Don't be fooled, LA/Phoenix goes under

jcygts6 · 09-25-09, 01:11 AM

u sure about that? I bet U it will go over

SportsTerminator · 09-25-09, 01:20 AM

If it goes under chubber911 will give all his SBR Points to jcygts6. And if it goes under vice versa.

BL · 09-25-09, 03:37 AM

Originally posted by chubber911

With each team expecting ~79 possessions tomorrow, this means the expected total is <165.

Nice writeup but you are talking about Phoenix! They don't care about statistics and will run and gun again. Total > 181

RoagBettor · 09-25-09, 05:33 AM

The 2 games played in Phoenix this year were low-scoring (for Phoenix). However, the first one was in June, and the last one was on 9/13 when Diana Taurasi was out.

No one can set the pace against Phoenix, and their coach has stated multiple times they're going to run and gun. Lisa Leslie couldn't even stand up with 5 minutes left in the last game.

The only way this goes under is if LA shoots 30% or less from the field, and that won't happen because of their size advantage and the 35 layups they're going to get.

Emily_Haines · 09-25-09, 06:11 AM

LOL, Yeah under 210

RoagBettor · 09-25-09, 06:29 AM

The o/u just went to 181.5 on Bookmaker

Pin Fish · 09-25-09, 07:58 AM

Well, how long was DT on the bench for in game one................not going to happen in this game .............that means.................

...........................

Reload · 09-25-09, 08:36 AM

Over gets my call

BL · 09-25-09, 08:42 AM

over

Wilforth · 09-25-09, 01:48 PM

I think between Pho RL and the Over, something will screw up tonight. I don't know which.

RobbReport · 09-25-09, 01:54 PM

commentator said last game, in order for sparks to have a chance in that game they would need to put up 80.

chubber911 · 09-25-09, 02:57 PM

Phoenix has #1 offense, Phoenix also allows more pts than an other team. It's not too hard to put up 80 pts against Phoenix, considering they allow an average of 89 pts per game. LA will never win trying to out shoot Phoenix. LA is second last in the league in 3pters allowed, and Phoenix is first in the league for 3pters made, so if LA thinks they can walk into Phoenix's house and just trade baskets all night then yes this game goes over and LA gets made an example of. It's more than just a matter of putting up points for LA, they need to slow Phoenix.

Phoenix was shooting 46.0% for FGs for the season, and 38.7% for 3pts.
On Wednesday they shot 49.3% for FGs, and 46.7% for 3pts.

LA was shooting 43.0% for FGs for the season, and 29.7% for 3pts.
On Wednesday they shot 47.4% for FGs, and 38.5% for 3pts.

This gives me the impression that Wednesday was not an example of how every game will score, but instead some positive variance.

62% of bettors are on O, 38% are on U, and yet the line is the same now as it was at open. Bigger bets are being put on the under by more confident bettors.

No bet is ever a lock, but I just can't find substantial information suggesting that betting over tonight seem profitable in the long run. Obviously if the game goes over I'll look like a tool, but I've put a lot more effort into capping this than looking at the last 5 box scores and firmly believe I am right in these spots more often than not. Best of luck, everyone.

RoagBettor · 09-25-09, 03:27 PM

Do you think betting the under is a better bet, or merely that the game should go under?

I've followed Phoenix all year long. If someone would have bet the over in every game, and nothing else, you'd have made tens of thousands of dollars. The % is well over 60%.

oiler · 09-25-09, 03:33 PM

Originally posted by RoagBettor

Do you think betting the under is a better bet, or merely that the game should go under?

I've followed Phoenix all year long. If someone would have bet the over in every game, and nothing else, you'd have made tens of thousands of dollars. The % is well over 60%.

it gonna take overtime for it to get that high and i wouldnt put that pass them

Domestic · 09-25-09, 03:42 PM

Don't forget that if LA can put up a slightly better fight than last time we may well have a scenario in the final quarter where there will be a tonne of intentional fouls and desperate three three shot attempts to level the margin. I am not sure if I will make a play on this but if I was I would go over.

chubber911 · 09-25-09, 04:04 PM

Originally posted by RoagBettor

Do you think betting the under is a better bet, or merely that the game should go under?

Better bet

I've followed Phoenix all year long. If someone would have bet the over in every game, and nothing else, you'd have made tens of thousands of dollars. The % is well over 60%.

