Minnesota Timberwolves cash as big dogs in Portland
Game Time: Sunday, November 8, 2009 09:05 PM ET
By: "Reload" Joe Freda | reload.mysbrforum.com
The Portland Trail Blazers are overvalued tonight after the whole country watched them defeat the San Antonio Spurs in a wire-to-wire performance on ESPN Friday night. However, the Blazers caught the Spurs on the back end of a back-to-back and Portland is still a nondescript 3-3 this season. Meanwhile, the Timberwolves covered both meetings here in Portland last year and they have already covered some big spreads this year.
The Sunday night slate in the NBA contains three Western Conference battles and some overvalued favorites taking the court. One matchup in Portland has the Trail Blazers hosting the Minnesota Timberwolves, and looks like a mismatch on paper, but that does not have to stop you from cashing at your sportsbook with some double digit underdog points here.
With NFL football action dominating most of the sports gambling stage on Sundays, bookmakers are often paying less attention to NBA basketball. Soon college hoops will be on the board every weekend as well and as the betting opportunities become greater, the lines posted can get weaker during this part of the year.
If you end up losing some football bets during the afternoon, remember the NBA is there to get you bailed out if you put the right effort into spotting some lines with value.
Tonight’s matchup between Portland and Minnesota is a good example of how a line has likely been inflated a few points to increase the chances of some Vegas tourists blindly throwing their money into the cage on a losing wager before heading back home.
It will not be enough just to bet the LA Lakers when their line comes out or to bet on Sunday night football – some gamblers will be looking to parlay or tease several favorites together on Sunday night. And the Trail Blazers could be the leg that busts out everyone when it looks like easy money to include them.
Portland comes into tonight’s game off a big win against the San Antonio Spurs on Friday night. The Trail Blazers jumped out to an early lead and never looked back getting an easy victory and cover. What some viewers on ESPN might have forgotten that night though was the Spurs being in a pretty vulnerable spot to lose that evening. They had just lost the night before in Utah to the Jazz where they were out-hustled all night just like in Portland.
The Trail Blazers were able to out-rebound the Spurs 48 to 37 and had four starters in double figures. I do feel that the game came off a bit easier for Portland than it should have been and might have over-boosted their confidence coming into tonight with an opponent like the Timberwolves who could be taken too lightly.
With a 3-3 record this season, the Trail Blazers have been a pretty inconsistent team and the three losses came against opponents they had been favored to beat by sizeable margins.
Minnesota comes into Portland losing five straight games after starting the season off with a win against the New Jersey Nets. With a blowout loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers, gamblers and bookmakers were quick to give up on the team making them double digit underdogs several times already this season.
But the Timberwolves were able to keep those games close enough to get the cover and also played the Trail Blazers close enough last season in Portland to cover there twice as well.
Leading scorer for Minnesota has been center Al Jefferson who has been in double figures for four out of eight games. He put in more points last season in the first matchup against the Trail Blazers in Portland than anyone else on the court and I look for the same kind of success tonight in what should be a tight game where baskets could come at a premium.
Even with both of these teams not known for winning games with offense, the Timberwolves have a hot shooter this season in Oleksiy Pecherov at power forward who has connected at 53% from the field.
This included hitting 9 for 14 against the Boston Celtics earlier this week in a season high of 34 minutes on the floor. Pecherov also went 5 for 5 from the free throw line that night and has also had an increasing amount of rebounds in his last two games since the start of the season – including a season-high of 9 against the Milwaukee Bucks on Friday.
He could be an interesting weapon for the Timberwolves this season and you will currently not find anyone on the Trail Blazers producing at this kind of clip.
The opening line for this game came out yesterday at Bookmaker with Portland favored by 15 points. It took less than 30 minutes to be steamed downward to 13½ points where most other sportsbooks opened at. I agree with the early bettors in thinking the line is too high here.
In this type of game, the pace should stay slow as both teams will rely on defense and rebounding to get a win as opposed to some fire power with shooting. Although the Trail Blazers should deservedly be a big favorite with the home court advantage and a spot edge of it being their third straight home game, I would not have made the line higher than 10 points here.
