2009/2010 NBA ATS Trends - Sides

The General · 11-05-09, 07:55 PM

Chicago has not covered in 3 straight ATS. Fading the trend and/or Situation (3 consecutive cover/no cover) is 6-4 on the early season. Fading the trend and/or Situation (3 consecutive cover/no cover) has won in 2 of the last 3 this season. Suggestion only is Cleveland tonight.

chicago CWIN NCLOSE NCLOSE NCWIN
cleveland NCLOSE NCLOSE CWIN NCWI NCWIN

The General · 11-06-09, 02:15 AM

Updated thru November 5th, 2009

Updated thru November 5th, 2009

Streaks ATS

5C atlanta
3C charlotte
4C houston
3NC la clippers
5NC la lakers
3C minnesota
5NC new jersey

Fading the trends record in 2009:

3=7-4 64% W3 of last 4
4=0-3 0%, Atlanta, LA Lakers & New Jersey

The General · 11-08-09, 01:52 AM

Updated thru November 7th, 2009

3NC boston

5C charlotte

5C houston

4C milwaukee

3NC new york

3NC washington

3=10-6 W6OF8
4=1-4 L2
5=3-0

The General · 11-09-09, 06:36 PM

Updated thru November 8th, 2009

3NC boston

5C charlotte

5C houston

4C milwaukee

3NC new york

3NC philly

4NC washington

3=10-7 W6OF9L1
4=1-4 L2
5=3-0

The General · 11-10-09, 04:40 PM

Updated thru November 9th, 2009

3NC boston

5C charlotte

5C houston

4C milwaukee

3NC minnesota

4NC philly

3C phoenix

4NC washington

3=11-8 L2/3
4=1-4 L2
5=3-0

The General · 11-10-09, 06:49 PM

Charlotte +4½ minus $1.05
Washington +9½ minus $1.05

The General · 11-10-09, 08:33 PM

Houston +7 minus $1.15

The General · 11-10-09, 09:02 PM

Another note about the madness here is when multiple situations arise such as the Charlotte and Houston on the 5 consecutive 5 covers ATS, games being played at the same time. Fading this situation on the season we'd be 3-0 so tonight I wanted to try and play on these teams. Past experience has shown me there is a better than average chance we'll not go 5-0 fading the streaks ATS at this number (5). So, I went ahead and tried riding both tonight even though I am not that confident in the plays currently. Had Charlotte won or lost and I knew the result prior to the Houston game, I may have played it differently. It's a long season and taking some chances every once in awhile is ok in my book. Also, I do not have a desire or feel the need to make plays daily in any sport. I used to be an action jackson, but have learned to control that very well.

The other side tonight, Washington has not covered 4 straight ATS and our season record on fading this trend (4) prior to the game was 1-4 losing 2 straight so I felt real good about that play.

It's very likely that I'll shy away from the trends of 6 or less as the season progresses or at least propose smaller wagers and suggest larger wagers on trends of 7 or more. Fewer picks for larger wagers has proven the most effective for me.

Worth noting that the bigger the streak, the more I will suggest wagering on the game most of the time.

We'll let things play out and adjust accordingly.

The General · 11-10-09, 11:06 PM

Pending okla city and sac town

Updated thru Nov 10th, 2009

Reminder that records below indicate fading the trends

3NC boston

3NC denver

3C miami

4C milwaukee

3NC minnesota

4NC philly

3C phoenix

3C portland

3C sacramento

5NC washington

3 = 11-8 L2/3
4 = 1-5 L3
5 = 5-0 W5

The General · 11-11-09, 06:51 PM

Recommend:

Philadelphia
Denver
Minnesota

Spreadsheet will be updated as picks are made.

The General · 11-12-09, 03:25 PM

Updated thru November 11th, 2009.

4NC denver

3C detroit

3C indiana

3NC la clippers

3C miami

5C milwaukee

4NC minnesota

3C new jersey

5NC philly

4C phoenix

4C portland

3C sacramento

3NC utah

5NC washington

3 = 12-12 L6/8
4 = 1-7 L5
5 = 5-0 W5

The General · 11-12-09, 07:49 PM

Recommend:

Cleveland

The General · 11-12-09, 10:34 PM

Recommend:

LA Lakers

The General · 11-13-09, 06:59 PM

Recommend:

Utah

PockyStick · 11-13-09, 07:13 PM

keep up the good work, would be intersting to see how it plays out

The General · 11-13-09, 07:20 PM

Updated thru November 12th, 2009.

3C cleveland

4NC denver

3C detroit

3C indiana

3NC la clippers

3C la lakers

5C milwaukee

4NC minnesota

3C new jersey

5NC philly

4C portland

3C sacramento

3NC utah

5NC washington

3 = 13-12 W1
4 = 2-7 L5/6W1
5 = 5-0 W5

The General · 11-13-09, 07:22 PM

Originally posted by PockyStick

keep up the good work, would be intersting to see how it plays out

Thank you, PockyStick.

All the best to you, my friend.

The General · 11-13-09, 07:56 PM

We have 5 situations this evening with streaks of 3 or more so I will not put much thought into those. Past years have shown that these are not worthy of the work involved when considering/comparing to profit/loss results. If there were fewer games involved and I had significant data to ponder, then I would look more into the games this evening. When I am sort of running behind schedule like tonight and then have so many scenarios to review, it's best to relax and not make irrational decisions. As well, noted above, it's a long season and we have no reason to make picks every night.

Speaking for myself, if I am pushing and hurrying, then little good comes from it and my anxiety level rises so I'm going to follow along and if something shines for a late game, we'll consider it then, but with each of the last 3 games tonight involved, I'll probably pass on these and not waste much thought.

