NBA picks you don't want to miss!!

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  • DuncHen22
    SBR MVP
    • 11-20-09
    • 1079

    #106
    ADD:

    Philadelphia Flyers (vs Vancouver)

    Vancouver is 1-3 this season after winning their first game in back-to-back games. The only double win they got was after they beat the Leafs who were then winnless after 7 games.

    Buffalo Sabres (vs Montreal)

    Not sure why I didn't put this up before. I liked it from the beginning.

    And thanks for your input, SpreadSniper. I enjoy hearing all sides of an argument and I want to be scared of my picks sometimes because then I am forced to really think about it. I still see this as an offensive game with at least one team in the triple digits, and I don't think the other team will be that far behind. I may just not play this one though.
    Comment
    • keppppp
      SBR High Roller
      • 10-13-09
      • 160

      #107
      "order of stregnth" highest to lowest, i am assuming?
      Comment
      • Sumo
        SBR High Roller
        • 11-13-09
        • 222

        #108
        DuncHen, I have just spotted these odds on my betting site (in NZ). Surely they have screwed up the odds?

        Are these odds mucked up? Surely the $2.04 should be on Florida or Draw?

        FLORIDA PANTHERS @
        WASHINGTON CAPITALS

        Double Chance

        Florida or Draw 1.22

        Washington or Draw 2.04

        Florida or Washington 1.18

        FLORIDA PANTHERS
        WASHINGTON CAPITALS
        Comment
        • dmiles1021
          SBR MVP
          • 09-10-07
          • 1412

          #109
          lol you are nuts if you think the spurs are putting up 100+ vs one of the best defensive teams in the NBA
          Comment
          • Wind gara
            SBR MVP
            • 11-06-09
            • 1515

            #110
            good job on texas tech. dont follow college ball but i just followed your pick ;P

            now boston and spurs need to pick up scoring in 2nd 1/2
            Comment
            • SpreadSniper
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 02-17-09
              • 6125

              #111
              Originally posted by DuncHen22
              ADD:
              I may just not play this one though.
              hopefully not
              Comment
              • Wind gara
                SBR MVP
                • 11-06-09
                • 1515

                #112
                damm that suxs. lost my parley.
                Comment
                • DuncHen22
                  SBR MVP
                  • 11-20-09
                  • 1079

                  #113
                  Yeah, you can't call them all. I was looking for a 100-90 game, totally possible between those 2 teams. I'm happy with my Texas Tech pick though, got the Jets game, but only went 3-3 in NHL. Not a great day but I'll get back there.
                  Comment
                  • DuncHen22
                    SBR MVP
                    • 11-20-09
                    • 1079

                    #114
                    Straight up:
                    ATL
                    CLE
                    DAL
                    UTA
                    LAL
                    NO


                    ATS:
                    NJ +12
                    DAL -1
                    CLE -5
                    UTA-5
                    MIL +10


                    O/U:
                    CHA-NJ: O-181
                    IND-UTA: U-210


                    NHL:
                    CHICAGO
                    NEW JERSEY (NJ is 9-1 in last 10 games vs Tampa)

                    Take your pick
                    Last edited by DuncHen22; 12-04-09, 02:46 AM.
                    Comment
                    • DuncHen22
                      SBR MVP
                      • 11-20-09
                      • 1079

                      #115
                      Add NCAAB Pick:
                      Northern Colorado (+1) (vs Montana State)
                      Comment
                      • williams22
                        Restricted User
                        • 09-19-08
                        • 6134

                        #116
                        Originally posted by DuncHen22
                        Straight up:
                        ATL
                        CLE
                        DAL
                        UTA
                        LAL
                        NO


                        ATS:
                        NJ +12
                        DAL -1
                        CLE -5
                        UTA-5
                        MIL +10


                        O/U:
                        CHA-NJ: O-181
                        IND-UTA: U-210


                        NHL:
                        CHICAGO
                        NEW JERSEY (NJ is 9-1 in last 10 games vs Tampa)

                        Take your pick
                        Dunchen,
                        Help me out here...How come all your ATS picks have spreads that are very different from the actual lines? You aren't really buying 6 or 7 points on games are you?
                        Comment
                        • DuncHen22
                          SBR MVP
                          • 11-20-09
                          • 1079

                          #117
                          Oh yeah, sorry, that should have been more clear. I put the lines up that my system says are safe to take. I don't buy 6-7 points for an individual game but I'll take 3 of those games and make a nice 7pt teaser. Any of those should work. Sorry, I was very tired and rushed when I posted that.

