NBA picks you don't want to miss!!

**LaiLai** · 12-10-09, 02:11 PM

Care to explain ur picks for orlando under instead of boston??"

**DuncHen22** · 12-10-09, 02:43 PM

Originally posted by jaymac82980

my book is already at 194.5 for boston. i'm on the fence here. looks like it's rising though. still see some value here?

I took it at 195 but wouldn't go higher than that. It's a tough call, but ultimately I just went with my system. It's not always right though.

NCAAB pick:
MONTANA (PK) (VS LOYOLA-MARYMOUNT)
I wouldn't take more than -1 for Montana, although I've seen some places having Montana at +1.

Other picks (already listed):
BOSTON -7.5 (VS WAS)
BOS-WAS OVER 193
UTA-ORL UNDER 202

Check my blog for my reasoning. If you disagree, I'd love to hear your argument. I'm not always right so it's nice to hear other people's perspectives to help minimize my loses in the future.

**joanapoker** · 12-10-09, 02:45 PM

Originally posted by DuncHen22

If you notice, I changed mind mind again back to OVER 193 for the Boston-Washington game.
I also like this one:

ORL-UTAH UNDER 202

I'm looking through the NCAAB picks now.

I love that pick!
But I'm playing that for the 1st H. at UNDER 102.5

gl

**jaymac82980** · 12-10-09, 02:50 PM

love to see joanapoker on these picks too. i know your hot stuff with the totals!

plays...
celts -7
over 194.5 (celts/wiz)
also teased celts over/orlando under...o 190.5/u 205.5
parlayed celts -7/over 194.5

looking at a couple more plays to finish off, i lean orlando here, they've really been killing the spread. i think the denver/detroit total is low, but i'm not sure if i'll take it or not.

**DuncHen22** · 12-10-09, 07:51 PM

Add:
COLORADO-CSU OVER 137

**jaymac82980** · 12-10-09, 09:23 PM

Originally posted by DuncHen22

I took it at 195 but wouldn't go higher than that. It's a tough call, but ultimately I just went with my system. It's not always right though.

NCAAB pick:
MONTANA (PK) (VS LOYOLA-MARYMOUNT)
I wouldn't take more than -1 for Montana, although I've seen some places having Montana at +1.

Other picks (already listed):
BOSTON -7.5 (VS WAS)
BOS-WAS OVER 193
UTA-ORL UNDER 202

Check my blog for my reasoning. If you disagree, I'd love to hear your argument. I'm not always right so it's nice to hear other people's perspectives to help minimize my loses in the future.

if i had a good argument i'd let you know, but your picks look to be money lately. i didnt agree on houston last night, but we both know i lost and you won. i bet cavs solely on the fact that they are 4-1 ATS after losing. but you called that win easily. congrats to you. i like your site too pal! it's nice to see a small right up added to what your system is calling.

you're hot right now, keep it up.

**sonnybaby** · 12-10-09, 10:53 PM

good looks thats what it is

**DuncHen22** · 12-11-09, 02:14 AM

Thanks, JayMac! I like doing the write-up because it helps others (and me) understand better why the pick I'm taking is good. If I can't do a solid write up, then I'll throw out the pick, even if my system is calling it.

Sorry about the Celtics pick tonight though... I thought I had it at the half when they were up 14 but then they blew it

. I'm glad I recalled my over pick for that game though. That really saved the night. Under for the Magic-Jazz game was no good too. I probably should have just stayed away from that one but it was too strong in my system to pass it up. I can always learn from my mistakes.

3-2 overall though, which is better than losing money. I was 2-0 on my college hoops picks with Montana winning and the Colorado teams going over the total. Tons of games tomorrow so my picks will have to wait.

**WhatAboutMeBitch** · 12-11-09, 02:32 AM

keep it up

**Wind gara** · 12-11-09, 02:59 AM

keep up the good work

**joanapoker** · 12-11-09, 07:54 AM

good work on NCAAB! amazing in fact!

cheers!

UNDER at utah

**olivknob** · 12-11-09, 05:27 PM

Hey DuncHen.
Im considering GS +5 and Suns -3 today. What do you think about that ?
Maybe you have something you think is better?

**DuncHen22** · 12-11-09, 06:08 PM

Originally posted by olivknob

Hey DuncHen.
Im considering GS +5 and Suns -3 today. What do you think about that ?
Maybe you have something you think is better?

