“Sparks and Storm to blow over 138 ½ total in deciding Game 3 on ESPN2”
by "Reload" Joe Freda
If you need a break from the NFL today, flip over to ESPN2 and check out the LA Sparks and Seattle Storm meeting in a deciding Game 3 today at the Key Arena. This battle between two former WNBA championship teams will have the winner will moving on to the West conference finals next week and the loser packing it in. Although these are two of the top defensive squads in the league, today’s game will have both squads pulling out all the shots and more points on the board than usual.
The Storm hung onto their playoff lives this season with a big comeback in Game 2 of this series on Friday night. At halftime, the Sparks had a nine point lead and with the dominance LA showed in Game 1, the series felt wrapped up by them at that point. But the Storm roared back holding LA to only 12 points in the third quarter and outscore the Sparks by ten there. Three point shots came up big for Seattle as the team went 8 for 13 beyond the arch, including Sue Bird looking more like Larry Bird going 4 for 6 there.
In the playoffs so far, we have seen some teams truly turn it up a notch when they looked to be all but finished off with Seattle’s comeback just one example of that. The Detroit Shock were being humiliated on their home floor in Game 1 of their series this week by the Atlanta Dream, and they found ways to shut them down in the second half going on a nearly 20 point unanswered run. In the other East conference semifinal series, the Indiana Fever had their share of problems with the Washington Mystics in both Game 1 and Game 2 of that series, but brought their “A game” in the fourth quarter Wednesday and Friday to come out on top. This all shows how playoff basketball is completely different from the regular season and how teams that focus on coming back in the current game rather than looking ahead come out on top.
Sunday’s matchup between the Sparks and Storm will be no different – bringing lots of action and drama to the court. With it being an afternoon spot against Sunday’s NFL card, it seems obvious a lot of viewers will miss out on what could be a truly classic showdown. The afternoon spot also puts both teams in an unusual situation of having played late night games on the west coast Wednesday and Friday night, but now having a 2pm PT tip today with only a day of rest.
Although I took the under in Game 1 of this series and cashed with it, the defense of both squads showed itself getting softer in Game 2 and I feel we could see an even looser battle in Game 3. Some may see an afternoon spot like this as meaning a chance of less shots going in the baskets, but I see it as the normally tough defense from both squads a little lessened up than usual. You may see more steals and fast break points than usual in a case like this, and perhaps some easier points in the paint.
I also feel that a deciding Game 3 would be more likely to have extra late fouling at the end of it if one team falls behind by seven or so points in the last couple of minutes. When the season of both teams is on the line, it increases the desperation of whichever squad is losing when that fourth quarter starts. If the total was a higher one such as what we see in Phoenix Mercury games, then late fouling is only a small part of that equation – but with a total as low as 138 ½, anyone taking the under could have to really hold their breath down the stretch.
The absence of Lauren Jackson from the Storm is one reason I felt that Game 1 of the series would go under the total and that the series would be more lower scoring than most would think. After all, both the Sparks and Storm had some of the lowest scoring offense in the league this season and taking the Storm’s leading scorer out of the lineup would mean even less scoring to me. But in Game 2, the rest of Seattle’s lineup found themselves picking up the slack from Jackson not being present, and it could continue today as momentum has shifted Seattle’s way.
With Bird leading the WNBA in assists per game this season, it will be up to her and the Storm’s Tanisha Wright to pass the ball effectively. Wright had an impressive nine assists against the Sparks on Friday night and we saw the amount of assists from both squads increase that evening in Game 2 compared to Game 1. As a series goes on, adjustments end up getting made by both teams and I would expect both today to wear their opponents out by finding someone open for a clean look at the hoop.
Points in the paint also increased in Game 2 compared to Game 1 with a combined 62 from both squads there on Friday at the Key Arena compared to Wednesday’s 40 at the Staples Center. The defense of the Sparks has given up more baskets away from home this season with an average of 76 points allowed when on the road. Additionally, the scoring of Seattle has been higher at home this season than on the road with an average of 79 points per game when hosting opponents. This all shows how a change in venue within a series can cause some games to have a total-lly different flow than when the same two teams met just a few nights before.