One season in WNBA is a small sample size, and I don't know how wise it is to bet a certain way in this sport just by following ATS or OU trending. Were there any teams that hit >60% unders? Any teams that went >60% or <40% ATS?

RoagBettor · 09-25-09, 04:18 PM

Chub, I don't think any other team was close to Phoenix's %, whether it was over or under. I only base that on my own personal knowledge of studying the lines for just about every game all season long. It would be an interesting exercise but I don't have the time.

Good luck if you're playing the under. I have the over 173 in my teaser, I'm comfortable with that.

hels · 09-25-09, 07:23 PM

I know season to season changes quite a bit in ncaa but mizz won 69-17 last year. Score will probably be about 69-31 today

tullamore21 · 09-25-09, 08:42 PM

I must admit that chubber spent his time and analysed the statistics in a logical way.
You are right in your spots , but it seems that you expect a close game.
LA didn't play the way you describe at home, why do you think they will do it tonight?
they didn't stop the high tempo and transition game. they ran a lot, following Mercury's speed. that was wrong and i agree with you, that the last game's numbers don't tell the truth of the LA scoring ability, but the didn't play in a more common and logical way in their homecourt.
They need to low the total in order to win, but not in PHOENIX. i cannot say that that would be an over game, i didn't bet on that, but if a had to, then OVER is the pick.
Anyway, nice job m8.

RoagBettor · 09-25-09, 10:03 PM

The under 181 is looking good. Oh well.

chubber911 · 09-25-09, 11:15 PM

Not only did I say under 181, I said under 165. Final score 87-76.

SportsTerminator · 09-26-09, 12:00 AM

It's simple if LA wins it's going under if Phoenix wins it's going over.

oda11 · 09-26-09, 12:03 AM

WOW, nice call chubber!

Reload · 09-26-09, 08:46 AM

Nice call, chubber!

Any thoughts on today's Game 3's?

chubber911 · 09-26-09, 03:34 PM

Tonight I'm playing Indiana -3.5, this game will not be close like last night.

Statistically, betting Phoenix ATS tonight seems like a good wager. But my confidence level in this team is completely shot, so I don't want to put money on their side. Funny enough, being less confident in Phoenix covering tonight makes me more confident that this game goes under.

Maybe it seems like I'm looking for trouble, but with the LA/PHO line at 179 there's just so much value in betting the under again. I got the score for this game averaging <170. I'm not as confident in tonight's bet as I was in last night's. But that doesn't mean I don't think it's a good bet.

RoagBettor · 09-26-09, 03:45 PM

Detroit ML is my play. I don't see how Indiana can beat them tonight, Detroit has too much experience and depth.

Domestic · 09-26-09, 05:22 PM

Originally posted by RoagBettor

Detroit ML is my play. I don't see how Indiana can beat them tonight, Detroit has too much experience and depth.

I think this is the best bet as far as today's WNBA is concerned.

RoagBettor · 09-26-09, 08:15 PM

Originally posted by chubber911

Tonight I'm playing Indiana -3.5, this game will not be close like last night.

Statistically, betting Phoenix ATS tonight seems like a good wager. But my confidence level in this team is completely shot, so I don't want to put money on their side. Funny enough, being less confident in Phoenix covering tonight makes me more confident that this game goes under.

Maybe it seems like I'm looking for trouble, but with the LA/PHO line at 179 there's just so much value in betting the under again. I got the score for this game averaging <170. I'm not as confident in tonight's bet as I was in last night's. But that doesn't mean I don't think it's a good bet.

RoagBettor · 09-26-09, 08:16 PM

Indiana did it. I didn't think they could.

Congrats to the Fever backers and great call chubber.

chubber911 · 09-26-09, 08:18 PM

That one was a nail-biter. Could've gone either way in the last 30 seconds.

Domestic · 09-26-09, 09:29 PM

Well done again chubber.

RoagBettor · 09-26-09, 09:34 PM

LA shot their load last night. 7 pts in the 1Q. I knew they'd be exhausted today.

Domestic · 09-26-09, 09:35 PM

Under looking good unless of course overtime.
Glad I got on the under.

chubber911 · 09-26-09, 10:18 PM

Thank you LA for shooting 7-29 from the field.