2009/2010 NBA ATS Trends - Totals

The General · 11-05-09, 08:00 PM

Cleveland has went under the total in 4 straight ATS. Fading the trend and/or Situation (4 consecutive over/under) is 3-0 the early season. Fading the trend and/or Situation (4 consecutive over/under) has won in 3 straight this season. (Dallas, Detroit & NewYork) Suggestion only is Cleveland under tonight.

cleveland OVER UNDER UNDER UNDER UNDER

GL

Brakon00 · 11-05-09, 08:57 PM

yo general....in my opinion i know people like going with current trends..but every game is different...there is some similarity but when teams play totally brand new other teams like tonight in cleveland vs. bulls i dont see how the under is the trend....i mean i took under and bought points but i didnt take the under bc of the 3 straight under trend. I simply took the under bc i felt with the double digit spread that cavs are seen to almost 100% win this game at home and cavs never let their opponents over 100 at home....and usually they dont go over 100 either so i figured making it under 195 which is what i have at -170 odds seems to be the best play......but if u feel trends like the ones uposted help on picks im all for it

The General · 11-05-09, 10:34 PM

Hello Brakon00. Thanks for joining in the thread with your thoughts. As the season progresses and I share some of these angles I use for NBA, you'll find that I play for and against trends with ATS streaks. The original objective when I started this a decade ago was to fade the streaks, but as I studied these, I noticed that all of the streaks typically revert to an even win/loss percentage for the most part so I adjusted. For example, if fading a trend has won/lost several in a row, then I will start riding the trend knowing that they do typically revert to an even win/loss percentage. This is and can be confusing. Hopefully, as the last decade has proved, we'll win and that is all that matters, understanding what I am doing or not. A I said, I've played with this system for a decade and like to think I've learned a few things along the way. I've added to the original idea to give me what I feel are more edges to select from. The problem I run into is often picking sides or totals late and not having the time to explain myself well before the game(s) go off. The vast majority of my picks are close to game time. In reality it's hard to explain anyhow so it's truly the amount of winning that matters. If asked I'd suggest following the picks when I make the official plays and I seriously doubt anyone will be unhappy with the season results. It's best to play them all and not pass because as you know we pass on the winners and then jump in only to find the losers most often. I am confident we will see a positive result by seasons end. If not, it will be unlike any of the past seasons since I started this system. Tonight's thoughts were only suggestions. I did not pick either for myself. I like to wait a little into the season to get a better feel before making my real picks and I also pass on the last part of the season. I do not use this for the playoffs either.

Worth noting that the bigger the streak, the more I will suggest wagering on the game most of the time.

Take care, my friend.

Semper Fi

The General · 11-06-09, 02:20 AM

Updated thru November 5th, 2009

Streaks ATS

3U boston
3U chicago
5U cleveland
4O houston
3U indiana
3O la lakers
4U miami
3U milwaukee
3O sacramento
3O toronto

Fading the trends record in 2009:

3 = 3-6 33% L2 of last 3
4 = 3-1 75% Cleveland

The General · 11-08-09, 01:55 AM

Updated thru November 7th, 2009

3O atlanta

6U cleveland

3U golden st

5O houston

4U indiana

5U miami

5U milwaukee

3U minnesota

3U new york

3O orlando

3U portland

3U washington

3=8-8-1 W3
4=3-4 L3
5=0-1

The General · 11-09-09, 06:38 PM

Updated thru November 8th, 2009

3O atlanta

6U cleveland

5O houston

4U indiana

5U miami

5U milwaukee

3U new york

3U philly

4U washington

3=12-9-1 W7O8
4=3-4 L3
5=0-1

The General · 11-10-09, 04:43 PM

Updated thru November 9th, 2009

3O atlanta

6U cleveland

5O houston

4U indiana

5U miami

5U milwaukee

4U new york

4U washington

3=13-10-1 W8/10
4=3-4 L3
5=0-1

The General · 11-10-09, 06:58 PM

Washington vs. Miami over 184 minus $1.10

netinfo · 11-10-09, 07:33 PM

Thanks for keeping track of the O/U trends.

netinfo

The General · 11-10-09, 08:33 PM

You're welcome Sir.

