$100 to $500 by christmas to pay for my tattoo

[mp5070]

Good Win, yesterday!

Got any Plays, today?

Thanks.

[ctof]

tonights a tough night to call. the only strong bet tonight i feel is phx at -6. i dont know if that line changed but thats what i got it at this morning. the over in that game is 217 and as a rule i always take the under when it hits 215 plus, but with chris paul out the past 2 games the hornets have been putting up and allowing around 110. so im taking the parlay of the suns -6 and the OVER. i figure if the suns cover they are gonna do it with offense and by scoring 120, not cause they played real defense and stopped the hornets. i also played the lakers -9. gasol is coming back tonight and the bulls are on a long road trip. i also picked the spurs to cover -5, but thats before i knew ginobili and parker were out. so i would stay away from that game if i were you. its too unpredictable. sometimes the spurs shoots lights out and really score when parker is out and then sometimes they implode and turn into a terrible team. the jazz are also unpreditable. i was very confident in the over 197 but once again the spurs injuries are putting that in doubt. the jazz allow a TON of points on the road, and the spurs are not the same ol defensive team they used to be, so i would of expected this game to end up around 210. with parker/manu out i just dont know???? so the only solid plays i would go with are phx -6 and lakers -9....if the phx game is up to -9 i would stay away from it. i dont feel good about tonight and i know i made too many plays on too few games, but oh well. ill have to come back to earth after yesterday...ill post my final plays in a little bit.

[maseda17]

That 217 # is a beast. I took the under at 214 1/2. I like your Lakers pick though, and that Suns number has jumped to -8 so you are in good shape at -6. If you have any bankroll left you might want to consider NFL and that Carolina -3. I think that is a no brainer. Just trying to help you get that tat work man. GL

[ctof]

That 217 # is a beast. I took the under at 214 1/2. I like your Lakers pick though, and that Suns number has jumped to -8 so you are in good shape at -6. If you have any bankroll left you might want to consider NFL and that Carolina -3. I think that is a no brainer. Just trying to help you get that tat work man. GL

yea, 217 is high. and like i said, 215 is pretty much an autobet UNDER. but these past 2 games of scoring 121-98 (@ hawks: expected) and 110-102 (clippers!!!) without chris paul just give me a gut feeling they are trying to play a certain kind of game without him, and peja has been shooting really well lately too. its a tough bet that my instinct is telling me to go against my normal strategy, but i wouldnt at all be surprised to see it under. s far as the spurs go, teams play no defense on the 2nd part of a back to back. they like to run and take quick jumpers, its easier to jack up easy shots early in the clock rather than run and offense. its more tiring to play a half court game and set screens and cut around the basket. so i still think that OVER 197 is a safe bet since both teams are coming off games last night....ill bet on that carolina game, just cause you dropped it on me. i dont know shit about betting on the nfl, so lets hope delhomme doesnt start throwing picks again!!!!

[ctof]

parlay: PHX -6 & PHX/NO over 217.5....$10
teaser: PHX -2 & LA -4.5....$25
parlay: utah/SA over 197.5 & SA -5....$10 (dont hold this one against me, didnt know manu and parker were out)
PHX -7.5....$10
utah/SA over 197.5....$10
lakers/bulls under 196....$10
laker 1Q -3...$10
lakers 3Q -2.5....$10


a little too much on 3 games...but what are you gonn do? all bets are in, gotta see how it all plays out!!! GL to everyone who stops on thru

[ctof]

WOOOOOOO. tough day. thats what happens when you push too hard for too many bets out of too few games. this whole thing is still learning process for me....ill count up my embarrassings later

[MexicanStallion]