The total of 138 ½ has not moved since it opened yesterday at CRIS and Pinnacle Sports. They have decided to keep the number very close to what it closed at in both series matchups so far. I feel that it should have been made a couple of points higher for the kind of factors I have brought up, but it is not surprising to see bookmakers not want to take the risk of showing much of an opinion here when they can draw equal action on this total and just concentrate on the NFL today which will have much bigger wagers coming their way.
The Sparks have been bringing in some action as a side pushing down the 1 ½ points they were getting when the point spread opened and are now down to a pick’em at press time. In Game 2, I took the Sparks feeling that 2 ½ points was some good value and they held on for the cover – but am a little more hesitant today in backing either team. LA would be my choice here in Game 3 if I had to take a side since it does seem tough for Seattle to pull out two victories in a row without Lauren Jackson against a talented Sparks lineup featuring Lisa Leslie and Candace Parker. However, the wind could be a little out of LA’s sails today knowing that they had the Storm on the ropes Friday night with a sizeable halftime lead and could have blown their season out to sea.
Instead, the Sparks now have to take the court today for what will seem like 40 minutes of overtime to them and they could fall solely due to the momentum, energy, and adrenaline of the Storm. For these reasons, I am passing on a side here since it is a tough call and have focused on the total - going with the over 138 ½ in today’s deciding game.
West playoffs continue with another Game 3 coming on Monday
In the other conference semifinal series out west, the San Antonio Silver Stars and Phoenix Mercury will play a Game 3 rubber match on Monday night to decide who will face the winner of today’s Sparks-Storm showdown in the conference finals. San Antonio pulled out a one point victory at home over Phoenix in Game 1 on Thursday and the Mercury won big in Saturday’s rematch on their home floor to force a Game 3.
If Monday Night Football ends up not treating you well and you are on the chase at halftime, save some of that bankroll for this matchup scheduled to tip at 10pm ET on ESPN2. I will be back tomorrow with a preview of it after reviewing the lines when they come out today. Until then, enjoy your Sunday and good luck with all your wagers.
by "Reload" Joe Freda
If you need a break from the NFL today, flip over to ESPN2 and check out the LA Sparks and Seattle Storm meeting in a deciding Game 3 today at the Key Arena. This battle between two former WNBA championship teams will have the winner will moving on to the West conference finals next week and the loser packing it in. Although these are two of the top defensive squads in the league, today’s game will have both squads pulling out all the shots and more points on the board than usual.
The Storm hung onto their playoff lives this season with a big comeback in Game 2 of this series on Friday night. At halftime, the Sparks had a nine point lead and with the dominance LA showed in Game 1, the series felt wrapped up by them at that point. But the Storm roared back holding LA to only 12 points in the third quarter and outscore the Sparks by ten there. Three point shots came up big for Seattle as the team went 8 for 13 beyond the arch, including Sue Bird looking more like Larry Bird going 4 for 6 there.
In the playoffs so far, we have seen some teams truly turn it up a notch when they looked to be all but finished off with Seattle’s comeback just one example of that. The Detroit Shock were being humiliated on their home floor in Game 1 of their series this week by the Atlanta Dream, and they found ways to shut them down in the second half going on a nearly 20 point unanswered run. In the other East conference semifinal series, the Indiana Fever had their share of problems with the Washington Mystics in both Game 1 and Game 2 of that series, but brought their “A game” in the fourth quarter Wednesday and Friday to come out on top. This all shows how playoff basketball is completely different from the regular season and how teams that focus on coming back in the current game rather than looking ahead come out on top.
Sunday’s matchup between the Sparks and Storm will be no different – bringing lots of action and drama to the court. With it being an afternoon spot against Sunday’s NFL card, it seems obvious a lot of viewers will miss out on what could be a truly classic showdown. The afternoon spot also puts both teams in an unusual situation of having played late night games on the west coast Wednesday and Friday night, but now having a 2pm PT tip today with only a day of rest.
