Sixers get fade nod, Hawks a good follow
The Philadelphia 76ers have a lot of dough tied up in power forward Elton Brand and center Samuel Dalembert, and so far the return on investment has not met expectations making the Sixers (2-6 ATS) a solid fade among the teams in the NBA's Eastern Conference. The flip side to the 76ers are the Atlanta Hawks who have gotten off to a 6-2 straight up mark while cashing in seven of their eight games to date.
We ask the question every year: Has the Eastern Conference finally caught up to the West? The answer may have finally changed.
As we approach the 10-game mark of the NBA season, there are six teams in the East and six in the West with winning records. Parity has arrived!
Yeah, sure. It’s very early in the season, and as any stathead will tell you, beware of small sample sizes. But we have seen enough Eastern action to make a couple of choice fade and follow picks.
Fade: Philadelphia 76ers (4-4 SU, 2-6 ATS)
The 76ers paid $80 million for five years of power forward Elton Brand. They should have budgeted for diminishing marginal returns. Brand has seen his production dwindle since joining the Sixers; he missed over 50 games last year with a shoulder injury, and this year he’s scoring just 13.2 points per 36 minutes, down from 19.2 points three years ago in his last full season with the Los Angeles Clippers.
The 76ers also paid $64 million for six years of center Samuel Dalembert. Both players, by the way, were signed by Billy King, who was replaced as general manager in December 2007. At least Dalembert has stayed healthy, playing the full 82 games each of the past three seasons.
But the Haitian-Canadian has gone from useful to sub-par, judging by his Player Efficiency Rating (15.0 is the indexed average):
2006-07: 16.11 PER
2007-08: 15.52 PER
2008-09: 13.22 PER
2009-10: 9.98 PER
Having both Brand and Dalembert on the court at the same time makes little sense in new coach Eddie Jordan’s Princeton-style offense. It’s important to have one capable post player, but everyone else has to be both agile and a strong ball-handler.
Dalembert can move, but he’s got fingers made of pure creamery butter. He’s committing turnovers on 29.3 percent of his plays this year; that number should regress closer to last year’s 18.8 percent, but that’s already not very good.
Brand and Dalembert may be starting games, but they’re not finishing. It’s only a matter of time before power forward Marreese Speights (22.3 points per 36 minutes) is given a starting job in Philly. Speights is one of several promising young players who have come onto the scene in the post-Allen Iverson Era.
Another is point guard Louis Williams, who got his turn in the starting lineup in place of the departed Andre Miller. Williams (19.41 PER) is the right man to run the Princeton, but the Sixers have limited depth in the backcourt. It’s hard to cover spreads without quality reserves.
Follow: Atlanta Hawks (6-2 SU, 7-1 ATS)
Not going out on a limb here, are we? There are other teams in the East who have a chance to surprise – I’m thinking about the Washington Wizards and New York Knicks if and when they get healthy – but for now, the Hawks have the betting value.
From a popularity perspective, the Hawks are trailing Orlando and Miami in their own division, not to mention the Cavs and Celtics. Atlanta’s small-market status protects its ability to keep beating the betting odds.
The Hawks have been on the rise for a few years now, rising from the ashes of a horrible front-office situation that buried the franchise’s reputation. But things really started taking off when GM Billy Knight resigned his post in May 2008 after losing a power struggle.
New GM Rick Sund (purged by the Sonics in their move to Oklahoma City) landed guard Jamal Crawford from Golden State this summer for the low, low price of guards Speedy Claxton and Acie Law. As a sixth man, Crawford is the most productive scorer on the Hawks with 21.9 points per 36 minutes. Previous Sund acquisition Maurice Evans is good for 16.8 points per 36 minutes. This is the kind of backcourt depth that Philadelphia lacks – but Atlanta supporters can take it to the bank.
The Philadelphia 76ers have a lot of dough tied up in power forward Elton Brand and center Samuel Dalembert, and so far the return on investment has not met expectations making the Sixers (2-6 ATS) a solid fade among the teams in the NBA's Eastern Conference. The flip side to the 76ers are the Atlanta Hawks who have gotten off to a 6-2 straight up mark while cashing in seven of their eight games to date.
We ask the question every year: Has the Eastern Conference finally caught up to the West? The answer may have finally changed.
As we approach the 10-game mark of the NBA season, there are six teams in the East and six in the West with winning records. Parity has arrived!
Yeah, sure. It’s very early in the season, and as any stathead will tell you, beware of small sample sizes. But we have seen enough Eastern action to make a couple of choice fade and follow picks.
Fade: Philadelphia 76ers (4-4 SU, 2-6 ATS)
The 76ers paid $80 million for five years of power forward Elton Brand. They should have budgeted for diminishing marginal returns. Brand has seen his production dwindle since joining the Sixers; he missed over 50 games last year with a shoulder injury, and this year he’s scoring just 13.2 points per 36 minutes, down from 19.2 points three years ago in his last full season with the Los Angeles Clippers.
The 76ers also paid $64 million for six years of center Samuel Dalembert. Both players, by the way, were signed by Billy King, who was replaced as general manager in December 2007. At least Dalembert has stayed healthy, playing the full 82 games each of the past three seasons.
But the Haitian-Canadian has gone from useful to sub-par, judging by his Player Efficiency Rating (15.0 is the indexed average):
2006-07: 16.11 PER
2007-08: 15.52 PER
2008-09: 13.22 PER
2009-10: 9.98 PER
Having both Brand and Dalembert on the court at the same time makes little sense in new coach Eddie Jordan’s Princeton-style offense. It’s important to have one capable post player, but everyone else has to be both agile and a strong ball-handler.
Dalembert can move, but he’s got fingers made of pure creamery butter. He’s committing turnovers on 29.3 percent of his plays this year; that number should regress closer to last year’s 18.8 percent, but that’s already not very good.
Brand and Dalembert may be starting games, but they’re not finishing. It’s only a matter of time before power forward Marreese Speights (22.3 points per 36 minutes) is given a starting job in Philly. Speights is one of several promising young players who have come onto the scene in the post-Allen Iverson Era.
Another is point guard Louis Williams, who got his turn in the starting lineup in place of the departed Andre Miller. Williams (19.41 PER) is the right man to run the Princeton, but the Sixers have limited depth in the backcourt. It’s hard to cover spreads without quality reserves.
Follow: Atlanta Hawks (6-2 SU, 7-1 ATS)
Not going out on a limb here, are we? There are other teams in the East who have a chance to surprise – I’m thinking about the Washington Wizards and New York Knicks if and when they get healthy – but for now, the Hawks have the betting value.
From a popularity perspective, the Hawks are trailing Orlando and Miami in their own division, not to mention the Cavs and Celtics. Atlanta’s small-market status protects its ability to keep beating the betting odds.
The Hawks have been on the rise for a few years now, rising from the ashes of a horrible front-office situation that buried the franchise’s reputation. But things really started taking off when GM Billy Knight resigned his post in May 2008 after losing a power struggle.
New GM Rick Sund (purged by the Sonics in their move to Oklahoma City) landed guard Jamal Crawford from Golden State this summer for the low, low price of guards Speedy Claxton and Acie Law. As a sixth man, Crawford is the most productive scorer on the Hawks with 21.9 points per 36 minutes. Previous Sund acquisition Maurice Evans is good for 16.8 points per 36 minutes. This is the kind of backcourt depth that Philadelphia lacks – but Atlanta supporters can take it to the bank.