I'm pushing tonight and not my style but here goes anyhow.

Houston vs. Dallas under 200 minus $1.05

Sportslover · 11-10-09, 08:48 PM

Do you think the Washington vs Miami game will go over a total of 177.5? I've got this as part of a parlay.

The game is not being televised, only getting livescores, just wondering if anybody has an opinion on what the total will be, if you've watched the 1st half?

The General · 11-10-09, 09:44 PM

I am hoping so, Sportslover. That is definitely the best of the bet.

On that note, I do try and get the best numbers because that is essential on sports gambling, but with this system of mine I do not worry to much about the numbers as much a the trends themselves. I'll often play on worse numbers if the pick fits a situation I like.

Washington vs. Miami was a pretty strong play according to my methods. The reason is because we had both teams on trends worthy of a serious look. Washington coming in with 4 consecutive unders and Miami with 5 consecutive unders. In the past, data from my tracking has shown this to be a pick with more of an edge than a single team on a trend. As the numbers show above fading a team going under the total 4 times in consecutive games this season, playing the over we would be 3-4 losing 3 straight so I liked the chance of going over here. One time this season a team had went under the total 5 consecutive times and we would have lost by fading that scenario also show above as 0-1. This is why I picked the over in that game.

Houston has went over the total 5 consecutive games ATS so I went ahead and picked that game under, also. My post in the thread related to sides ATS tries to explain my difficulty in making decisions when we have games being played simultaneously. I do not have as much confidence in making a selection. Past results have shown me that we most likely will not lose both, but that is in reality still losing because of vig no matter.

I do understand some of this will make no sense at all and then some people will not seek to understand any of it either. And then some people may just think how dumb it is. It has been effective for me though for a decade and I also respect everyone's opinions.

I haven't checked any scores tonight yet and I'll admit that I do not feel real good about the games I picked.

Best of luck, everyone.

The General · 11-10-09, 11:02 PM

Pending Okla City and Sactown update thru Nov 10th.

Reminder that records at bottom indicate fading the trends.

3O atlanta

6U cleveland

3O dallas

6O houston

4U indiana

6U miami

5U milwaukee

4U new york

5U washington

3 = 13-10-1 W8/10
4 = 3-5 L4
5= 0-3 L3

The General · 11-11-09, 06:46 PM

Recommended:

Indiana over
New York over
Denver over
Cleveland over
Houston under

Spreadsheet will be updated as picks are made.

The General · 11-12-09, 03:17 PM

Updated thru November 11th, 2009.

4O atlanta

5U indiana

6U miami

3O minnesota

3U new jersey

5U washington

3 = 14-11-1 W9/12
4 = 4-6 L5/6
5 = 1-3 W1
6 = 2-0

The General · 11-12-09, 07:50 PM

Recommend:

Cleveland under

ChileCheese · 11-12-09, 09:08 PM

General,
Interesting thread you got going... really appreciate someone tracking the O/U.
But historically, I have looked at an on going trends such as O/U ( and since it has a general 50/50 proposition) I bet the other way. So if Team A has hit the O in 5 straight, I bet the Under, assuming they cant go on forever.
What conclusions led you to continue with the trend? I think you might see how my strategy works when you look at your record at 5 games.

The General · 11-13-09, 07:27 PM

Updated thru November 12th, 2009.

4O atlanta

5U indiana

3O minnesota

3U new jersey

3O phoenix

5U washington

3 = 14-11-1 W9/12
4 = 4-6 L5/6
5 = 1-3 W1
6 = 3-0

The General · 11-13-09, 07:33 PM

Originally posted by ChileCheese

General,
Interesting thread you got going... really appreciate someone tracking the O/U.
But historically, I have looked at an on going trends such as O/U ( and since it has a general 50/50 proposition) I bet the other way. So if Team A has hit the O in 5 straight, I bet the Under, assuming they cant go on forever.
What conclusions led you to continue with the trend? I think you might see how my strategy works when you look at your record at 5 games.

Thank you for adding/sharing input, ChileCheese. My pleasure to share the data. I am running behind schedule tonight (Been one of those days) and I will gladly try and answer with more detail very shortly, Sir.

All the Best to you in everything: Life and wagering.

