Dream -4½ as sun sets on regular season with home finale against Connecticut
Friday, September 11, 2009
By: "Reload" Joe Freda | reload.mysbrforum.com
The tightest playoff race ever in the WNBA is coming to an end as the Connecticut Sun orbit south to face the Atlanta Dream on Friday night at Philips Arena.
A win for Atlanta tonight would clinch playoff berth for them in the East and finish up what has been a dream season for them. With the Sun in fifth place and just a half-game back of the fourth place Chicago Sky, they are also looking for a win to stay in the playoff hunt. This handicapper is going with the home chalk Dream to get their 12th win of the season at Philips Arena and all but end Connecticut’s chances for the playoffs.
Although WNBA experts felt the Dream would be improved this season thanks to some new additions in their lineup, no one saw a second place finish in the competitive East as a possibility back in June. The playoff dream for Atlanta will become reality if they are victorious on Friday night at home and look to have the edge in doing so with a solid 11-5 record when hosting opponents this season.
The Sun recently struggled on a west coast road trip going 0-4 there and it set up the chances of them missing the playoffs unless a big rally could happen for them in their final few games of the season. A rally started to take shape a week ago when Connecticut defeated the New York Liberty at home in overtime. This left the Sun with two more games on the schedule and a chance to get back in the hunt if the right help happened with their conference opposition. So far, they have not gotten much assistance as both Chicago and Detroit have been holding their own with the Washington Mystics still tied with the Sun for fifth place as well.
The Sun and Dream have met twice already this season with tonight being a deciding rubber match. Each team has been victorious on their own home floors and the home court advantage will again be the difference with both teams coming into this one motivated for victory.
Even with re-surging star Chamique Holdsclaw on the shelf for the last seven games, the Dream have still strung together some wins thanks to the rest of the team stepping up. Atlanta has had the best offense in the East this season putting up an average of 85 points a game, and this includes 88 points a game when playing at home. In their most recent home game, the Dream scored 103 points against the Sacramento Monarchs and they were led by 30 points from top scorer Iziane Castro Marques.
Marques also shined on a recent road trip for the Dream as she hung 27 points on the LA Sparks at the Staples Center leading the Dream to a victory against one of the league’s best defenses. Even with a respectable 42% shooting percentage, Marques takes a back seat to the Dream’s Erika DeSouza and Sancho Lyttle who are among the league’s top five with 53% and 50%, respectively.
DeSouza has also been the East’s leading rebounder in the WNBA averaging nine per game and she owned the Sun back in July with 17 rebounds the last time that the teams tipped off in Atlanta. I look for her to again dominate in the middle tonight against the Sun’s Sandrine Gruda as DeSouza has clearly been the better of the two budding international stars this season.
Lyttle also remains an all-around weapon as she was on the Houston Comets before they folded. She has averaged over two steals a game this season making her fifth in the league there, and creating turnovers for the Sun will result in some fast break points on the board for the Dream tonight.
The bench of the Dream will also give an edge down the stretch tonight to them as WNBA veteran Michelle Snow is ready to put in minutes when DeSouza needs a break. Snow was another pickup for the Dream from the Comets this season and just put in a season high of 17 points in the Dream’s most recent game when on the road in Phoenix. Look for her to give the Sun some problems when utilized tonight as she led the Dream in rebounds off the bench back in July when last playing Connecticut.
Pinnacle Sports opened the line for tonight’s game favoring the Dream by 4 points and I feel the number is too low here. The early steam agreed with me pushing it up to 4 ½ at most books and I feel it could go even higher by tip time. Although the Dream are clearly worth being favored in tonight’s matchup, the “must win” aspect to the game for Connecticut is probably keeping the line a little lower than it normally should have been.
With the Sun coming into tonight off a victory and the Dream entering this matchup off a loss, this also makes the value adjust a little on the spread. Atlanta’s loss came out in Phoenix and was certainly excusable given that it was the last game of a successful road trip and they were facing a revenge-minded Mercury team who were embarrassed against the Dream earlier in the season. Facing the Sun tonight at home after a lot of rest is a big drop in class compared to that spot against Phoenix, and I especially look for the Dream to run away with this one since it is their last regular season home game – as well as being “Fan Appreciation Night” with a victory securing playoff berth.
Get your reloads in at your favorite SBR top-rated sportsbook and lay the points with the Atlanta Dream for a Friday night payday to build your football bankroll for the weekend. I will be back next week when the WNBA playoffs start and look forward to some competitive matchups there. Good luck until then.