                          Yeah, no NBA games are very good tonight ATS. My NCAAB picks is very good though.
                          Comment
                          • DuncHen22
                            SBR MVP
                            • 11-20-09
                            • 1079

                            #118
                            Add:

                            NO -8 (BUY 2.5)
                            NY +12.5 (BUY 5)
                            Comment
                            • glassjaw
                              SBR High Roller
                              • 11-12-09
                              • 217

                              #119
                              Originally posted by DuncHen22
                              Straight up:
                              Is that meaning Money line or the spread???

                              This maybe is a very stupid question, but I'm not from us and kind of new to your lines.

                              great picks btw.
                              Comment
                              • DuncHen22
                                SBR MVP
                                • 11-20-09
                                • 1079

                                #120
                                Originally posted by glassjaw
                                Is that meaning Money line or the spread??? This maybe is a very stupid question, but I'm not from us and kind of new to your lines. great picks btw.
                                Straight up means I think they will win straight up, or win the game outright, but it makes no guarantees of how many points they will win by. In other words, it is playing the money line. I hope that makes sense, if not let me know. Good Luck!
                                Comment
                                • glassjaw
                                  SBR High Roller
                                  • 11-12-09
                                  • 217

                                  #121
                                  Originally posted by DuncHen22
                                  Straight up means I think they will win straight up, or win the game outright, but it makes no guarantees of how many points they will win by. In other words, it is playing the money line. I hope that makes sense, if not let me know. Good Luck!
                                  I got it. Thanks

                                  Good luck today.
                                  Comment
                                  • rick_213
                                    SBR Sharp
                                    • 11-09-07
                                    • 392

                                    #122
                                    Hey DuncHen, I am not disputing your picks, I am just wondering if you know your overall record on ATS and O/U picks? B/c it seems that you may be around the 60% mark or so?
                                    Comment
                                    • BadBeatBodog
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 06-05-08
                                      • 1006

                                      #123
                                      Record keeping without posting the odds or units won/lost is a pointless endeavor. Right now your record is fraudulent because someone claiming they have hit 70% is great, until they reveal they've been betting lines at -250.
                                      "Things happen for a reason, they say, but I say there's a reason things happen"

                                      "Not everybody talks, but everybody lies / Not everybody lives, but everybody dies"
                                      Comment
                                      • MexicanStallion
                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                        • 09-08-08
                                        • 20429

                                        #124
                                        Any chance of a record with all your different plays? ML, ATS, O/U, Teasers?
                                        Comment
                                        • mwalsh6190
                                          Restricted User
                                          • 11-01-09
                                          • 64

                                          #125
                                          With you on the hockey ones again. Hopefully they hit tonight.
                                          Comment
                                          • DuncHen22
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 11-20-09
                                            • 1079

                                            #126
                                            I wouldn't consider my record "fraudulent" because my record is a win-loss record. If I win a game, it goes in the left side, if I lose it goes on the right side. I understand your concern, however, and it is a valid point. I could sit here and just call every game that has a ML of -600 and say "Look! I'm 98% accurate!" Maybe I'll try to include more info on that.

                                            FYI, in the NBA I am 42-7 ML(no unit records kept, sorry), 32-14 ATS (70%) and 9-5 O/U (64%). I keep my record of all the different categories on my blog and you can find them and more there, http://duncanssportspicks.wordpress.com (I just recently started it so it's still a little disorganized to my liking). I haven't kept track of units or points, but maybe I'll start doing that.