My system isn't calling anything on those games, but that doesn't mean they aren't good. It just means I didn't even look into them (the first test for my picks is my system. If they pass that, then I do a little more research). Here are my NBA picks for tonight:

ATL -4 (vs TOR)
OKC +2 (vs MEM)
CHA +7.5 (vs SA)
OKC-MEM OVER 199

Some of those bets are stronger than others. Visit my blog (link below) to see my reasoning.

**Sumo** · 12-11-09, 06:27 PM

Thanks DH. I really like the Hawks -4 and Thunder +2 picks. Was big on them before you posted actaully. Had a rough trot lately and am hoping these will get me back up.

**DuncHen22** · 12-11-09, 07:11 PM

Originally posted by Sumo

Thanks DH. I really like the Hawks -4 and Thunder +2 picks. Was big on them before you posted actaully. Had a rough trot lately and am hoping these will get me back up.

I hope you hit those tonight too!

GL!

Here's my NCAAB pick for tonight:
WKU-VANDY UNDER 139.5

**DuncHen22** · 12-12-09, 12:08 AM

ATL -4 (vs TOR) WIN
OKC +2 (vs MEM) WIN
CHA +7.5 (vs SA) LOSS
OKC-MEM OVER 199 LOSS
WKU-VANDY UNDER 139.5 LOSS

Nobody's perfect. We'll get 'em tomorrow.

MWALSH (and any other NHL fans)! Hopefully you're still around. I'm working on an NHL system and it's looking promising right now. From Dec 8th through today it's 8-3 and +8.0 points! And it doesn't rely on parlays or teasers. I'll let you know if/when I get it up and running. I'll probably start an NHL thread just so this thread doesn't get too bogged down. I'll put a link up here if I do that though.

**DuncHen22** · 12-12-09, 02:15 AM

Kentucky-indiana under 144

**Sumo** · 12-12-09, 02:18 AM

Good stuff DH. I actually only played on ATL, OKC and a small wager on the College game, so 2-1 myself, but the big ones were the first two. Got them in a parlay too. Looking forward to your NHL picks. Will your NHL thread be on the NHL handicapping forum or will you post on this one (NBA)? Out of interest, what part of the country are you situated in?

**DuncHen22** · 12-12-09, 03:35 AM

Sumo,

Great job on weeding out two of my losses! I just remembered you are a big NHL fan too (your pic kinda gives that away). I'll start a new thread in the NHL handicapping page but when I do that I'll post a link here so anyone who wants to find it doesn't have to go searching for it. And to answer your question, I live in Montana.

**DuncHen22** · 12-12-09, 03:17 PM

DETROIT -6 (VS GOLDEN ST)
DET-GS UNDER 205.5 (IF WIN BET)

DAL-CHA OVER 189
SAC -7.5 (VS MIN)
BOSTON -10 (VS CHICAGO)

Sorry about my NCAAB pick. These should be better.

**DuncHen22** · 12-12-09, 04:47 PM

Ncaab add:

col st -5 (vs montana)

**Sumo** · 12-13-09, 12:58 AM

Great picking today DH. I wish I had followed all. I had a 6 pronged parlay teaser and like usual the lowest odds is the one that kills it for me. Admittedly i got lucky on the two overs (as they went into O/T), but was very disappointed with the Minnesota defense that made the total a 20 point blowout.

Selection: : Over (190.0) @ 1.90 - Banker Win
Event: NBA Games, PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS @ MILWAUKEE BUCKS
Market: Game Total, 13 Dec 2009 14:37
Selection: : DETROIT PISTONS @ 1.43 Win
Event: NBA Games, GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS @ DETROIT PISTONS
Market: Head to Head, 13 Dec 2009 13:37
Selection: : DALLAS MAVERICKS @ 1.30 Win
Event: NBA Games, CHARLOTTE BOBCATS @ DALLAS MAVERICKS
Market: Head to Head, 13 Dec 2009 14:37
Selection: : MILWAUKEE BUCKS @ 1.59 Win
Event: NBA Games, PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS @ MILWAUKEE BUCKS
Market: Head to Head, 13 Dec 2009 14:37
Selection: : MINNESOTA T WOLVES (+15.5) @ 1.22 Lose
Event: NBA Games, MINNESOTA T WOLVES @ SACRAMENTO KINGS
Market: PYOL, 13 Dec 2009 16:07
Selection: : Over (188.5) @ 1.90 Win
Event: NBA Games, CHARLOTTE BOBCATS @ DALLAS MAVERICKS
Market: Game Total, 13 Dec 2009 14:37

**DuncHen22** · 12-13-09, 02:07 AM

DETROIT -6 (VS GOLDEN ST) WIN
DET-GS UNDER 205.5 (IF WIN BET) WIN
DAL-CHA OVER 189 WIN
SAC -7.5 (VS MIN) WIN
BOSTON -10 (VS CHICAGO) WIN

Sorry about my NCAAB picks, they didn't do so well. 5-0 in NBA though!! I think I'll be stick to that mostly.