Minnesota will have appeal with underdog players and will continue getting their share action from now until the tip time. It will be difficult for either team to go up by a big margin with it being this type of battle, and it will be a game where someone holding a ticket getting points should feel a lot better about their chances down the stretch than having to give them.
Other Sunday night action on the west coast
Two other Western Conference matchups take place on Sunday night with the LA Lakers hosting the New Orleans Hornets and the Golden State Warriors making the I-80 trip over to Sacramento for a game televised on NBA TV against the Kings.
At press time, the Lakers-Hornets line was unavailable due to Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol being considered doubtful for the game. The Lakers have had a tough time getting the spread covered this season due to Gasol not being around, but will still be favored tonight.
I would advise waiting a half before wagering on this one and see what the second half line is when becoming available. Sometimes when top stars are out, this can be absent from the minds of bettors come halftime when more impulsive betting happens and taking the Hornets then should have some value.
Up far north from LA in Sacramento, the Warriors-Kings battle is one where not much defense should occur and might be a game with a lot of action to tune in for despite the poor records of both squads. The line has favored Golden State on the road here by as much as 5 ½ points but is off the board at press time. With the Kings coming off a very surprising win against the Jazz in Utah last night, another victory tonight will only add to the shock further.
I cannot commit to laying points on the road with the Warriors in a matchup like this where no lead will hold for long, and it is also hard to back the Kings since they are coming in worn out tonight as well as still adjusting to being without leading scorer Kevin Martin. Without an appealing side to take here, the total is what I would have to take a closer look at.
While it was still on the board, the total had opened at 217 ½ and dropped a point to 216 ½ before press time. As with the Lakers-Hornets game, this is another one where waiting until halftime could be best and taking the second half over is where my lean would be. After a half of running and gunning, the Kings defense is bound to be in even softer shape than usual in the second half having played last night.
This should set up more scoring for Golden State then and result in a fourth quarter with both teams trading baskets down the floor.
Game Time: Sunday, November 8, 2009 09:05 PM ET
By: "Reload" Joe Freda | reload.mysbrforum.com
The Portland Trail Blazers are overvalued tonight after the whole country watched them defeat the San Antonio Spurs in a wire-to-wire performance on ESPN Friday night. However, the Blazers caught the Spurs on the back end of a back-to-back and Portland is still a nondescript 3-3 this season. Meanwhile, the Timberwolves covered both meetings here in Portland last year and they have already covered some big spreads this year.
The Sunday night slate in the NBA contains three Western Conference battles and some overvalued favorites taking the court. One matchup in Portland has the Trail Blazers hosting the Minnesota Timberwolves, and looks like a mismatch on paper, but that does not have to stop you from cashing at your sportsbook with some double digit underdog points here.
With NFL football action dominating most of the sports gambling stage on Sundays, bookmakers are often paying less attention to NBA basketball. Soon college hoops will be on the board every weekend as well and as the betting opportunities become greater, the lines posted can get weaker during this part of the year.
If you end up losing some football bets during the afternoon, remember the NBA is there to get you bailed out if you put the right effort into spotting some lines with value.
Tonight’s matchup between Portland and Minnesota is a good example of how a line has likely been inflated a few points to increase the chances of some Vegas tourists blindly throwing their money into the cage on a losing wager before heading back home.
It will not be enough just to bet the LA Lakers when their line comes out or to bet on Sunday night football – some gamblers will be looking to parlay or tease several favorites together on Sunday night. And the Trail Blazers could be the leg that busts out everyone when it looks like easy money to include them.
Portland comes into tonight’s game off a big win against the San Antonio Spurs on Friday night. The Trail Blazers jumped out to an early lead and never looked back getting an easy victory and cover. What some viewers on ESPN might have forgotten that night though was the Spurs being in a pretty vulnerable spot to lose that evening. They had just lost the night before in Utah to the Jazz where they were out-hustled all night just like in Portland.
