NBA picks you don't want to miss!!

**Time2Score** · 11-27-09, 02:11 PM

Originally posted by DuncHen22

Time2, I think ingem brings up a good point in that this thread will just get too confusing for everyone if a bunch of people start sharing all of their picks.

I want to hear your picks though so how about you start a new thread and put a link on here and I can go there to look? That way we can comment on each other's threads without bogging people down with too many picks.

As for your picks today, they sound good. Are those all straight up, or ATS? My only concern is the Cavs game only because it wasn't strong enough for me to bet and I didn't do any other research on it. IMO, it's a good bet though as long as the Cavs have a no injured starters.

But yeah, lets keep discussing this in your thread. Good Luck!

Sorry about the confusion. Idk about starting my own thread, I'll just not post up picks. Kinda tight on time so I dont think I'd have enough time to go through everyone elses threads and keep up with my own right now. (I'm a college student) But those picks are all ATS, I'm not much of a SU player unless the underdog is getting really nice odds. Shaq is supposed to be playing tomorrow, but hopefully not too long as he slows down the output of Cavs points. And just on a side note ingem i dont think you have much right to criticize my posts as you haven't posted anything productive or helpful to this thread so far. If you're gonna leech and just tail DH then do it, like the "many, many other people" who don't make comments about the discussion between others on this thread.

**DuncHen22** · 11-27-09, 02:34 PM

Dang, I was going to try NCAAF games today but didn't realize they started so early. I was stuck at work and couldn't play.

If it's any consolation, I would have played Rutgers -3 and Cincinnati -20.5. I haven't looked at any other games yet.

**DuncHen22** · 11-27-09, 03:01 PM

Thanks for the explanation, Time2Score. And just to clarify, I love hearing input from anyone and everyone, but yeah I think it does get confusing when people start posting other picks. I don't think Ingem needed to include the hostility in his post though.

Anyway, just some quick adds:

NCAAF:
Nebraska -10 (vs Colorado)
Pitt 0 (vs WVU)
Boise State -9.5 (add 4pts) (vs Nevada)

The Boise spread opened at -10 which would may have been fine but now it's up to -13.5 which is too close for comfort. Nevada is a good team with a strong offense. They are on an 8-0 run after losing their first 3 and have score more than 50 points in 5 of those 8 and more than 30 in all of them. Last year Nevada only lost by 7. I may just steer clear of this game, especially since my NCAAF system is so new and untested.

I like the other 2 picks though.

And if you can find a way to play these:
NBA:
76ers (vs Hawks) +12.5 (added 7pts)
Mavs (vs Pacers) +2.5 (add 4pts)
Celtics (vs Raptors) -3.5 (add 7pts)

I decided I'm going to stop giving individual ratings since they are all very close in terms of my confidence level. I'll just tell you the ones I'm not quite sure about and the ones that are very strong.

**AaronLBF** · 11-27-09, 03:42 PM

Do you have any straight pick for tonight gams nba

**DuncHen22** · 11-27-09, 04:00 PM

Originally posted by AaronLBF

Do you have any straight pick for tonight gams nba

Yeah,

Phoenix -9.5 (vs Minnesota)
Denver -12.5 (vs New York)

Denver actually isn't over the threshold but it is really, really close. Buying half a point would make it playable. I'll probably take it, and as Time2Score pointed out, the Knicks have played 5 games in 7 days and they're going up to 5,000+ feet. My system doesn't automatically take fatigue into account so I'd say that'll put it over the edge.

**AaronLBF** · 11-27-09, 04:06 PM

Thanks dh22.. Bol to both of us

**Sumo** · 11-27-09, 08:48 PM

Atlanta Thrashers losing 4-1 at end of 2nd. Not looking good for my big play.

**Sumo** · 11-27-09, 09:34 PM

What a comeback! 5-4 now to Atlanta. 5 mins to go.

**Sumo** · 11-27-09, 09:46 PM

6-4 Atlanta. I am a happy and relieved man. Cheers DH.

**Time2Score** · 11-27-09, 09:53 PM

Playing Alabama was such a bad idead today and the Cavs too both at the half and game.

played denver at the half too and they getting kicked around...what an unbelievably bad day!! Hope everyone else had better luck than me, time to move onto tomorrow

**DuncHen22** · 11-27-09, 10:31 PM

Originally posted by Sumo

6-4 Atlanta. I am a happy and relieved man. Cheers DH.

I gave up on that game. Then I looked at my account and saw I won it! What a great comeback!

I guess that makes up for Colorado lobbing that hail mary against Nebraska at the end to ruin my spread.

