Shock -2 look for payback hosting cooled-off Indiana Fever (and other Friday plays)

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  • Reload
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 03-23-08
    • 12250

    #1
    Shock -2 look for payback hosting cooled-off Indiana Fever (and other Friday plays)
    Shock -2 look for payback hosting cooled-off Indiana Fever

    Friday, September 4, 2009
    By: "Reload" Joe Freda | reload.mysbrforum.com
    The Detroit Shock have lost all three matchups this season to the Indiana Fever and will be in revenge mode on Friday night at The Palace of Auburn Hills.

    While Indiana continues leading the Eastern conference, they have started to dog it down the stretch losing four of their last five while Detroit has won five out of six looking to gain a playoff berth. With these teams in opposite directions, this handicapper feels the Shock will look to win big at home and cover the low number.




    The Shock and Fever have been like Jekyll and Hyde as both have performed opposite of one another throughout the year. Detroit struggled early in the season and left everyone wondering if the defending WNBA champions would regain enough focus to still make the playoffs in an Eastern conference that has been a catfight night after night. Meanwhile, Indiana rolled all over most of the league this season but has hit the wall in the past two weeks and is in jeopardy of losing their best overall record.


    The Fever have struggled in the past to get by the Shock come playoff time and finally looked to have the upper hand this year winning all three games against them. I feel the Shock will bring their biggest “A game” yet this season tonight and look to make a statement against the Fever for both revenge, as well as sending a message before the playoffs start that they are still the champs until knocked off.


    Indiana comes into tonight’s game having lost two home games in a row against the Sacramento Monarchs who have the WNBA’s worst record and the Phoenix Mercury who were in a very vulnerable spot on Wednesday when visiting the Conseco Fieldhouse. Although Katie Douglas of the Fever missed Wednesday night’s game, it seems clear that Indiana could be losing a step defensively and the Shock should find ways of taking advantage tonight. The Fever have had the top defense in the league this season giving up only 73 points a game but have allowed an average of 78 points a game in their last five matchups thanks to having 109 hung on them by Phoenix.


    The Shock come into tonight off of a thrilling home win against the Mercury on Tuesday where they put up 101 points on the scoreboard. It took some catching up in the fourth quarter by the Shock and the victory was able to happen even with the Shock getting outrebounded by Phoenix. Cheryl Ford has regained some of her championship form as of late for Detroit pulling in 11 rebounds and two games ago took in a season-high 12 against the Atlanta Dream. She also scored a season-high of 22 points on Tuesday and should be able to hit double figures against Indiana tonight after struggling in the first three matchups against the Fever this season.


    In addition to Ford’s late-season surge, Deanna Nolan has been lighting things up for the Shock as of late as well. Last week, Nolan put in a season-high of 34 points against the San Antonio Silver Stars and hung 29 on the Atlanta Dream two nights before that effort. Even with Katie Smith being out for the Shock over the last two games, Nolan has been right there to pick up the slack and should be all over the Fever tonight.


    Nikki Teasley could be a secret weapon tonight for the Shock as her three point shooting has been hitting at a good clip this season when called on for it. Teasley started this year in Atlanta but was added to the Shock’s lineup this month. She has been in the starting lineup for the Shock in their last two games and could be that added dimension to make a difference tonight compared to the Shock’s first three disappointing games against the Fever this year.


    Detroit also has shown to have a more effective bench down the stretch in games lately than the Fever have been demonstrating, and I would especially look for Kara Braxton to possible have a big night for the Shock. Braxton pulled in 10 rebounds against the Fever earlier this month and could be a big contributor when Detroit’s other big rebounders can rest up for the fourth quarter.


    The line opened for this game favoring the Shock by 2½ and has gone down to 2 at some books. It is understandable for some bettors here to like the Fever since it could seem unlikely for them to lose a third game in a row. However, I feel this will be a tougher spot for Indiana than the games they have lost recently as they face a Detroit team not only looking for revenge but also to stay alive for a playoff spot. With the East as competitive as it is, a loss on any given night can shake a team several spots down in the standings. Lay the points with the Shock for a Friday payday.

    More home cooking on Friday night
    With three other games on the WNBA board Friday, other home teams look to have the edge over visiting squads at the betting windows.


    The Connecticut Sun (-4½) will host the New York Liberty and I look for the Sun to come up big here after struggling big time on their west coast road trip. They get a drop in class for an opponent compare to most of that road trip, and need a win to get back into the playoff picture.


    In Chicago, the Sky (-4) have the Washington Mystics visiting them. Home court has made the difference among the series between these teams this season as the hosting team has won each of the three prior meetings. The Sky have a 10-4 home record and I look for them to get a cover tonight despite losing four of their last five games, as well as not having star center Sylvia Fowles in the lineup.


