Simulation beta 1.1 predictions thread

CHAZ · 12-16-09, 11:17 AM

Great job man! Keep it up!!

bustabook · 12-16-09, 12:47 PM

thanks for the points lincecum and chillarn, thats way cool of you guys..

peter.. that is good to know. now that i know that maybe i will go back and break down which sides are not doing well (favoirites or dogs) and work on it..

OK well GL, im running sims for the last two games now and they will be up later on today.. probably around 4 or 5 p.m. EST.

BullDozer · 12-16-09, 01:03 PM

After you've been doing it for a while, it will be interesting to go back through and see if the higher percentages actually came out winners more than the lower percentages or if it all just evens out in the end.

Here's hoping for another great night!!

bustabook · 12-16-09, 05:15 PM

thanks bull.. yeah i'm definately hoping to get a correlation between the sim win% and the actual win% but i think i have to give it a few more days before i have a sample size large enough to paint an accurate picture.

anyway.. here are the last two sims and the final plays list for tonight, 12/16:

Toronto @ Orlando (-11.5) 208
Average Score: Toronto 97 - Orlando 113 (Sim line: Orlando -16, 210)
Outright wins: Toronto 141 - Orlando 846 (Orlando 85.7%)
ATS wins: Toronto 381 - Orlando 619 (Orlando 61.9%)
O/U: Over 575 - Under 405 (Over 58.7%)

Cleveland @ Philadelphia (6) 194
Average Score: Cleveland 104 - Philadelphia 92 (Sim line: Cleveland -12, 196)
Outright wins: Cleveland 760 - Philadelphia 224 (Cleveland 77.2%)
ATS wins: Cleveland 630 - Philadelphia 343 (Cleveland 64.7%)
O/U: Over 506 - Under 467 (Over 52.0%)

-----------------

Side plays:
Atlanta (-9.5)
Charlotte (+3.5)
Utah (-8.5)
Milwaukee (+6)
LA Clippers (+1.5)
Washington (+2)
Golden State (+5.5)
Orlando (-11.5)
Cleveland (-6)

O/U plays:
Memphis/Atlanta Under 209
Charlotte/Indiana Over 194
LA Lakers/Milwaukee Under 198.5 (70% play)
Detroit/New Orleans Over 190
LA Clippers/Minnesota Over 191.5
Houston/Denver Under 206.5
Dallas/Oklahoma City Under 193
Washington/Sacramento Under 213
San Antonio/Golden State Under 213.5
Toronto/Orlando Over 208

(19 plays)
-------------------

there is a HUGE card tonight.. and i understand that most of you feel weird about betting 19 sides/totals. i'm not sure what to tell you LOL. i will tell you that the only game over 70% in simulations was the LA Lakers/Milwaukee Under 198.5... atlanta (-9.5), milwaukee (+6), LA Clippers (-1.5), Char/Ind Under 194, wash/sac Under 213 also had percentages near 70%. do what you will with that information..

BOL everyone, lets knock em out tonight.

LaiLai · 12-16-09, 05:17 PM

The Bucks have been playing in high-scoring games for over a month now. The OVER is 14-3 in the Bucks' last 17 games overall. When they get together with the Lakers in recent years, high-scoring games usually ensue. The last 8 meetings in this series have all seen 197 or more combined points, 6 times topping the 200-point mark. The OVER is 10-1 in the Bucks' last 11 games vs. Western Conference foes. The Bucks have given up 95 or more points in 12 consecutive games, so they are really struggling to shut teams down. The Lakers, who are the most dynamic team in the league, should put up a big number on Milwaukee tonight. The Bucks are scoring 104.2 points/game at home this year, so they should be able to hang right with L.A. in this one. Take the OVER 198 points.

krazey47409 · 12-16-09, 05:22 PM

shit looks like bucks lak due for a under then i aint betting on it all my bets are in but ima see if this machine can do real nice on the over unders again today and i might be tailing it tommorow

bustabook · 12-16-09, 05:24 PM

nice analysis lailai..

i can tell you that the sim program does not use trends to make picks, and i'm hoping the laker/milwaukee players do not know these numbers either.. or else we are screwed.

GL

LaiLai · 12-16-09, 05:26 PM

Yeah. Just for your info though ((:
Good Luck!!* ((:
But i do have to remind you.
History does play a part.
Form isn't Everything.
Just ask nuggets,
They will tell u the feeling of not winning at Piston Since 1995,
Yet on Paper. They Are definetly Stronger than piston.

But still,
I wish you good luck

mlb · 12-16-09, 05:39 PM

busta .. so i just talked to my guy about last nights winnings

needless to say he wasnt thrilled .. thanks bro

bustabook · 12-16-09, 05:40 PM

LOL mlb that is awesome.. did you tell him you are getting plays from a guy named "bust-a-book"?? LOLOL

mlb · 12-16-09, 05:43 PM

no i thought i would leave that part out ... haha gl tonight

everynight cant be like last night .. but my goal after a big win? ...

is another above .500 record for the night ... lets do it!!!

lakeshow22 · 12-16-09, 05:56 PM

So................ The lakers under or over? I bet my ass on the under but LaiLai has got me trippin on the pick....