Yeah I'm not having the greatest day today...at least not in NCAAF or NHL. Maybe I should stick mostly to NBA. I'll still provide my other sports picks for you guys but you may want to take it with a grain of salt.

**Time2Score** · 11-27-09, 10:48 PM

I knew I should have taken Memphis, but I was worried that they would play hard but not hard enough against portland. Their defense is just unbelievable this game. DH is there a certain way I should be betting games? Like if i play both 1H and game spreads/OUs? My bets have kinda just been all over the place based on which i feel is a stronger/safer bet.

**DuncHen22** · 11-28-09, 01:28 AM

Originally posted by Time2Score

I knew I should have taken Memphis, but I was worried that they would play hard but not hard enough against portland. Their defense is just unbelievable this game. DH is there a certain way I should be betting games? Like if i play both 1H and game spreads/OUs? My bets have kinda just been all over the place based on which i feel is a stronger/safer bet.

Personally, I stay away from 1H bets and OUs just cuz I don't know a solid way to predict them. If you have a strategy that works, though, then go for it but as far as advice for that area I can't really help. What I have decided to do is fewer teasers and parlays and just put more money on my strongest bets. I think you should only play parlays/teasers if you can still make a profit by winning more than half the games. Ex: say you have 4 teams: play each one straight plus a parlay such that even if you get 3 out of 4 you make a profit, and if you get 2 of 4 you don't lose much.

Tough day for me today but I guess those happen sometimes. I think I was 50% on NBA and a little less than that for NHL and NCAAF. No system is perfect. I'll get the actual numbers on today's record tomorrow but I need to go to bed now. I'll have NCAAF, NHL, and NBA picks tomorrow but I think I'm only going to play NBA and really focus in on the strong games. Unless there is a football or hockey game that really sticks out.

Cheers to everyone!

**Time2Score** · 11-28-09, 09:38 AM

Thanks for the advice DH. I normally play 1H and OUs if they really stick out to me. I'm pretty much only an NBA bettor so I kinda keep watch of certain teams that cover spreads often and go Over or Under alot and play them if somethings fishy. I should really start betting my confident bets at like (3x) or more. I've mostly been just betting straight (1x) with the occasional (2x) when i feel it's a little stronger, but in the end the spread out 1x bets get me and i lose.

**DuncHen22** · 11-28-09, 11:13 AM

So I think these are my records for yesterday (counting points added):
NBA: 5-3
NHL: 2-4
NCAAF: 4-5
Total: 11-12

Just one of those days, I guess. Hopefully today will be better. Again, I'm putting up my NHL and NCAAF picks just to see if it really does work. I don't have enough backtesting on them to warrant huge confidence like in NBA.

Also, I realized it can get confusing as to what picks I made since I throw in a few picks here and there and mix in a lot of writing. So for simplicity and time sake, I'll just list my picks. If you want an explanation just ask and hopefully i can get back to you before gametime.

**DuncHen22** · 11-28-09, 11:20 AM

One thing to remember, I am posting the picks solely based on my system. There could be other factors (i.e. injuries, fatigue) that play against these picks.

I haven't decided what NBA games I'm going to play yet but as of now I like Dallas, and I could see a teaser with the Bobcats, Bucks, and Blazers. I'll get back to you on that though.

*A star denotes a game I am for sure betting on.

NBA:
Mavs vs Cavs: Mavs +6.5
Blazers vs Jazz: Blazers +4.5
Magic vs Bucks: Bucks +10.5 (add 4)
Lakers vs Warriors: Warriors +13.5 (add 6)
Bobcats vs Wizards: Bobcats +7.5 (add 4)

NCAAF:
South Florida +6.5
Houston -30
*Clemson -3.5
Georgia Tech +7.5
New Mexico State +11
Boston College -6
SMU -18.5
S. Mississippi +6
Texas Tech -20.5
UCLA +13
TCU -44.5
*Ole Miss -8
Florida -25
Marshall +1.5

NHL (SU, unless otherwise specified):
*Sabres (ATS, -1.5)
Canucks
Avalanche
Predators
Penguins
Blackhawks
Stars
Flames

**H-Diesel503** · 11-28-09, 12:08 PM

Dunchen, what is your analysis of the Bucks/Magic game? I am picturing a blowout for the Magic. The Bucks are playing on back to back rest, arent playing that well in general (fatigue, working redd back in), and Bogut/Mbah A Moute are out, leaving the middle severely undermanned. In turn, i think that howard/gortat/bass are extremely productive today and own the defensive and offensive boards and shoot a very high percentage. Additionally, with howard and Co. being able to dominate early, i bet that the BUcks will foul them quickly to preclude easy shots. however, this will catch up to them as they will get in foul trouble and Orlando will be in the penalty for much of game shooting high % foul shots. Anyway, GL on the rest of your picks.