Although I took the under in Game 1 of this series and cashed with it, the defense of both squads showed itself getting softer in Game 2 and I feel we could see an even looser battle in Game 3. Some may see an afternoon spot like this as meaning a chance of less shots going in the baskets, but I see it as the normally tough defense from both squads a little lessened up than usual. You may see more steals and fast break points than usual in a case like this, and perhaps some easier points in the paint.
I also feel that a deciding Game 3 would be more likely to have extra late fouling at the end of it if one team falls behind by seven or so points in the last couple of minutes. When the season of both teams is on the line, it increases the desperation of whichever squad is losing when that fourth quarter starts. If the total was a higher one such as what we see in Phoenix Mercury games, then late fouling is only a small part of that equation – but with a total as low as 138 ½, anyone taking the under could have to really hold their breath down the stretch.
The absence of Lauren Jackson from the Storm is one reason I felt that Game 1 of the series would go under the total and that the series would be more lower scoring than most would think. After all, both the Sparks and Storm had some of the lowest scoring offense in the league this season and taking the Storm’s leading scorer out of the lineup would mean even less scoring to me. But in Game 2, the rest of Seattle’s lineup found themselves picking up the slack from Jackson not being present, and it could continue today as momentum has shifted Seattle’s way.
With Bird leading the WNBA in assists per game this season, it will be up to her and the Storm’s Tanisha Wright to pass the ball effectively. Wright had an impressive nine assists against the Sparks on Friday night and we saw the amount of assists from both squads increase that evening in Game 2 compared to Game 1. As a series goes on, adjustments end up getting made by both teams and I would expect both today to wear their opponents out by finding someone open for a clean look at the hoop.
Points in the paint also increased in Game 2 compared to Game 1 with a combined 62 from both squads there on Friday at the Key Arena compared to Wednesday’s 40 at the Staples Center. The defense of the Sparks has given up more baskets away from home this season with an average of 76 points allowed when on the road. Additionally, the scoring of Seattle has been higher at home this season than on the road with an average of 79 points per game when hosting opponents. This all shows how a change in venue within a series can cause some games to have a total-lly different flow than when the same two teams met just a few nights before.
The total of 138 ½ has not moved since it opened yesterday at CRIS and Pinnacle Sports. They have decided to keep the number very close to what it closed at in both series matchups so far. I feel that it should have been made a couple of points higher for the kind of factors I have brought up, but it is not surprising to see bookmakers not want to take the risk of showing much of an opinion here when they can draw equal action on this total and just concentrate on the NFL today which will have much bigger wagers coming their way.
The Sparks have been bringing in some action as a side pushing down the 1 ½ points they were getting when the point spread opened and are now down to a pick’em at press time. In Game 2, I took the Sparks feeling that 2 ½ points was some good value and they held on for the cover – but am a little more hesitant today in backing either team. LA would be my choice here in Game 3 if I had to take a side since it does seem tough for Seattle to pull out two victories in a row without Lauren Jackson against a talented Sparks lineup featuring Lisa Leslie and Candace Parker. However, the wind could be a little out of LA’s sails today knowing that they had the Storm on the ropes Friday night with a sizeable halftime lead and could have blown their season out to sea.
Instead, the Sparks now have to take the court today for what will seem like 40 minutes of overtime to them and they could fall solely due to the momentum, energy, and adrenaline of the Storm. For these reasons, I am passing on a side here since it is a tough call and have focused on the total - going with the over 138 ½ in today’s deciding game.
West playoffs continue with another Game 3 coming on Monday
In the other conference semifinal series out west, the San Antonio Silver Stars and Phoenix Mercury will play a Game 3 rubber match on Monday night to decide who will face the winner of today’s Sparks-Storm showdown in the conference finals. San Antonio pulled out a one point victory at home over Phoenix in Game 1 on Thursday and the Mercury won big in Saturday’s rematch on their home floor to force a Game 3.
If Monday Night Football ends up not treating you well and you are on the chase at halftime, save some of that bankroll for this matchup scheduled to tip at 10pm ET on ESPN2. I will be back tomorrow with a preview of it after reviewing the lines when they come out today. Until then, enjoy your Sunday and good luck with all your wagers.
