Jersey +2.3, 193.5)
Side play: New Jersey (+3.5) (Margin: 1.2)
Total Play: Under 208 (Margin: 14.5)
Toronto 104.4 - New York 108.6 (Expected Line: New York -4.2, 213.0)
Side play: New York (-2.5) (Margin: 1.7)
Total Play: Over 207.5 (Margin: 5.5)
Okla City 94.9 - Dallas 98.9 (Expected Line: Dallas -4.0, 193.8)
Side play: Okla City (+5) (Margin: 1.0)
Total Play: Under 195 (Margin: 1.2)
Miami 94.8 - Houston 99.4 (Expected Line: Houston -4.6, 194.2)
Side play: Houston (-4.5) (Margin: 0.1)
Total Play: Over 194 (Margin: 0.2)
Milwaukee 107.5 - Golden State 107.5 (Expected Line: Golden State +0.0, 215.0)
Side play: Milwaukee (+4.5) (Margin: 4.5)
Total Play: Under 216 (Margin: 1.0)
-------------------------
i am in the process of breaking down more angles (unders/overs, favorites/underdogs).. so keep an eye on the thread.
i will also post todays simulation plays as soon as they are finished.. which should be in a couple of hours.
GLComment -
also.. all w/l totals need to divided by 2. this is because each game is tested twice (once for each team). the percentages remain the same.Comment -
San Antonio @ Charlotte (2) 188.5
Average Score: San Antonio 92 - Charlotte 95 (Sim line: Charlotte -3, 187)
Outright wins: San Antonio 397 - Charlotte 566 (Charlotte 58.8%)
ATS wins: San Antonio 350 - Charlotte 627 (Charlotte 64.2%)
O/U: Over 435 - Under 565 (Under 56.5%)
Sacramento @ Philadelphia (-3) 207
Average Score: Sacramento 110 - Philadelphia 105 (Sim line: Sacramento -5, 215)
Outright wins: Sacramento 621 - Philadelphia 356 (Sacramento 63.6%)
ATS wins: Sacramento 682 - Philadelphia 301 (Sacramento 69.4%)
O/U: Over 695 - Under 281 (Over 71.2%)
Phoenix @ Atlanta (-4.5) 217
Average Score: Phoenix 101 - Atlanta 110 (Sim line: Atlanta -9, 211)
Outright wins: Phoenix 271 - Atlanta 717 (Atlanta 72.6%)
ATS wins: Phoenix 369 - Atlanta 631 (Atlanta 63.1%)
O/U: Over 324 - Under 656 (Under 66.9%)
New Orleans @ Detroit (-1) 194
Average Score: New Orleans 98 - Detroit 101 (Sim line: Detroit -3, 199)
Outright wins: New Orleans 425 - Detroit 555 (Detroit 56.6%)
ATS wins: New Orleans 445 - Detroit 534 (Detroit 54.5%)
O/U: Over 607 - Under 366 (Over 62.4%)
Minnesota @ Memphis (-8.5) 207
Average Score: Minnesota 105 - Memphis 108 (Sim line: Memphis -3, 213)
Outright wins: Minnesota 398 - Memphis 572 (Memphis 59.0%)
ATS wins: Minnesota 613 - Memphis 387 (Minnesota 61.3%)
O/U: Over 626 - Under 351 (Over 64.1%)
Indiana @ New Jersey (3.5) 208
Average Score: Indiana 101 - New Jersey 99 (Sim line: Indiana -2, 200)
Outright wins: Indiana 556 - New Jersey 419 (Indiana 57.0%)
ATS wins: Indiana 479 - New Jersey 521 (New Jersey 52.1%)
O/U: Over 272 - Under 701 (Under 72.0%)
Toronto @ New York (-2.5) 207.5
Average Score: Toronto 103 - New York 112 (Sim line: New York -9, 215)
Outright wins: Toronto 264 - New York 716 (New York 73.1%)