The Utah pick was about Philadelphia being on a streak of 5 No Covers being 5-0 on the season fading the sides of 5 streaks ATS. Playing against a 3NC added to my decision. You have one team, Utah 3NC vs. Philly 5NC. I felt we had an edge in losing a 5 streak and that was what determined my pick there.

I am determining if/how I want to approach the 4 game streaks right now knowing we have a 2-7 record fading these and lost 5 of 6.

Portland 4C vs. New Orleans starting soon.
Minny is a 4NC
Denver is a 4NC as well

BRB

The General · 11-13-09, 08:00 PM

Recommend:

New Orleans
Minnesota
Denver

The General · 11-13-09, 09:04 PM

I am Very sorry for such late posting. I am running behind schedule this evening and then I am known to make late picks anyhow. I feel the need to wait for any late breaking news for some stupid reason or sometimes better odds. This also affects getting the best odds, but ho hum be a bum, no risk no reward....The combination of running behind schedule and making late picks from habit makes matters worse seemingly and also makes me feel less confident in the pick(s) because I didn't feel that I really analyzed the system the way I would like/need to.

I put in picks for New Orleans and Minnesota fading the trends ATS and will watch and see how these games play out before deciding on Denver later 10.35 Est. My strategy if the first two picks cover ATS, I'll probably pass on Denver, but should we lose both or even split picks, then I'll lean to playing the Denver game most assuredly.

Many times, waiting till halftime is a benefit, but that is a post of its own later.

I haven't yet checked any scores with being busy here, running late and I feel like I did the night of Nov 10th when I went 0-5 with my picks being behind on schedule, hurrying and also eating the same dinner as well, a SPUDZILLA.

I am superstitious so all of the factors from an 0-5 night are in place here again with same dinner, same hurrying, same number of games, 5. duh

Maybe we'll do ok and make a $1. That is good enough for me.

PS...A SPUDZILLA is a 5 LB dish mountain of food. Baked potatoes, loaded with butter, sour cream, pulled brisket smoked pork, sweet and spicey barbecue sauce, nacho cheese, tomatoes, onions, smoked baked beans and jalapenos peppers. TREMENDOUS DISH.

Time to take a short break and check some scores. I am also watching the West Virginia vs. Cincinnati NCAAF game on ESPN.

Sincere Best of luck this evening and be safe, everyone. Thanks for taking the time to try and understand this clusterfuk of information I am trying to share.

Also, please check mySBR spreadsheet for actual picks.

The General · 11-13-09, 10:30 PM

Recommended:

Denver

The General · 11-14-09, 02:30 AM

Updated thru November 13th, 2009.

3C atlanta

3C cleveland

3C detroit

3C indiana

4NC la clippers

5C milwaukee

5NC minnesota

6NC philly

5C portland

4C sacramento

5NC washington

3 = 16-14 W4/6
4 = 3-9 L7/9-L2/3W1
5 = 5-1 W5/6L1

The General · 11-15-09, 10:08 AM

Updated thru Nov 14th, 2009.

4C atlanta

3NC charlotte

4C indiana

4NC la clippers

6NC minnesota

3NC new orleans

6C portland

4C sacramento

3 = 18-16
4 = 3-9 L7/9-L2/3W1
5 = 7-3
6 = 1-0

The General · 11-16-09, 05:55 PM

Updated thru Nov 15th, 2009.

4C atlanta

3NC charlotte

4C indiana

6NC minnesota

3NC new orleans

6C portland

4C sacramento

3C toronto

3=18-16
4=4-9 W2
5=7-3
6=1-0

The General · 11-17-09, 08:55 AM

Updated thru Nov 16th, 2009.

5C atlanta

3C dallas

4C indiana

6NC minnesota

3NC new orleans

4C sacramento

3C toronto

3=19-16 W1
4=4-10 W2/3L1
5=7-3
6=2-0

The General · 11-17-09, 06:55 PM

Recommend:

New Jersey

The General · 11-17-09, 08:59 PM

FWIW,

I am going to look at scores now, but if New Jersey doesn't cover, I am pretty sure I will recommend/pick Chicago and think that we'll not lose the 2 4C's tonight. It can happen for sure, but I feel an edge in the later game after losing the early 4C here.

The General · 11-17-09, 09:55 PM

Recommend:

Chicago Bulls

The General · 11-18-09, 01:08 AM

Updated thru Nov 17th, 2009.

5C atlanta

3C dallas

3C golden st

5C indiana

3NC la lakers

3NC miami

6NC minnesota

3=21-16 W3
4=5-11 L2/3
5=7-3
6=2-0

The General · 11-18-09, 05:54 PM

Recommend:

Houston

Miami, but each streak seems tough to go against as we have been hot on the 3's(Mia) and the 5's (Atl). Both seem to be followed instead of faded, IMO. Tough, prob pass for me.

Indiana

The General · 11-19-09, 02:58 PM

Updated thru Nov 18th, 2009.

6C atlanta

3NC boston

3NC cleveland

4C dallas

4C golden st

3NC la lakers

4NC miami

7NC minnesota

3=21-19 L3
4=5-11 L2/3
5=8-4
6=2-1 L1

The General · 11-19-09, 05:39 PM

Recommend:

Lakers

The General · 11-19-09, 10:12 PM

My recommendations of Lakers and over concern me. I am not very hopeful that both will hit.

Terrible position on the over with the bad number late. I can only suggest looking at the spreadsheet to see if I pick anything official.

Good luck

The General · 11-20-09, 02:13 PM

Reporting an error in my data as I noticed today that Utah was on a 3C heading into last last night, but my information did not reflect that.

Apologies and please do not hesitate to correct my information should you catch an error. I'd appreciate it very much.