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Mercury’s fire, Fever’s thermometer to cool off and go Under 180 in Game 2
Thursday, October 1, 2009
By: "Reload" Joe Freda | reload.mysbrforum.com
Following the record-setting 120-116 overtime win in Game 1 by Phoenix, things should settle down on Thursday when the Mercury host the Indiana Fever in Game 2 of the WNBA Finals.
Game 1 of the WNBA Finals on Tuesday was a high-scoring overtime shootout between the Indiana Fever and Phoenix Mercury that left fans and gamblers wondering if there would be any defense in this series. Tonight’s rematch in Game 2 should be a more intense experience among the squads and this handicapper feels backing the under in an over-adjusted total of 180 has the best value on the board.
In what all the experts felt would be a series of offense against defense, the offense of Phoenix edged out a non-existent Indiana defense in Game 1 by the score of 120-116. A combined total of 22 three pointers were made by both teams and that along with over 50% shooting from the field on both ends of the floor made it one of the most explosive games of the season. With a result like that, it can have some gamblers running to the betting windows just two days later wanting to wager on the over right away - but remember that the ball and backboard have no memory when it comes to basketball.
In Game 1, I felt the Mercury would win because of several factors and one of these was the depth they would bring to the court. This turned out to be the case as rookie sensation DeWanna Bonner and worldwide standout Penny Taylor combined for 38 points from the Phoenix bench. By spreading out the minutes and getting the right matchups on the court, the Mercury prevailed in what would turn out to be a grueling marathon of a contest and likely have more left in the tank for tonight than the Fever.
Although I am all for a bounceback by a visiting underdog in Game 2 of a series, Indiana’s only real chance tonight is to slow down the tempo of the game which will be difficult. With the Mercury having the worst defense in the WNBA giving up an average of 89 points per game, they will sometimes leave open chances for opponents to run and gun – and the Fever showcased some offense on Tuesday because of it. But the end result showed that Phoenix is just that much better of a team and that Fever coach Lin Dunn’s losing record in playoff games left a loss in overtime as no real surprise down the stretch.
With a fast tempo still expected among the teams tonight at the US Airways Center, most would think it still leads to big scoring but it could also result in more careless missed shots and sloppier turnovers on both ends of the floor. Ironically, it was two seasons ago when the Mercury lost Game 1 of the finals to the Detroit Shock in a high scoring 108-100 defeat that went way over the 178 total on that occasion. This caused the bookmakers to raise the total by six points for Game 2 up to 184 but the Shock could not hold up their end of the scoring for two straight games and went 3 for 20 beyond the arch – resulting in Phoenix taking a lower scoring rematch 98-70. I feel the same type of scenario is present tonight and that either the Fever or Mercury will not make the same kind of easy swishing baskets this evening after shooting lights out just two nights ago.
During the regular season when the Fever and Mercury split both games against each other, there was lower scoring than expected when meeting in Phoenix last month. Indiana stole a 90-83 victory which cashed the under thanks to the combined total going below 175. In that game, the key to Indiana winning was outrebounding Phoenix 43-26 and limiting the scoring chances of the Mercury. The Fever defense also held the Mercury to only 3 for 14 in shooting from downtown that night even without defensive superstar Tamika Catchings on the floor, and would have to make that happen in order to keep it close tonight.
Indiana has had the top defense in the league against the three point shot all season and has only allowed 32% shooting from beyond the arch which will show itself in this series sooner or later if the Fever can keep extending their chances. Although this stinginess did not happen from the Indiana in Game 1, it has a chance to occur tonight now that Indiana is more settled into the series and needs more emotion in order to not go down 0-2 against Phoenix.
Sometimes the mentality when a five or seven game playoff series starts in any sport is for the road team in Games 1 and 2 to mentally target themselves for “at least getting a split”. This can cause them to either drop Game 1 thinking they can be more intense in Game 2 or stealing Game 1 followed up by a reality check loss in Game 2. With tonight’s game, it is difficult to say if Indiana will have enough to win or cover but I expect defense and rebounding to improve enough which should keep the total lower.
Both Pinnacle Sports and Bookmaker opened tonight’s total at 179 with it not taking long for some early steam to bump it up a point where it currently sits at 180. Although some of the Mercury’s recent games have had a number like this come out for a total, the Fever have not played in a game with a total this high all season. I feel that is another reason which makes tonight’s high total an overlay and it is especially inflated due to the high scoring result of Game 1.
This could actually be the best value we see in the whole series with a total as it might become lower again after action shifts to the Conseco Fieldhouse in Indiana on Sunday. That would especially be the case if the under cashes tonight - so don’t miss out on a Thursday night payday here.