The General · 11-13-09, 08:07 PM

Recommend:

Atlanta under

The General · 11-13-09, 08:19 PM

I am Very sorry for such late posting. I am running behind schedule this evening and then I am known to make late picks anyhow. The combination makes matters worse seemingly and also makes me feel less confident in the pick(s) because I didn't really analyze the way I would like to.

Atlanta being on a 4O streak ATS with the season record of fading the streaks at 4-6 losing 5 of last 6 made me believe that it was a good opportunity to try the under, the way the system is meant technically (Fading the trends). Again though, I really consider the records we have and the streaks of such records as well. Losing 5 of last 6 and only at 40% overall thus far it was a pick I'd make most every time.

We'll see how the mop flops.

Good luck with all of your wagers tonight.

The General · 11-13-09, 11:22 PM

Originally posted by ChileCheese

General,
Interesting thread you got going... really appreciate someone tracking the O/U.
But historically, I have looked at an on going trends such as O/U ( and since it has a general 50/50 proposition) I bet the other way. So if Team A has hit the O in 5 straight, I bet the Under, assuming they cant go on forever.
What conclusions led you to continue with the trend? I think you might see how my strategy works when you look at your record at 5 games.

Sorry for the late response.

Your theory is exactly how I began and still a majority of the time play this little system back then about a decade ago. An older gentlemen ex gambler turned religious man suggested it to a very good friend of mine who shared with me.

What I added on my own along the way, based on the fact that most of these trends revert back to around .500 (50/50 prop as you say), I track how we are doing with fading the trends (Records). Great example tonight in the Utah vs. Philadelphia match up. Philadelphia had not covered 5 straight ATS and on the season we were 5-0 fading a team when covering/not covering 5 straight ATS.

My thought was that we couldn't keep that win streak going forever as you mentioned so I go against the principal concept and RIDE the trend figuring on a loss to the original concept. It's very Very subjective to a personal feel. In this case it worked out. As well we had a double edge advantage sort of the way I see it. Utah on a 3NC as well. I hope I'm making some sense.

The Atlanta 4O (Losing 5 of last 6 fading that 4 trend) vs Boston seemed a solid pick on the under. It was a winner so the two strongest looking picks so far were winners tonight.

I was real surprised With Minnesota and New Orleans losing ATS tonight, both in games with streaks ATS involving 4's so I am on Denver currently. The 4's (Sides) are currently, including 2 losses tonight on sides are 2-9 losing 7 of last 8 scenarios. I waited to see how those 2 games played out before deciding on how to play the Lakers vs. Nuggets game tonight. I now see Denver as a real solid pick even though there is no proof or guarantee, just the system.

The top rated best looking 3 picks according to what I do in pro hoops, NBA and WNBA are 2-0 so far tonight, Utah (W), Atlanta under (W) and Pending Denver.

I took a pretty big risk on Denver tonight, but have a lot of faith in the pick. I even hope the referees are on our side in this one.

As with any pick, hopefully a winner.

Good wishes

The General · 11-14-09, 02:39 AM

Updated thru November 13th, 2009.

5U indiana

4U new jersey

3O phoenix

5U washington

3 = 15-12-1 W10/14
4 = 5-6 L5/7W1
5 = 1-3 W1
6 = 3-0

The General · 11-15-09, 10:11 AM

Updated thru Nov 14th, 2009.

3U chicago

3O cleveland

3U memphis

5U new jersey

3O phoenix

3O utah

3 = 15-12-1 W10/14
4 = 5-7 L6/8L1
5 = 3-3 W3
6 = 3-0

The General · 11-16-09, 05:57 PM

Updated thru Nov 15th, 2009.

3U chicago

3O cleveland

3O detroit

3U memphis

5U new jersey

3U toronto

3O utah

3=16-12-1 W11/15
4=5-7 L6/8L1
5=3-3 W3
6=3-0

The General · 11-17-09, 09:05 AM

Updated thru Nov 16th, 2009.

3U chicago

3O cleveland

3O detroit

3U memphis

3O milwaukee

5U new jersey

3U toronto

3O utah

3=16-12-1 W11/15
4=5-7 L6/8L1
5=3-3 W3
6=3-0

mikelius · 11-17-09, 09:51 AM

Very Interesting System. Two questions:

1.- How much money do you bet in each bet? 1, 2, 4, 8, ???
2.- How much money do you lose when you lose a serie?