    Out west, the Sacramento Monarchs (+1) are a home dog to the Atlanta Dream and have tried to finish their season strong despite being out of the playoff hunt. They have won two games in a row and are in a revenge spot here against the Dream who humiliated them in Atlanta last month. Although the Dream have been impressive holding onto second place in the East, the road trip out west may catch up to being a nightmare tonight for them in Sacramento.
  • BL
    SBR MVP
    • 05-11-09
    • 4070

    #2
    I am on Shock, too. will book it right before gametime
    Comment
    • Reload
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 03-23-08
      • 12250

      #3
      Originally posted by BL
      I am on Shock, too. will book it right before gametime
      Sounds good, BL - I think waiting is best also. Good luck tonight!
      Comment
      • jcygts6
        SBR MVP
        • 04-05-09
        • 3316

        #4
        shock should take this!
        DO WORK + KROW OD
        do work! do work! do work! do work!
        od krow! od krow! od krow! od krow!
        Comment
        • fearless
          Restricted User
          • 08-14-06
          • 4950

          #5
          I'm on the Shock too.
          Comment
          • Nickelicious
            SBR MVP
            • 05-21-09
            • 2647

            #6
            Going with the Fever.
            Comment
            • SexyMit
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 10-12-06
              • 6139

              #7
              I love it when you have a write-up on a game in the wnba. Cause I have seen quite a few of them and can't remember you even winning 1 of them. Cause we have been on the opposite of everyone of them. You had Indiana at home the other night, and now going against them tonight, don't think that is a good idea, going against a team that has already beat Detroit 3 times this yr.
              If it seems to good to be true it usually is!!

              I have a natural instinct to exploit market ineffieciencies!!
              Comment
              • BL
                SBR MVP
                • 05-11-09
                • 4070

                #8
                his last big writeup lost (Indiana vs PHX). The one before cashed when he was on the Mystics against Minnesota.
                Comment
                • SexyMit
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 10-12-06
                  • 6139

                  #9
                  I remember that one cause we were on Phoenix, Yeah thats right cause we had them also. But I remember there were quite a few in a row before that, that lost. Not knocking him or talking smack just pointing out that he has the opposite of what we have most of the time!
                  If it seems to good to be true it usually is!!

                  I have a natural instinct to exploit market ineffieciencies!!
                  Comment
                  • BL
                    SBR MVP
                    • 05-11-09
                    • 4070

                    #10
                    Yes, you are right, Sexymit. I think this is only the second time I am on the same side as Reload.
                    Well, I really overlooked this game more than twice because it's quite hard to bet against Indiana after they lost 2 in a row. But i am quite confident on this play.
                    So we'll see who's on the right side later. Maybe we both will hit it. I baught the hook and played Detroit -1,5
                    Comment
                    • Wilforth
                      Restricted User
                      • 05-10-08
                      • 16309

                      #11
                      Shock -2.

                      Shock wins by 7 points!
                      Comment
                      • Nickelicious
                        SBR MVP
                        • 05-21-09
                        • 2647

                        #12
                        Originally posted by Reload
                        [B]
                        The Detroit Shock have lost all three matchups this season to the Indiana Fever and will be in revenge mode on Friday night at The Palace of Auburn Hills.

                        While Indiana continues leading the Eastern conference, they have started to dog it down the stretch losing four of their last five while Detroit has won five out of six looking to gain a playoff berth.

                        Meanwhile, Indiana rolled all over most of the league this season but has hit the wall in the past two weeks and is in jeopardy of losing their best overall record.

                        I feel the Shock will bring their biggest “A game” yet this season tonight and look to make a statement against the Fever for both revenge, as well as sending a message before the playoffs start that they are still the champs until knocked off.

                        The Fever have had the top defense in the league this season giving up only 73 points a game but have allowed an average of 78 points a game in their last five matchups thanks to having 109 hung on them by Phoenix.

                        I feel this will be a tougher spot for Indiana than the games they have lost recently as they face a Detroit team not only looking for revenge but also to stay alive for a playoff spot. With the East as competitive as it is, a loss on any given night can shake a team several spots down in the standings.
                        The key points above demand further analysis. The biggest hype seems to be about the Shock desperately trying to "stay alive for a playoff spot." What isn't mentioned is that the Fever are just as determined to keep the Shock out of the playoffs. They would much rather face the Sky or the Sun in the playoffs than the defending champions, so anything they can do to help prevent the Shock from qualifying, they are going to do.

                        There is playoff hunger on both sides of the court in this game, and the Fever have even more to gain by knocking down a foe like Detroit as Detroit does by winning this game. That's because the Fever are also driven by the chance to have home court throughout the playoffs, which is a strong motivator for them. Winning tonight's game has two key playoff benefits for the Fever, whereas the Shock only have one benefit to gain: staying alive.

                        Revenge mode is a legitimate factor. But it doesn't always prevent a superior team from sweeping an inferior one if the matchups just don't work in their favor.

                        Citing the last five games (allowing 78 ppg) while trying to say the Fever's defense is weakening is skewed. If you take out the Phoenix game, Indiana's defense is playing as well as they have all season, holding 3 of their previous 5 opponents under 70 points. Phoenix has scored 100+ points eight times this season and are tough for anyone to slow down. The Fever did hold them to 83 points (one of the Mercury's lowest point totals) the first time they met, on the Mercury's home court.

                        Of course this game could go either way, but there's plenty of reasons to believe the Fever will come out on top in this one.
                        Comment
                        • Reload
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 03-23-08
                          • 12250

                          #13
                          Glad a few of you were on board to cash here! The Reload-er nation comes through in overtime!

                          Comment
                          • Nickelicious
                            SBR MVP
                            • 05-21-09
                            • 2647

                            #14
                            Good win, reload. You were right, though it was a helluva game!
                            Comment
                            • Mriswith
                              SBR Hustler
                              • 03-20-09
                              • 76

                              #15
                              Originally posted by Wilforth
                              Shock wins by 7 points!
                              n1 one !

                              gz to the shock backers

                              rgz,
                              Mris
                              Comment
                              • SexyMit
                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                • 10-12-06
                                • 6139

                                #16
                                Good call, hope we are the same side next time!
                                If it seems to good to be true it usually is!!

                                I have a natural instinct to exploit market ineffieciencies!!
                                Comment
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