                                            Also keep in mind I am doing this for free. This is not a service, it is just a guy stating his own opinions and judgements. If you think I'm bogus or "fraudulent" you don't have to follow me. I'm just doing this for fun. I could see how it may seem "deceiving" if I was asking for money from you guys but I'm not.

                                            In the meantime I'm just going to keep doing what I do, and I appreciate and welcome your questions and concerns and I'm sorry if what I do is not up to your standards. I already feel like I'm devoting too much time to this.

                                            P.S. I hope that didn't come off too negative or defensive. I don't mind your concerns and I am open to any more questions you may have.
                                            Comment
                                            • BadBeatBodog
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 06-05-08
                                              • 1006

                                              #127
                                              double post
                                              Last edited by BadBeatBodog; 12-04-09, 07:25 PM. Reason: 2x post
                                              "Things happen for a reason, they say, but I say there's a reason things happen"

                                              "Not everybody talks, but everybody lies / Not everybody lives, but everybody dies"
                                              Comment
                                              • BadBeatBodog
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 06-05-08
                                                • 1006

                                                #128
                                                Trust me I'm not here to follow you. I am here to make sure people are not misleading anyone on this forum. It's easy to look at your record and be impressed. However, until you provide odds and/or units won/lost it's not complete. Period.

                                                As for a win goes on the left and a loss on the right, that could not be further from the truth. Most of your bets are nowhere near even odds, so it's more like one on the left for a win and anywhere from 1.5+ on the right for a loss.
                                                "Things happen for a reason, they say, but I say there's a reason things happen"

                                                "Not everybody talks, but everybody lies / Not everybody lives, but everybody dies"
                                                Comment
                                                • vietgamble
                                                  SBR High Roller
                                                  • 12-01-09
                                                  • 115

                                                  #129
                                                  Good luck
                                                  Comment
                                                  • mwalsh6190
                                                    Restricted User
                                                    • 11-01-09
                                                    • 64

                                                    #130
                                                    Loving the picks like always, def not "fraudulent", keep up the good work!
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Wind gara
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 11-06-09
                                                      • 1515

                                                      #131
                                                      buying points getting is getting bit up. but nothing fraudulent. this people dont follow you so dont know what they are talking

                                                      great job bro. your picks have been a big help
                                                      Comment
                                                      • DuncHen22
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 11-20-09
                                                        • 1079

                                                        #132
                                                        Originally posted by mwalsh6190
                                                        Loving the picks like always, def not "fraudulent", keep up the good work!
                                                        Thanks for the support, Walsh!

                                                        I mean, this will be the last time I talk about this, but the deal is I made a system that picks teams and a fairly good rate. I started this thread to share the calls my system makes. I post the picked team and whatever spread my system says is okay to take. If the team beats the spread, then that pick won. If they don't, it lost. My posted record is more of a record of my system, not of how much money I am up. That is why I think it is okay to do it the way I do.

                                                        Furthermore, I just want to reiterate that I get absolutely nothing from this. I have no reason to try and deceive anyone. People can choose for themselves whether or not they like the calls my system is making. People seem to be enjoying them so far so I'll stick with it. Thanks again!
                                                        Comment
                                                        • DuncHen22
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 11-20-09
                                                          • 1079

                                                          #133
                                                          Sorry Wind Gara, I didn't see this post before but I need to give you thanks too! This guy's a great supporter!

                                                          And FYI, I never buy points on heavy favorites just to beef up my record. I only do it to the point where my system allows a play on the game. For example, Bucks tonight had a +4.5 spread but my system only liked the game if the spread was +10 (buy 5.5 pts). And what happened? They lost by 9! That's what I'm talking about!

                                                          Case Study #2: Hornets tonight were favored by 10.5 points over the T-Wolves. My system liked them better if I bought 2.5 points to put them at -8, so I put that down. They won by 9. I rest my case.