Sumo, just FYI, one of my rules is don't bet on double digit spreads. My only exception is I'll sometimes play a 10, but no more than that. Even if you're betting the underdog, the reason the spread is so big is because they are very overmatched and thus run the risk of being blown out. On the flip side, the favorite has no incentive to beat a +15 team by more than 15 points so if it's in a position to win by 10-12 they'll take that every time.

Same with football, I try to stay within 1 score spreads (no more than 7) because a team is more likely to try and score to push the other team out of a one possession reach (if its the favorite). Too many times have I played a team with a -13 spread and watched them run out the clock since they were already up by 10. Just kills.

Anyway, great calls on your other picks though! I had the Blazers game over too but didn't pull the trigger on it, all the injuries of both teams made me nervous.

My NHL system went 4-3 today and -0.25 units. Not good but not terrible either. I'm still 14-6 over the last 4 days and up +5.9 (fake) units with it so I'm not giving up on it. It could have been an off day. I'll keep you posted on it.

**incomeraise** · 12-13-09, 03:27 AM

good job duncan..
there are so many good cappers here....with their system...its kinda hard to know who to follow or tail nowadays, maybe tail all the good ones lol, just feel like the units would be 2 small, and there will be 2 many plays then...but i like what i am seeing i must admit

**Sumo** · 12-13-09, 03:51 AM

Cheers DH, yeah I had a 'hot' tip on Minnesota +7.5 and thought i'd buy 8 points to beef it up a bit. they came through for me against the Lakers yesterday, but couldn't back it up today. Guttered as that 6-lef parlay was paying 13/1. To be fair I was lucky in both the Bucks and the Mavs game with the O/T's so can't really complain. I'm still pretty new to this. Congrats on your 5/5 NBA today. Great stuff. I chucked Dirk up on my avatar for keeping me in the game in the Mavs game, he nailed those shots good.

**DuncHen22** · 12-13-09, 04:56 AM

Originally posted by Sumo

Cheers DH, yeah I had a 'hot' tip on Minnesota +7.5 and thought i'd buy 8 points to beef it up a bit. they came through for me against the Lakers yesterday, but couldn't back it up today. Guttered as that 6-lef parlay was paying 13/1. To be fair I was lucky in both the Bucks and the Mavs game with the O/T's so can't really complain. I'm still pretty new to this. Congrats on your 5/5 NBA today. Great stuff. I chucked Dirk up on my avatar for keeping me in the game in the Mavs game, he nailed those shots good.

I like the pic, I must say. He certainly came through for us!

**bustabook** · 12-13-09, 04:58 AM

wow didn't even see that, nice work dunc... 5-0 is always nice for the bankroll.

**DuncHen22** · 12-13-09, 05:37 AM

Thanks, Bustabook!

HOUSTON -1.5 (VS TORONTO)

**MrSink** · 12-13-09, 08:31 AM

Hi guys!
How about toronto +1.5 today?

**joanapoker** · 12-13-09, 08:52 AM

Great night yesterday Dunch! good work!

I'm on houston too for today!!

**joanapoker** · 12-13-09, 08:52 AM

and on the OVER 203

**Leto** · 12-13-09, 11:43 AM

Originally posted by DuncHen22

DETROIT -6 (VS GOLDEN ST) WIN
DET-GS UNDER 205.5 (IF WIN BET) WIN
DAL-CHA OVER 189 WIN
SAC -7.5 (VS MIN) WIN
BOSTON -10 (VS CHICAGO) WIN

**mdemps9190** · 12-13-09, 11:52 AM

insane night dunchen..nice call

**Mybologne** · 12-13-09, 12:23 PM

Tor 1H +1

**DuncHen22** · 12-13-09, 01:56 PM

OKC +3 (vs CLE)
OKC-CLE OVER 191