ATS wins: Toronto 332 - New York 668 (New York 66.8%)
O/U: Over 687 - Under 313 (Over 68.7%)
Washington @ Chicago (-6) 199
Average Score: Washington 95 - Chicago 103 (Sim line: Chicago -8, 198)
Outright wins: Washington 298 - Chicago 678 (Chicago 69.5%)
ATS wins: Washington 440 - Chicago 535 (Chicago 54.9%)
O/U: Over 474 - Under 488 (Under 50.7%)
Okla City @ Dallas (-5) 195
Average Score: Okla City 95 - Dallas 94 (Sim line: Okla City -1, 189)
Outright wins: Okla City 501 - Dallas 469 (Okla City 51.6%)
ATS wins: Okla City 640 - Dallas 338 (Okla City 65.4%)
O/U: Over 313 - Under 662 (Under 67.9%)
Miami @ Houston (-4.5) 194
Average Score: Miami 95 - Houston 102 (Sim line: Houston -7, 197)
Outright wins: Miami 293 - Houston 688 (Houston 70.1%)
ATS wins: Miami 434 - Houston 566 (Houston 56.6%)
O/U: Over 570 - Under 407 (Over 58.3%)
Milwaukee @ Golden State (-4.5) 216
Average Score: Milwaukee 106 - Golden State 101 (Sim line: Milwaukee -5, 207)
Outright wins: Milwaukee 617 - Golden State 368 (Milwaukee 62.6%)
ATS wins: Milwaukee 722 - Golden State 278 (Milwaukee 72.2%)
O/U: Over 266 - Under 712 (Under 72.8%)
LA Clippers @ LA Lakers (-12) 198
Average Score: LA Clippers 90 - LA Lakers 105 (Sim line: LA Lakers -15, 195)
Outright wins: LA Clippers 142 - LA Lakers 846 (LA Lakers 85.6%)
ATS wins: LA Clippers 403 - LA Lakers 567 (LA Lakers 58.5%)
O/U: Over 388 - Under 583 (Under 60.0%)
Orlando @ Portland (2) 206
Average Score: Orlando 96 - Portland 98 (Sim line: Portland -2, 194)
Outright wins: Orlando 415 - Portland 564 (Portland 57.6%)
ATS wins: Orlando 363 - Portland 608 (Portland 62.6%)
O/U: Over 197 - Under 784 (Under 79.9%)
-------------------
ill let you guys decide what plays you like.. 3 games omitted because of lack of lines.
GL..Comment -
this is excelllent.Comment -
I had a question but i answered it myself.... duohhh!Comment -
according to version 2.. there are 2 big plays tonight..
Washington (+6)
Toronto/New York Over 208
get on them ASAP, the lines are moving on both of them..Comment -
Simulation plays correct???
Charlotte 64.2%
Sacramento 69.4% Over 71.2%
Phoenix @ Atlanta Under 66.9%
Minnesota @ Memphis Over 64.1%
Indiana @ New Jersey Under 72.0%
New York 66.8% Over 68.7%
Okla City 65.4% Under 67.9%
Milwaukee 72.2% Under 72.8%Comment -
chaz... the plays that i mentioned are not based on the simulations. they are based on version 2 of the position strengths/weaknesses model.Comment -
Hi Busta, sim posted Chi -8?Comment -
vic-
yes, sims predict chicago to cover by 2 points..
version 2, on the other hand, predicts the wizards to cover by 2.5 points.
the reason i say that the wizards are a big play today is because the margin falls in a range that has been very very successful when backtested.. underdogs with margins greater than 2 are 22-8 (73%) during backtesting over the past 150 games.