TheChancellor · 12-16-09, 06:01 PM

Originally posted by LaiLai

Yeah. Just for your info though ((:
Good Luck!!* ((:
But i do have to remind you.
History does play a part.
Form isn't Everything.
Just ask nuggets,
They will tell u the feeling of not winning at Piston Since 1995,
Yet on Paper. They Are definetly Stronger than piston.

But still,
I wish you good luck

Good point.

And I've already tailed all the O/U plays. So here's hoping for a winning day. I'll be back here to celebrate with you guys tomorrow morning... hopefully.

bustabook · 12-16-09, 06:04 PM

Lakeshow, the system says play the under.. i don't really like seeing that lailai likes the over, but i am sure that we could find someone else who can give plenty of good reasons to take the under..

i'm not saying to bet one side or the other.. i'm just saying you should not base your play on any ONE person's opinion (mine or lailai's included).

GL

bustabook · 12-16-09, 06:08 PM

btw, thanks for the points mlb.. very nice of you.

lakeshow22 · 12-16-09, 06:08 PM

Good answer. Do you get the %'s from computer software you bought? Or do you have your own system?

bustabook · 12-16-09, 06:14 PM

lake... please read post #1 of the thread.. GL

lakeshow22 · 12-16-09, 06:18 PM

My bad! Thanks GL to you too

Glitch · 12-16-09, 07:07 PM

we're on the opposite sides of a few things but im rootin for you and your system as always.....i wonder how your sim would factor in back to back games like the spurs and lakers have tonight. gl

djiddish98 · 12-16-09, 07:15 PM

I'd rather go with the statistics than trends dating back to 2005. Lakers are not very dynamic on the road, where they've hardly played any games this year (see last night's effort vs. a bad Chicago team - this is a back to back on the road folks). Look for an average pace to keep the points in check. Not going on the under, but I like it better than the over. Who knows? Anything can happen. Statistics miss the mark and trends can be broken.

Good work against Busta.

incomeraise · 12-16-09, 08:16 PM

best of luck today busta, and wayto rebound from ur first losing night

incomeraise · 12-16-09, 10:48 PM

you are having a good day right now, no matter how the late game do....good job

Jshap1515 · 12-16-09, 10:51 PM

Followed your Lakers over and got lucky, but I'll take it!

krazey47409 · 12-16-09, 10:57 PM

this machine is amazing 7-0 ats so far o/u puicks 5-3 so far would be 6-2 if la didnt hit ot im betting with this thing tommorow great work look it over 8-3 yesterday good day to

mlb · 12-16-09, 11:08 PM

busta .. .im going to have to take the blame for my hometown Bucks going to OT in back to back games to screw our unders... damn... allbeit .. another good night brewing!!

.

bustabook · 12-16-09, 11:31 PM

*FINAL EDIT*

Summary, 12/16:

Side plays:
Atlanta (-9.5)
Charlotte (+3.5)
Utah (-8.5)
Milwaukee (+6)
LA Clippers (+1.5)
Washington (+2)
Golden State (+5.5)
Orlando (-11.5)
Cleveland (-6)

O/U plays:
Memphis/Atlanta Under 209
Charlotte/Indiana Over 194
LA Lakers/Milwaukee Under 198.5 (70% play)
Detroit/New Orleans Over 190
LA Clippers/Minnesota Over 191.5
Houston/Denver Under 206.5
Dallas/Oklahoma City Under 193
Washington/Sacramento Under 213
San Antonio/Golden State Under 213.5
Toronto/Orlando Over 208

-----------------
13-6, +6.4 Units

Overall:
104-73 (59%), +23.7 Units
-----------------

Great night tonight, 13-6. I got a good line on the memphis/atlanta under 209 and a bad line on washington (+2), but they should have split anyway so its OK. our "70%" laker/milwaukee Under play was dead nuts... UNTIL they went into OT. that sucks, sorry guys.

anyway, i will be running sims for todays small schedule shortly and get them up soon.

GL

palmer2712 · 12-16-09, 11:39 PM

good job man. I just found this thread, may have to tail tomorrow and beyond

MV · 12-16-09, 11:47 PM

the final score for the rockets was 111-101, so total was 212. still a great night!!

Wind gara · 12-16-09, 11:48 PM

GOOD JOB BRO!!!!!!

i took cavs over
and detroit over in a parley.duh

haveing really shity week. keep hitting 1 game and the 2nd game keeps suxing up

bustabook · 12-16-09, 11:59 PM

MV, you're right.. i'm so tired right now i can barely keep my eyes open.. i'm trying to hold on to see the ends of these late games.

bustabook · 12-17-09, 12:08 AM

Originally posted by Glitch

.....i wonder how your sim would factor in back to back games like the spurs and lakers have tonight. gl

glitch.. the system does account for b2b games.. but only b2b games where travel is involved.

bustabook · 12-17-09, 12:11 AM

thanks palmer.. welcome to the thread!

wind gara.. hopefully things get better for ya.. try just playing some straight bets for a bit, where if you miss one you only lose juice. BOL bud.

Jshap1515 · 12-17-09, 12:13 AM

Great night for you busta. Damn, I need to get enough points to get some freeplay at a book.

bustabook · 12-17-09, 12:18 AM

ok boys.. these late games are not looking good. i'm off to bed.

talk to you guys tomorrow..

mlb · 12-17-09, 12:41 AM

for a second there i thought i screwed myself over .. but when you ran the sims you had the indy charlotte game going under ..now it says over??