The Trail Blazers were able to out-rebound the Spurs 48 to 37 and had four starters in double figures. I do feel that the game came off a bit easier for Portland than it should have been and might have over-boosted their confidence coming into tonight with an opponent like the Timberwolves who could be taken too lightly.
With a 3-3 record this season, the Trail Blazers have been a pretty inconsistent team and the three losses came against opponents they had been favored to beat by sizeable margins.
Minnesota comes into Portland losing five straight games after starting the season off with a win against the New Jersey Nets. With a blowout loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers, gamblers and bookmakers were quick to give up on the team making them double digit underdogs several times already this season.
But the Timberwolves were able to keep those games close enough to get the cover and also played the Trail Blazers close enough last season in Portland to cover there twice as well.
Leading scorer for Minnesota has been center Al Jefferson who has been in double figures for four out of eight games. He put in more points last season in the first matchup against the Trail Blazers in Portland than anyone else on the court and I look for the same kind of success tonight in what should be a tight game where baskets could come at a premium.
Even with both of these teams not known for winning games with offense, the Timberwolves have a hot shooter this season in Oleksiy Pecherov at power forward who has connected at 53% from the field.
This included hitting 9 for 14 against the Boston Celtics earlier this week in a season high of 34 minutes on the floor. Pecherov also went 5 for 5 from the free throw line that night and has also had an increasing amount of rebounds in his last two games since the start of the season – including a season-high of 9 against the Milwaukee Bucks on Friday.
He could be an interesting weapon for the Timberwolves this season and you will currently not find anyone on the Trail Blazers producing at this kind of clip.
The opening line for this game came out yesterday at Bookmaker with Portland favored by 15 points. It took less than 30 minutes to be steamed downward to 13½ points where most other sportsbooks opened at. I agree with the early bettors in thinking the line is too high here.
In this type of game, the pace should stay slow as both teams will rely on defense and rebounding to get a win as opposed to some fire power with shooting. Although the Trail Blazers should deservedly be a big favorite with the home court advantage and a spot edge of it being their third straight home game, I would not have made the line higher than 10 points here.
Minnesota will have appeal with underdog players and will continue getting their share action from now until the tip time. It will be difficult for either team to go up by a big margin with it being this type of battle, and it will be a game where someone holding a ticket getting points should feel a lot better about their chances down the stretch than having to give them.
Other Sunday night action on the west coast
Two other Western Conference matchups take place on Sunday night with the LA Lakers hosting the New Orleans Hornets and the Golden State Warriors making the I-80 trip over to Sacramento for a game televised on NBA TV against the Kings.
At press time, the Lakers-Hornets line was unavailable due to Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol being considered doubtful for the game. The Lakers have had a tough time getting the spread covered this season due to Gasol not being around, but will still be favored tonight.
I would advise waiting a half before wagering on this one and see what the second half line is when becoming available. Sometimes when top stars are out, this can be absent from the minds of bettors come halftime when more impulsive betting happens and taking the Hornets then should have some value.
Up far north from LA in Sacramento, the Warriors-Kings battle is one where not much defense should occur and might be a game with a lot of action to tune in for despite the poor records of both squads. The line has favored Golden State on the road here by as much as 5 ½ points but is off the board at press time. With the Kings coming off a very surprising win against the Jazz in Utah last night, another victory tonight will only add to the shock further.
I cannot commit to laying points on the road with the Warriors in a matchup like this where no lead will hold for long, and it is also hard to back the Kings since they are coming in worn out tonight as well as still adjusting to being without leading scorer Kevin Martin. Without an appealing side to take here, the total is what I would have to take a closer look at.
While it was still on the board, the total had opened at 217 ½ and dropped a point to 216 ½ before press time. As with the Lakers-Hornets game, this is another one where waiting until halftime could be best and taking the second half over is where my lean would be. After a half of running and gunning, the Kings defense is bound to be in even softer shape than usual in the second half having played last night.
This should set up more scoring for Golden State then and result in a fourth quarter with both teams trading baskets down the floor.