**DuncHen22** · 11-28-09, 01:21 PM

Thanks, Diesel! Very insightful. I knew Bogut was out but I didn't know Mbah was too. They got Redd back but obviously he didn't help much yesterday. Keep in mind the Bucks are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games, however I think the BTB rest will hurt them for sure. I think Redd will play better tonight as he's much more rested than the rest of his team so they'll just keep dishing it to him. But yeah, I don't think playing Orlando in this situation would be a bad idea. Both these teams can be so up and down, though, that I'll probably just stay clear of this one. But I think your analysis is right on.

**DuncHen22** · 11-28-09, 06:15 PM

Man, tonight is tough. Partly because I'm nervous after having a not-so-good day yesterday, and partly because of all the back-to-back games. They look inticing on paper but then I start to question it. I think I'm going to try my luck at a 5pt teaser with GS, DAL, and MIL. You might want to just wait for a better day though.

**iMxth3xbossx5000** · 11-28-09, 06:25 PM

I got Dallas +7, Golden State +9, LA Lakers/Golden State Under 223, Portland/Jazz Over 194 - They will $$Cash$$ in

**DuncHen22** · 11-28-09, 06:26 PM

Ah, thank you! Good to hear someone is with me! BOL

P.S. Adding NHL Parlay: Avalanche and Predators

**DuncHen22** · 11-29-09, 01:45 AM

NHL: 6-2
NBA: 2-3
NCAAF: 4-9

So obviously this system doesn't work on NCAAF... at least not on rivalry weekend. Not too concerned about NBA as most of the teams that were picked were on their 2nd consecutive game.

Sunday should be better. I'll put my picks up before the start of the NFL games.

**DuncHen22** · 11-29-09, 11:36 AM

NBA:
DEN -14
PHO ML (-150)
5PT TEASER:
LAL -9
SA -6
ORL -1

NFL:
CIN -13
NYJ -3.5 (though I may buy a point to make it -2.5)
MIN -11

Normally I'd play the Lakers at -14 against the Nets but the Lakers just came off a 32 point win over Golden State yesterday so I had to give them a little cushion.

Good Luck!

**DuncHen22** · 11-29-09, 07:14 PM

NBA picks for tomorrow (11/30):
Bucks -2 (vs Bulls)
Dallas -9.5 (buy 1pt) (vs 76ers)

With the Sixers injuries, it may be safe enough to play Dallas straight but I'm sticking to my system and buying the 1 point.

4-3 for the NFL today. I blame the Falcons loss on them losing their QB and RB though. Oh well.

**DuncHen22** · 11-29-09, 07:33 PM

NBA picks for tomorrow (11/30):
Bucks -2 (vs Bulls)
Dallas -9.5 (buy 1pt) (vs 76ers)

With the Sixers injuries, it may be safe enough to play Dallas straight but I'm sticking to my system and buying the 1 point.

4-3 for the NFL today. I blame the Falcons loss on them losing their QB and RB though. Oh well.

**DuncHen22** · 11-29-09, 09:28 PM

I'm telling you guys... you MUST obey the calls this system makes in the NBA!

Once again, my system only called the Spurs-Sixers game if I bought 3 points to make it -7.5. The Spurs won by 8.

3-0 so far with 3 games left.

**Leto** · 11-29-09, 09:34 PM

Unbelieveable 12-0 run by the Timberwolves at the start of the 3q, and now the wolves lead by 1...

**Wind gara** · 11-29-09, 09:41 PM

bucks should really be -2 or can go to -3 to -3.5? range?

and phily game. dont you think could be a trap? should have been -14-15 the startup spread. too low.

i real like bucks pick....

thinking of parleying with something./

pacers @gs under 229 might be good(i know both score alot but dang that is really high)

over under in chi vs mil game 196(liking the over in this but not much)

also any ideas on nfl game tommorow?
looks like a push which side wins. (prob saints have bit edge)
over looks good but might be too high.

**DuncHen22** · 11-29-09, 11:20 PM

Man, I couldn't believe that Nuggets game. I guess I'm gonna have to though cuz it happened. I'm still shaking my head in disbelief though.

Barring a Nugget-like meltdown from the Lakers I went 4-1 on my NBA games today, and 2-1 on my actual picks (Phoenix game plus the teaser). I'm liking this.

