Parlay bet question

uanl · 11-12-09, 02:21 PM

Originally posted by Waiting4Godot

Is this a "legal bet" or something the books frown on:

Place two parlays:
Cavs +1 and the Over
Cavs +1 and the Under

A bet of $10 on either would pay $26.45 -- so, assuming the Cavs+1 wins, it's sure profit of $16.45 (right?).. better than just the Cavs+1 alone.

(numbers from BookMaker)

why would you do that? you are still going to be risking 20 bux on the cavs...if you did that without the parlays, you would win like 18 bux and change...but if you do it with the parlays, you win a dollar and change less..not a big difference, but if they ask me do you want 18 dollars or do you want 16.50..ill take the 18 lol ... if the heat cover, you lose both parlays and if you bet 20 singled on cavs you still lose the same amount...but if the cavs cover, you win more if you single it...why do the parlays??

jsmithj88 · 11-12-09, 02:22 PM

just bet the cavs ML

Waiting4Godot · 11-12-09, 02:26 PM

Thanks. I knew I was looking at something wrong. In my head I was thinking the Cavs alone would just be a $10 bet... but it's really $20. I never said the bet made sense!

Razz_Donkey · 11-12-09, 02:26 PM

Never heard of books frowning on these. Its not a smart bet though, the math should show you that right away. Lets say you're flipping for the Cavs +1 as a straight bet (as we will assume that long term the lines are going to be 50/50):

50% of the time you hit, 50% you miss theoretically. You lose the juice, on a $11 to win 10 you are -$1
With the parlay, you bet $20 each time. 50% of the time you are -$20. The other 50% you are +$16.45. Your average take is -$3.55.

The books should welcome in nearly all parlays as they are inherently -ev. The only exception that I have found is a statistical correlation between a side and a total. Even they may not be +ev but merely closer to neutral.

SportsTerminator · 11-12-09, 02:41 PM

I like how you think waiting4Godot but in the long run you'll end up losing more $juice$.

SportsTerminator · 11-12-09, 02:42 PM

...As Razz mentioned (we so need that edit button back).

Razz_Donkey · 11-12-09, 02:53 PM

By the way Godot, I like the name. Any good productions of the play still being done in the States?

Waiting4Godot · 11-12-09, 03:09 PM

Razz_Donkey, thanks and.. I've no idea. In all honestly, I've never seen it live. Just the version at the below link. Caught it on TV one day, had no idea what it was.. but it looked 'interesting', so I watched and realized once it was how enthralled I was!

I'm not sure I want to see it live.. unless it was the same people as the video - if that makes any sense.

Beckett on Film | Waiting for Godot

http://www.beckettonfilm.com/plays/waitingforgodot/synopsis.html

Razz_Donkey · 11-12-09, 03:19 PM

Appreciate the link, its a very mesmerizing story. I've seen the version you referenced on film, but always wanted to see a live version one day. Seems like they are hard to find though...

Know what you mean as well, part of me is worried that a new cast would spoil it, but thats true of every play.

Good luck with your bets tonight!