Chalk up Indiana Fever -3 over Phoenix Mercury in Game 3
Sunday, October 4, 2009 04:05 PM ET
By: "Reload" Joe Freda | reload.mysbrforum.com
The Fever got the road win in Phoenix that they needed in Game 2, and they can now take the WNBA Championship by winning the next two at home. Lay the points in Conseco today.
In a Sunday afternoon tip, Game 3 of the WNBA Finals takes place at 4pm ET today on ESPN2 with the Indiana Fever hosting the Phoenix Mercury at Conseco Fieldhouse.
With the best of five series tied 1-1, the winner of today’s game will take the driver’s seat for a clinching Game 4 this week. The Fever have the pole position with the league’s best home court advantage and expect a big crowd to watch them get the cover today against the Mercury.
On Thursday night, Game 2 of the finals saw Indiana bounce back from a Game 1 loss and hold Phoenix to their second lowest scoring total of the playoffs with a 93-84 victory. In addition to playing superb defense, Tamika Catchings of the Fever nearly had a triple-double that night with 19 points, 11 assists, and 9 rebounds.
Six players from Indiana reached double figures on the scoreboard including rookie Briann January who had one of her best games of the season with 16 points.
Home sweet home for the Fever
Although defeating the Mercury twice in a row is no easy task, the confines of Conseco Fieldhouse have been huge for the Fever this season. Home court advantage was what helped edge out the defending WNBA champion Detroit Shock for Indiana in the conference finals, as well as put away the Washington Mystics in overtime of their conference semifinal series clincher.
It has been a 17-3 record overall for the Fever at home this season and with an average of only 72 points allowed per home game, the high-octane offense of the Mercury will need their feet on the gas pedal a lot to keep this close.
During the regular season, Phoenix was one of the few teams to win as a Fever opponent in Conseco Fieldhouse and it was a wire to wire 106-90 victory for the Mercury just a month ago and this may give them some confidence coming into today’s matchup.
Indiana failed to outscore Phoenix in any quarter that night and lost what turned out to be a meaningful game for home court advantage in this finals series. However, all-star Fever starting guard Katie Douglas was sidelined for that game and this was clearly a factor in both giving up more points than usual and Indiana’s three point shooting being a poor 4 for 18 that night.
With Indiana at full strength and a couple of rest days since Game 2, I would look for the whole roster to put the brakes on any hope Phoenix has today – even with the Mercury having the best road record in the league this year.
Changes to look for in Game 3
Although I have said a couple of times in this series that Phoenix has the edge in depth, we have to wonder if global standout Penny Taylor will be at her best for the Mercury today. Taylor’s mouth and teeth were shaken up in Thursday’s Game 2 defeat which left little hope that Phoenix could pull out a win when trailing in the fourth quarter.
Both Taylor and DeWanna Bonner have put some big effort in from the bench during the playoffs and homestretch of the regular season. Although Taylor is expected to be in the lineup, I feel an injury like the one caused could affect her mental aggression more than anything else and we may not see her making the same drives to the hoop as usual.
According to practice reports on WNBA.com, the Mercury are also looking to make a bit of a style adjustment for today’s game. Phoenix is looking to possibly wait it out more on offense so that they can make the Fever spend more time defending them.
This may wear out the Fever defense a little more and at the same time give the Mercury a better feel for adjustments they have to make. However, my feeling is that this is not the time or place for Phoenix to make any kind of change in their focus and by not sticking to what got them the WNBA’s best record this year it could cause a pretty sizeable defeat in today’s game.
I also sense that the potential style change from Phoenix is really just an over-reaction to their superstar Diana Taurasi’s poor performance in Game 2. Taurasi rushed some shots on several occasions and went only 2 for 10 from three point range.
Despite being the leading scorer and rebounder for Phoenix that night, not connecting on many triples is what did the Mercury in. And if they feel film from all of Game 2 was not enough material to review in making adjustments against the Fever defense, Taurasi and the Mercury could be in for a long afternoon at Conseco Fieldhouse today.
Can the Mercury lose two in a row?
Some bettors may back the Mercury today with the feeling that they are not the type of team to drop two games in a row easily, and getting three points on top of that with the point spread is an added bonus – but do not be too quick to jump on that type of trend. Cappie Pondexter may be one of the league’s leading scorers, but had some facts not quite straight about Phoenix’s performance in an interview conducted at practice yesterday by WNBA.com.
She said that the Mercury had not lost two games in a row all season – but this is far from true. Phoenix has actually lost back to back games twice this season – and on both occasions the second game was facing a tough spot on the road in San Antonio.
With the Fever expecting a sellout home crowd, any trends about back to back losses for the Mercury will surely pull in for a pit stop lasting the length of today’s game. The Mercury are always one of the most bet on teams in the league which typically keeps the number of points they get as an underdog on the lower side than it should be – and today is no exception.
I have felt that the only possibility of seeing a higher line today would have been if Indiana had lost Game 2 making today’s game a must-win for the Fever. However, winning Game 2 to tie the series now puts more intensity and pressure on Phoenix which draws betting interest to the Mercury making the number lower.
Keep an eye out for further line movement with a site like SBRodds.com and see if you will be able to lay even less than three points with the home chalk Fever.
Overall, I feel the fallout from Game 2 was a shift in the confidence and poise of Phoenix stars like Taurasi that they have had all year and having it rub off onto the Fever. Catchings appears as mentally tough for these finals on Indiana’s squad as she has been in her whole basketball career. The class, respect, discipline, and leadership is likely to be there more than ever from tip to buzzer today and I feel it is a bargain to back the home chalk today because of it.
Although Sunday sports betting has the NFL on its biggest stage, try flipping over to ESPN2 for a change of pace – and lay the points with Indiana Fever.