On the Bucks pick, it really should be -2. Any higher at all and my system doesn't like it so much. Especially with the Bucks' injuries I wouldn't really go higher... although they seem to be doing just fine dealing with their shorthandedness now.

I like the Dallas-Sixers matchup though. Sixers undermanned and on a back-to-back road game, on top of being inferior to Dallas already.

The Jazz-Memphis game is on my radar too... my system likes the Jazz at -5 if you want to work that into a teaser somehow.

I like your O/U on pacers-GS... pacers have only score over 100 in 2 of last 8 games, and both teams have scored over 110 once in last 8.

Chicago is a low scoring team. I could see the Bucks winning 94-86 or something like that. I'll probably stay away from that O/U.

As for the NFL game tomorrow: I'm liking the Saints, and I think they are the better team, but I just never know what Belichick is going to bring to the table. If I play anything it will be on the Saints but it won't be much. I'll steer clear of the O/U though. Both teams are capable of scoring a lot but I've seen way too many games with 2 offensive teams end up being way under.

**TallAzCrowe** · 11-30-09, 03:08 AM

Minn had payback in mind after Nugs ran up score last wk & then getting waxed by another West team in Phoenix. I've been following your thread since beginning and playing/hitting 2 of your 5pt tzrs, thanks for the info. As for MNF I like the Pats. Why does NBC pull Pats/Dolphins for Cards/Vikes next wk...hmmm, so they are saying Dolphins out of playoff race and Pats roll-up division, and what happened today, Bills crush Miami leaving the Pats to wrap it up & giving us the Az/Mn game next wk. And now consider the Saints are -7.5 @ Wash & NE is -5.5 v Miami already, leading me to believe Saints lose MNF and crush Wash by 12 or more wk 13.

Enjoying the thread,

**DuncHen22** · 11-30-09, 10:42 AM

I like that logic on the MNF game there! It's just too close for me to play though.

I'm going to try a an O/U system I designed last night on today's games. I don't blame you if you don't take these tonight, I just wanted to test the waters with it. Anyway here it is:

CHI v MIL OVER 195
PHI V DAL OVER 200
IND V GS UNDER 228
MEM V UTA UNDER 197.5

Reminder of my other picks:
MIL -2 (vs CHI)
DAL -9.5 (buy 1pt) (vs PHI)

And 3 NHL games:

WAS (V CAR)
ATL (V FLOR)
BUF (V TOR)

I may parlay all 3 or just 2 of them, depending on how I feel.

**chaseman** · 11-30-09, 11:47 AM

Originally posted by DuncHen22

I like that logic on the MNF game there! It's just too close for me to play though.

I'm going to try a an O/U system I designed last night on today's games. I don't blame you if you don't take these tonight, I just wanted to test the waters with it. Anyway here it is:

CHI v MIL OVER 195
PHI V DAL OVER 200
IND V GS UNDER 228
MEM V UTA UNDER 197.5

Reminder of my other picks:
MIL -2 (vs CHI)
DAL -9.5 (buy 1pt) (vs PHI)

And 3 NHL games:

WAS (V CAR)
ATL (V FLOR)
BUF (V TOR)

I may parlay all 3 or just 2 of them, depending on how I feel.

That may be a typo because I have it at 207 right now. Still looks good.

**Time2Score** · 11-30-09, 03:18 PM

I like your picks today DH. I'm probably gonna play the MIL -2 (4x) and Dallas -10.5 (3x). Probably won't play the OUs since I was planning on going opposite

. Todays OUs are actually pretty unpredictable since all the teams playing are pretty on and off with their scoring except for dallas. GL today to all, let's start this week off strong!!

**DuncHen22** · 11-30-09, 03:31 PM

Thanks Chaseman! Yeah, I was looking at Memphis' previous o/u. But I still like the under on 207. GL!

**TallAzCrowe** · 11-30-09, 04:07 PM

Such a shame my mighty Maple Leafs aren't so mighty any more, 80 million on D and still giving up goals like a civ. I'm gonna Rd Robin the NHL pks tonight since I dont like to wager on my team but want to stick w/ your sys. I also put 100 on NE ML tonight trusting in my NBC flex switch up theory and seeing next wks lines for both tms are already posted. Also add in now that Az lost to Tenn ystrdy and SF beat Jax, Az now needs to win this game more now and how fitting it got switched to primetime slot a wk in advance. And w/o getting to ahead of myself that leads up to the Monday Night showdown in 2wks vs SF, which is another great wagering scenario in itself. Best of luck gentlemen, see ya after the gms are complete.