Mercury’s fire, Fever’s thermometer to cool off and go Under 180 in Game 2
Thursday, October 1, 2009
By: "Reload" Joe Freda | reload.mysbrforum.com
Following the record-setting 120-116 overtime win in Game 1 by Phoenix, things should settle down on Thursday when the Mercury host the Indiana Fever in Game 2 of the WNBA Finals.
Game 1 of the WNBA Finals on Tuesday was a high-scoring overtime shootout between the Indiana Fever and Phoenix Mercury that left fans and gamblers wondering if there would be any defense in this series. Tonight’s rematch in Game 2 should be a more intense experience among the squads and this handicapper feels backing the under in an over-adjusted total of 180 has the best value on the board.
In what all the experts felt would be a series of offense against defense, the offense of Phoenix edged out a non-existent Indiana defense in Game 1 by the score of 120-116. A combined total of 22 three pointers were made by both teams and that along with over 50% shooting from the field on both ends of the floor made it one of the most explosive games of the season. With a result like that, it can have some gamblers running to the betting windows just two days later wanting to wager on the over right away - but remember that the ball and backboard have no memory when it comes to basketball.
In Game 1, I felt the Mercury would win because of several factors and one of these was the depth they would bring to the court. This turned out to be the case as rookie sensation DeWanna Bonner and worldwide standout Penny Taylor combined for 38 points from the Phoenix bench. By spreading out the minutes and getting the right matchups on the court, the Mercury prevailed in what would turn out to be a grueling marathon of a contest and likely have more left in the tank for tonight than the Fever.
Although I am all for a bounceback by a visiting underdog in Game 2 of a series, Indiana’s only real chance tonight is to slow down the tempo of the game which will be difficult. With the Mercury having the worst defense in the WNBA giving up an average of 89 points per game, they will sometimes leave open chances for opponents to run and gun – and the Fever showcased some offense on Tuesday because of it. But the end result showed that Phoenix is just that much better of a team and that Fever coach Lin Dunn’s losing record in playoff games left a loss in overtime as no real surprise down the stretch.
With a fast tempo still expected among the teams tonight at the US Airways Center, most would think it still leads to big scoring but it could also result in more careless missed shots and sloppier turnovers on both ends of the floor. Ironically, it was two seasons ago when the Mercury lost Game 1 of the finals to the Detroit Shock in a high scoring 108-100 defeat that went way over the 178 total on that occasion. This caused the bookmakers to raise the total by six points for Game 2 up to 184 but the Shock could not hold up their end of the scoring for two straight games and went 3 for 20 beyond the arch – resulting in Phoenix taking a lower scoring rematch 98-70. I feel the same type of scenario is present tonight and that either the Fever or Mercury will not make the same kind of easy swishing baskets this evening after shooting lights out just two nights ago.
During the regular season when the Fever and Mercury split both games against each other, there was lower scoring than expected when meeting in Phoenix last month. Indiana stole a 90-83 victory which cashed the under thanks to the combined total going below 175. In that game, the key to Indiana winning was outrebounding Phoenix 43-26 and limiting the scoring chances of the Mercury. The Fever defense also held the Mercury to only 3 for 14 in shooting from downtown that night even without defensive superstar Tamika Catchings on the floor, and would have to make that happen in order to keep it close tonight.
Indiana has had the top defense in the league against the three point shot all season and has only allowed 32% shooting from beyond the arch which will show itself in this series sooner or later if the Fever can keep extending their chances. Although this stinginess did not happen from the Indiana in Game 1, it has a chance to occur tonight now that Indiana is more settled into the series and needs more emotion in order to not go down 0-2 against Phoenix.
Sometimes the mentality when a five or seven game playoff series starts in any sport is for the road team in Games 1 and 2 to mentally target themselves for “at least getting a split”. This can cause them to either drop Game 1 thinking they can be more intense in Game 2 or stealing Game 1 followed up by a reality check loss in Game 2. With tonight’s game, it is difficult to say if Indiana will have enough to win or cover but I expect defense and rebounding to improve enough which should keep the total lower.
Both Pinnacle Sports and Bookmaker opened tonight’s total at 179 with it not taking long for some early steam to bump it up a point where it currently sits at 180. Although some of the Mercury’s recent games have had a number like this come out for a total, the Fever have not played in a game with a total this high all season. I feel that is another reason which makes tonight’s high total an overlay and it is especially inflated due to the high scoring result of Game 1.
This could actually be the best value we see in the whole series with a total as it might become lower again after action shifts to the Conseco Fieldhouse in Indiana on Sunday. That would especially be the case if the under cashes tonight - so don’t miss out on a Thursday night payday here.
