Betting the NBA Teams that are in "Tank" Mode

**tevari** · 03-30-07, 03:34 PM

earlier in the season, doc rivers and co said they were playing every game to win, and doesn't care about their chances with a number 1 or 2 pick come lottery time...im with you here though and find that hard to believe after their charlotte game. as far as milwaukee goes, i really have no idea...villanueva came back for a game or two and now hes out for the rest of the year. i'd avoid betting these teams at all costs as we're <10 games from their seasons being over. tonights mil/cha game will be like watching two kids with down syndrome trying to solve a calculus equation

**The HG** · 03-30-07, 05:15 PM

Yes tanking happens and it is a key element of late-season capping in the NBA. But the tanking tends to happen on a more game-to-game level, as opposed to a premature end to a team's entire season. It's not like some team decides "ok boys, now we're going to lose every game from here on in". It's more like a team that is out of the playoff picture will completely mail it in for a stretch at the end, OR, a team will start giving its youngsters and bench guys way more time.

With the example of Boston, yes the Charlotte game raised eyebrows. But those accusations pushed them in the other direction. They beat Toronto, and fought out an OT win over Orlando after that. You can't win in the NBA when you are tanking.

Look at this quote from AL Jefferson before tonight's game at Philly:

"We're getting more and more excited for next year because if we would have had our full team all year, there's no doubt in my mind we would have made the playoffs," said Jefferson.

Yes Boston will shut down Paul Pierce soon, and there may soon be a period of more tanking/big minutes for scrubs before the season is out. But for now, Boston can be counted as no longer tanking.

Indiana, on the other hand, may currently be in full-tank mode. And top teams can semi-tank as well, when their playoff spots are secured and their top guys need rest. Dallas will probably do a 1/4 tank tonight.

You just play tanking game-by-game, and strongly consider the other side's motivation to take advantage.

**dodif** · 03-30-07, 06:20 PM

You just play tanking game-by-game, and strongly consider the other side's motivation to take advantage.

**babaoriley** · 03-30-07, 06:25 PM

Originally posted by Ganchrow HG

Yes tanking happens and it is a key element of late-season capping in the NBA. But the tanking tends to happen on a more game-to-game level, as opposed to a premature end to a team's entire season. It's not like some team decides "ok boys, now we're going to lose every game from here on in". It's more like a team that is out of the playoff picture will completely mail it in for a stretch at the end, OR, a team will start giving its youngsters and bench guys way more time.

With the example of Boston, yes the Charlotte game raised eyebrows. But those accusations pushed them in the other direction. They beat Toronto, and fought out an OT win over Orlando after that. You can't win in the NBA when you are tanking.

Look at this quote from AL Jefferson before tonight's game at Philly:

"We're getting more and more excited for next year because if we would have had our full team all year, there's no doubt in my mind we would have made the playoffs," said Jefferson.

Yes Boston will shut down Paul Pierce soon, and there may soon be a period of more tanking/big minutes for scrubs before the season is out. But for now, Boston can be counted as no longer tanking.

Indiana, on the other hand, may currently be in full-tank mode. And top teams can semi-tank as well, when their playoff spots are secured and their top guys need rest. Dallas will probably do a 1/4 tank tonight.

You just play tanking game-by-game, and strongly consider the other side's motivation to take advantage.

Well said. But, I have to add that Boston had no choice but play a 100% game after that tank-job. I didn't watch the game, but I read the play-by-play and could READ that it was a tank-job. Personally, I think Milwaukee is in full "lose 'em all" mode. If I'm not mistaken, two starters are now essentially out for the season and this is a team that is DESPERATE (I mean, DESPERATELY DESPERATE) for a big-name player (Durant or Oden). Add in an increasingly disenfranchised fanbase and you've got a team that A) has a duty to at least entertain during their home games and B) give the perception that they're trying to grit out wins on the road, but ultimately has to C) LOSE, LOSE, LOSE. Honestly, Michael Redd is a great player, one of my favorite players in the league actually, simply because he;s old-school... That said, he isn't a ticket seller. Boston has Jefferson, Pierce, and even potential studs waiting for their Bynum-type breakthrough (Green, Telfair)... I'm writing in ellipses from now on because my thoughts are broken here... On one hand, I want Durant to be a Celtic and I think the NBA would benefit from Durant or Oden going to Boston and revitalizing that franchise. Charlotte is in need of some veteran leadership but has some nice pieces. Milwaukee has Andrew Bogut, Chuck Villanueve, and Michael Redd and they're supposed to excite people??? I have a few units bet on charlotte (strictly a fade Milwaukee play---as I think Charlotte is obligated to try to win at home)... The difference between having a 12.5% chance and a 8% chance of hitting the lottery and getting one of those top-3 is immensely more important than a win or two to push your record up to 29-63 on the season... I

**babaoriley** · 03-30-07, 06:28 PM

By the way, if Milwaukee has a halftime lead, I'm dropping a couple more units on Charlotte for the second half.

Here are the lineups currently;
Milwaukee:
Skinner, Redd, Williams, Bell, Patterson

Charlotte:
Morrison, Hermann (Who the Fvck is that?), Wallace, Voskuhl, Knight

Quite a game. Maybe they'll dress out a few lucky fans for the second half.

EDIT: Just looked at Herrmann's stats and apparently he is getting PT, so it's I who am out of the loop.

**babaoriley** · 03-30-07, 06:55 PM

Now guys named Reiner, Noel, and Matt Carroll are getting PT... This one is going down as as instant classic.

**babaoriley** · 03-30-07, 07:56 PM

Looking good on charlotte. Milwaukee has a lineup of:
Noel
Markota
Bell
Boykins
Ilyasova

Dead serious...

May I add that Noel, Illyasova, Markota have combined for 27 minutes, 1 point, and 4 fouls...

And some guy named Greer just came in. did they actually take my advice about dressing up fans seriously???

**The HG** · 03-30-07, 07:59 PM

Yeah I took Charlotte -4.5 2H for a good amount. But not as an anti-Milwaukee bet at all, more as a pro-Charlotte bet. I am expecting Charlotte to finish out the season strong, I think I wrote about that in one of AC's threads.

Nice job Baba.

**Razz** · 03-30-07, 07:59 PM

I think Noel went to UNC, but who the hell are the rest of those guys?

**The HG** · 03-30-07, 08:02 PM

I bet you that Reiner dude is related to Rob Reiner, "meathead" from All in the Family, the 70s sitcom.

**babaoriley** · 03-30-07, 08:05 PM

Yeah, I remember Dave Noel from college.

But Damir Markota, Lynn Greer, Ersan Illyaniva???

I mean, who in the shit are these guys?

Oh, and Redd hasn't played a second of the 4th quarter.

**rjt721** · 03-30-07, 08:07 PM

Originally posted by babaoriley

Yeah, I remember Dave Noel from college.

But Damir Markota, Lynn Greer, Ersan Illyaniva???

I mean, who in the shit are these guys?

Oh, and Redd hasn't played a second of the 4th quarter.

Lynn Greer was a great player at Temple.

**babaoriley** · 03-30-07, 08:11 PM

Well, Scotty Thurman was a great player at Arkansas... Look at him now.

**babaoriley** · 03-30-07, 08:29 PM

P.S. If Michael Redd and Ruben Patterson continue to play a combined 49 minutes per game, I'll be betting HEAVILY for the next couple MIL road games.