                                                          So far tonight my straight up picks are 3-2, ATS 6-2, O/U 2-0, NHL 1-1. That's 12-5 combined.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Wind gara
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 11-06-09
                                                            • 1515

                                                            #134
                                                            damm the north colorado thing isnt looking to good. hope the laker/heat pull up the scoring in the 2nd 1/2 so i can at least get my parley
                                                            Comment
                                                            • MexicanStallion
                                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                                              • 09-08-08
                                                              • 20429

                                                              #135
                                                              Originally posted by DuncHen22
                                                              Sorry Wind Gara, I didn't see this post before but I need to give you thanks too! This guy's a great supporter!

                                                              And FYI, I never buy points on heavy favorites just to beef up my record. I only do it to the point where my system allows a play on the game. For example, Bucks tonight had a +4.5 spread but my system only liked the game if the spread was +10 (buy 5.5 pts). And what happened? They lost by 9! That's what I'm talking about!

                                                              Case Study #2: Hornets tonight were favored by 10.5 points over the T-Wolves. My system liked them better if I bought 2.5 points to put them at -8, so I put that down. They won by 9. I rest my case.

                                                              So far tonight my straight up picks are 3-2, ATS 6-2, O/U 2-0, NHL 1-1. That's 12-5 combined.
                                                              Nice work sir. I think the one poster above suggested units, so people can know how well you are doing if they choose to tail you. Units are more important than a W/L record for gambling. Example your Hawks pick tonight. One loss doesn't hurt, but -750 ML kills.

                                                              Since your system liked the Bucks at +10, was there any way to choose the opposite team since -4.5 would be a steal then? Same deal with the TWolves even though that was a closer margin?

                                                              I wish you the best of luck the rest of the season sir.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • DuncHen22
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 11-20-09
                                                                • 1079

                                                                #136
                                                                N. Colorado game was tough. I wasn't the only one who thought that would be an easy steal though. It just happens sometimes.

                                                                Mexican Stallion, Thank you for your post. You are correct and I understand about the units. I may adopt that in the future as a way of showing how well I'm doing money-wise, but like I said I started this thread to show how well my system does as picking games and nothing else. I understand it would be helpful for everyone to see my units. I don't keep track of them right now but I may start in the future if I can find a very simple way to chart it. Keeping my system up to date takes a lot of time and by the time I finish that, as well as writing on my blog, and posting on here, I am a little burned out on plugging numbers in and writing stuff down.

                                                                And yes, obviously a system that could call the other side instead of using teasers or buys would be much better (although today, for example, I hit my 3-team 7pt teaser which has a payout nearly as good as a straight wager (-115)). Unfortunately for these picks I could not take the other side. I'm always looking to improve my system though but since it's still putting out a good percentage I'm afraid to mess with it too much. I know, though, units are more important than percentages. I'll work on it.

                                                                Lakers-Heat only 6 pts away from being over with 2:07 left. Looks like you're gonna get it Wind Gara! Great Job!
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Wind gara
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 11-06-09
                                                                  • 1515

                                                                  #137
                                                                  woot got it.

                                                                  after getting jesy game over and north colorado wrong(lost a little)

                                                                  then i hit my boston and lakers over(should have taken heat too. everyone kept saying so. even some sites that send picks. heat always play close games. but thaught could be trap. (kind of like alot think boston being -3->5 is a trap
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • DuncHen22
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 11-20-09
                                                                    • 1079

                                                                    #138
                                                                    Okay, you guys want an ATS pick without buying points for tomorrow, well here it is:

                                                                    UTAH (-7.5) (vs MINNESOTA)

                                                                    And some others:
                                                                    Suns-Kings: Under 227

                                                                    Great Straight up Parlay:
                                                                    Orlando
                                                                    Phoenix
                                                                    Utah
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • lingkang
                                                                      SBR Hustler
                                                                      • 12-03-09
                                                                      • 80

                                                                      #139
                                                                      nice pick, thanks a lot, pal.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • Flopa3
                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                        • 11-27-09
                                                                        • 1116

                                                                        #140
                                                                        DuncHen22, I just wanted to say your picks have been great and thanks for shairing.
                                                                        Comment
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