Thank you very much and I´ll keep on watching

The General · 11-17-09, 06:32 PM

Originally posted by mikelius

Very Interesting System. Two questions:

1.- How much money do you bet in each bet? 1, 2, 4, 8, ???
2.- How much money do you lose when you lose a series?

Thank you very much and I´ll keep on watching

Very good question, mikelius and maybe tough to explain like all else with this seemingly. When I started I placed $50 wagers on 3 streaks ATS and then did indeed try a martingale approach. I hesitate to use that word because it immediately grabs negative attention and deservedly so in many aspects. So originally, it was 3/$50, 4/$100, 5/$200, 6/$400, 7/$800. That seemed to work for while. The reason it works at all sometimes is because we're not riding one trend, but several at the same time.

These days I really cannot explain units to a understandable conclusion. Check out my spreadsheet for examples. I will not play a martingale system anymore unless started around the 9 consecutive ATS or after losing several consecutive picks at any streak, 3,4,5,6,7. Then at some point which I cannot identify currently I will stop playing the team. The longest streak I seen prior to 2007 was 13. Knowing that was pretty nice when picking games using this method. I didn't finish the data for 08 so I don't know if anything went beyond 13 or not.

Directly to your questions.

1.- How much money do you bet in each bet? 1, 2, 4, 8, ???
2.- How much money do you lose when you lose a series?

I start with $50, $100, $150 or $200. It really varies right now, then I have to make a decision based on my financial situation and my opinion on the strength of the pick. My spreadsheet gives some example as to this season so far and my style. I am always trying to critique the thought process often over-analyzing.

I don't know how much is an average amount to lose in a series, but I can say that at some point I'll stop betting a series for lack of better word and move on to the other picks ongoing at the same time.

A KEY again is that when playing this you are not tied to one team for one series. You most often have several series going at once which will assist in any situation of huge losses by offsetting a sort of bigger loss with multiple smaller wins. I do not think you can play every series beginning at, let's say 3 and do real well, but you have to look closely at the chance a streak will continue or cease by following the record of each streak listed side of the streak record via fading it.

Example:

5=3-3 W3
6=3-0

I'll probably lean to riding a trend of 5 since we have won 3 straight fading it.
I'll probably lean to riding a trend of 6 since we have won 3 straight fading it.

The objective is to fade the streaks, but note again that everything seems to revert to a mean or 50/50 in the long run so that cannot be over-looked.

Here is my SBR Spreadsheet for NBA only since I started using it in Jan, 2009. I was not using this system much to end last season and was not tracking the data myself routinely.

The General · 11-17-09, 06:52 PM

Recommend:

Indiana vs. New Jersey under

mikelius · 11-17-09, 08:42 PM

thank you very much for answering

The General · 11-17-09, 08:51 PM

I am glad you asked. I am sorry it didn't make more sense.

Best wishes to ya and thanks for jumping in.

Jasonal_98 · 11-17-09, 09:21 PM

General,

Thanks for your hard work on both of your threads. I'm definitely tailing you on your recommendations at this point.

The General · 11-17-09, 09:40 PM

Originally posted by Jasonal_98

General,

Thanks for your hard work on both of your threads. I'm definitely tailing you on your recommendations at this point.

My pleasure, Jasonal. However, I do feel more pressure to produce winners by opening up here as much as ever regarding this system. In the past it was merely looked at and perceived as a martingale system and that is not real popular, deservedly so. There is much more to it, though and hopefully any positive result will suffice to prove my theories are capable of wining long-term. The fact that we are taking it to such a public level concerns me. There may be others who do play the same way, but have NO desire to publicly share such research. I have no concerns as we will adapt to whatever changes and find a way to see some sort of edge to each pick we think may be a winner. It is important to be able and state why you think any pick has an advantage/edge over any other pick.

I wish you the best.

The General · 11-17-09, 09:42 PM

As well, I feel very confident that the recommendations will NOT put anyone in the poorhouse. That is important, too, but money management, as always, IS quite possibly more important.