Friday, September 11, 2009
By: "Reload" Joe Freda | reload.mysbrforum.com
The tightest playoff race ever in the WNBA is coming to an end as the Connecticut Sun orbit south to face the Atlanta Dream on Friday night at Philips Arena.
A win for Atlanta tonight would clinch playoff berth for them in the East and finish up what has been a dream season for them. With the Sun in fifth place and just a half-game back of the fourth place Chicago Sky, they are also looking for a win to stay in the playoff hunt. This handicapper is going with the home chalk Dream to get their 12th win of the season at Philips Arena and all but end Connecticut’s chances for the playoffs.
Although WNBA experts felt the Dream would be improved this season thanks to some new additions in their lineup, no one saw a second place finish in the competitive East as a possibility back in June. The playoff dream for Atlanta will become reality if they are victorious on Friday night at home and look to have the edge in doing so with a solid 11-5 record when hosting opponents this season.The Sun recently struggled on a west coast road trip going 0-4 there and it set up the chances of them missing the playoffs unless a big rally could happen for them in their final few games of the season. A rally started to take shape a week ago when Connecticut defeated the New York Liberty at home in overtime. This left the Sun with two more games on the schedule and a chance to get back in the hunt if the right help happened with their conference opposition. So far, they have not gotten much assistance as both Chicago and Detroit have been holding their own with the Washington Mystics still tied with the Sun for fifth place as well.
The Sun and Dream have met twice already this season with tonight being a deciding rubber match. Each team has been victorious on their own home floors and the home court advantage will again be the difference with both teams coming into this one motivated for victory.
Even with re-surging star Chamique Holdsclaw on the shelf for the last seven games, the Dream have still strung together some wins thanks to the rest of the team stepping up. Atlanta has had the best offense in the East this season putting up an average of 85 points a game, and this includes 88 points a game when playing at home. In their most recent home game, the Dream scored 103 points against the Sacramento Monarchs and they were led by 30 points from top scorer Iziane Castro Marques.
Marques also shined on a recent road trip for the Dream as she hung 27 points on the LA Sparks at the Staples Center leading the Dream to a victory against one of the league’s best defenses. Even with a respectable 42% shooting percentage, Marques takes a back seat to the Dream’s Erika DeSouza and Sancho Lyttle who are among the league’s top five with 53% and 50%, respectively.
DeSouza has also been the East’s leading rebounder in the WNBA averaging nine per game and she owned the Sun back in July with 17 rebounds the last time that the teams tipped off in Atlanta. I look for her to again dominate in the middle tonight against the Sun’s Sandrine Gruda as DeSouza has clearly been the better of the two budding international stars this season.
Lyttle also remains an all-around weapon as she was on the Houston Comets before they folded. She has averaged over two steals a game this season making her fifth in the league there, and creating turnovers for the Sun will result in some fast break points on the board for the Dream tonight.
The bench of the Dream will also give an edge down the stretch tonight to them as WNBA veteran Michelle Snow is ready to put in minutes when DeSouza needs a break. Snow was another pickup for the Dream from the Comets this season and just put in a season high of 17 points in the Dream’s most recent game when on the road in Phoenix. Look for her to give the Sun some problems when utilized tonight as she led the Dream in rebounds off the bench back in July when last playing Connecticut.
Pinnacle Sports opened the line for tonight’s game favoring the Dream by 4 points and I feel the number is too low here. The early steam agreed with me pushing it up to 4 ½ at most books and I feel it could go even higher by tip time. Although the Dream are clearly worth being favored in tonight’s matchup, the “must win” aspect to the game for Connecticut is probably keeping the line a little lower than it normally should have been.
With the Sun coming into tonight off a victory and the Dream entering this matchup off a loss, this also makes the value adjust a little on the spread. Atlanta’s loss came out in Phoenix and was certainly excusable given that it was the last game of a successful road trip and they were facing a revenge-minded Mercury team who were embarrassed against the Dream earlier in the season. Facing the Sun tonight at home after a lot of rest is a big drop in class compared to that spot against Phoenix, and I especially look for the Dream to run away with this one since it is their last regular season home game – as well as being “Fan Appreciation Night” with a victory securing playoff berth.
Get your reloads in at your favorite SBR top-rated sportsbook and lay the points with the Atlanta Dream for a Friday night payday to build your football bankroll for the weekend. I will be back next week when the WNBA playoffs start and look forward to some competitive matchups there. Good luck until then.
Same side here! GO ATLANTA !