do with that what you will, GLComment -
vic.. all of version 2's plays were posted a little earlier today.Comment -
Comment -
i am starting to wonder if i should start a new thread for version 2 to avoid further confusion..Comment -
Busta, can you post all play for version 2?Comment -
VERSION 2-
San Antonio 93.4 - Charlotte 90.4 (Expected Line: Charlotte +3.0, 183.8)
Side play: San Antonio (-2) (Margin: 1.0)
Total Play: Under 188.5 (Margin: 4.7)
Sacramento 103.9 - Philadelphia 105.7 (Expected Line: Philadelphia -1.8, 209.6)
Side play: Sacramento (+3) (Margin: 1.2)
Total Play: Over 207 (Margin: 2.6)
Phoenix 106.2 - Atlanta 111.9 (Expected Line: Atlanta -5.7, 218.1)
Side play: Atlanta (-4.5) (Margin: 1.2)
Total Play: Over 217 (Margin: 1.1)
Washington 95.3 - Chicago 98.7 (Expected Line: Chicago -3.4, 194.0)
Side play: Washington (+6) (Margin: 2.6)
Total Play: Under 199 (Margin: 5.0)
Minnesota 98.9 - Memphis 111.0 (Expected Line: Memphis -12.1, 209.9)
Side play: Memphis (-8.5) (Margin: 3.6)
Total Play: Over 207 (Margin: 2.9)
Indiana 97.9 - New Jersey 95.6 (Expected Line: New Jersey +2.3, 193.5)
Side play: New Jersey (+3.5) (Margin: 1.2)
Total Play: Under 208 (Margin: 14.5)
Toronto 104.4 - New York 108.6 (Expected Line: New York -4.2, 213.0)
Side play: New York (-2.5) (Margin: 1.7)
Total Play: Over 207.5 (Margin: 5.5)
Okla City 94.9 - Dallas 98.9 (Expected Line: Dallas -4.0, 193.8)
Side play: Okla City (+5) (Margin: 1.0)
Total Play: Under 195 (Margin: 1.2)
Miami 94.8 - Houston 99.4 (Expected Line: Houston -4.6, 194.2)
Side play: Houston (-4.5) (Margin: 0.1)
Total Play: Over 194 (Margin: 0.2)
Milwaukee 107.5 - Golden State 107.5 (Expected Line: Golden State +0.0, 215.0)
Side play: Milwaukee (+4.5) (Margin: 4.5)
Total Play: Under 216 (Margin: 1.0)
New Orleans 94.1 - Detroit 93.6 (Expected Line: Detroit +0.5, 187.7)
Side play: Detroit (+2) (Margin: 1.5)
Total Play: Under 191.5 (Margin: 3.8)
LA Clippers 91.5 - LA Lakers 103.5 (Expected Line: LA Lakers -12.0, 195.0)
Side play: LA Lakers (-10.5) (Margin: 1.5)
Total Play: Under 198 (Margin: 3.0)
Orlando 94.1 - Portland 95.1 (Expected Line: Portland -1.0, 189.2)
Side play: Portland (+4.5) (Margin: 5.5)
Total Play: Under 193.5 (Margin: 4.3)
--------------------------
strongest plays:
Toronto/New York Over 207.5
Washington +6
Portland +4.5
Milwaukee +4.5
these plays fall into ranges which have backtested very very well.. plays these and play them soon, as i assume the lines will move.Comment -
Does the system take into account injuires? like Mil losing Redd?Comment -
jcljack- no... i am taking out the milwaukee play.
thanksComment -
Redd's +/- is pretty bad - I'm not sure having him out is necessarily a bad thing.
Hey Busta....if you get a chance, could you elaborate a little more on your backtest methodology? Are you using current data to test prior games, or are you cutting off data at the date before the game - for example, when testing a game on 1/2/2010, only use data up to 1/1/2010 to make the prediction.
Thanks.Comment -
Can you get back on the email thing with concensus picks from all models and sims?Comment -
New York/Toronto is at 210 now.Comment -
dj... this is what i like about you, you ask the right questions.
and the answer is i only went back about 3 weeks (10 games for each team to be exact).. this is because i cant get data from prior dates but i felt that the data i have should be close enough to gaurantee accurate results.
if you have a better method for backtesting i am more than willing to listen..
-------------------
also, very good point on redd's +/- numbers.. i wont re-add milwaukee to the list of "strong" plays, but i suggest everyone take a close look at it.Comment -
chaz-
i saw that, and i believe it has lost alot of its value.. FWIW i bet it once at 207.5 and again at 209.Comment -
palmers-
i will be posting plays here (in the forum) for the time being, but all the information is here.. so if you put a little work in you can find the consensus plays for yourself..
GLComment -
busta, when you do the backtesting 10 games prior, is that more accurate than say 5 games or 6 games? I have noticed differences in my calculations and me basically using the last 3 and 5 games. Would the outcomes be different on some being that those games are more recent games? is it possible to pick a few teams to try this to see how the results vary from the 10 games that you use for your sims?Comment -
NY/Toronto Total 210!!
the knicks/raptors total line moved up again to 210, what do you guys all think??? Still take the over?Comment
