Value with Atlanta at home tonight

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  • The HG
    SBR MVP
    • 11-01-06
    • 3566

    #1
    Value with Atlanta at home tonight
    Houston is a tough team in general, no doubt, and a good road team to boot. But Atlanta has shown flashes of competence of late, and getting them in the +175 range at home has good value.

    This is a good example of a game where the market in general is skittish about putting money on such a crappy team as Atlanta, and that is what maintains value in these kids of situations (the same sorts of things happen in baseball as well, where the worst teams in the league often have the best returns at home of any team in the league). But Atlanta is at home, and Houston is not an elite team. A line this big has value.
  • goldengoat
    SBR MVP
    • 11-25-05
    • 3239

    #2
    props for thowing out a ML dog play

    i look at ATL and see joe johnson and a bunch of scrubs

    HOU much better IMO even without Yao

    BUT i see TMac has a little bit of a goin pull and listed as probable which could be a difference maker if he aggravates it more

    mutombo don't impress me much at center but as long as he rebounds well and somewhat patrols the paint i think thats all you can ask

    i can see your perspective here but I am no playing
    Comment
    • goldengoat
      SBR MVP
      • 11-25-05
      • 3239

      #3
      good call

      $$$ for you
      Comment
      • The HG
        SBR MVP
        • 11-01-06
        • 3566

        #4
        Thanks GG, I agree with you that ATL is Johnson and a bunch of scrubs, and that Hou is significantly better than ATL even without Yao. But the eternal question is, where is the value? And here I don't think Hou's superiority over ATL's scrubbiness merited a 60+% likelihood of getting a road win. As a general rule of thumb, only elite teams in the NBA deserve to be road faves of as great a margin as Houston was here (see the Phoe/Minn game tonight as an example). Sure Houston could have won by 5, but 50% of the time? And they could easily have won outright, but 62% of the time? That's a tall order to fill, and one that in general should usually only be granted to the handful of elites in the league each year (Phoe, Dal, Sant).
        Comment
        • Jay Edgar
          SBR MVP
          • 03-08-06
          • 1576

          #5
          Those are the best ones to win. When you know you're doing the right thing.

          Nice going.
          Comment
          • bigboydan
            SBR Aristocracy
            • 08-10-05
            • 55420

            #6
            Very nice hit there for you GanchrowHG
            Comment
            • onlooker
              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
              • 08-10-05
              • 36572

              #7
              Good job Ganch. I had the Hawks plus the points in this one.
              Comment
              • Checkerboard
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 05-15-06
                • 7799

                #8
                Way to go Ganchrow HG; thanks for posting this.
                Comment
                • babaoriley
                  SBR MVP
                  • 12-11-06
                  • 2316

                  #9
                  Nice call and good explanation. Congrats.
                  Comment
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