Sunday, October 4, 2009 04:05 PM ET
By: "Reload" Joe Freda | reload.mysbrforum.com
The Fever got the road win in Phoenix that they needed in Game 2, and they can now take the WNBA Championship by winning the next two at home. Lay the points in Conseco today.
In a Sunday afternoon tip, Game 3 of the WNBA Finals takes place at 4pm ET today on ESPN2 with the Indiana Fever hosting the Phoenix Mercury at Conseco Fieldhouse.
With the best of five series tied 1-1, the winner of today’s game will take the driver’s seat for a clinching Game 4 this week. The Fever have the pole position with the league’s best home court advantage and expect a big crowd to watch them get the cover today against the Mercury.
On Thursday night, Game 2 of the finals saw Indiana bounce back from a Game 1 loss and hold Phoenix to their second lowest scoring total of the playoffs with a 93-84 victory. In addition to playing superb defense, Tamika Catchings of the Fever nearly had a triple-double that night with 19 points, 11 assists, and 9 rebounds.
Six players from Indiana reached double figures on the scoreboard including rookie Briann January who had one of her best games of the season with 16 points.
Home sweet home for the Fever
Although defeating the Mercury twice in a row is no easy task, the confines of Conseco Fieldhouse have been huge for the Fever this season. Home court advantage was what helped edge out the defending WNBA champion Detroit Shock for Indiana in the conference finals, as well as put away the Washington Mystics in overtime of their conference semifinal series clincher.
It has been a 17-3 record overall for the Fever at home this season and with an average of only 72 points allowed per home game, the high-octane offense of the Mercury will need their feet on the gas pedal a lot to keep this close.
During the regular season, Phoenix was one of the few teams to win as a Fever opponent in Conseco Fieldhouse and it was a wire to wire 106-90 victory for the Mercury just a month ago and this may give them some confidence coming into today’s matchup.
Indiana failed to outscore Phoenix in any quarter that night and lost what turned out to be a meaningful game for home court advantage in this finals series. However, all-star Fever starting guard Katie Douglas was sidelined for that game and this was clearly a factor in both giving up more points than usual and Indiana’s three point shooting being a poor 4 for 18 that night.
With Indiana at full strength and a couple of rest days since Game 2, I would look for the whole roster to put the brakes on any hope Phoenix has today – even with the Mercury having the best road record in the league this year.
Changes to look for in Game 3
Although I have said a couple of times in this series that Phoenix has the edge in depth, we have to wonder if global standout Penny Taylor will be at her best for the Mercury today. Taylor’s mouth and teeth were shaken up in Thursday’s Game 2 defeat which left little hope that Phoenix could pull out a win when trailing in the fourth quarter.
Both Taylor and DeWanna Bonner have put some big effort in from the bench during the playoffs and homestretch of the regular season. Although Taylor is expected to be in the lineup, I feel an injury like the one caused could affect her mental aggression more than anything else and we may not see her making the same drives to the hoop as usual.
According to practice reports on WNBA.com, the Mercury are also looking to make a bit of a style adjustment for today’s game. Phoenix is looking to possibly wait it out more on offense so that they can make the Fever spend more time defending them.
This may wear out the Fever defense a little more and at the same time give the Mercury a better feel for adjustments they have to make. However, my feeling is that this is not the time or place for Phoenix to make any kind of change in their focus and by not sticking to what got them the WNBA’s best record this year it could cause a pretty sizeable defeat in today’s game.
I also sense that the potential style change from Phoenix is really just an over-reaction to their superstar Diana Taurasi’s poor performance in Game 2. Taurasi rushed some shots on several occasions and went only 2 for 10 from three point range.
Despite being the leading scorer and rebounder for Phoenix that night, not connecting on many triples is what did the Mercury in. And if they feel film from all of Game 2 was not enough material to review in making adjustments against the Fever defense, Taurasi and the Mercury could be in for a long afternoon at Conseco Fieldhouse today.
Can the Mercury lose two in a row?
Some bettors may back the Mercury today with the feeling that they are not the type of team to drop two games in a row easily, and getting three points on top of that with the point spread is an added bonus – but do not be too quick to jump on that type of trend. Cappie Pondexter may be one of the league’s leading scorers, but had some facts not quite straight about Phoenix’s performance in an interview conducted at practice yesterday by WNBA.com.
She said that the Mercury had not lost two games in a row all season – but this is far from true. Phoenix has actually lost back to back games twice this season – and on both occasions the second game was facing a tough spot on the road in San Antonio.
With the Fever expecting a sellout home crowd, any trends about back to back losses for the Mercury will surely pull in for a pit stop lasting the length of today’s game. The Mercury are always one of the most bet on teams in the league which typically keeps the number of points they get as an underdog on the lower side than it should be – and today is no exception.
I have felt that the only possibility of seeing a higher line today would have been if Indiana had lost Game 2 making today’s game a must-win for the Fever. However, winning Game 2 to tie the series now puts more intensity and pressure on Phoenix which draws betting interest to the Mercury making the number lower.
Keep an eye out for further line movement with a site like SBRodds.com and see if you will be able to lay even less than three points with the home chalk Fever.
Overall, I feel the fallout from Game 2 was a shift in the confidence and poise of Phoenix stars like Taurasi that they have had all year and having it rub off onto the Fever. Catchings appears as mentally tough for these finals on Indiana’s squad as she has been in her whole basketball career. The class, respect, discipline, and leadership is likely to be there more than ever from tip to buzzer today and I feel it is a bargain to back the home chalk today because of it.
Although Sunday sports betting has the NFL on its biggest stage, try flipping over to ESPN2 for a change of pace – and lay the points with Indiana Fever.