Good luck with your goal sir

[ctof]

so before i count up my wins and losses (which totalled -$53) im gonna put some of my logic out there for why i make my picks the way i do. not that its better or worse than others, this is just what has worked for me in the past and as long as i dont try to hard like i did last night i normally do well.
#1...autobet the UNDER on anything over 215, its just too high. it requires both teams to make shots ALL game long. i didnt do it last night cause i got too cute and thought too much and it cost me
#2...i UNDER a game between 2 BAD teams as long as its around 195 or lower. never trust 2 bad teams to BOTH play up to par for the entire game. one of the teams is gonna have a terrible quarter and screw it up. and when i say bad teams i mean like the knicks, teams that can embarrass themselves on any given night
#3...bet the UNDER when you have a really good defensive team at home VS an average team who relies on offense. the defensive team will be able to control the pace of the game and slow it down, not allowing the inferior offensive team to get going and score. this does not work vic-e-versa with good offensive team vs a bad team as the bad team wont know what to do with all those extra possessions and wont be able to convert them into buckets consistently.
#4....parlays: this is where i make most of my money....single game parlays. offensive teams cover the spread by scoring and defensive teams will cover by stopping the other team from scoring. teams like portland will cover the spread in their games by holding their opponent to 75-90pts and only scoring 85-100 themselves. so odds are if they cover (which means they play better than expected, then the score will go under cause they most likely played better than expected defense). the same is true for offensive teams with the hawks. they win with offense, so if they cover its most likely cause they made their shots and drove the score of the game up. so take offensive teams to cover and the over. take defensive teams to cover and the under...obviously this is not an autobet, but its a trend. like tonight, the rockets are gonna try and run with the hawks cause they cant play real defense and the hawks are at home where they score 115 a game. the over/under is 206. i would put that game at 212, so i am taking the hawks to cover and the OVER.
#5....good teams: (celtics, lakers) win the first and third quarters more than any other quarter. so bet them to cover those quarters. for some reason the nuggs are total 2nd quarter teams, they did it last year and they are doing it this year. their 2Q differential is BY FAR the highest in the league and higher than any other of their quarters. i bet heavily on the nuggs to cover 2Q



well thats my 6AM rant, who knows if anyones gonna read it. but there you go

[maseda17]

Sorry about the Carolina advice. That said, if they played again tonight I think it was the right play.

[iceminers26]

good luck with your goal bud

i will add, i would be cautious of auto-betting the under on any line 215 and up, lines this high are set for a reason. if you ever see a line ridiculously high, like say 235, its a good play to play the over. i think last year pho/gs had a 240 line and it player over.

[Jerm3462]

If you have any bankroll left you might want to consider NFL and that Carolina -3. I think that is a no brainer. Just trying to help you get that tat work man. GL

Never bet against Ricky Williams.

[ctof]

shit...i didnt post my winnings and losings from last night. well it ended up being -$53. so it brought my back down to 117. which is still $17 in the black...here are tonights plays

heat/raptors OVER 201
grizz/76ers UNDER 197
rockets/hawks OVER 205.5
wizards +2.5
kings/mavs OVER 201
nuggs/clippers UNDER 208
blazers -8.5
parlays:
blazers -8.5 & blazers/warriors UNDER 206
hawks -7 & hawks/rockets OVER 205.5
kings +11.5 & kings/dallas OVER 201
bucks -3 & bucks/bobcats UNDER 182

all plays are $10

[ctof]

i won $2 in last nights bets...ill post the winnings and losses later. but here are tonights bets

parlays:
philly/clev OVER 191 & cavs -11
chi/den OVER 208 $ den -8
sac/houst OVER 203 & sac +11
atl/NO OVER 203 & NO +4
mil/memph UNDER 196 & mil ML

strait bets:
atl/NO OVER 203
den/chi OVER 208
sac/houst OVER 203

[ctof]

heat/raptors OVER 201...win
grizz/76ers UNDER 197...lose
rockets/hawks OVER 205.5...win
wizards +2.5...lose
kings/mavs OVER 201...win
nuggs/clippers UNDER 208...win
blazers -8.5...lose
parlays:
blazers -8.5 & blazers/warriors UNDER 206...lose
hawks -7 & hawks/rockets OVER 205.5...lose
kings +11.5 & kings/dallas OVER 201...win
bucks -3 & bucks/bobcats UNDER 182...lose


starting bankroll for the day $117
days total +$2
final -/+ = + $19

[ctof]

philly/clev OVER 191 & cavs -11...lose
chi/den OVER 208 $ den -8...lose
sac/houst OVER 203 & sac +11...win
atl/NO OVER 203 & NO +4...lose
mil/memph UNDER 196 & mil ML...lose

strait bets:
atl/NO OVER 203...lose
den/chi OVER 208...lose
sac/houst OVER 203...win

-$26 for the day
$92 final bankroll
-$8 tota